Document text
Principal Investigator: Akihiro Nishi
Organization: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES
Fiscal Year: 2024
Award: $134,811
Funding agency: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
PROJECT SUMMARY (ABSTRACT)
Contact network epidemiology is a compelling epidemiologic framework that aims to model dynamic interactions
of people over their social networks in order to track infection cascades, especially for communicable diseases.
Network-based simulations in contact network epidemiology can incorporate variations in people’s attributes and
behaviors (e.g. age, race/ethnicity, wearing a facial mask), their interaction patterns (e.g. homophily or
assortativity), and social structures (e.g. social norms and policies including non-pharmaceutical interventions
[NPIs]). Although obtaining precise network data is challenging, it can guide us to identify potential working
network intervention strategies, which may prove beneficial in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic.
Using the framework of network interventions, a pilot simulation study proposed alternative NPI strategies to the
stay-at-home order, in which transmission is mitigated while people’s socioeconomic activities are sustained
(Nishi et al, 2020, PNAS). In the most effective dividing + balancing groups strategy, a social group (e.g.
employees of the same workplace and students of the same school) is divided randomly into two subgroups with
an equal number to reduce the number of physical contacts. If it is operated in a spatial manner, additional space
for the subgroups is prepared; if it is operated in a temporal manner, the two subgroups will engage in their
activities during different business hours. Therefore, the strategy would allow people to engage in the same
magnitude of economic activities. The strength of the proposed strategy is that it does not require actual network
data, which is difficult to obtain in most cases.
Following the pilot study, this research seeks to create other novel NPI strategies for infectious disease control
(the targets are both COVID-19 and other emerging diseases) (Aim 1). This research also seeks to create novel
network intervention strategies for vaccine allocation (Aim 2). The proposed strategies for mitigating an epidemic
and optimizing vaccine allocation will not, in principle, require actual network data. Therefore, their potential
effect needs to be examined using network-based simulations with realistic assumptions or using other
approaches, including mathematical modeling. The utilized social network will be based on a sample city of
10,000 individuals (Nishi et al, 2020, PNAS) and various network structures that are publicly available (the use
of secondary data). Moreover, this research will analyze the role of early warning signals (EWS), which has been
developed in non-linear dynamical systems in the infectious disease control context. I plan to use the 76
California County COVID-19 data (Aim 3).
Terms: <2019 novel corona virus><2019 novel coronavirus><2019-nCoV><Address><Age><Agreement><Application procedure><Area Under Curve><Behavior><Behavioral Sciences><Binding><Businesses><COVID crisis><COVID epidemic><COVID pandemic><COVID-19><COVID-19 crisis><COVID-19 epidemic><COVID-19 era><COVID-19 global health crisis><COVID-19 global pandemic><COVID-19 health crisis><COVID-19 pandemic><COVID-19 period><COVID-19 public health crisis><COVID-19 virus><COVID-19 years><COVID19 virus><CV-19><California><Case Fatality Rates><Cause of Death><Cell Communication and Signaling><Cell Signaling><Cessation of life><Circulation><Cities><CoV-2><CoV2><Communicable Diseases><Communities><Coronavirus Infectious Disease 2019><Country><County><Crowding><Data><Death><Development><Diagnosis><Disease><Disease Outbreaks><Disorder><Early Diagnosis><Early Intervention><Economics><Employee><Epidemiology><Ethnic Origin><Ethnicity><Event><Exhibits><Face><Failure><Fatigue><France><Friends><Friendships><Goals><Grippe><Home><Hour><Household><Individual><Infection><Infectious Disease Pathway><Infectious Diseases><Infectious Disorder><Influenza><Intervention><Intervention Strategies><Intracellular Communication and Signaling><Investigation><Japan><Job Location><Job Place><Job Setting><Job Site><Knowledge><Lack of Energy><Location><M tuberculosis infection><M. tb infection><M. tuberculosis infection><M.tb infection><M.tuberculosis infection><MTB infection><Masks><Math><Math Models><Mathematics><Measures><Mental Health><Mental Hygiene><Modeling><Molecular Interaction><Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection><Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection><Network-based><Non-linear Dynamic><Non-linear Dynamics><Nonlinear Dynamic><Nonlinear Dynamics><Older