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0 of 3 Premium Clicks used this month SUBSCRIBE Print + Online Subscriber Activation | Register x Forgot Password | Need an Account? e-edition | subscribe | newsletter | deals Home News Latest Stories Emergency services, May 3 Former San Quentin guard publishes book Photographers capture some lovely blooms in latest Mail Tribune contest Soaring rents, stagnant wages create housing crisis Wimer's Highland Games appeal to both the kilted and kiltless Crime, Courts and Emergency Services Emergency services, May 3 Dozens of drivers nabbed in Medford pedestrian sting Emergency services, May 2 Gold Hill man torched his foreclosed property No leads on who smashed about 20 windows in Ashland before dawn Thursday Politics and Elections BREAKING: Baltimore prosecutor charges officers in Freddie Gray's death Earthquakes hit regularly in Medford (Oklahoma, that is) Medford School Board, Position 6: Curt Ankerberg vs. Janet Lightheart Arthur I. Cyr: Cuba’s enduring challenge to American foreign policy – and American politics Gov. Brown touts need for transportation funding in talk to Medford chamber Education More kindergartners vaccinated in 2015 Elementary students honor local police officers Levy backers eye final push Two seats contested on Central Point School Board Neal Simon: This is a test Environment Earthquakes hit regularly in Medford (Oklahoma, that is) Residents say armed mine supporters sully Josephine County's reputation Armed protesters gather at Medford BLM office over Sugar Pine Mine dispute Jackson County's wildlife services agent seen as both killer and savior Biomass technology: Creating products out of former waste State News PERS ruling means tough choices for state and local lawmakers US, Canada unveil rules to boost oil train safety Cylvia Hayes public records case goes before Salem judge Fixit tag for Portland's noted Portland Building: $175 million Fee targets rail cars that haul oil, other flammables Nation - World There's a $10 million precious stone hidden in plain sight at Grand Central Tsarnaev convicted on all charges in Boston Marathon bombing Obituaries Tim Lawrence Yockey Penelope Catherine (Turner) Martens William "Bill" Geisslinger Alice Irenia (McFall) Calkins Dennis Dean Ekwall Weather Photo Galleries Since You Asked Videos Web Cams Mail Tribune 100 Shareable Sports Latest Stories Ragan, Tornado hit way past Indians Mayweather wins decision in richest fight Timbers, Whitecaps play to 0-0 draw North’s Folsom, South boys shine at GP Rotary Marist halts EP’s winning streak Varsity 541 College Sports Raiders' Abbott breaks 22-year-old record Dodge signs as free agent with Falcons Lockie stands out in Ducks' spring game Raiders go 1-1, advance to today Singler shines in Raider spring game Pro Sports Mayweather wins decision in richest fight Timbers, Whitecaps play to 0-0 draw Clippers oust defending champ Spurs McIlroy, Casey fight until darkness Quarterbacks Petty, Hundley chosen on final day Community Sports Bailey picks up modified win Wilson delivers in return of local boxing Palmer breezes to second straight men’s title Business Latest Stories Blog: Do You Want Cheese with Your Wine? Never enough: New Starbucks proposed on Barnett Road in Medford Comcast deal dropped along with Pac-12 1-800Flowers.com reports $10.5 million loss in third quarter Jackson County debt-ridden homeowners have an option Real Estate News Never enough: New Starbucks proposed on Barnett Road in Medford Jackson County debt-ridden homeowners have an option New home in an old house Naumes plans custom-crush winery in former packing house GREEN ACRES: Southern Oregon provides escape from the maddening crowd People In Business Transportation Erickson finds room to work at Medford airport Lithia Motors nets $40.7 million in first quarter Lithia Motors reports second-best quarter ever Business briefs Medford airport's record run continues Agriculture 1-800Flowers.com reports $10.5 million loss in third quarter Naumes plans custom-crush winery in former packing house New bosses take charge at Harry & David Dancin Vineyards covers up Opinion Latest Letters to the Editor, May 3 Our View: Our picks for Medford School Board Dana Milbank: Clinton's opponents need to smoke her out George Will: The Lusitania's role in history Charles Krauthammer: Men wielding power in hellish times Editorials Our View: Our picks for Medford School Board Other Views: Gun-bill recalls misguided, futile Our View: Bill gives ex-convicts a glimmer of hope Our View: Medical marijuana market not at risk Our View: Don't wait on public records reform Letters