Turning Challenge into Opportunity 2025

–Private sector demand: Coalitions can expand buyers’ voluntary initiatives into multi-year, multi-buyer contracts that include a floor-price, which will help suppliers’ financing efforts.117 Align CBAM with decarbonization roadmaps Producers can use the 2026-2034 period (when EU ETS credits phase out) to sequence and accelerate shifts in technology as follows: –BF/BOF retirement or relining decisions with clear carbon price visibility. –DRI-EAF conversions where renewable power and hydrogen economics work. –CCUS build-out where geological and cluster infrastructure exists. To support this, governments can publish national siting maps that overlay power, hydrogen, CO2 storage/transport and logistics to reduce developer risk.118 Streamline the critical path on permitting and grids Governments can create ways to streamline industrial permitting with statutory timelines; they can also facilitate grid interconnection milestones for projects meeting near-zero criteria. Create ways to reduce risk for hydrogen and power inputs IEA analysis indicates that reaching low electrolytic hydrogen costs is decisive for hydrogen-DRI parity.119 Government-backed contracts for difference (CfDs) on green hydrogen and renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) for near-zero steel projects can stabilize opex in early years, tapering support as markets mature. Protect the full value chain against leakage Governments can extend CBAM-like treatment or embedded-carbon criteria to downstream products (e.g. autos, appliances, machinery) so green steel signals are not diluted by finished-goods imports. This echoes suppliers’ repeated calls to “protect the whole value chain”. Conclusion Suppliers are unequivocal: the technology is advancing, but the keys to unlocking capital for low-carbon steel include definitions, demand and delivery infrastructure. Alongside these primary insights, certain policy timelines are forthcoming: the EU’s CBAM becomes financially binding in 2026, free ETS allowances decline up to 2034 and definitions for near-zero are converging under IEA’s guidance. The project pipeline remains far short of what is required for net-zero pathways by 2030, but specific levers – procurement-led markets, standardized verification, opex de-risking for hydrogen and power, streamlined permitting and value chain- wide leakage protections – can help turn intent into bankable demand.120 Turning Challenge into Opportunity: Supplier Voices from Heavy-Emitting Sectors 38