Charts of the Month — March/April 2016
Charts of the Month — March/April 2016
Changes to 2016 GDP Estimate
7.0% - The biggest change to our World GDP estimate came
6.0% • from the U.S. which was downgraded from 2.4% to
1.9% in 2016.
5.0%
4.0%
3.0% -r
2.0%
... 0.0%
U.S. Europe UK Japan China World
■ November 2015 Forecast for 2016 GDP ■ March 2016 Forecast For 2016 GDP U.S. Valuations "Stretched"
20x
lax
16x
14x
12x
10x The recent rally in equities has pushed valuations to levels
that warrant caution.
'11 •
12 13 '14
--- (AVG) SW 500 Trailing P/E
— S&P 500 Trailing PIE
notnotes. Data as of March "c. 2016. '15
Global Sovereign Yields Highly Correlated Production Cuts Good; More Needed
6%
The ECBS aggressive central bank actions have
pushed sovereign rates across Europe lower.
keeping the rise in U.S. rates muted.
4/13 7/13 10/13 1/14 4/14 7/14 10/14 1/15 4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16
— Germany 10 Year Yield
— US Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield
Italy Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield
— Spain Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield
- France Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield
Footnotes: Data as of March i C .
Source. FactSet, Deutsche Bank Wealth Managemeni 10,000 •
9.000
8.000
al
7.000
6.000
5.000
4,000 According to the Department of Energy total oil
production has fallen by nearly 600 milh'on
lob's/day. However. supply is still too high and will
need to come down before a more meaningful
rebound in oil prices is seen.
Jan•10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
DOE Crude Oil Production
Footnotes: Data rs as of March 18. 201E
Source. Bloomberg Finance LF, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management
Deutsche Bank
Wealth Management 20
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CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0079377
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