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Smith's decision not to run has would-be congressmen doing some deep thinking By PETER WONG MailTribune.com By PETER WONG Posted Dec. 21, 1997 at 2:00 AM Updated Jan 12, 2011 at 2:00 PM By PETER WONG Posted Dec. 21, 1997 at 2:00 AM Updated Jan 12, 2011 at 2:00 PM » Social News A Mail Tribune analysis More than a year ago, Perry Atkinson appealed to Republican delegates explaining why they should choose him, instead of Bob Smith, for the open nomination to the 2nd District congressional seat that Smith once held for 12 years. People have a choice of whether they want to bring Bob out of retirement, send him back to Washington for one term, then have him retire again and go through all of this again in two years, said Atkinson, general manager of Medford radio station KDOV, in August 1996. Or they can elect me now... a vote of 55 to 25, the delegates chose Smith, who went on to defeat Democrat Mike Dugan in November 1996. But Atkinson's scenario became reality last week as Smith announced he was returning home to Medford after one extra term as representative from the 2nd District of Southern, Central and Eastern Oregon. It opens up the whole cycle again, said Dennis Richardson of Gold Hill, the party's 2nd District chairman. All we know is that apparently, Greg Walden will be running. His reference was to Walden, a radio broadcaster from Hood River and a former state legislator, who won Smith's endorsement last week for the open Republican nomination in the May 19 primary. But one observer of Oregon politics said he thinks Atkinson, not Walden, is in the pole position for the primary if both end up running. He's in a good position because of his name recognition from previous races, said Bill Lunch, a political science professor at Oregon State University. He has an intense, committed constituency that is very important in a primary. In a straight-up race between an identified conservative candidate, particularly one such as Atkinson with good ties to the religious right, and a more moderate, secular conservative such as Walden, the religious conservative is going to win every time. But Lunch speculated back in 1994, when Smith left Congress the first time, that a candidate who mustered enough votes -- particularly east of the Cascades -- could prevail in a crowded primary. Wes Cooley, then a state senator from Central Oregon, did just that with 23 percent in a seven-candidate field for the Republican nomination. Ironically, Cooley's strategy was shaped by Walden, then a state representative and Cooley's campaign manager. Cooley edged Atkinson by 940 votes in the primary and went on to win the seat, though he and Walden parted company before the general election. But questions raised about his military record and his marriage compelled Cooley to drop out as the Republican nominee in 1996. One thing that will be different this time is that people are going to be much more concerned about who the candidates are, what their history is and what they really stand for, Richardson said. Richardson, who because of his party position is neutral in the race, said Smith's endorsement of Walden could carry political weight in the east. Smith was a state legislator from Eastern Oregon for 22 years until his election to Congress in 1982. He moved to Medford after he left Congress in 1994. He has a judgment about him that I think is very attractive, Smith said of Walden at last week's news conference. He could be a very intelligent leader in this state for quite some time, should he choose to run. Walden was appointed to Cooley's seat in the Oregon Senate when Cooley vacated it for Congress in 1995, but Walden did not seek a full term in 1996. If Walden does not run for Congress, other potential Republican candidates are state Sen. Neil Bryant of Bend, state Sen. Ted Ferrioli of John Day, and House Speaker Lynn Lundquist of Powell Butte. Senate President Brady Adams, R-Grants Pass, said he would endorse Walden or Bryant. What would cause me the most awkwardness is if both of them ran, Adams said. Then I would have to endorse both. If neither ran, then I would seriously consider looking at it. State Rep. John Watt, R-Medford, said he is pursuing a state agency directorship and would not run for the seat. Republican voters in Jackson and Josephine counties account for 38 percent of the district's total Republicans. The rest are scattered among the 18 counties east of the Cascades. The 2nd is one of only two congressional districts in Oregon with more registered Republicans (42 percent) than Democrats (36 percent) among its 383,500 voters. It also was the only one of Oregon's five districts to favor Republican Bob Dole over Democrat Bill Clinton for president in 1996. The two most recent Democratic nominees for the seat _ Jackson County Commissioner Sue Kupillas in 1994 and Deschutes County District Attorney Mike Dugan in 1996 -- each won just under 40 percent of the votes cast. Even John Kitzhaber lost it dramatically in 1994, said Peter Sage of Medford in reference to the Democratic governor, Oregon's most popular politician according to recent surveys. But Sage, a former Jackson County commissioner who has considered making his own bid for the seat in the past, said a Democrat could be a credible candidate. This seat does not belong to Bob Smith to anoint his successor, Sage said. It belongs to the people of the 2nd District. If the person Bob Smith selects for it wins the election, so be it. But we elect that person. If we define this district as consisting of cattle and trees, maybe this should be a Republican district. But I think it's a competitive district if it consists of seniors worrying about health care, taxpayers worrying about taxes, and working men and women saving for their retirement. Dugan attempted to emphasize those issues and draw support from the district's emerging urban centers in Medford and Bend, but he failed to win majorities in either in 1996. He said Friday he's interested in running for the 2nd District seat again. I've certainly always thought about it, Dugan said. This announcement just speeds up the process a little bit. I'm certainly exploring the possibilities, but I've made no decision about it. Dugan would have to pass up a fourth-term bid for district attorney if he ran this time. Kupillas is in the middle of her third term as commissioner and said last week she's unlikely to run for Congress. Jay Mullen of Medford, chairman of the Jackson County Democratic Central Committee, said wide-open races -- particularly among potentially divided Republicans -- should spur interest. This being the threshold of a new political season, this just makes it all the more interesting for us who enjoy watching the political donnybrook, Mullen said. By PETER WONG MailTribune.com By PETER WONG Posted Dec. 21, 1997 at 2:00 AM Updated Jan 12, 2011 at 2:00 PM » STAY INFORMED Email NewsLetter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. Southern Oregon Directory Featured Businesses Loading... 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