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http://www.omniture.com --> Email Story to a Friend July 9, 2006 Cars snake down Barnett Road, where rush hour creates traffic nightmares for commuters. While a new Interstate 5 interchange will help alleviate congestion on Barnett, other areas of south Medford will see 20 to 40 percent more traffic in the next 10 years, transportation planners say. (Mail Tribune / Roy Musitelli) In a jam By Meg Landers Mail Tribune Think traffic's bad now? Just wait. By the year 2020, approved and proposed developments between south Medford and Phoenix are expected to add 187,000 more cars on the road every day, though some trips may be duplicates. By comparison, Interstate 5 sees 49,000 a day, less than a third that volume. The Southeast Plan east of North Phoenix Road is expected to add 135,500 vehicle trips daily by 2020. Stewart Meadows Village, a proposed mixed-use development west of Highway 99, would add 20,359 within 10 years. The Wal-Mart Supercenter at the old Miles Field will contribute 8,755 by Christmas next year if appeals aren't successful. Rogue Valley Manor's proposed housing expansion east of Interstate 5 would add 13,520 by 2012. And that's just a few of the projects planned for south Medford. Advertisement Meanwhile, Phoenix is looking at adding a 227-acre South Valley Employment Center and a 400-acre residential-commercial development just south of the Manor's proposed expansion. Former Medford city planner Steve Rehn, who now works for the Rogue Valley Council of Governments on regionwide planning, said without improvements to transportation systems and policies, traffic congestion will worsen to the point I-5 and Highways 99 and 62 will fail by 2030. "Growing communities can't just build their way out of congestion," he said. Current planning policies lead to overburdened transportation systems, some say. Medford calculates traffic impacts of developments only to the city limits. It would not take into account, say, the impact of Home Depot in Phoenix on traffic on North Phoenix Road in Medford, which already is being burdened by the Southeast Plan, expected to add 4,100 to 8,700 homes. The Oregon Department of Transportation, which now is required to calculate impacts on I-5 interchanges, only looks at current zoning when planning for future projects. It would not consider, for example, the impact of Phoenix's proposed developments — currently located on exclusive farm-use land — at the Fern Valley interchange, though the interchange is slated for improvements starting in 2008. ODOT Planning Manager Terry Harbour notes developers requesting a zoning change must mitigate any impact the project would have on the existing road system. And while ODOT cannot stop a project, the agency does get a vote in the zoning change request. Medford Public Works Director Cory Crebbin said he'd like Medford's Transportation System Plan, which identifies how the transportation system will be developed and financed over the next 20 years, to go beyond city boundaries as other cities' plans do. "North Phoenix Road outside of the city limits is projected to fail in the TSP," said Crebbin, adding that it's frustrating not being able to take that into account in determining traffic needs. Crebbin said Medford's biggest transportation problems began years ago, when the city started growing. "There are not enough east/west connections over I-5 and Bear Creek," he said. Crebbin said the city plans to add a third northbound lane at Barnett Road and Riverside Avenue, and a third southbound lane at Highway 99 and Stewart Avenue within the next 20 years, which will help alleviate congestion. Alex Georgevitch, traffic engineer for Medford public works, said he doesn't believe adding together the vehicle trips for each project, for a total of 187,000, provides an accurate number of how many cars will be on the road. "One car is going across many driveways and each trip across the driveway counts as one trip," he said. But he admits traffic numbers will climb significantly. "Ten years from now you'll probably see something like a 20 to 40 percent increase in traffic in that region," said Georgevitch. Exacerbating traffic woes is the fact people drive more than they used to, Crebbin said. "The same people drive 40 percent more than they did 20 years ago," he said. While the new south Medford interchange, scheduled for completion in 2010, will help alleviate traffic snarls on Barnett Road, it will direct more traffic onto Highway 99 between Barnett and South Stage roads. "We're going to see an increased level of congestion," said John Vial, ODOT district manager. Shirley Roberts, ODOT project leader for a 20-year management plan for the south Medford interchange, said the state is taking steps to protect it from becoming as congested as Barnett Road is today. Roberts said ODOT wants to impose regulations that would set some limits on what development the city could allow around the interchange. "That's definitely an issue to us," said Medford Planning Director Rob Scott. "Can ODOT impose land-use regulations — obviously that's their desire." Scott declined to comment further because of ongoing negotiations between the city and ODOT. Harbour said ODOT also suggested a daily vehicle-trips cap or allocation for the area, which so far has met a cool reception from Medford officials. "It wasn't something they wanted to look at," he said. Another possibility was imposing a parking maximum for nearby parking lots. "If people know that, they will time their trip knowing when the peak is," he said. Rehn, who is transportation planner for the Rogue Valley Metropolitan Planning Organization, a federally mandated group made up of jurisdictions to coordinate transportation planning within an urban area, said long-range planning is key to preventing gridlock. "I would certainly agree that it takes leadership among policy makers to deal with the future transportation needs of this region because of this rapid growth," he said. "There has to be advanced planning or we're going to have serious problems." Vial said though there is extensive regional transportation planning currently going on, traffic is hard to keep up with. "The needs outweigh the available funding by 10 times," he said. Wendy Siporen, member of Medford Citizens for Responsible Development and Talent City Council member, said she believes there's no way for urban areas to keep up with increasing traffic volumes. "Really it takes a forward-thinking planning department and leaders," said Siporen, speaking as a citizen, not a council member. She said there needs to be a change in development patterns and more thoughtful community design. "We create a city infrastructure that requires you to drive anywhere," she said. Siporen said she'd like to see small community shopping centers so people live near where they work and shop, and could walk to their destinations. Rehn said fewer large, car-oriented shopping centers and more well-planned mixed-use developments are "the wave of the future." "You try to shift the habits of the people away from automobile orientation," he said. Mixed-use developments, such as the Southeast Plan and Stewart Meadows, have the potential to help trim traffic volumes. Rehn said as long as appropriate, well-planned commercial businesses go into these developments, residents' needs could be met within walking distance. For some, the increase in traffic may have benefits. Bob Seus, co-owner of Hubbard's Ace Home Center on South Pacific Highway, said it was too soon to say how heavy traffic would become. "Whether or not it's going to be enough to create any problems, I don't know," he said. "I'm not too concerned about the traffic patterns." He said street improvements, increase in traffic and the new Home Depot in Phoenix would only help Hubbard's business. "When a big store comes in, they bring business in that we would never draw," said Seus. Siporen said she'd like to see attention given to improving public transportation, such as the Rogue Valley Transportation District bus system. "If we spent more money on RVTD then maybe we wouldn't need more cars," she said. Rehn agreed, and said this is a good time to find solutions. "It's not gridlock yet so there's always time to improve things," he said. Reach reporter Meg Landers at 776-4481 or e-mail [email protected] . ABOUT THIS SERIES The Mail Tribune takes a three-day look at how traffic from south Medford to Phoenix will change in the coming decade and a half, and the news isn't good. Today: Current planning policies lead to overburdened transportation systems. Monday: Phoenix residents worry increased traffic will ruin the rural character of their city and choke roads that already are overloaded. Tuesday: Is big-city traffic in our future? Regional leaders look for ways to get commuters out of their cars. Advertisement s Mail Tribune Home | Local News | Sports | Business | Obituaries | Life | Opinion AP News | Archives | Site Map | Community | Classified Copyright © 1997-2006 Mail Tribune, Inc. All rights reserved. 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