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Those hoping for clear skies this Memorial Day weekend may be in for a letdown. With a blend of drizzle, gray skies, occasional downpours and cooler temperatures, the Rogue Valley has seen a mixture of shorts and sweatshirt weather over the past week, and meteorologists say that weather pattern will likely continue through Monday. "It looks like we may have a relatively dry Saturday, but as we get into Sunday and Monday, we have slight chances of showers and thunderstorms,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Nieuwenhuis.   Although your chance of getting caught in a shower this weekend will linger, the forecast is less gloomy than it's been. “The good news is those chances are smaller than they’ve been over the past week,” Nieuwenhuis said. “It’s going to be warmer too. We’re looking at weather in the 80s Sunday and Monday.” Nieuwenhuis attributes the current weather to high pressure over Alaska, which is causing moisture to remain in the system. “It’s not a typical pattern that we see around here,” Nieuwenhuis said. “It’s what we call a 'blocking pattern,' meaning what comes through tends to stay." He explained that this weather system works opposite of the warm, clear days the Rogue Valley saw during the winter months. “Whereas we’ve been stuck under high pressure, which kept us dry and warm, now we’re stuck under low pressure that keeps us wetter and cooler,” Nieuwenhuis said.  The weather pattern is one Nieuwenhuis hasn't seen in the three years he's been in the Rogue Valley. With this system, prediction models used for forecasting are a challenge because the patterns are all over the map. “We usually depend a lot on models, and a lot of the time when those models agree, we can trust that,” Nieuwenhuis said. “In the case of this kind of pattern, we can’t.” Because it's a slow-moving weather pattern, Nieuwenhuis predicts it will take a while to return to normal. “What I tend to do in a situation like this is go for persistence,” he said. “It looks a little bit dryer, but not significantly. We’re still going to be dealing with showers.” In spite of persistently gray skies for many days, plus occasional downpours in isolated areas, the official amount of precipitation recorded at the airport has been low. “The airport seems to be a dry spot, so that’s not showing a lot in the reports,” he said. “Places like Klamath Falls got almost three-quarters of an inch.” Through Wednesday, the official Medford reading showed only .17 inches of rain so far in May, down from the normal .86 inches.  But, as many others can attest, National Weather Service employees have had rain at their homes that wasn't recorded at the Rogue Valley International-Medford Airport. By 2:46 p.m. Thursday, the NWS had issued a short-term hazardous weather warning as a thunderstorm crackled across the Rogue Valley, causing torrential rains in Phoenix and Medford. “At the station, we’ve only got 9/100ths of an inch,” meteorologist Michelle Cohen said as a downpour pounded downtown Medford. In contrast to the airport's light precipitation, the NWS received reports of pea-sized hail in southwest Medford and recorded about a third of an inch in east Medford. “We got about a third of an inch of rain by Rogue Valley Manor,” Cohen said. “The quickest report I heard was a third of an inch in 15 minutes.” “That’s the nature of showers: Some people get it. Some people don’t,” Nieuwenhuis said. Clear summer skies will return to the valley in time, although it may take more than a week. “That pattern is changing, but it will take some time. We’ll get back into our normal summer pattern eventually,” Nieuwenhuis said. “I don’t expect a full return to our summer pattern until closer to June, if not in June.” Nick Morgan is a Mail Tribune news aide. Reach him at [email protected] or 541-776-4477.