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Retailers hope for fireworks in November By ABIGAIL GOLDMAN Los Angeles Times As the holiday shopping season gets under way today, retailers are dangling discounts, contests and giveaways to tempt legions of window shoppers to spend, rather than just look. Thanks to a strong economy, retailers are optimistic that the end of the millennium will be marked by strong sales. So their efforts are focused on retraining consumers to buy early, rather than persist with a bad habit taught by the retailers themselves during leaner years: waiting for last-minute markdowns. Ideally, retailers hope they can take a long weekend more notable for traffic than actual sales, and transform it into a three-day selling event. In reality, they might find themselves heavy on the promotions and still relatively light at the cash register. Discounters, who practically invented promotions, and that modern phenomenon, the online retailers, are promising to wage a street fight over prices. And that is forcing retailers up the chain to enter the low-cost fray, whether they can afford to or not. "The weekend will look strong," said Michael Niemira, a senior economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. "It's become a big discount day, or promotions day, which gets people out looking, but not necessarily buying." Stores began weeks ago to try to claim a fair share of this year's large Christmas shopping pie. American Express predicts the average family's 1999 holiday budget will rise 16 percent, to $1,558, including gifts, entertaining, travel and decorations. Bed Bath & Beyond stuck with its own promotional basics, sending out a gift idea flier containing a $5-off coupon. E-tailers began a television advertising blitz and Bloomingdale's mailed vouchers for an additional 15 percent off this weekend on any three regular or sale items. Other retailers boosted their newspaper spreads and bombarded favorite customers with direct-mail appeals. Macy's got rolling well ahead of its famous Thanksgiving Day parade with early newspaper ads and mass mailings. "The holiday season has become more promotional," said Michael Steinberg, chairman and chief executive of Macy's West. "There are promotional events virtually every week." Target stores in November began a $2,000 daily national giveaway for their credit card users, with a matching $2,000 for the winner's favorite school. "We're building up to the day after Thanksgiving," Target spokeswoman Patty Morris said. "We're hoping that this momentum will carry enough excitement to lure people into our stores after Thanksgiving." Niemira of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi said that while earnings and job growth numbers are strong, the pace has slowed, leading him to estimate just a 4.5 percent sales gain for this Christmas season. Average monthly sales so far this year have been up about 6 percent in stores open at least a year. Others are more optimistic. Diane Swonk, chief economist for Bank One in Chicago, forecasts the strongest November and December since 1994, with sales rising 7.7 percent over last year. Deloitte & Touche, along with the National Retail Federation, is predicting a 6 percent to 6.5 percent sales increase this season. Today's Business Index Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 1999, Medford, Oregon USA