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Optimist puts hoof on other foot for hunters By MARK FREEMAN Highlights Here are some of the highlights from the December 1999 blacktail deer herd-composition counts for Jackson and Josephine counties. ROGUE UNIT 26 bucks per 100 does in 1999, up from 17 in '98 and 23 in '97. 43 fawns per 100 does, up from 42 last year and down from 45 in '97. CHETCO UNIT 11 bucks per 100 does, down from 15 in '98 and 12 in '97. 51 fawns per 100 does, down from 54 in '98 and 55 in '97. APPLEGATE UNIT 28 bucks per 100 does, up from 26 in '98 but down from 32 in '97. 32 fawns per 100 does, down from 69 in '98 and 47 in '97. EVANS CREEK UNIT 26 bucks per 100 does, up from 23 in '98 and 24 in '97. 24 fawns per 100 does, down from 51 in '98 and 53 in '97. SOUTHWEST OREGON TOTAL 25 bucks per 100 does, up from 20 in '98 and 24 in '97. 49 fawns per 100 does, down from 56 in '98 but up from 48 in '97. Southern Oregon deer hunters who are frustrated at poor buck-hunting success can start the new decade with the same, old and tired wait-till-next-year mantra they've chanted throughout the last one. But this year's revelry comes a bit heartier and is accompanied by visual aids, courtesy of a state wildlife biologist who is taking his upbeat message of improving Southern Oregon deer herds to hunters this winter. John Thiebes, the ODFW's Rogue Watershed District wildlife biologist, says last fall's poor general blacktail hunting season for riflemen has created a deer herd teeming with leftover bucks that hunters missed last fall for a variety of reasons. The five hunting units that make up the Rogue District now sport a hefty 25 bucks for every 100 does, up 24 percent from last year. The district's main hunting grounds, the Rogue Unit, also has its best buck ratios since the early 1990s, with 26 bucks per 100 does. That's up 35 percent from the 1998 count of 17 bucks per 100 does. Pessimists might say the stats, all there in special computer-generated spread sheets, do little more than quantify just how poorly buck hunters did last fall, when general-season harvest was so low in the Rogue Unit that fewer than one in every 10 hunters likely bagged a buck. But the optimists will say that higher buck ratios often suggest better chances at seeing bucks in the cross hairs during the following season. And Thiebes is first-team All-Optimist. "Sure, the buck ratios are pretty positive, based on the negative results of the buck-hunting season (of 1999)," Thiebes says. ``Barring a bad winter, we have a heck of a buck ratio and the prospects for a good season next fall. "There's always a silver lining," he says. "There's always something positive to think of." Thiebes' positive leanings highlight fall deerherd composition reports compiled by Thiebes from pre-winter counting forays done by Thiebes and other district biologists. Each December, agency biologists drive or hike specific routes to count the bucks, does and fawns they see. The counts generate buck-to-doe and buck-to-fawn ratios used to compare annual herd compositions heading into winter each year. Another spring count generates buck ratios and an overall population estimate. The Rogue Unit's deer numbers are likely still 30 percent lower than they were in the mid-1990s, Thiebes says, so consider all the numbers against that backdrop. What might be most telling, though, is why the buck ratios have increased. And the there-are-losers-for-every-winner adage is clear here -- last fall's dismal hunting successes have a lot to do with the current crop of bucks. The main reasons for poor hunter success last fall likely lie in what happened last August and what didn't happen last October. A mid-August storm that dumped two inches of rain on the mountains created an unseasonably rich crop of new late-summer grass and brush in the high elevations where deer spend their summers. That free food kept the deer remaining scattered on high-elevation prairies, where they had to work less for their daily meals, slept more and generally hung out with no real pressures to move. Usually, the area's blacktails predominantly are out of high-elevation summer range by mid-October's start of the general elk season. This year, many stayed high in the mountains through October. "We saw deer standing in two feet of snow at high elevations," Thiebes says. Put these factors all together and the results are that deer herds already down by one third did not migrate into traditional buck-hunting areas, resulting in a very low fall buck harvest that, in turn, has caused the December buck ratios to jump optimistically upward. Or, as Thiebes says: "The counts are pretty positive, based on the negative results of the '99 buck-hunting season." And here are some other positives and negatives hunters can glean from the December herd-composition data, based on whether you view the forest as half-full of deer, or half-empty. POSITIVE -- The hunting units of Jackson and Josephine counties together have 25 bucks per 100 does going into the winter. That's up five buck per 100 does from last year. NEGATIVE -- Yeah, but the buck ratio after the 1997 season was 24 bucks per 100 does, and the 1998 general hunting season stunk. That year, 8,685 hunters tagged just 1,235 bucks for a 14 percent success rate. POSITIVE -- At 26 bucks per 100 does, the Rogue Unit is way up from last year and significantly up from 1997 in its buck counts. NEGATIVE -- Yeah, but the Chetco Unit's down from 15 bucks per 100 does to 11 bucks per 100 does in '98. And the Applegate Unit has jumped up slightly, but it's still down from '97. So, if you go west of I-5 to hunt, the silver lining looks more like dull chrome. POSITIVE -- Fawn ratios are up in most of the units and sub-units surveyed last month in Southwest Oregon. NEGATIVE -- Districtwide, the counts are down to 49 fawns per 100 does, from 56 fawns in '98. And if the winter turns out as harsh as predicted, look for a poor crop of yearling deer and adults in 2000. The yin and yang tug-o'-war can go on and on. (Staff writer Mark Freeman covers the outdoors for the Mail Tribune. Call him at 776-4470, or e-mail him at [email protected] ) Outdoor Journal main page Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 2000, Medford, Oregon USA