From: Ens, Amanda
From: Ens, Amanda
Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2017 1:59 PM
To: jeffrey E.;
Subject: Buy FB and AAPL puts before earnings (or replace stock with options)
The implied 1-day move=for FB earnings on May 3rd is 4.3%.
You can buy the FB May=5th expiry 143 call for $3.30 (ref $143.06) - only 2.3%
The implied 1-day move=for AAPL earnings on May 2nd is 3.2%.
You can buy the AAPL M=y 5th expiry 140 put for $2.00 (ref $141.65)— 1.4%. The =TM costs 2.0%.
Or replace stock with =alls. The AAPL May 5th expiry 150 calls cost $0.42. The AAPL Ma= 19th expiry 150 calls cost $0.59.
From: Ens, Amanda
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2017 9:24 AM
To: 'jeffrey E' <[email protected]>
Subject: Buy FB puts before earnings
We generally view single stock implied vol as underp=icing earnings this season. FB in particular screens cheap.
Our research's 1= internet preview includes sentiment rankings, with FB ranked #1 out=of 25 internet stocks with
highest positive sentiment, driven by its lowes= short interest as % of float, 2nd highest yoy revenue growth
expectations, and 21% YTD stock performance.&nb=p;
FB reports May 3rd, and we view 5May2=17 puts as priced attractively low, given FB's extremely high positi=e
sentiment/long positioning and high rev expectations going into Q1 it's. The 5May2017 ATM put costs 2.8% =s an avg
6% realized daily move over the past 6 earnings. Additional=y, 5May2017 expiration captures the April 18th-19th F8
developer conferenc=, an event that has historically been a catalyst for the stock.</=pan>
=span style="color:#000A23">Buy FB 5May2017 ATM put for 2.8% premium=/0:p>
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=span style="color:#000A23">FB vol screens as cheap across the curve; hap=y to price longer dates as well.
Report link
=span style="font-size:20.5pt;color:#000A23">Sentiment Ranking Update
We are updating our sen=iment ranking index on 25 stocks in our Internet coverage universe (as of =/4/17). We have
aggregated six different indicators we think are relevant =o gauge sentiment and have generated an overall "sentiment"
score for each company. This sentiment an=lysis is intended to be informative and should not be used to form an
inve=tment opinion; for example our model does not factor in valuation or manag=ment quality. Of our company
coverage universe, we have excluded four game publisher companies as well as two recent IPO's=from this analysis as
data may not be comparable.
<=p>
Table 6: 1Q16 change in sentim=nt ranking
Ticker
Rank
Pre 4Q A
Score
Pre4Q
FB
1
+3
4
+2
TREE</=pan></=pan>
3
-1
2
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8
+4
NFLX
5
-2
9
+1
PCLN
7
+1
9
+2
CRCM
8
+9
11
+3
EXPE
9
+5
12
+2
IAC
10
3
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+5
12
+2
RATE
11
-4
13
-2
EBAY
12
+4
13
+1
ONDK
13
+5
14
+1
ZG
14
-9
14
-5
4
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YHOO
15
+6
14
+3
GPRO
16
+8
14
+5
YELP
17
-7
16
-4
W
18
-5
16
-3
P
19
NA
16
5
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NA
GRUB
20
-9
16
-4
MTCH
21
+1
17
+1
QUOT
22
-10
17
-4
FIT
23
+2
19
+1
TRIP
24
-1
6
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20
-2
TWTR
25
-5
21
-5
Source: BofA =errill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017
=Investor sentiment categories
We assembled data tha= measures investor sentiment across six categories. These metrics include =atest short interest
(as a % of float), change in short interest as a % of float over the last 90 days, current stock per=ormance over the last 90
days, current average sell side ratings, forward =ear EPS estimate revisions over last 90 days, and expected FY17 revenue
gr=wth. While there are no perfect indicators of average investor sentiment, we believe these metrics provide=a helpful
framework of investor sentiment in our sector. In our analysis, =acebook, WIX, and LendingTree had the highest
sentiment in 1Q, while Fitbi=, Trip and Twitter had the lowest sentiment. Care.com had the most improved ranking,
moving up 9 points to 8=sup>th, while Quotient had the biggest decline moving down 10 spots =n our ranking to 22nd.
Methodology
Our methodology consi=ted of: 1) gathering financial data across six categories that we believe =re relevant to
measuring investor sentiment, 2) ranking companies on each attribute using a scale of 1 to 29, with 1 highe=t and 29 the
lowest, and 3) ranking the companies based on the avg. score =f the six metrics.
