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Saving room for more runoff Photo by Jim Craven An angler waits for a bite Monday next to a footbridge at Lost Creek reservoir. Water will flow under the bridge when the lake is full, but engineers have delayed filling it because they expect snowpack runoff to be the area's heaviest since 1929. Corps keeps reservoirs unfilled By PAUL FATTIG Anticipating what could be the biggest snow runoff in the Rogue Basin in 70 years, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers isn't plunging into filling Lost Creek and Applegate reservoirs this spring. Normally, both are full by May 1. Public meetings Who : U.S. Army Corps of Engineers What : Public meetings to review scheduled water releases from Lost Creek and Applegate reservoirs; a management plan will be developed afterward. When and where : 7:30 p.m. May 17, Bureau of Land Management office, 3040 Biddle Road, Medford; and 7:30 p.m. May 18, Curry County Courthouse annex, 94235 Moore St., Gold Beach. But recent snow surveys in the mountains ringing the Rogue Basin indicate the region may have the biggest runoff since 1929, according to a Corps hydrologist's calculations. While they are stopping short of predicting flooding, officials say the Rogue and Applegate rivers will run higher than normal this summer. "It's possible it could come out with a cat's meow," observed Russ Davidson, a hydrologist who schedules the Corps' reservoir operations. "But that water does have to come out of the mountains." Davidson, poring over snowpack records -- including depth and water content -- back to 1929, concluded that the mean runoff from April through September in the basin could be the largest ever. "I'm not trying to liken it to any specific year, but it could be the greatest we've had," Davidson said, adding, "Before next fall, all of that water has got to go down the rivers." The Corps stopped filling the two reservoirs in March to keep flood storage space in reserve should a rapid runoff occur. However, both are expected to be full for Memorial Day weekend. The basin snowpack is at 207 percent of normal. "Any kind of rapid melt could create a flooding situation," warned Stan Fox, snow hydrologist for the Natural Resources Conservation Service. "We'd like it to be melting a little faster than it has been. "The weather could shift to a higher temperature pattern any time now," he added. "And we don't want to get caught with some 100-degree days with the snowpack we have now." Although his department's records only go back to the mid-1960s, Fox said, snowpack surveys indicate the potential for a runoff higher than anything since then, and he doesn't question the Corps' prediction. "There hasn't been a lot of snow melt this year -- that snow is still up there," he said, reiterating that a fast melt could cause flood problems in the lower elevations. For instance, the snow depth at Crater Lake National Park is 140 inches while the top of Mount Ashland is buried in 226 inches of snow. Although they are short of records, the depth coupled with the water content has officials concerned about heavy runoff. The long-range weather forecast for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades calls for below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation, according to Mike O'Brien, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Medford. However, that weather could deviate dramatically in parts of the region such as the Rogue Valley, and temperatures could fluctuate for short periods, he cautioned. Meanwhile, the Lost Creek reservoir water level is at 1864.4 feet above sea level. At full pool, the water level is at 1872 feet. The Applegate reservoir is at 1973.8 feet, well below the full pool of 1987 feet. And the water depth is increasing by only two- or three-tenths of a foot per day. "As far as runoffs, we haven't seen any significant amounts yet, but the potential still exists for a high runoff," said Steve Watkins, supervisory mechanical engineer at Lost Creek Dam. The Corps is working closely with the National Weather Service as it develops a plan for spring and summer releases, he said. "Typically, those types of storms (heavy warm rains) are encountered earlier in the season," he said. "But there is still a potential for that." Although the heavy snowpack doesn't mean there will be flooding, it does mean the Rogue and Applegate rivers will be flowing strong this spring and summer. "Water normally released in May will be added to the water that will be discharged later this year," he said. "People can expect higher than normal flows." Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 1999, Medford, Oregon USA