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By Vickie Aldous Mail Tribune March 01. 2015 12:01AM The new normal under climate change? Fry Family Farms co-owner Steve Fry says longer, drier springs and no-freeze falls will extend the local growing season but will also mean less available water. Mail Tribune / Bob Pennell The low-snowpack winters and smoky summers the Rogue Valley has seen over the last two years could be a preview of what's to come if predictions are right. Climate change could create winners and losers in agriculture, tourism, forestry, housing and other sectors. At Fry Family Farms, co-owner Steve Fry says warmer weather has pros and cons for growers. His family-run business produces vegetables and flowers for local farmers' markets and grocery stores. "With longer, drier springs and no-freeze falls, our season's actually extended," Fry says. But mild winters and light snowpack also mean less water to feed the valley's irrigation districts. Fry says his farms have good water rights to local creeks, but farmers with more junior water rights — who are the first to lose out during droughts — are hurt when irrigation districts have to cut back. To conserve water, Fry has installed drip-irrigation systems that feed water to plant roots and reduce evaporation. He also plants barley as a winter cover crop on parts of his land in October. It can live off winter rain without irrigation. After the barley is cut in July, Fry plants fall vegetables such as spinach, carrots, turnips and beets. Fry says early spring weather can hurt orchard owners when trees bloom too soon and are then hit by frost. Warm daytime temperatures in mid-February triggered what may turn out to be the earliest peach and pear tree bloom on record in the Rogue Valley. Orchard owners scrambled to deploy fans and other methods to warm trees during cold, frosty nights. From 1895 to 2011, average temperatures in the Northwest increased 1.3 degrees. Temperatures are predicted to climb 3.3 to 9.7 degrees by 2070 to 2099, as compared to 1970 to 1999, according to a 2014 National Climate Assessment produced by hundreds of experts guided by a federal advisory committee. "The average temperature goes up and down, but the trend over the last 100 years has been up. We are in global warming," says Medford-based National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Sandler. "Ocean levels are rising and ice is melting. Globally, there are signs warming is occurring." The question of whether the warming is caused by humans is more difficult to answer, he says. "The general consensus among a majority of scientists is that the warming is human-caused," Sandler says. "I know some people don't believe the globe is warming, but among members of the scientific community, there's no disputing the globe is warming as a whole." Sandler says the past two years of warm winters with low snowpack locally cannot be attributed to global warming. He says no specific weather event or pattern can be directly linked to climate change. He compared climate change to a baseball slugger on steroids. The player will hit more home runs over a season, but no single home run can be attributed solely to steroid use. Oregon has had milder winters than normal because of an unusually persistent ridge of high pressure that causes air to flow around us to the north, where it cools off and then pummels the Midwest and East Coast with cold temperatures and snow. Normally high pressure ridges dissipate after a few weeks. No one knows exactly why this one has stuck around for so long, Sandler says. Fortunately, a storm front this weekend is bringing much-needed rain and snow to the valley and mountains. Greg Jones, director of the division of business, communication and the environment at Southern Oregon University, also says the region's two years of back-to-back low snow years cannot be specifically blamed on climate change. "But the past two years have been the warmest on record in most of the western United States and Oregon," says Jones, who is internationally known for his research on how climate change could impact the wine industry. "Climate change models are saying our region should have more rainfall and less snowfall." One signature of climate change is that rainfall is not spread out, he notes. "We had a big event with three inches of rain in three days. That could be the future," says Jones, referring to an early February rainstorm that toppled trees and flooded parts of the valley. Ashland recorded 3.93 inches of rainfall over 48 hours — its third-highest two-day total since 1892. Similar deluges in 1964 and 1996 triggered historic floods when rain fell on snow, causing rapid melting. A lack of substantial snowpack kept the early February storm from unleashing another major flood, weather officials say. Storms flushed logs and other woody debris into Lost Creek Lake north of Shady Cove, creating the largest logjam in the lake in decades. Officials are pondering how to remove the wood before the start of waterskiing season in late May. Jones says less snow in the mountains impacts reservoirs, irrigation and agriculture. "A big issue is we need to manage water differently. Now we capture snowmelt in the summer. We may need to capture more rain in the winter and hold it," he says. A years-long effort is underway to determine whether it's cost-effective to pipe miles of irrigation canals, which lose water to evaporation and seepage. Canals can lose 50 percent of their water during delivery, according to supporters of the Water for Irrigation, Streams & Economy piping project in Jackson County. At the Mt. Ashland Ski Area, a lack of snow shuttered the resort all last winter, prompting it to take out a $750,000 Small Business Administration disaster loan to stay afloat. After opening in late December, the ski area had to close Jan. 6 because of low snow, but then reopened Feb. 7 after a storm brought snow to the mountains. This weekend's storm has created the best conditions of the year and has ski officials hopeful the season will stretch into mid-April. Ski area General Manager Hiram Towle says he believes the recent low snow years are part of a natural weather cycle, and not due to long-term climate change.  "I'm not fully subscribing to that yet," he says. That being said, the ski area is adapting to less snow. Workers harvested snow off the parking lot and other parts of the mountain to use on ski runs. They use snow groomers to improve conditions, Towle says. The ski area is also looking to branch out. "We're working on a business model that will better allow us to weather low snow years by having more summer operations. Zip lines, rock climbing walls and disc golf are some of the activities that could help us weather lean years," Towle says. In Ashland, historically low snow last winter in the watershed prompted the city to connect to Medford's water by completing the Talent-Ashland-Phoenix water line. The line already extended to Talent, but finishing the pipe had been on the back burner in Ashland for years before drought pushed officials to fast-track the project. Medford gets its water from the larger underground Big Butte Springs system, whereas Ashland relies primarily on precipitation and snowmelt that flows into Ashland Creek and collects in Reeder Reservoir. In addition to low snow, the Rogue Valley has seen heavy smoke from wildfires two years in a row. If temperatures rise by 2.2 degrees, the Rogue Valley and mountains straddling the Oregon and California border will see a 300 to 400 percent increase in areas burned by wildfire, according to the 2014 National Climate Assessment. The Cascade Mountains to the east will see a 400 to 500 percent increase in acreage burned, the assessment predicts. Increased wildfire could worsen respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses in nearby populations because of smoke and particulate pollution, the assessment predicts. "We're very aware of smoke. We're serving a vulnerable population," says Melissa Thickett, director of resident services at the Rogue Valley Manor retirement community in Medford. "We stay abreast of conditions and warn residents to stay indoors, especially if they have health conditions that could be affected by smoke." Rogue Valley Manor Director of Marketing Lisa Mandell says she doesn't know of any people who decided against moving here because of smoke concerns. "I wish we could have a crystal ball and know how the weather will change over time," Mandell says. "We're blessed to have a spectacular climate, and I hope that doesn't change." The two say the area's mild climate is attractive to people from across the country. "This winter was especially wonderful for people coming to the area," Thickett says. A consistent influx of retirees to Southern Oregon has been fueling everything from real estate to expansion of the health care industry. In 2013, when summer wildfire smoke was at its worst, the Oregon Shakespeare Festival canceled four performances at its outdoor Allen Elizabethan Theatre, which can seat 1,190 playgoers, says OSF Media Communications Manager Amy Richard. OSF canceled one performance because of smoke last summer, she says. "There is lost revenue if people choose not to come. It's not just that air quality is bad for visitors, the cast and crew. If we have lengthy smoky periods, people just don't come," Richard says. "That impacts not just the Elizabethan, but the (indoor) Angus Bowmer and Thomas theaters, too." She says OSF supports Ashland's efforts to thin wildfire fuels in the forested hills above town. The city is in the midst of a multiyear, multimillion-dollar project to trim trees and brush from thousands of acres in partnership with the U.S. Forest Service, The Nature Conservancy and the Lomakatsi Restoration Project. Brian Ballou, spokesman for the Oregon Department of Forestry, says this year's mild winter is setting the area up for another busy wildfire season. He says forecasts call for intense fire years to become the norm. "We're in for more aggressive wildfire seasons," he says. "The cost of firefighting goes up, and firefighters are engaged in fighting fires more months of the year. With very dry vegetation, typically we have more intense fire behavior and a risk of more fires. Fire seasons will be more and more expensive if forecasts play out. It's not a rosy situation at all when you look at future scenarios." As more people move into forested areas, fighting wildfires becomes more difficult and expensive, Ballou notes. He predicts agencies that fight fires will face more competition for resources such as contract firefighting crews and helicopters. Ballou says it makes sense to invest money in proactive forest-thinning projects to reduce wildfire fuels. Fuels reduction is less expensive than fighting intense wildfires, he says. "Doing well-planned mitigation would be a far more effective way of protecting resources, reducing the number of days smoke is in the air and cutting firefighting costs — not to mention preventing the loss of homes to wildfires. Lots of projects are being done strategically to protect populated areas," he says. "There is hope. There really is." Staff reporter Vickie Aldous can be reached at 541-776-4486 or [email protected] . Follow her on Twitter at www.twitter.com/VickieAldous . http://www.mailtribune.com/article/20150301/NEWS/150309957 © 2015 Copyright © 1995-2011 Crain Communications Inc. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use Privacy Statement -->