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3 of 3 Premium Clicks used this month SUBSCRIBE Print + Online Subscriber Activation | Register x Forgot Password | Need an Account? e-edition | subscribe | newsletter | deals Home News Latest Stories 10 things to know for Wednesday 10 things to know for Tuesday Tennessee man charged with stealing back car from Central Point towyard Emergency services, March 4 Gold Hill will install cameras in City Hall to monitor employees Crime, Courts and Emergency Services Tennessee man charged with stealing back car from Central Point towyard Emergency services, March 4 Siskiyou County murder suspect will return to California Ashland man faces multiple charges Emergency Services, March 3 Politics and Elections Ashland: Budget increase, swimming pool funding discussion on council agenda Judge upholds Phoenix's moratorium on medical marijuana dispensaries Ballots on Jackson County marijuana tax go out Friday Brown's inauguration brings hope to local lawmakers Kate Brown sworn in as Oregon's 38th governor Education Medford schools superintendent gets high marks St. Mary's robotics team qualifies for state competition LIFEArt plans to open gallery in Medford MSD considers adding a health center at one of the city's high schools Absenteeism in Oregon schools prompts bill that would tie funding to attendance, not enrollment Environment The new normal under climate change? Lost Creek Lake algae bloom subsides Lost Creek Lake logjam could become hazard for boaters Made in the Shade Controlled burn planned for Ashland watershed on Friday State News Oregon House OKs bill to allow workers to discuss wages College aviation program takes flight in Klamath Falls Oregon traveler who was detained in East Timor headed home Appeals court upholds protection for threatened seabird after timber industry challenge Oregon House votes to ban sale of e-cigarettes to minors Nation - World Obituaries Dennis Orie Peugh David V. Sprunger Kenneth Teske Leora Ellen Kenton Gordon I. Bentson Weather Photo Galleries Since You Asked Videos Web Cams Mail Tribune 100 Shareable Bank of America is predicting a massive Tesla collapse Mars One attracts science fiction geeks and people who hate society This $1 million Mercedes is like an armored private jet for the road Sports Latest Stories Raiders place four on all-conference team South boys cruise by McMinnville Tornado breaks through with win James moves past Allen in Cavs' win Crater boys fall short in 5A play-in game Varsity 541 College Sports Raiders place four on all-conference team No. 1 Kentucky rallies to avoid first defeat Coyotes hold off SOU for championship Faster tempo evident in first OSU practice Hungry Ducks pleased but not satisfied Pro Sports James moves past Allen in Cavs' win Eagles deal running back McCoy for Bills' Alonso A's switch-pitcher hopes to find a role Kersey remembered at service Tempers flare in Heat win over Suns Community Sports Business Latest Stories CEO Rieder leaving Erickson March 31 Harry & David announces new president Ride & Drive: 2015 Chrysler 300 Local businesses still feeling effects of port slowdown Blog: Costco teams up with Citi for its next credit card Real Estate News Housing prices climb 9 percent in Jackson County Big plans on the Butte People In Business People in Business: Feb. 28 People in Business People in Business Transportation CEO Rieder leaving Erickson March 31 Lodging gains bode well for travel industries Medford airport flies past January record Agriculture Harry & David announces new president Warm winter has fruit growers poised for action Briefcase: Business briefs for Feb. 21 1-800-Flowers dumps Harry & David execs Opinion Latest Our View: Small climate steps add up to big ones Letters to the Editor, March 4 Kathleen Parker: The GOP — A tragedy in 52 acts Landgren cartoon: Speeding up baseball Letters to the Editor, March 3 Editorials Our View: Small climate steps add up to big ones Our View: Drawing back the curtain on government Other Views: Brown's list of challenges is lengthy Our View: School attendance bill could backfire Our View: Higher education still getting too little Letters to the Editor Letters to the Editor, March 4 Letters to the Editor, March 3 Letters to the Editor, March 2 Letters to the Editor, March 1 Letters to the Editor, Feb. 28 Columns Kathleen Parker: The GOP — A tragedy in 52 acts Michael Gerson: Scott Walker's cynical comments on faith Kent Bush: Minnie Minoso was famous for the right reasons Dana Milbank: Jeb Bush, CPAC pinata Charles Krauthammer: The fatal flaw in the Iran deal Guest Opinions GUEST OPINION: Police, community should work to prevent profiling Guest Opinion: Don't overregulate Oregon's hemp industry Guest Opinion: Predatory banking practices bilk citizens Guest Opinion: Is less education the answer? Guest Opinion: Bill would shore up legal aid funding Lifestyle Latest stories Lost in Suburbia: The tooth, the whole tooth and nothing but the tooth 5 Things to Do This Weekend (March 6-8) Dear Monty: Home seller seeks to start bidding war Dave Ramsey: What does ‘first right