28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank O
28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank O
Figure 7: Nominal CRB and World IP Growth
lb
10
5
0
-6
.10
15
,t7.1 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-913 Jar701 Jan-04 Jen-01 Jan-10 18r1.13
Figure 9: Long•run Relationship- Nominal CRB
66
Ln
TV 1
63co
Wartl 63
ra:o 043
60 60
6J
fd•-v„ rsi 67
64 Ase • 64
61 61
; Iran
TIN ttrrAICAll rm.
4.8 4 8
Jan-86 Ja088 Jen-92 Jan-96 Jan-68 Jan-OI Jan-04 Jul-01 .0n-10 74013
f‘44:4 0448746o. $44,
Figure 11: RBA Commodity Price Index (Nominal) and
AUD/USD
11
1
09
08
07
06
05 -AUD noel
ifR8.4 Correroomi Pero lnao ftbS)
88 88 90 92 94 96 98 03 02 04 06 013 10 12 Figure 8: Nominal CRB and the Dollar
66
Ln
6.3
61
6.9
6.7
66 In 420
430
440
450
460
4 20
6J
Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-Se Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13
Figure 10: Long-run Relationship- Oil
Figure 12: Long-run Relationship.AUD/USD
175 0.3
150 0.1
125 -01
100 -03
75 -05
50 -0.7
25 Long Run Retabonaly
•
Long•run etastIc
Ccolm0:1111/ P1C0 0.4
US GDP: 43.48
88 93 92 94 96 99 00 02 04 OS 08 10 12 0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 29
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