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Deep snow could bring spring flood Would take several days of rain By JIM DAVIS Go skiing. Go snowmobiling. Enjoy the snow in the hills and mountains surrounding the Rogue Valley. But if you live near a creek, stream or river, pay close attention to the weather forecast. Snowpacks are deeper than they have been for years, and that may set the stage for spring flooding, said Stan Fox, snow hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Portland. "The potential is there," Fox said. "The bottom line is, there's lots of snow in the mountains." If the Rogue Valley experiences heavy, warm rain for several days in a row, melting snow could swell the tributaries of Southern Oregon, said Roger Gerig of the National Weather Service. "We're well aware of the problem," Gerig said. "It's something that we will be keeping a close eye on." Fox said his agency keeps daily tabs on the snowpacks for Oregon, and the whole state is seeing dramatic increases in snowpack levels. For the Rogue-Umpqua basin, the snowpack level is 171 percent of normal. Melting snow is not the potential source of flooding. The soil is so saturated that a heavy rain could cause flooding in some areas, Fox said. But larger floods usually come when snowpacks melt during heavy storms. Steve Johnson of the Ashland Ranger District of the Rogue River National Forest checked snowpack levels on and around Mount Ashland Wednesday. He said those snowpacks -- which feed into the creeks and streams of Ashland, Talent, Phoenix and Medford -- are as deep as those throughout the rest of Western Oregon. And he said snowpack levels are higher than they were during the New Year's Day flood of 1997. Russ Davidson of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said the agency is watching the situation closely and being updated on weather twice daily. The Corps controls water levels at Applegate and Lost Creek dams. The agency dumps all the lakes each winter and refills them gradually between Jan. 1 and May 1 so lakes have water for the summer. But the Corps also uses the dams to capture water to lessen the impact of flooding. Because of the deep snowpacks, the Corps has dropped the amount of water stored in reservoirs. Lost Creek is storing 15 percent less than scheduled each day; Applegate is storing about 5 percent less than scheduled. "We've taken note and we're creating a little extra space in our reservoirs," Davidson said. Gerig said weather patterns are favoring Oregon. The West is experiencing a La Nina weather pattern where most of the weather systems are coming from the west and northwest, which means cooler and drier weather. If, however, the weather turns warmer and wetter, it could mean problems. The main concern, Gerig said, will be through the end of March. "If it melts off normally without a big rain event, it (the snowpack levels) will mean nothing," Gerig said. Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 1999, Medford, Oregon USA