Charles Krauthammer: Ukraine abandoned - Opinion - MailTribune.com - Medford, OR

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2014-12-17

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0 of 3 Premium Clicks used this month SUBSCRIBE Print + Online Subscriber Activation  |  Register x Forgot Password | Need an Account? e-edition | subscribe | newsletter | deals Home News Latest Stories Mt. Ashland Ski Area to open one lift Friday Watch SOU championship on big screen at HEC in Medford Bethel Church helps families at McLoughlin Middle School Matthew T. Mangino: The future of the death penalty in question? Free guided day hikes planned at TouVelle, Valley of the Rogue Crime, Courts and Emergency Services Matthew T. Mangino: The future of the death penalty in question? 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Ashland Ski Area to open one lift Friday       ...       Watch SOU championship on big screen at HEC in Medford       ...       Our View: Celebrate by helping those in need       ...       Mt. Ashland Ski Area to open one lift Friday       ...       Watch SOU championship on big screen at HEC in Medford       ...       Our View: Celebrate by helping those in need       ...           ANOTHER VIEW Charles Krauthammer: Ukraine abandoned MailTribune.com Writer Posted Sep. 7, 2014 @ 12:01 am Posted Sep. 7, 2014 @ 12:01 am »  Social News At his first press briefing after the beheading of American James Foley, President Obama stunned the assembled when he admitted that he had no strategy in Syria for confronting the Islamic State. Yet it was not nearly the most egregious, or consequential, thing he said. Idiotic, yes. You're the leader of the free world. Even if you don't have a strategy — indeed, especially if you don't — you never admit it publicly. However, if Obama is indeed building a larger strategy, an air campaign coordinated with allies on the ground, this does take time. George W. Bush wisely took a month to respond to 9/11, preparing an unusual special ops-Northern Alliance battle plan that brought down Taliban rule in a hundred days. We'll see whether Obama comes up with an Islamic State strategy. But he already has one for Ukraine: Write it off. Hence the more shocking statement in that Aug. 28 briefing: Obama declaring Russia's invasion of Ukraine — columns of tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and a thousand troops brazenly crossing the border — to be nothing new, just "a continuation of what's been taking place for months now." And just to reaffirm his indifference and inaction, Obama mindlessly repeated his refrain that the Ukraine problem has no military solution. Yes, but does he not understand that diplomatic solutions are largely dictated by the military balance on the ground? Vladimir Putin's invasion may be nothing new to Obama. For Ukraine, it changed everything. Russia was on the verge of defeat. Now Ukraine is. That's why Ukraine is welcoming a cease-fire that amounts to capitulation. A month ago, Putin's separatist proxies were besieged and desperate. His invasion to the southeast saved them. It diverted the Ukrainian military from Luhansk and Donetsk, allowing the rebels to recover, while Russian armor rolled over Ukrainian forces, jeopardizing their control of the entire southeast. Putin even boasted that he could take Kiev in two weeks. Why bother? He's already fracturing and subjugating Ukraine, re-creating Novorossiya  ("New Russia"), statehood for which is one of the issues that will be up for, yes, diplomacy. Which makes incomprehensible Obama's denial to Ukraine of even defensive weapons — small arms, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. Indeed, his stunning passivity in the face of a dictionary-definition invasion has not just confounded the Ukrainians. It has unnerved the East Europeans. Hence Obama's reassurances on his trip to the NATO summit in Wales. First up, Estonia. It seems to be Obama's new red line. I'm sure they sleep well tonight in Tallinn now that Obama has promised to stand with them. (Remember the State Department hashtag #UnitedforUkraine?) To back up Obama's words, NATO is touting a promised rapid reaction force of about 4,000 to be dispatched to pre-provisioned bases in the Baltics and Poland within 48 hours of an emergency. (Read: Russian invasion.) First, we've been hearing about European rapid reaction forces for decades. They've amounted to nothing. Second, even if this one comes into being, it is a feeble half-measure. Not only will troops have to be assembled, dispatched, transported and armed as the fire bell is ringing. The very sending will require some affirmative and immediate decision by NATO. Try getting that done. The alliance is famous for its reluctant, slow and fractured decision-making. (See: Ukraine.) By the time the Rapid Reactors arrive, Russia will have long overrun their yet-to-be-manned bases. The real news from Wales is what NATO did not  do. It did not create the only serious deterrent to Russia: permanent bases in the Baltics and eastern Poland that would act as a tripwire. Tripwires produce automaticity. A Russian leader would know that any invading force would immediately encounter NATO troops, guaranteeing war with the West. Which is how we kept the peace in Europe through a half-century of Cold War. U.S. troops in West Germany could never have stopped a Russian invasion. But a Russian attack would have instantly brought America into a war — a war Russia could not countenance. It's what keeps the peace in Korea today. Even the reckless North Korean leadership dares not cross the Demilitarized Zone, because it would encounter U.S. troops and trigger war with America. That's what deterrence means. And what any rapid reaction force cannot provide. In Wales, it will nonetheless be proclaimed a triumph. In Estonia, in Poland, as today in Ukraine, it will be seen for what it is — a loud declaration of reluctance by an alliance led by a man who is the very embodiment of ambivalence. Charles Krauthammer's email address is [email protected]. MailTribune.com Writer Posted Sep. 7, 2014 @ 12:01 am » Comment or view comments   Reader Reaction »  STAY INFORMED   Email NewsLetter   Sign Up Today   Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. calendar Connect with MailTribune.com Facebook Twitter RSS Back to top Reader Services Reader Services Home Subscriptions Subscriber controls Contact us Submissions Photos Events Letters to the editor Corrections Announcements Obituaries Story ideas Since you asked Alerts Email Alerts RSS Feeds Text Alerts Advertise Media Kit Home Products and services Ad rates Advertising contacts Mail Tribune Daily Tidings The Nickel Shop Our Valley Blogs Stay Informed   Email newsletter   Sign Up Today   Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. Your privacy is important, read our privacy policy. © Copyright 2014 Local Media Group, Inc. 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