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Mail Tribune / Jim Craven Slow salmon return causes concern on upper Rogue Outdoors By MARK FREEMAN Mail Tribune TRAIL — When Randy Robart makes note of nature’s calendar along the upper Rogue River, spring appears to be a few weeks behind the calendar on his wall. Wintery rains in May. Mother’s Day came and went without Robart driving through the usual green cloud of Mother’s Day caddis. And the stoneflies — often called "salmon flies" because they appear in the upper Rogue when the spring chinook return — have been no-shows as well. "I just saw the first real decent batch of salmon flies," says Robart, who manages Cole Rivers Hatchery. "All the typical spring indicators that you see here are running a few weeks behind." That’s why Robart is hoping the salmon are running behind schedule as well. If not, then the current spring chinook salmon run is destined to fizzle out before it ever got started. Advertisement The upper Rogue is hosting its worst early return of spring chinook in more than 20 years, prompting concern that no fish now could turn into no wild chinook harvest or even no fishing later to help a depressed stock of wild spring chinook. Through May, close to half of the spring chinook run has crossed Gold Ray Dam and entered the upper Rogue, where the fish carry a vibrant river economy on their backs. But through Monday, only 2,848 chinook have passed the dam’s fish-counting station. That’s just 22 percent of the 13,168 chinook counted there, on average, over more than six decades. Where schools by the hundreds should be rolling past the videotape counting system, the video only captures a few dozen a day. And precious few of those are getting caught by anglers who become obsessed by Rogue springers for their size, beauty, tough fight and tasty flesh. "Occasionally, (the river) will cough one up," says Dan Stump, a long-time Medford fishing guide who pounds the Gold Ray Dam waters each spring for chinook. More than a half-dozen boats full of anglers have joined Stump on Wednesday morning in mining the Rogue below Gold Ray Dam for springers. They sift out just two chinook for their efforts. "We’re seeing just a trickle of fish," Stump says between oar-strokes in high, fast water. "I’m hoping something will shake loose." So does Dan VanDyke, the Rogue District fisheries biologist for the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. "I’m concerned," VanDyke says. "We had lower than average returns last year, and we’ve been watching the Gold Ray Dam counts even closer this year." With the historic peak of the run a week away, hopes for a late run are giving way to fears of a very low one. If the run appears too low, VanDyke may want to conserve as many wild springers as possible. Options include cutting what limited wild spring chinook harvest there is above Gold Ray Dam, or possibly close chinook fishing earlier than the July 31 season end. VanDyke’s not tipping his cards. VanDyke says he had "no specific" discussions about in-season closures. "Obviously, spring chinook are our primary conservation concern," VanDyke says. "The counts so far are definitely disappointing. We’ll have more information in the next week or two." A combination of genetics and environment are the primary reasons why salmon migrate when they do. Research shows that older, larger chinook tend to return to spawn earlier in the run than younger, smaller chinook. Return timing also is a highly inheritable trait. "Early-run fish beget early-run fish," says ODFW research scientist Tom Satterthwaite, who has studied Rogue chinook over the past three decades. "Late-run fish beget late-run fish." Both of those factors don’t bode well for early-run springers, a highly depressed sub-species of the run hammered the hardest by the placement and operation of Lost Creek dam. Simply put, there are not a lot of early-run fish to do the begetting. The ODFW and an advisory group are working on a draft conservation plan that could address changes to river management, including angling, for early-run wild spring chinook. A draft is due this summer. But one remaining factor is water temperature. Chinooks historically don’t start powering in force over Gold Ray Dam until water temperatures hover close to 60 degrees. But high and cold water levels have caused delays in fall chinook and steelhead runs this year in the Rogue. And the Columbia River’s spring chinook showed up late en masse to even eclipsed the pre-season forecast. So, why can’t the Rogue just be late because of high and cold river flows? It’s happened twice, in 1983 and ‘84. Both cold, wet springs that saw only one-seventh of the run over Gold Ray Dam by May 31. If that formula plays out in 2006, the upper Rogue could eventually see a spring chinook run of more than 20,000 fish — well below the all-time average of 34,670 fish, but respectable nonetheless. But this month’s temperatures appear slightly higher than during the ‘83 and ‘84 runs. Besides, those late fish have yet to show themselves in the lower Rogue. No big schools of salmon moving into tidewater. "It’s just small schools every couple days," says Jim Carey at the Rogue Outdoor Store in Gold Beach, where spring chinook fishing has been a resounding bust. This past weekend has brought a bit of optimism — a respectable 30 springers caught one day in the lower Rogue. But even that has since slowed. As the trickling of chinook resumes, Carey fears the run isn’t late like the salmon flies. It’s just not there, like the Mother’s Day caddis. "I’m of the opinion it’s over," Carey says. "But I’m hoping I’m wrong. "I’m looking at my checkbook and really I’m hoping I’m wrong." Reach reporter Mark Freeman at 776-4470, or e-mail Slow salmon return causes concern on upper Rogue ">[email protected] . Mail Tribune Home | Local News | Sports | Business | Obituaries | Life | Opinion AP News | Archives | Site Map | Community | Classified Copyright © 1997-2006 Mail Tribune, Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Website Feedback online casinos news Home Security Systems Online Casino Reviews Men's Clothing GMAT Prep Fundraisers UK Homeowner Loans Discount Hotel Reservations Send Flowers Casinos Canada Texas Electric Choice Compare Electric rates in Texas Windermere Van Vleet Trunks, Footlocker Online poker at AbsolutePoker.com Advertisement s