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Economist predicts further growth By DAVID PRESZLER John Mitchell admits that, when it comes to economic forecasts, he has sinned. "The sin amongst economists in recent years has been to underestimate growth," the noted Northwest economist told Southern Oregon businesspeople Monday. But 97 straight months of upturn have defied predictions that the Asian crisis and other events would slow growth in the U.S. economy. "This is not your parents' business cycle," said Mitchell, noting that there's been only one recession since 1982 and that there were four in the 15 years before that. Mitchell predicted slower job and economic growth for 1999 in his annual forecast last fall. But now he says there are few signs that a significant slowdown is coming. "I was much more pessimistic last fall," he said. "The things we would customarily look for that would imply that it is going to end simply are not there." And given that national picture, Mitchell also expects growth in the economies of Oregon and the Rogue Valley. Despite the perception that Portland and other northern Oregon cities are the fastest-growing, Medford led the state's metro areas in job growth for 1998. "Every metro area but Medford grew at 2.4 percent," Mitchell said. "Medford was at 2.8." And while he doesn't expect 1999 to match the rapid job growth of the mid-1990s, he expects it to be about the same as a year ago. "The basic strengths that I see here, I suspect are going to continue," he said, mentioning the area's quality of life and the construction boom. Mitchell, who holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Oregon, is a former professor of economics and currently U.S. Bank's leading economist. He spoke Monday at the Chamber of Medford/Jackson County's monthly forum. More than other parts of the country, Oregon has felt the impact of the Asian crisis. Mitchell noted that exports made up 10.1 percent of Oregon's output in 1997 and that more than half of that went to Asian countries. But despite struggles in that market, Oregon has continued to grow -- though not at the pace of the early 1990s, he said. "The Oregon numbers have come in above expectations," he said. "The expectation (now) is that we will continue to grow. "We're down to a slower rate of growth but growth nonetheless." Today's Business Index Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 1999, Medford, Oregon USA