1 1.1 Impact on urban centresThe impact of last-mile deliveries on cities By 2030, delivery vehicles may add up to five minutes to the average urban commute and account for 13% of total carbon emissions in cities. Urban centres are experiencing significant challenges from the increasing levels of delivery traffic, contributing to congestion and emissions, and creating safety issues. Urban congestion levels have increased significantly in recent years. Dublin’s congestion level (average % additional time lost to traffic compared to free flow) increased from 45% to 66% and Milan’s from 30% to 45% between 2018 and 2023.13 Put simply, more deliveries mean more congestion and more carbon emissions, unless there is a step-change in how deliveries are made. Projections suggest that in Europe, even with the measures currently planned, transport emissions will drop below 1990 levels only by 2032 and would require additional measures to meet industry targets.14 A shortage of available real estate is also making it difficult to create infrastructure, such as microhubs, electric vehicle (EV) charging points and parcel lockers, that can help to mitigate the impact. Delivery vehicles are often forced to stop in undesignated areas, causing obstructions and safety issues, and to search for parking, which can contribute 30% of traffic in busy areas.15 Clearer guidelines on road use for commercial vehicles would also help improve road safety and contribute to reduced congestion.16 High-level modelling has been conducted as part of this paper, viewed through the lens of six city archetypes, described in Figure 1. These archetypes reflect some of the fundamental differences in the characteristics of global cities. Projections suggest that in Europe, even with the measures currently planned, transport emissions will drop below 1990 levels only by 2032 and would require additional measures to meet industry targets. Transforming Urban Logistics: Sustainable and Efficient Last-Mile Delivery in Cities 7

Transforming Urban Logistics 2024