Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)

CLIMATE TRENDS & PRO JECTIONS | CITY OF ASHLAND, OREGON | FINAL REPORT | 22 Figure 14. Project ions of annual total daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile for Ashland as simulated by 18 downscaled global climate models for the historical period (1950 -2005) and future (2006 -2099) under a low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissi ons scenario. Solid line and shading depicts the 18 -model mean and range, respectively. The multi -model mean differences for the 2050s (2040 -2069 average) and 2080s (2070 -2099 average) compared to the historical baseline (1950 -2005) are displayed . Consec utive Dry Days The annual maximum run of consecutive days without precipitation in Ashland —or longest annual dry spell — is projected to increase by 6 days for the multi -model mean by the 2080s under the high emissions scenario compared to the historic basel ine (1950 -2005) ( Figure 15). The range of future changes in the longest dry spell is -2 to +17 days for the 2050s and -8 to +21 days for the 2080s across all models and both emissions scenarios of future changes (Table 2). It is important to note that some models project a shortening of the longest annual dry spell. Figure 15. Longest dry spell projections for Ashland as simulated by 18 downscaled global climate models for the hist orical period (1950 - 2005) and future (2006 -2099) under a low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Solid line and shading depicts the 18-model mean and range, respectively. The multi -model mean differences for the 2050s (2040 -2069 a verage) and 2080s (2070 -2099 average) compared to the historical baseline (1950 -2005) are displayed . Ashland Ann ual T otal Dail y Precipitation Exceeding 95th P ercentile ThresholdInches Histor ical Low (RCP4.5) High (RCP8.5) 2050s +0.5 in2050s +0.6 in 2080s +0.8 in2080s +1.3 in 03691215182124 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Ashland Long est Dr y Spell Pr ojectionsDays Histor ical Low (RCP4.5) High (RCP8.5) 2050s +5 da ys2050s +5 da ys 2080s +4 da ys2080s +6 da ys 102540557085100115130145160 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090