18 October 2016
18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3O16 Earnings Preview
Shopping Centers: Store closures to hit 30 internal growth,
but progress for re-tenanting more important
IFigure 53: 1-Month Shopping Center performance
WOO Retail
a.
911,nm I :14S w•••
•t sestets' eine,se
As of 1W14/16
Seuroa 0 11•t SAL
[Figure 55: Vacancy up and rents down modestly in 3O
120% 1 , 4%
l2%
"n4 I
•0%j
•1%
e0%' -2%
20% 1
0 0% .....
temenesciswg ..?wei,ett Teeth n Erecthv Wye —VOCPerfert
• National vacancy rate was up 10bps q/q to 1O%
• Effective rent growth was down relative to last O
to 1.9% y/y.
Sias Jana Ea. Su Figure 54: YTD Shopping Center performance
Lod WAIN
Mown 9 3\
eett&tetit eiotnecit
As of 10/14/16
Source Damn _n
'Figure 56: 2016 SS NOI growth similar to 1H level
ax
sic
4%
g 3%
2 2%
1%
0% en 00R coy FRT NSW/ REO RPA1 RPT Mina.
•*MS • 1016 42016
• 2016 SS NOI guidance on average at the
midpoint is —3%, implying steady results in 21-I,
although additional potential store closures
present downside risk.
San arch* era, cerary cla•
Key Shopping Center topics/gees:ions for the quarter
• Development and redevelopment outlook
• Anchor and small shop retailer health
• Sports Authority releasing, downtime arid capex update
• Logans Roadhouse and Golfsmith exposure and store closures
• Outlook and thoughts on Staples/Office Depot (SPLS: DB Hold rated,
USD7.561ODP: DB Hold rated, USD3.34, both by Mike Baker)
New watchlist tenants
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Poet.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0092954
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00239138
EFTA01388949