of refusal’ mean? Pantry pride Food Pantry pride Tips for a Pacific Northwest crab feed Prudence Hilburn: Butternut squash a suitable stand-in for sweet potatoes Community blog: Pizza is a canvas for season's freshest veggies Food for Thought: Get creative with after-school snacks Home and Garden Dear Monty: Home seller seeks to start bidding war Paul Rogers: Looking for signs of new life Home Help: Enhance your home-office experience Specialty painting adds wow to your walls Dear Monty: Home seller questions agent ethics Health HealthStyle: Marriage care and maintenance Community blog: How I Became Radical: The Power of Acceptance Community blog: The Guest List: Check! Health Watch: Sticking to your health plan when your family isn’t helping Community blog: Finding Your Indomitable Spirit to Defeat Addiction Hiking Biking Faith Religion briefs, Feb. 27 Religion briefs: Friday, Feb. 20 Religion News: Pope makes surprise shantytown visit Religion briefs: Friday, Feb. 13 RELIGION BRIEFS, Feb. 6 Milestones and Achievements Anniversary: Hofer New arrivals: Sunday, Feb. 8 Columnist for a Day Rogue Healthy Aging Tempo Latest stories SOU Percussion Group presents 'Timber' TMTO presents 'Bye Bye Birdie' Ashland High School presents 'Leading Ladies' Live Music in Local Clubs HAPA plays the Historic Ashland Armory Theater Review: 'Fingersmith' a twisting thriller with love 'Guys and Dolls' a sure bet for dazzling entertainment 'She Stoops' rises on SOU stage TMTO presents 'Bye Bye Birdie' Review: OSF elevates the neglected 'Pericles' Music SOU Percussion Group presents 'Timber' Ashland High School presents 'Leading Ladies' Rogue Valley Symphony showcases Anton Bruckner and Richard Wagner Live Music in Local Clubs HAPA plays the Historic Ashland Armory Community Events Third Fridays showcases local artists Southern Oregon Rod and Custom Show Ashland's First Friday Art Walk showcases new exhibits by regional artists Jacksonville celebrates Chinese New Year Dining Restaurant Inspections: Sunday, March 1 Great Outdoor Grill offers healthful options Restaurant Inspections: Sunday, Feb. 22, 2015 Saigon Xich Lo Vietnamese cuisine The zwickels shall flow Tempo Videos Classifieds Jobs Autos Real Estate FEATURED » Obits Blogs TV Listings Movie Listings Oregon Outdoors Oregon Healthy Living Magazines/Special Sections Business Services NEWS NOW Our View: Small climate steps add up to big ones ... Tennessee man charged with stealing back car from Central Point towyard ... Review: 'Fingersmith' a twisting thriller with love ... Our View: Small climate steps add up to big ones ... Tennessee man charged with stealing back car from Central Point towyard ... Review: 'Fingersmith' a twisting thriller with love ... SUNDAY FOCUS: CLIMATE CHANGE The new normal under climate change? Recent weather patterns could be a preview of what's to come if predictions hold true By Vickie Aldous Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Vickie Aldous Mail Tribune Posted Mar. 1, 2015 @ 12:01 am By Vickie Aldous Mail Tribune Posted Mar. 1, 2015 @ 12:01 am » Social News p bs:newslist StartDate="20121121" EndDate="p bs:datecalc Months="3"" DateSort="1" UseObjects="1" ObjectClass="81" Taxonomywords="2325,665" ExactTaxonomyMatch="1" Image="1" Count="4" --> The low-snowpack winters and smoky summers the Rogue Valley has seen over the last two years could be a preview of what's to come if predictions are right. Climate change could create winners and losers in agriculture, tourism, forestry, housing and other sectors. At Fry Family Farms, co-owner Steve Fry says warmer weather has pros and cons for growers. His family-run business produces vegetables and flowers for local farmers' markets and grocery stores. "With longer, drier springs and no-freeze falls, our season's actually extended," Fry says. But mild winters and light snowpack also mean less water to feed the valley's irrigation districts. Fry says his farms have good water rights to local creeks, but farmers with more junior water rights — who are the first to lose out during droughts — are hurt when irrigation districts have to cut back. To conserve water, Fry has installed drip-irrigation systems that feed water to plant roots and reduce evaporation. He also plants barley as a winter cover crop on parts of his land in October. It can live off winter rain without irrigation. After the barley is cut in July, Fry plants fall vegetables such as spinach, carrots, turnips and beets. Fry says early spring weather can hurt orchard owners when trees bloom too soon and are then hit by frost. Warm daytime temperatures in mid-February triggered what may turn out to be the earliest peach and pear tree bloom on record in the Rogue Valley. Orchard owners scrambled to deploy fans and other methods to warm trees during cold, frosty nights. From 1895 to 2011, average temperatures in the Northwest increased 1.3 degrees. Temperatures are predicted to climb 3.3 to 9.7 degrees by 2070 to 2099, as compared to 1970 to 1999, according to a 2014 National Climate Assessment produced by hundreds of experts guided by a federal advisory