The Global Risks Report 2024

Pressing risks requiring mutual restraint often involve the proliferation and malign use of advanced and potentially destructive technologies. Restraining the use of weapons of mass destruction or restricting the incorporation of AI into lethal weapons and nuclear decision-making systems are needed to avoid the risk of inadvertent conflict escalation (Chapter 2.4: AI in charge). When it comes to global risks such as terrorism or pandemic outbreaks, it is often the weakest link that dictates the risk. Technological advances in AI mean that bio-engineered pathogens have become a reality, and a security breach of a high-containment bio-laboratory or bio-foundry, for example, is a global concern. GRPS respondents highlight Minilateral treaties and agreements and Global treaties and agreements as risk governance approaches within the category of cross-border coordination. Minilateral treaties – or agreements involving a smaller number of parties and often backed by regional financing – represent a feasible solution to many global risks faced by a fragmented world, where it is difficult to have a large number of countries endorsing the same cause.Global treaties and agreements, the result of constructive dialogue, negotiation and compromise, are fundamental to mitigating and preparing for many global risks. They enable involved parties to identify common ground and cooperate towards shared objectives. GRPS respondents recognize such treaties as the most appropriate lever to manage key geopolitical risks such as Interstate armed conflict; Geoeconomic confrontation; and Biological, chemical or nuclear hazards; as well as inherently globalized environmental risks such as Critical changes to Earth systems (Figure 3.4). Amid growing geopolitical rifts, global treaties and agreements face numerous challenges. Agreements regarding global trade and financial integration are under pressure from trade conflicts between China and the United States, Brexit and national post-COVID-19 economic recovery efforts. While there is emerging consensus on the need for a universal regulatory framework for AI to address concerns surrounding ethical standards, data privacy and potential misuse, the first steps in this arena seem to be faltering, with the EU’s landmark AI Act coming under pressure from governments 13 and technology companies14 alike. Striking a balance between fostering innovation and addressing 25 0 50 75 100Share of respondents (%)84% 79% 78% 65% 64% 64% 58% 56% 56% 55%Biological, chemical or nuclear hazards Geoeconomic confrontation Interstate armed conflict Critical change to Earth systems Terrorist attacksConcentration of strategic resources Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Adverse outcomes of frontier technologiesInvoluntary migration Erosion of human rightsTop global risks addressed by Global treaties and agreements FIGURE 3.4 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024."Which approach(es) do you expect to have the most potential for driving action on risk reduction and preparedness over thenext 10 years?" Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological NoteRespondents could select up to three responses from the following nine options: Financial instruments, National and local regulations, Minilateral treaties and agreements, Global treaties and agreements, Development assistance, corporate strategies, Research & development, Public awareness and education, Multi-stakeholder engagement.Global treaties and agreements (e.g. UNFCC, Paris, Montreal, NPT, WTO) Global Risks Report 2024 91