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Principal Investigator: Danielle Giovenco
Organization: EMORY UNIVERSITY
Fiscal Year: 2024
Award: $177,304
Funding agency: National Institute of Mental Health
PROJECT SUMMARY
Public health emergencies, including conflict, natural disasters, and local and global epidemics and pandemics,
have the potential to disrupt progress towards ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Understanding the impact that
these disruptive events have on the HIV epidemic over time is essential to mitigating their effects. In the
present study, using the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa as a case example, we will establish applied
methods for estimating disruptions in HIV outcomes and identifying modifiable intervention targets. Specifically,
the research plan focuses on 1) building a database that harmonizes multiple national surveillance systems
across South Africa to enable the generation of robust HIV, mental health, and social determinant of health
(SDoH) estimates; 2) conducting an interrupted time series analysis to examine short- and long-term trends in
HIV prevention and care outcomes, mental health, and SDoH prior to and during COVID-19 in South Africa;
and 3) extending an existing agent-based model (ABM) to identify social factors predictive of HIV outcomes
during COVID-19 and simulate the impact of changes on predictive factors to identify targets for hypothetical
interventions. This application in response NOSI NOT-AI-21-057 (HIV/AIDS in the Era of COVID-19) is
extremely timely as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to evolve and predictions indicate future
emerging epidemics and other disruptive events are imminent. Through this award, I will extend my prior
experience in program implementation in South Africa and training in epidemiologic methods to 1) acquire a
foundation of knowledge in techniques for harmonizing data across multiple national surveillance systems; 2)
develop proficiency in advanced data science methods, including an interrupted time series design analysis
and agent-based modeling; 3) cultivate expertise on the impact of disruptive events on the HIV epidemic,
including the role of social and contextual factors, and methods for identifying effective, policy-relevant
intervention programs; and 4) build the foundation for an academic career in global health research by
strengthening international collaborations and grantsmanship, research dissemination, and policy engagement
skills. To accomplish these goals, I will complete coursework, workshops, and independent study; participate in
mentored training and mentored original research; engage with South African policy makers; attend and
present at multiple meetings and conferences annually; and complete numerous manuscripts and grant
applications. Completion of this training program will allow me to develop the language, concepts, and
principles necessary to work with multidisciplinary teams of modeling and implementation experts, which will
be instrumental in securing subsequent funding to develop methods for forecasting disruptions and identifying
effective, policy-relevant interventions in real time. Importantly, this award will also allow me to launch a robust,
independent academic research career focused on conducting rigorous epidemiological research to prevent
future disruptive events from perpetuating health disparities in generalized HIV epidemic settings.
Terms: <AIDS><AIDS Virus><AIDS prevention><AIDS test><AIDS/HIV><AIDS/HIV test><Accounting><Acquired Immune Deficiency><Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome><Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Virus><Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome><Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Virus><Affect><Africa South of the Sahara><African><Application Context><Applications Grants><Asian><Award><Back><COVID crisis><COVID epidemic><COVID pandemic><COVID-19><COVID-19 affected><COVID-19 consequence><COVID-19 crisis><COVID-19 effect><COVID-19 epidemic><COVID-19 era><COVID-19 global health crisis><COVID-19 global pandemic><COVID-19 health crisis><COVID-19 impact><COVID-19 impacted><COVID-19 pandemic><COVID-19 pandemic affected><COVID-19 pandemic consequence><COVID-19 pandemic effects><COVID-19 pandemic impact><COVID-19 pandemic impacted><COVID-19 period><COVID-19 public health crisis><COVID-19 years><CV-19><Collaborations><Communities><Conflict><Conflict (Psychology)><Coronavirus Infectious Disease 2019><Country><Data><Data Bases><Data Science><Data Sources><Databases><Diagnosis><Dorsum><Drops><Economics><Education><Educational aspects><Educational workshop><Ensure><Environment><Epidemic><Epidemiologic Methods><Epidemiologic Research><Epidemiologic Studies><Epidemiological Methods><Epidemiological Studies><Epidemiological Techniques><Epidemiology><Epidemiology Research><Event><Foundations><Funding><Future><Generations><Goals><Grant Proposals><HIV><HIV Infections><HIV Prevention><HIV diagnosis><HIV risk><HIV test><HIV-1 test><HIV-2 test><HIV/AIDS><HIV/AIDS prevention><HTLV-III Infections><HTLV-III-LAV Infections><Health Facilities><Health Services><Health care facility><Healthcare Facility><Household><Human Immunodeficiency Viruses><Human T-Lymphotropic Virus Type III Infections><Human immunodeficiency virus test><Incidence><Individual><International><Interruption><Intervention><Intervention Strategies><Knowledge><LAV-HTLV-III><Language><Long-term trends><Longer-term trends><Longerterm trends><Longitudinal trends><Longterm trends><Lymphadenopathy-Associated Virus><Manuscripts><Mental Health><Mental Hygiene><Mentors><Methods><Methods Epidemiology><Modeling><Modification><Natural Disasters><Outcome><Persons><Policies><Policy Maker><Population><Predictive Factor><Prevalence><Psychological Factors><Psychological Health><Public Health><Reporting><Research><Risk Estimate><Risk Factors><Role><SARS-CoV-2 epidemic><SARS-CoV-2 global health crisis><SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic><SARS-CoV-2 pandemic><SARS-coronavirus-2 epidemic><SARS-coronavirus-2 pandemic><Secure><Series><Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoV 2 epidemic><Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoV 2 pandemic><Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 epidemic><Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic><South Africa><South African><Southern Africa><Sub-Saharan Africa><Subsaharan Africa><Survey Instrument><Surveys><Suspension substance><Suspensions><System><Techniques><Time><Time Series Analysis><Training><Training Activity><Training Programs><Viral><Virus-HIV><Work><Workshop><antiretroviral therapy><antiretroviral treatment><burden of disease><burden of illness><care facilities><care outcomes><career><conference><contextual factors><convention><coronavirus disease 2019><coronavirus disease 2019 consequence><coronavirus disease 2019 crisis><coronavirus disease 2019 effect><coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic><coronavirus disease 2019 global health crisis><coronavirus disease 2019 global pandemic><coronavirus disease 2019 health crisis><coronavirus disease 2019 impact><coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic><coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic consequence><coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic impact><coronavirus disease 2019 public health crisis><coronavirus disease crisis><coronavirus disease epidemic><coronavirus disease pandemic><coronavirus disease-19><coronavirus disease-19 global pandemic><coronavirus disease-19 impact><coronavirus disease-19 pandemic><coronavirus infectious disease-19><data base><data harmonization><design><designing><disease burden><disparity in health><economic><effects following the COVID-19 pandemic><emerging epidemic><epidemiologic><epidemiologic investigation><epidemiological><epidemiology study><experience><global health><harmonized data><health care outcomes><health care quality><health determinants><health disparity><healthcare outcomes><healthcare quality><impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic><intervention program><interventional strategy><meeting><meetings><mortality><multidisciplinary><national surveillance><new epidemic><novel epidemic><pandemic><pandemic disease><population movement><prevent><preventing><programs><public health emergency><research data dissemination><research dissemination><response><service utilization><severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 global health crisis><severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 global pandemic><skills><social determinants><social factors><social health determinants><social role><sociodeterminant><summit><symposia><symposium><training module><treatment program>