18 October 2016
18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3O16 Earnings Preview
Shopping Centers: Store closures to hit 30 internal growth,
but progress for re-tenanting more important
IFigure 53: 1-Month Shopping Center performance
Wool Retail
a.
911,nm I :14S w•••
•t sestets' eine,se
As of 10/14/16
Sarea 0 lint SAL Figure 54:: YTD Shopping Center performance
Lod Rs
9 3\
<Pelt &tettrieiotnecit
As of 10/14/16
Source 4/.M,. eat sK
[Figure
120% I 55: Vacancy up and rents down modestly in 3O
, 4%
3% 'Figure 56: 2016 SS NOI growth similar to 1H level
4%
"41 g 3%
•0%1
•1% 2%
4 ow .2% I 1%
20% 1 0%
en 00R coy FRT 10MWS) REO RAU RPT AVele.
0 0% .....
temenesciswg ..?wei,ett Teeth n Erecum Re% —VaCPecert
• National vacancy rate was up 10bps q/q to 1O%
• Effective rent growth was down relative to last O
to 1.9% y/y.
Sias Dana Ea. Sae •*MS • 1016 42016
• 2016 SS NOI guidance on average at the
midpoint is —3%, implying steady results in 21-I,
although additional potential store closures
present downside risk.
San Paunch* &IS, orrwew ciao
Key Shopping Center topics/questions for the quarto:
• Development and redevelopment outlook
• Anchor and small shop retailer health
• Sports Authority releasing, downtime arid capex update
• Logans Roadhouse and Golfsmith exposure and store closures
• Outlook and thoughts on Staples/Office Depot (SPLS: DB Hold rated,
USD7.561ODP: DB Hold rated, USD3.34, both by Mike Baker)
New watchlist tenants
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 27
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