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http://www.omniture.com --> Sections Home Page Local News AP News Blogs Archives Business Classifieds Event Calendar Forums Life Opinion Obituaries Photo Gallery Readers Photo Gallery Sports Tempo Weather Road Cams Special Coverage 2006 Britt Festivals --> Shop Our Valley AutoFinder HomeFinder JobFinder Search Our Valley Special Sections Distinctly Northwest Readers' Choice Homelife Magazine Joy Magazine Oregon Golf Info Oregon Wine Info Other Publications Local Links Ashland News eSouthernOregon Newspapers In Education Personals Moving Here Movie Listings TV Listings Volunteer Customer Service Advertise With Us Media Kit Place Classified Ad Contact Us FAQ's Home Delivery Site Map --> Email Story to a Friend June 2, 2006 Is the Big One coming to Northern California? By Bill kettler Mail Tribune A major flood on the Sacramento River might easily make Hurricane Katrina's devastation look small, say two Southern Oregon men who have studied floods in California back to the Gold Rush days. Sacramento residents rowed boats through the town's streets during the floods of December 1861 and January 1862, when the city had only about 15,000 residents. The same conditions that produced that huge flood would be devastating in an era when millions of people have made their homes in the region, say Leon Hunsaker, a retired meteorologist, and Claude Curran, a retired geography professor. Their self-published book, "Lake Sacramento: Can It Happen Again?" combines weather data and first-person accounts from the winter of 1861-62 to piece together the story of what is generally acknowledged as California's biggest flood since European settlement. Levees that have been built to contain the Sacramento will probably not be able to contain a flood of the magnitude of 1861-62, says the 80-year-old Hunsaker, who was a popular TV weathercaster in Medford before he retired. "I don't think there's any question the cost will be worse than Katrina," he says, "and you and I as taxpayers will be stuck paying the bill." Based on their data, and flood sediments that have been deposited at the base of 1,000-year-old redwood trees, Hunsaker and Curran estimate that a flood of similar magnitude occurs about every 200 to 250 years. "We haven't seen a 200-year flood since then," says Curran, 67, who taught at Southern Oregon University. "Leon and I think it's just around the corner." Their book describes a series of storms that pounded the region during 52 days between Dec. 6, 1861, and Jan. 26, 1862. Warm rains from the south that saturated the soil were followed by a cold air mass from the Arctic that froze the wet ground. Cold rains from the north fell as snow in the mountains, which melted rapidly when another batch of storms from the south brought warm rain back to the gold country. "The water came off all of a sudden," says Hunsaker, who first heard of the epic flood when he worked as a meteorologist for Pacific Gas & Electric in San Francisco. He notes that contemporary accounts describe a rapid three-foot rise in the river when it was already out of its banks and had flooded hundreds of square miles. Curran says cold winter storms that produce deep snow and warm winter storms that melt the snow are familiar phenomena over much of Northern California as well as Southern Oregon. "Some years these polar outbreaks of cold air bust out farther south than we'd ever think they would go," he says. "Those strong polar outbursts are what we're looking at in terms of the flood of 1861-62." Similar patterns have brought high water to Southern Oregon, most notably in the floods of 1964 and 1997, although those floods were small compared to the storms of 1861-62, which produced prodigious stream flows over much of the Northwest. Hunsaker and Curran combed the historical record to produce estimated snow depths and stream flows during the flood. Miners' accounts of snow depths and cold temperatures provided the basis for their calculations. "I have no qualms whatsoever from the scientific point of view about what we've done," Curran says. Both Hunsaker and Curran hope their research will prompt further discussion in California about how to prepare for the flood that they are convinced will one day come, and they've distributed copies of their book to California water officials. They're also considering whether to offer it as a research paper during the 2007 conference of the Association of American Geographers in San Francisco. Curran says their work should encourage officials to strengthen levees where they are weakest, and government officials should consider building more storage reservoirs in the Sierras, especially the Auburn Dam on the American River, which was stopped for its environmental consequences. Floodplain areas should be reserved for agriculture and open space rather than being converted into housing developments. Hunsaker encourages people to look at the book and draw their own conclusions. "We've assembled all the stuff," he says. "People can examine it and decide whether they believe it or not." To obtain a copy of the book, contact Copy Quik in Grants Pass at 474-2679. Reach reporter Bill Kettler at 776-4492 or e-mail: [email protected] Advertisement s Mail Tribune Home | Local News | Sports | Business | Obituaries | Life | Opinion AP News | Archives | Site Map | Community | Classified Copyright © 1997-2006 Mail Tribune, Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Website Feedback online casinos news Home Security Systems Online Casino Reviews Fundraisers UK Homeowner Loans Casinos Canada Cord Blood Banking Entertainment Guide Texas Electric Choice Compare Electric rates in Texas Windermere Van Vleet Trunks, Footlocker Men's Clothing Debt Help