to the Editor Letters to the Editor, May 3 Letters to the Editor, May 2 Letters to the Editor, May 1 Letters to the Editor, April 30 Letters to the Editor, April 29 Columns Dana Milbank: Clinton's opponents need to smoke her out George Will: The Lusitania's role in history Charles Krauthammer: Men wielding power in hellish times Guest Opinion: Animal-killing program pulls wool over taxpayers' eyes Michael Gerson: A pastor's faith in Baltimore Guest Opinions Guest Opinion: Animal-killing program pulls wool over taxpayers' eyes Guest Opinion: Uniting to restore our sovereignty to we, the people Guest Opinion: This Earth Day, we celebrate the Northwest Forest Plan The Medford School Board was wrong: 'American Pageant' is a political agenda, not history The Medford School Board was right: 'American Pageant' is a fine book, and the board did its homework Lifestyle Latest stories Photographers capture some lovely blooms in latest Mail Tribune contest Bright spots in the dark Wedding: Melody Ann Madi and Lyman Martin Stiles Engagement: Anders-Stanley Columnist for a Day: 'When Harry met Shirley,' the story continues Food Andrea Honaker: Mexican-inspired dips for Cinco de Mayo Set a table from your local farmers market Let's do brunch! Page H. Onorato: Enjoying good food just for the fun of it Page H. Onorato: Food items appear in the funnies Home and Garden Heirloom tomatoes bring ageless flavor Betty Montgomery: You can have a variety of ferns in your garden Clean out household chemicals Friday and Saturday Dear Monty: 10 tips to avoid tenant complaints Home Help: Upgrade your entryway with simple DIY projects Health Dr. Murray Feingold: Turn down that noise Health Watch: Pack your pantry with healthy items HealthStyle: It’s all in the family dinner 'Game changer' for heart patients Health Watch: Tips for protecting your eyes Hiking Biking Faith Religion Briefs: Friday, May 1 Religion Briefs: Friday, April 24 Religion Briefs: Friday, April 17 Religion briefs: Friday, April 10 Milestones and Achievements Wedding: Melody Ann Madi and Lyman Martin Stiles Engagement: Anders-Stanley ENGAGEMENT: Sellers-James Witham's birthday bash draws hundreds for 1950s prices Charlesworth-Murphy Columnist for a Day Rogue Healthy Aging Tempo Latest stories 5 picks for live entertainment Live Music in Local Clubs Master Gardener Spring Fair at The Expo Randall Theatre stages 'Little Shop of Horrors' Camelot Theatre presents 'Arsenic and Old Lace' Theater REVIEW: Carson, Patton shine in 'Arsenic and Old Lace' Some Oregon Shakespeare Festival crew members seek to unionize Randall Theatre stages 'Little Shop of Horrors' 'Much Ado' at SOU Thanks for the Memories stages 'Company' one night only Music Thunder's Edge, Steel Cranes tonight at Club 66 The Farr Side: CMAs do it right, in many ways Live Music in Local Clubs Trio Brasileiro plays Old Siskiyou Barn Interview: Offspring plays hits new and old on tour Community Events Ashland's First Friday Art Walk showcases new exhiits by regional artists Master Gardener Spring Fair at The Expo A Taste of Ashland pairs food and wine at galleries Rogue Valley Earth Day 2015 Foreign language film festival set at SOU Movies Movie review: ‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ has a lot going on Movie review: ‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ knows how to party Catching up with the Avengers Interview: Sofia Vergara talks ‘Hot Pursuit’ Quick Flicks: ‘Cinderella,’ ‘Insurgent’ and more Dining Restaurant inspections, May 3, 2015 Taqueria Picaro offers casual Mexican cuisine Restaurant inspections: April 26, 2015 Island Grindz serves up Hawaiian specialties Have you wandered down the Bear Creek Wine Trail yet? Tempo Videos Classifieds Jobs Autos Real Estate FEATURED » Obits Blogs TV Listings Movie Listings Oregon Outdoors Oregon Healthy Living Special Sections Business Services NEWS NOW Our View: Our picks for Medford School Board ... Bright spots in the dark ... Guest Opinion: Animal-killing program pulls wool over taxpayers' eyes ... Our View: Our picks for Medford School Board ... Bright spots in the dark ... Guest Opinion: Animal-killing program pulls wool over taxpayers' eyes ... ANOTHER VIEW George Will: The prescience of Daniel Patrick Moynihan Comment MailTribune.com Writer Posted Mar. 15, 2015 at 12:01 AM Posted Mar. 15, 2015 at 12:01 AM » Social News In the mid-1960s, a social scientist noted something ominous that came to be called "Moynihan's Scissors": Two lines on a graph crossed, replicating a scissors' blades. The descending line charted the decline in the minority male unemployment rate. The ascending line charted the