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--> --> AFN committee members express doubts about latest business plan By Myles Murphy Ashland Daily Tidings While the latest revamping of the Ashland Fiber Network business plan proved more palatable to most Ashland City Council members than previous plans, two members of the AFN Advisory Committee, and a councilor, are less than satisfied. "It's basically predicated on 15 years of non-stop growth, no new competition, no new technologies, and no economic problems along the way," AFN Advisory Committee member Russ Silbiger said. "That, to me, is unsustainable growth." Silbiger and fellow AFN Advisory Committee member Martin Levine were unable to attend the city council meeting last week where the AFN plan was presented, but they circulated e-mails to council members outlining their concerns. After the previous plan consistently fell short of goals, members of the Ashland Budget Committee - including Silbiger and Levine - called for the creation of an oversight committee to keep an eye on AFN progress. The city appointed an advisory committee made up of citizens and city staff to revise the plan. The new plan projects AFN recouping costs by 2016, rather than 2010 as predicted in the previous plan. It also figures a peak internal borrowing of $8.9 million, compared to $4.9 million in the old plan. "My take is that the report given was a step forward, but it wasn't the giant stride I'd like to have seen," Councilor John Morrison said. Morrison has been wary of AFN from the beginning, and believes the question of whether the venture will eventually pay for itself or be a burden on taxpayers indefinitely is not yet answered. "I think public utilities can work very well and I don't think it was necessarily a bad decision (to start AFN)," Morrison said. "But we need to pursue this. We don't have the basic assumptions that led to the data we've seen." Levine in his e-mail questioned the wisdom of counting on assumptions made today to pan out over a 15-year period. "The reality is that no one can accurately identify, much less quantify, the potential costs of keeping AFN technologically competitive over the next 15 years, if that is even possible," Levine wrote. "(The AFN report) completely ignores this most significant issue which you must consider in your overall evaluation of AFN. If, in the year 2016, we're still using our fiber network to watch cable TV and deliver Internet access services, then, tonight's report may be some indication of what AFN's financial picture will look like then. "But that's an incredibly big if." Councilor Don Laws agreed with Levine, but did not believe either city staff or officials were unaware of the concern. "That's something we have been concerned about from the very beginning and we were reasonably aware of these risks," Laws said. "The fact we've extended the revenue out to 15 years makes that more of a concern, but with changes in technology, there is the potential that good things could happen as well as the potential bad things could happen." "Things could happen to Charter, too," he added. Laws also said changes in leadership of a private corporation such as Charter have more of a negative impact. "Every time that happens there are slippages in their (Charter) service," Laws said. "Those kinds of things will happen with a private company much more than with the city." "The city's going to be steady." But Laws also wanted to understand the assumptions in the new plan which led to the changes in payback time and loan amounts. "It's impossible to make projections without assumptions, and I would also like to see what Russ (Silbiger) is talking about." City staff has been directed to report to the council on how the new assumptions were arrived at, but Laws said there was no specific timeline on when that might happen. Email your... Technical questions & comments to: WebMaster Daily Tidings editorial comments & questions to: Editor Visit our other Oregon Newspapers... | Albany Democrat-Herald | Ashland Daily Tidings | Corvallis Gazette-Times | | Lebanon Express | Newport News-Times | Springfield News | Cottage Grove Sentinel | Ashland Daily Tidings 1661 Siskiyou Blvd. Ashland, OR 97520 Telephone 541-482-3456 © Copyright 2001 Lee Northwest Publishing