ethical concerns within an international framework is proving complicated, given varying perspectives and economic interests. Yet cross-border coordination remains a necessary – and, in some cases, the only – path to address the global risks that threaten human prosperity and security. Minilateral treaties and agreements may be increasingly appropriate to resolve conflict and ensure economic prosperity at a regional level; but they are unlikely to replace wider agreements in maintaining global security. Progress has been made through international collaboration in addressing climate change; but action needs to be deepened, widened and, most crucially, sped up. National representatives that attended the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) approved for the first time a roadmap for “transitioning away from fossil fuels” – but the deal stopped short of a long-demanded call for a “phaseout” of oil, coal and gas. 15 “Climate Clubs”, or coalitions of the willing,16 represent a practical path for progress given the challenges of traditional multilateralism. These coalitions of countries commit to ambitious climate goals and adopt measures to enforce compliance, while offering incentives for membership. When it comes to security, much momentum is with the private sector, where applications with dual use potential are being developed. 17 As technology evolves faster than regulation, private producers must take responsibility to not only be transparent, but to show restraint when releasing new frontier models. Conclusion 3.5 The world is undergoing multiple long-term structural transformations: the rise of AI, climate change, a shift in the geopolitical distribution of power, and demographic transitions. These structural forces are global, pervasive and charged with momentum. Against this backdrop, known and newly emerging risks need preparation and mitigation (see Figure 3.5 for the full picture of GRPS responses regarding drivers of risk reduction and preparedness). Localized strategies, breakthrough endeavours, collective actions and cross-border coordination all play a part in addressing these risks. Localized strategies, leveraging investment and regulation, are critical for reducing the impact of global risks, and both the public and private sector can play a key role in extending benefits to all. Through prioritizing the future and focusing on breakthrough research and development, the efforts of single entities can make the world a safer place. The actions of individual citizens, companies and countries – while perhaps insignificant on their own – can move the needle on global risk reduction if they reach a critical mass. Finally, cross-border coordination remains the only viable pathway for the most critical risks to human security and prosperity. Markus Spiske, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 92

The Global Risks Report 2024