simultaneous rise of new welfare cases. The broken correlation of improvements in unemployment and decreased welfare dependency shattered confidence in social salvation through economic growth and reduced barriers to individual striving. Perhaps the decisive factors in combating poverty and enabling upward mobility were not economic but cultural — the habits, mores and dispositions that equip individuals to take advantage of opportunities. This was dismaying because governments know how to alter incentives and remove barriers but not how to manipulate culture. The assumption that the condition of the poor must  improve as macroeconomic conditions improve was to be refuted by a deepened understanding of the crucial role of the family as the primary transmitter of the social capital essential for self-reliance and betterment. Family structure is the primary predictor of social outcomes, as Daniel Patrick Moynihan knew in 1965. Fifty years ago this month, Moynihan, then a 37-year-old social scientist working in the Labor Department, wrote a report, "The Negro Family: The Case for National Action," that was leaked in July. The crisis he discerned was that 23.6 percent of African-American births were to unmarried women. Among the "tangle" of pathologies he associated with the absence of fathers was a continually renewed cohort of inadequately socialized adolescent males. This meant dangerous neighborhoods and schools where disciplining displaced teaching. He would later write: "A community that allows a large number of young men to grow up in broken families, dominated by women, never acquiring any stable relationship to male authority ... that community asks for and gets chaos." Academic sensitivity enforcers and race-mongers denounced him as a racist who was "blaming the victim." Today, 72 percent of African-American children are born to single women, 48 percent of first births of all races and ethnicities are to unmarried women, and more than 3 million mothers under 30 are not living with the fathers of their children. In 1966, Sargent Shriver, head of President Johnson's "War on Poverty," was asked how long it would take to win the war. He replied, "About 10 years." The conventional wisdom was Kennedy's cheerful expectation that a rising economic tide would lift all boats. America now knows that bad family structure defeats good economic numbers. Today, a nation dismayed by inequality and the intergenerational transmission of poverty must face the truth that political scientist Lawrence Mead enunciated nearly 25 years ago: "The inequalities that stem from the workplace are now trivial in comparison to those stemming from family structure. What matters for success is less whether your father was rich or poor than whether you knew your father at all." Moynihan, undaunted by his shrill critics who stifled debate and research, brought his barbed wit to the subject, suggesting that an important determinant of the quality of American schools was their proximity to the Canadian border. That is, high cognitive outputs, measured by standardized tests, correlate less with high per pupil expenditure than with a high percentage of two-parent families, which are not scattered randomly. The election of Kennedy was celebrated in academia as the empowerment of the professoriate. Moynihan ruefully remembered the euphoric expectation of "the direct transmission of social science into governmental policy." We still are far from fully fathoming all that has caused the social regression about which Moynihan was prescient. There has been what he called "iatrogenic government," an iatrogenic ailment being one caused by a physician or medicine: Some welfare policies provided perverse incentives for absent fathers. But the longer Moynihan lived, the more he believed that culture controls more than incentives do. "The role of social science," he would write, "lies not in the formulation of social policy, but in the measurement of its results." Not in postulating what will work but in demonstrating what does work. And, increasingly, what does not work. Chastened by "the obstinacy of things," Moynihan recalled a Harvard chemist defining the problem that exists, in the physical sciences and perhaps in social science, when, in Moynihan's phrasing, "the number of variables interacting with one another in any given situation makes that situation extraordinarily complicated and difficult to fathom." Moynihan asked the chemist at what number of variables this problem begins. The chemist replied: "Three." George Will's email address is [email protected]. 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