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Cuts would jam classrooms Class sizes of 40 are possible in Jackson County educators' nightmare budget scenario By DAMIAN MANN Mail Tribune After the state fired a warning shot last week projecting a $16 million financial hit to Jackson County schools, education leaders fear the ultimate target will be students. "Class sizes will skyrocket," predicted Charles Hellman, superintendent of the Rogue River School District. "These sorts of cuts are so farfetched as to sound incomprehensible." The cuts could mean a loss of 300 positions countywide and class sizes of 40 or more students as schools attempt to lop 9 percent off their already shaky budgets. What the cuts might mean The following are potential results of a $16 million loss in state revenue to Jackson County schools, according to an analysis by the Oregon Department of Education and scenarios outlined by local educators: Loss of roughly 300 positions or more countywide, including teachers. Elimination of support staff for core courses and electives. Elimination of counselors at middle schools and high schools. Spending cutbacks on textbooks and other supplies. Elimination of elective classes and some core courses at high schools. Reduction in overhead for operation, maintenance and administration. Loss of specialists for art, music, physical education, reading, math, library, foreign language or child development. Elimination of early reading improvement programs in elementary schools. Shortening of the school year. These cuts could affect education in the following ways, according to the state Education Department: Class sizes would increase to 40 students or more. Fewer students would reach state standards for certificates of initial mastery. The second phase of imposing higher state standards, called the certificate of advanced mastery program, would be delayed. Dropout rates would increase. Teachers would have less time for individualized instruction. Some students would take longer to learn to read. There would be few, if any, electives to choose from. The state, suffering from an economic downturn and reduction in tax revenues, has just ratcheted up its shortfall estimate in the 2001-03 budget from $700 million to $900 million, and it could reach $1.2 billion by March. Education's share of the original $700 million shortfall estimate translates into statewide reductions of $300 million, roughly $480 a student. After a decade of continuing declines in dollars spent on education in Oregon since voters passed a property-tax limitation in 1990, classrooms are the most likely target for cuts. Last year, Jackson County schools slashed $8 million in programs as expenses outpaced revenues, forcing the loss of 184 positions countywide. Many districts, such as Medford and Ashland, were forced to bump up class sizes by two or more students on average. Eagle Point School District suffered losses of 71 positions, many of which were instructional aides. But this new round of reductions could make the situation far worse. Rogue River already was planning to reduce expenses by $400,000 next year because of continuing declines in enrollment. The state shortfall could result in slashing an additional $700,000, leaving the district with little choice than to reduce the number of positions. "I've informed my staff of the potential of some serious cuts," said Hellman. At this point, he is not prepared to say how serious. But in a district of just 66 teachers, the loss of even a dozen could push class sizes up markedly. The Oregon Department of Education, which prepared an analysis of budget reductions, forecasts a gloomy scenario if the state places even a partial share of the shortfall on the backs of schools. Dropout rates would increase, the analysis predicted. Fewer students would hit assessment benchmarks. Fewer counselors would be available. And there would be less money for textbooks. Teachers would have less time for individualized instruction, and many elective courses could be either reduced or eliminated, the study showed. Even core courses might have to be reduced, possibly by putting more students into a classroom. Some of these changes would have other repercussions, the study said. Contracts with teachers may have to be renegotiated because of larger classrooms or salary freezes. Lawmakers will be working through January and February to solve this growing problem, arguing whether one-time money should be used as a stopgap measure. "Our legislators are saying let's apply a bandage approach, when they should say, 'We need a long-term solution to this problem,' " said Don Alexander, superintendent of the Prospect School District. Projected cuts of $160,000 at Prospect could mean a loss of one teacher in the elementary grades, the foods program and the music program, said Alexander. In a district of just 16 teachers, the loss of even a few would have a dramatic impact. As for many superintendents, the future is unsettling for Alexander. "We're all just scratching our heads and losing sleep over it," he said. Alexander has heard some local educators worry that