…but the partisan size of that effect is contested

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How much this actually shifts power is disputed — and generally found small. PolitiFact rated FALSE the claim that counting non-citizens gave Democrats '24 more seats,' estimating real shifts of ~2–3 seats. Pew found that excluding unauthorized immigrants would cost California, Florida and Texas a seat each — and Florida and Texas are Republican-leaning. From 2019–2023, far more non-citizens moved to red states (~1.2 million) than blue states (~72,000). So the incentive is real, but the measured partisan effect is modest and not cleanly one-sided. Source: PolitiFact / Pew Research / Third Way.