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NW will warm up, says study Pollution gets blame, but some disagree By Paul Fattig The Earth�s atmosphere is warming because of human-caused pollution, creating a climate change that will have a devastating effect on the globe, including the Pacific Northwest. Either that or some scientists are just blowing a lot of hot air. It all depends on who is doing the telling. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations-sponsored group, reported Monday that global warming sparked by human activity will push northwest temperatures up an average 5 degrees by the year 2050. Moreover, the change brought about by pollution � mainly from burning hydrocarbons � will cause a regional average increase of 5 percent more rain each winter, more flooding, less snow and more wildfires during what is expected to be hotter and drier summers. The 19-page report was a summary of 1,000 pages of research into "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability," conducted by some 700 scientists worldwide. "Most of the Earth�s people will be on the losing side" of the impact caused by the climate change, said Harvard University environmental scientist James J. McCarthy, panel co-chairman. Basic human needs like food and clean water are at risk, warned panel chairman Robert Watson, chief scientist of the World Bank. "Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt," Watson said. The report reflected similar conclusions drawn by other researchers, including one released late in 1999 by the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington. But Arthur Robinson, an independent research chemist and founder of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, strongly disagrees. "Global warming is just a fraud," he said. "That�s just nonsense. "The United Nations can keep putting out this propaganda, but it isn�t supported by science," he added. The Illinois Valley resident, who has a doctorate in chemistry from the University of California at San Diego and is a former research director of the Linus Pauling Institute in Menlo Park, Calif., said a review of scientific literature by his group revealed no pollution-caused climate change. More than 17,000 American scientists have signed a document supporting that conclusion, he said. "There is not a shred of evidence that human activity has had any affect at all on the climate," he said. "There is no evidence humans are warming the planet. But there is a great amount of evidence that the sun is warming it." He believes that fluctuations in solar activity are responsible for continually changing the Earth�s climate. Scientific evidence in the form of plant fossils indicates the Earth�s atmosphere was slightly warmer 3,000 years ago than it is now, he said. "Our temperature has always fluctuated," he said. "The average temperature was warmer during the Middle Ages a thousand years ago. About 300 years ago we went through a little ice age. "For the last 300 years, we�ve been gradually warming up," he added. "The fluctuation has been in lockstep with solar activity. The scientific record is very clear on that." Robinson also argues that mankind�s production of carbon dioxide is increasing vegetation. "It�s good for the environment � it makes plants grow faster," he said. But Tom Dimitre, chair of the Rogue Group Sierra Club, says he has no doubts about the validity of the IPCC study. "Certainly the United Nations needs to commit to reduced emissions," he said. "And the United States, as the biggest polluter in the world, needs to take the lead in reducing those emissions. "It may be too late now but we should be doing something to try to change it," he added. Meanwhile, the IPCC report, which concludes the average temperature will rise an average 10 degrees by the year 2100, said poor countries would bear the brunt of devastating changes caused by global warming. "Projected climate changes during the 21st century have the potential to lead to future large-scale and possible irreversible changes in Earth systems" with "continental and global consequences," the report said. According to the IPCC, the climate changes will lead to: More "freak" weather conditions such as cyclones, floods and droughts. Massive displacement of populations in the worst-affected areas. Potentially enormous loss of life. Greater risk from diseases such as malaria as the mosquito widens its reach. Extinction of entire species as their habitat is wiped out. Additional information on the IPCC report is available on its Web site at www.ipcc.ch For further information on Robinson�s perspective, check out www.oism.org/pproject . Reach reporter Paul Fattig at 776-4496 or e-mail him at [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.