committee. "The average temperature goes up and down, but the trend over the last 100 years has been up. We are in global warming," says Medford-based National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Sandler. "Ocean levels are rising and ice is melting. Globally, there are signs warming is occurring." The question of whether the warming is caused by humans is more difficult to answer, he says. "The general consensus among a majority of scientists is that the warming is human-caused," Sandler says. "I know some people don't believe the globe is warming, but among members of the scientific community, there's no disputing the globe is warming as a whole." Sandler says the past two years of warm winters with low snowpack locally cannot be attributed to global warming. He says no specific weather event or pattern can be directly linked to climate change. He compared climate change to a baseball slugger on steroids. The player will hit more home runs over a season, but no single home run can be attributed solely to steroid use. Oregon has had milder winters than normal because of an unusually persistent ridge of high pressure that causes air to flow around us to the north, where it cools off and then pummels the Midwest and East Coast with cold temperatures and snow. Normally high pressure ridges dissipate after a few weeks. No one knows exactly why this one has stuck around for so long, Sandler says. Fortunately, a storm front this weekend is bringing much-needed rain and snow to the valley and mountains. Greg Jones, director of the division of business, communication and the environment at Southern Oregon University, also says the region's two years of back-to-back low snow years cannot be specifically blamed on climate change. "But the past two years have been the warmest on record in most of the western United States and Oregon," says Jones, who is internationally known for his research on how climate change could impact the wine industry. "Climate change models are saying our region should have more rainfall and less snowfall." One signature of climate change is that rainfall is not spread out, he notes. "We had a big event with three inches of rain in three days. That could be the future," says Jones, referring to an early February rainstorm that toppled trees and flooded parts of the valley. Ashland recorded 3.93 inches of rainfall over 48 hours — its third-highest two-day total since 1892. Similar deluges in 1964 and 1996 triggered historic floods when rain fell on snow, causing rapid melting. A lack of substantial snowpack kept the early February storm from unleashing another major flood, weather officials say. Storms flushed logs and other woody debris into Lost Creek Lake north of Shady Cove, creating the largest logjam in the lake in decades. Officials are pondering how to remove the wood before the start of waterskiing season in late May. Jones says less snow in the mountains impacts reservoirs, irrigation and agriculture. "A big issue is we need to manage water differently. Now we capture snowmelt in the summer. We may need to capture more rain in the winter and hold it," he says. A years-long effort is underway to determine whether it's cost-effective to pipe miles of irrigation canals, which lose water to evaporation and seepage. Canals can lose 50 percent of their water during delivery, according to supporters of the Water for Irrigation, Streams & Economy piping project in Jackson County. At the Mt. Ashland Ski Area, a lack of snow shuttered the resort all last winter, prompting it to take out a $750,000 Small Business Administration disaster loan to stay afloat. After opening in late December, the ski area had to close Jan. 6 because of low snow, but then reopened Feb. 7 after a storm brought snow to the mountains. This weekend's storm has created the best conditions of the year and has ski officials hopeful the season will stretch into mid-April. Ski area General Manager Hiram Towle says he believes the recent low snow years are part of a natural weather cycle, and not due to long-term climate change.  "I'm not fully subscribing to that yet," he says. That being said, the ski area is adapting to less snow. Workers harvested snow off the parking lot and other parts of the mountain to use on ski runs. They use snow groomers to improve conditions, Towle says. The ski area is also looking to branch out. "We're working on a business model that will better allow us to weather low snow years by having more summer operations. Zip lines, rock climbing walls and disc golf are some of the activities that could help us weather lean years," Towle says. In Ashland, historically low snow last winter in the watershed prompted the city to connect to Medford's water by completing the Talent-Ashland-Phoenix water line. The line already extended to Talent, but finishing the pipe had been on the back burner in Ashland for years before drought pushed officials to fast-track the project. Medford gets its water from the larger underground Big Butte Springs system, whereas Ashland relies primarily on precipitation and snowmelt that flows