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SUNDAY FOCUS: OUR WEATHER The El Nino effect By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune Posted Aug. 2, 2015 @ 2:00 am Updated Aug 3, 2015 at 11:26 AM By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune Posted Aug. 2, 2015 @ 2:00 am Updated Aug 3, 2015 at 11:26 AM --> Facts about El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): • Originates in ... » Read more X Facts about El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): • Originates in the tropical Pacific • Occurs every 2-7 years • Affects global atmospheric circulation • During the warm phase, called "El Niño," sea surface temperatures warm, trade winds collapse and precipitation patterns shift • During the cold phase, referred to as "La Niña," sea surface temperatures cool and trade winds strengthen ENSO effects on the U.S.: El Niño • Warmer winters across the northern U.S. • Gulf states cooler and wetter • California can be wetter or drier • Pacific salmon and other fisheries disrupted • Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic La Niña • Equally dramatic, often opposite effects on the U.S. — NOAA » Social News p bs:newslist StartDate="20121121" EndDate="p bs:datecalc Months="3"" DateSort="1" UseObjects="1" ObjectClass="81" Taxonomywords="2325,665" ExactTaxonomyMatch="1" Image="1" Count="4" --> Out in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, a force is stirring that could have meteorological impacts across the world, including the Rogue Valley, in the coming months. Called El Niño, it is a warming of ocean water that generally results in wetter, cooler winters in the U.S. Gulf and Southern states and warmer, drier winters in the northwest. And somewhere stuck in the middle is Southern Oregon. If history repeats itself, El Niño may mean more rain for our drought-plagued region. The past two times the phenomenon was documented, October 1982 through March 1983 and October 1997 through March 1998, Medford felt the effects through rain. In the 1982-83 period, almost 19 inches fell, about five inches above the average for that period. In 1997-98, close to 16.5 inches fell, about 2.5 inches above the norm. "We've seen conditions develop to where we're very confident right now that as we go through the remainder of this fall and into the winter of 2015-2016, we will see El Niño conditions continue," says Mike Stavish, National Weather Service science and operations officer in Medford. "They're being observed now, but they're going to mature and likely continue as we go through the upcoming winter." The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association predicts a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through next winter, and an 80 percent chance it will last into early spring. Wind and water The El Niño phenomenon starts with wind and water. The trade winds, which typically blow east to west in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, push sun-warmed ocean water with it, to the point where surface level waters are warmer in the west than in the east. "In that pattern, you would typically have nutrient-rich water (in the east). A lot of stuff grows better in cool water," Stavish says. But every two to seven years, the trade winds weaken. Cooler eastern Pacific waters warm up. Atmospheric flow is impacted, and the jetstream extends down to the southeast. "El Niño is not a storm. It’s not creating the storm," says Tom DiLiberto, NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist. "But it’s helping lead toward where these storms may go across the U.S." NOAA satellite images illustrate the warmed water as a red band around the equator. This year's visualization, taken in July, looks similar to images taken in November 1997, in the midst of the last historic El Niño event. And scientists are confident this one will stick around. "We have most of the ingredients in place," says Kelly Redmond, regional climatologist at the Western Region Climate Center in Nevada. "It's pretty impressive on the satellite." Impacts El Niño typically results in warmer winters across the northwest U.S., while the Gulf states experience cooler, wetter weather. There are fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, but salmon fisheries in the Pacific can be disrupted. Closer to home on the West Coast, El Niño brings more precipitation in central and southern parts of California, but drier winters in Washington and Northern Oregon. It also means a slight rise in temperatures throughout the Pacific Northwest. "When you look at the West Coast, and if you look at charts that show you where things are going to depart from normal, you're going to see drier-than-normal conditions in Washington, and wetter-than-normal conditions in California," Stavish says. The crystal ball for southern and central Oregon is murkier, but more precipitation this winter is a solid possibility, Stavish says. Nothing that would break any records, but after the current drought, it could feel sopping wet. "Let's say with the upcoming winter we don't stay dry, we do get a fair amount of precipitation, but it's not well above normal," Stavish says. "It's still going to feel like a wet winter relative to winters of the recent past." Nearby Northern California is likely to get pummeled, however. During the 1982-83 El Niño, more than 58 inches of rain fell on Mt. Shasta — the city — almost double the 30-inch average, according to Weather Service records. During the same period in 1997-98, the city received 59 inches. "Mt. Shasta City gets a pretty good slug of precipitation," Stavish says. El caveats With weather's fickle nature, all these predictions could be for naught, officials say. The same phenomenon looked promising in 2014, too. An NOAA report from July 2014 reads, "The chance of El Niño is about 70 percent during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80 percent during the fall and early winter." But nothing happened. The conditions fizzled, and the system didn't mature to full strength. Additionally, having historic data for two past El Niño events isn't a big enough sample size to say with full confidence similar rainfall will repeat. "Past performance doesn't always guarantee future results," Stavish says. There are other weather-related factors to consider, too. Another look at the July 2015 satellite image shows additional splotches of red up and down the West Coast of North America, blobs of warmer water that have been in place for more than a year. How they interact with storms coming ashore also remains to be seen. "They sort of formed out of nowhere," Redmond says. But, DiLiberto says, the fact that forecasters are expecting the event to peak as a strong one is significant. "We always have to kind of caveat it, because El Niño is just one thing that can affect the weather," DiLiberto says. "It’s just tilting the odds. With loaded dice, doesn’t mean you still can’t roll snake eyes. "It all depends. The weather can always throw you a curve ball." Reach reporter Ryan Pfeil at 541-776-4468 or [email protected] . Follow him at www.twitter.com/ryanpfeil . By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune Posted Aug. 2, 2015 @ 2:00 am Updated Aug 3, 2015 at 11:26 AM » Comment or view comments /* $( document ).ready(function() { // Jquery mobile is trying to style the button and leaving a blank gry button on top of a white button $("#viafouracoms .vf-comment-controls li.vf-right").html(' Submit '); });*/ » STAY INFORMED Email NewsLetter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. calendar Connect with MailTribune.com Facebook Twitter RSS Back to top Reader Services Reader Services Home Subscriptions Subscriber controls Contact us Submissions Photos Events Letters to the editor Corrections Announcements Obituaries Story ideas Since you asked Alerts Email Alerts RSS Feeds Text Alerts Advertise Media Kit Home Products and services Ad rates Advertising contacts Propel Marketing Mail Tribune Daily Tidings The Nickel Shop Our Valley Blogs Mobile Site Stay Informed Email newsletter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. 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