class sizes at the elementary grades could rise as high as 30 to 40 students, while at secondary schools they could hit 40 or even 50 students. "All you can do with fewer numbers (of teachers) is cram more kids in a class," he said. "This would not go well for our kids." Ashland Superintendent Juli Di Chiro hopes the state doesn't make the full cuts proposed. In a worst-case scenario, her district could suffer almost $3 million in reductions, but Di Chiro remains optimistic that the bite will be less vicious. "We have targeted $2 million," she said. "We're thinking that when they negotiate, it won't be as bad as $480 a student." Whatever the cuts turn out to be, they will have a detrimental impact on Ashland schools, she said. "The unfortunate thing is we've already trimmed back on nonessential services," she said. "It is going to affect class size. There is no way it won't." Di Chiro wouldn't speculate on the potential job losses in her district, but believes some losses would occur. "We're a people-rich organization," she said. "Most of our budget is people, and that is the tragedy." She hopes lawmakers in Salem find another solution to the perennial problem of school funding. "We elect (them) to do the tough job of running the state," she said. With Oregon now ranked at 46th in tax revenues in the country, Di Chiro thinks it's time to look at other tax sources. While some lawmakers argue that more taxes could dampen the economic recovery, Di Chiro said the effects of layoffs also would be detrimental, especially with an unemployment rate of 7.5 percent. Like other administrators, she believes Oregon lawmakers need to find a long-term solution. "It's not working and we need a different system," said Di Chiro. Politics might forestall school solution Lawmakers from Jackson County say there's little interest in new taxes Oregon lawmakers warn there may not be the political will in Salem to find a long-term funding solution for education. "I've told the governor and others we've got a five-alarm fire and nobody wants to get on the fire truck and put the fire out," said state Sen. Lenn Hannon, D-Ashland. Since it's an election year, Hannon said, the Legislature will do nothing to solve the funding problem for schools. "They're rearranging the tables on the deck of the Titanic before it sinks," he said. Some lawmakers have suggested using one-time money to raise anywhere from $300 million to $500 million as a stopgap measure to help alleviate a projected shortfall of up to $1.2 billion in the 2001-2003 budget. Hannon believes such a move would delay addressing a problem that will only get worse. "If I ran my business with one-time fixes, I would be in hot water," said Hannon. Raising so-called "sin taxes" on tobacco or alcohol will provide only a small amount of money and wouldn't be worth the effort, Hannon contended. Hannon had proposed a 3-cent sales tax and a 2-cent business and occupation tax to help shore up the budget, which is dependent on income and property taxes. Lawmakers turned down this proposal, which Hannon believes is essential to maintaining a good revenue source for the state. "We're trying to support a table with only two legs, when we need at least three," he said. After speaking with superintendents from Jackson County schools last week, Hannon said he'd heard class sizes could increase to 40 or more students. Many administrators hope the governor and Legislature will find some solution, he said, but "it's not going to happen." State Rep. Rob Patridge, R-Medford, agreed with Hannon that there hasn't been enough of a sense of urgency in Salem. But, he said, the Legislature is just at the point of gathering information before it reacts. "Everything is on the table," he said. As to new revenue sources, Patridge responded, "I don't think the Oregon Legislature has the appetite to pass any new taxes." He urges the use of one-time funds to take care of some of the education funding problem, perhaps resulting in 2 percent cuts instead of 9 percent. "Some hope that schools can be held harmless," he said. "I think that is doubtful." While cuts would devastate schools, the current economic situation will be painful for everyone. "Do you toss the old person out of the nursing home or do you keep the kid in school?" he said. State Rep. Alan Bates, a Democrat now living in Ashland, said education has taken annual hits since the passage of Measure 5, the property tax initiative, in 1990. "Oregon has one of the best K-12 (kindergarten-through-12th-grade) systems in the country," he said. "We're going to lose that. You can't keep defunding." Although he thinks it is too early to tell how severe the cuts will be, he is afraid that members of the Republican Party will say no to new revenue. While some temporary measure might be forthcoming, Bates doesn't think the future bodes well for education. "I'm afraid there will probably be something, but it will be a downward spiral for K-12," he said. In the meantime, Bates supports using up one-time funds to bolster education. Reach reporter Damian Mann at 776-4476, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.