Population><Outbreaks><Pattern><Persons><Physical distancing><Pilot Projects><Play><Predisposition><Psychological Health><Public Health><Quarantine><RNA vaccine><RNA-based vaccine><Race><Races><Reproduction><Republic of Korea><Research><Role><SARS corona virus 2><SARS-CO-V2><SARS-COVID-2><SARS-CoV-2><SARS-CoV-2 epidemic><SARS-CoV-2 global health crisis><SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic><SARS-CoV-2 pandemic><SARS-CoV2><SARS-associated corona virus 2><SARS-associated coronavirus 2><SARS-coronavirus-2><SARS-coronavirus-2 epidemic><SARS-coronavirus-2 pandemic><SARS-related corona virus 2><SARS-related coronavirus 2><SARSCoV2><Sampling><Schools><Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus 2><Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome CoV 2><Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Corona Virus 2><Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Coronavirus 2><Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoV 2><Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoV 2 epidemic><Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoV 2 pandemic><Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-associated coronavirus 2><Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related coronavirus 2><Severe acute respiratory syndrome associated corona virus 2><Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2><Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 epidemic><Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic><Severe acute respiratory syndrome related corona virus 2><Signal Transduction><Signal Transduction Systems><Signaling><Social Distance><Social Network><Social Policies><South Korea><Specific qualifier value><Specified><Structure><Students><Subgroup><Susceptibility><TB infection><Techniques><Time><Transmission><Tuberculosis><Vaccinated><Vaccines><Variant><Variation><Work Location><Work Place><Work-Site><Workplace><Worksite><Wuhan coronavirus><ages><biological signal transduction><coronavirus disease 2019><coronavirus disease 2019 crisis><coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic><coronavirus disease 2019 global health crisis><coronavirus disease 2019 global pandemic><coronavirus disease 2019 health crisis><coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic><coronavirus disease 2019 public health crisis><coronavirus disease 2019 virus><coronavirus disease crisis><coronavirus disease epidemic><coronavirus disease pandemic><coronavirus disease-19><coronavirus disease-19 global pandemic><coronavirus disease-19 pandemic><coronavirus disease-19 virus><coronavirus infectious disease-19><deploy vaccines><develop a vaccine><develop vaccines><development of a vaccine><developmental><disease control><disorder control><disparities in race><disparity due to race><disparity in ethnic><disseminated TB><disseminated tuberculosis><distribute vaccines><dynamic system><dynamical system><early detection><economic><epidemic containment><epidemic control><epidemic mitigation><epidemic response><epidemiologic><epidemiological><ethnic based disparity><ethnic disadvantage><ethnic disparity><ethnic inequality><ethnic inequity><ethnicity disparity><faces><facial><hCoV19><high risk><homes><improved><inequality due to race><inequity due to race><infection due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis><infection risk><interventional strategy><isolation/quarantine><mRNA vaccine><mRNA-based vaccine><mathematic model><mathematical model><mathematical modeling><nCoV2><new vaccines><next generation vaccines><novel><novel vaccines><older groups><older individuals><older person><operation><operations><pandemic disease preparedness><pandemic planning><pandemic preparedness><pandemic readiness><pathogen><physical conditioning><physical health><pilot study><public health relevance><race based disparity><race based inequality><race based inequity><race disparity><race related disparity><race related inequality><race related inequity><racial><racial background><racial disparity><racial inequality><racial inequity><racial origin><racially unequal><severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 global health crisis><severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 global pandemic><simulation><social group><social norm><social role><social structural><social structure><socio-economic><socio-economically><socio-structural><socioeconomically><socioeconomics><sociostructural><sound><stay-at-home mandate><stay-at-home order><stay-at-home ordinance><stay-at-home policy><success><theories><transmission process><tuberculosis infection><tuberculous spondyloarthropathy><vaccine deployment><vaccine development><vaccine distribution><vaccine roll-out><vaccine rollout><vaccine strategy><work setting>