into Ashland Creek and collects in Reeder Reservoir. In addition to low snow, the Rogue Valley has seen heavy smoke from wildfires two years in a row. If temperatures rise by 2.2 degrees, the Rogue Valley and mountains straddling the Oregon and California border will see a 300 to 400 percent increase in areas burned by wildfire, according to the 2014 National Climate Assessment. The Cascade Mountains to the east will see a 400 to 500 percent increase in acreage burned, the assessment predicts. Increased wildfire could worsen respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses in nearby populations because of smoke and particulate pollution, the assessment predicts. "We're very aware of smoke. We're serving a vulnerable population," says Melissa Thickett, director of resident services at the Rogue Valley Manor retirement community in Medford. "We stay abreast of conditions and warn residents to stay indoors, especially if they have health conditions that could be affected by smoke." Rogue Valley Manor Director of Marketing Lisa Mandell says she doesn't know of any people who decided against moving here because of smoke concerns. "I wish we could have a crystal ball and know how the weather will change over time," Mandell says. "We're blessed to have a spectacular climate, and I hope that doesn't change." The two say the area's mild climate is attractive to people from across the country. "This winter was especially wonderful for people coming to the area," Thickett says. A consistent influx of retirees to Southern Oregon has been fueling everything from real estate to expansion of the health care industry. In 2013, when summer wildfire smoke was at its worst, the Oregon Shakespeare Festival canceled four performances at its outdoor Allen Elizabethan Theatre, which can seat 1,190 playgoers, says OSF Media Communications Manager Amy Richard. OSF canceled one performance because of smoke last summer, she says. "There is lost revenue if people choose not to come. It's not just that air quality is bad for visitors, the cast and crew. If we have lengthy smoky periods, people just don't come," Richard says. "That impacts not just the Elizabethan, but the (indoor) Angus Bowmer and Thomas theaters, too." She says OSF supports Ashland's efforts to thin wildfire fuels in the forested hills above town. The city is in the midst of a multiyear, multimillion-dollar project to trim trees and brush from thousands of acres in partnership with the U.S. Forest Service, The Nature Conservancy and the Lomakatsi Restoration Project. Brian Ballou, spokesman for the Oregon Department of Forestry, says this year's mild winter is setting the area up for another busy wildfire season. He says forecasts call for intense fire years to become the norm. "We're in for more aggressive wildfire seasons," he says. "The cost of firefighting goes up, and firefighters are engaged in fighting fires more months of the year. With very dry vegetation, typically we have more intense fire behavior and a risk of more fires. Fire seasons will be more and more expensive if forecasts play out. It's not a rosy situation at all when you look at future scenarios." As more people move into forested areas, fighting wildfires becomes more difficult and expensive, Ballou notes. He predicts agencies that fight fires will face more competition for resources such as contract firefighting crews and helicopters. Ballou says it makes sense to invest money in proactive forest-thinning projects to reduce wildfire fuels. Fuels reduction is less expensive than fighting intense wildfires, he says. "Doing well-planned mitigation would be a far more effective way of protecting resources, reducing the number of days smoke is in the air and cutting firefighting costs — not to mention preventing the loss of homes to wildfires. Lots of projects are being done strategically to protect populated areas," he says. "There is hope. There really is." Staff reporter Vickie Aldous can be reached at 541-776-4486 or [email protected] . Follow her on Twitter at www.twitter.com/VickieAldous . By Vickie Aldous Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Vickie Aldous Mail Tribune Posted Mar. 1, 2015 @ 12:01 am » Comment or view comments /* $( document ).ready(function() { // Jquery mobile is trying to style the button and leaving a blank gry button on top of a white button $("#viafouracoms .vf-comment-controls li.vf-right").html(' Submit '); });*/ » STAY INFORMED Email NewsLetter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. calendar Connect with MailTribune.com Facebook Twitter RSS Back to top Reader Services Reader Services Home Subscriptions Subscriber controls Contact us Submissions Photos Events Letters to the editor Corrections Announcements Obituaries Story ideas Since you asked Alerts Email Alerts RSS Feeds Text Alerts Advertise Media Kit Home Products and services Ad rates Advertising contacts Mail Tribune Daily Tidings The Nickel Shop Our Valley Blogs Stay Informed Email newsletter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. 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