Highest sentiment: FB, W=X, and TREE; Lowest: FIT, TRIP, and TWTR
Based on our sentimen= ranking index, Facebook, Wix, and LendingTree have top investor sentiment=pre 1Q earnings.
Facebook moved into first place from fourth due to the lowest short interest as % of float, second highest=FY17 revenue
growth, sixth highest sell side FY16 EPS estimate revisions, =nd third best stock performance in the last 90 days. Wix
came in second pl=ce with top stock performance in the last 90 days, top expected FY17 revenue growth and second
best sell-si=e FY16 EPS estimate revision, despite ranking ninth for current sell side =anking and seventh for short
interest ratio. LendingTree placed third with=best current sell side ranking and best change in short interest ratio.
Fitbit had third wors= investor sentiment with the worst stock performance in the last 90 days, =he worst expected FY17
revenue growth and the second largest change in short interest in the period. TripAdvisor, had the secon= lowest
sentiment with the third worst sell side ranking and fifth worst s=ll side EPS estimate revision. Twitter, our lowest
sentiment stock pre 1Q =arnings, had second to worst sell side ranking and expected FY17 revenue growth, along with
third to worst s=ll side estimate revisions and was below average in all of our categories.=/span>
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Score Ranking vs. Invest=ent Rating
Our sentiment analysi= is independent of our investment rating system, and our investment rating=may or may not
factor in positive or negative sentiment. This scorecard analysis includes only data currently up to the last 90 day=, and
our investment rating opinion takes into consideration potential sto=k price fluctuations, attractiveness for investment
relative to other stoc=s within our Coverage Cluster, business model quality, and valuation. Please see our Fundamental
Equity R=ting Opinion Key at the end of the report for more details.
<=p>
Table 7: Combined Metric List
&n=sp;Company
Short Interest % float
a short interest % of float
Performance 90 days
Sell Side Ranking
EPS Estimate Revisions
Expected FY17 Rev. Growth
FB
1%
0%
21%
4.7 =/span>
4%
37%
WIX
2%
-1%
67%
4.4 =/span>
62%
43%
8
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TREE
23%
-20%
21%
5.0 =/span>
-6%
34%
AMZN
1%
0%
20%
4.8 =/span>
-10%
21%
NFLX
6%
-1%
14%
4.1 =/span>
15%
27%
GOOGL
1%
0%
6%
4.7 =/span>
9
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0%
19%
PCLN
3%
0%
20%
4.6 =/span>
0%
16%
CRCM
3%
0%
42%
3.5 =/span>
28%
6%
EXPE
8%
-2%
11%
4.6 =/span>
-12%
14%
IAC
1%
0%
10
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12%
4.4 =/span>
-5%
-1%
RATE
2%
0%
-13%
4.2 =/span>
2%
16%
EBAY
2%
0%
14%
3.6 =/span>
-3%
5%
ONDK
12%
3%
1%
3.3 =/span>
34%
30%
ZG
11
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11%
-2%
-9%
3.9 =/span>
-26%
24%
YHOO
6%
1%
19%
3.8 =/span>
0%
2%
GPRO
36%
-3%
-4%
2.3 =/span>
74%
7%
YELP
10%
0%
-14%
3.7 =/span>
-2%
12
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25%
W
38%
2%
17%
3.9 =/span>
-22%
25%
P
30%
2%
-7%
3.9 =/span>
2%
17%
GRUB
18%
7%
-11%
4.1 =/span>
-5%
31%
MTCH
27%
5%
-4%
13
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4.2 =/span>
1%
8%
QUOT
8%
0%
-13%
4.8 =/span>
-56%
5%
FIT
26%
-4%
-29%
3.1 =/span>
NA
-27%
TRIP
16%
5%
-12%
2.9 =/span>
-21%
11%
TWTR
11%
14
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3%
-11%
2.5 =/span>
-55%
-7%
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Blo=mberg, as of 4/4/2017
<=p>
<=p>
<=p>
Table 8: Combined metric ranki=gs
&n=sp;Company
Short Interest % float
A short interest % of float
Performance 90 days
Sell Side Ranking
EPS Estimate Revisions
Expected FY17 Rev. Growth
Average
FB
1
8
3
4
6
2
15
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4 =/span>
WIX
7
6
1
9
2
1
4 =/span>
TREE
20
1
4
1
17
3
8 =/span>
AMZN
4
9
5
2
18
10
8 =/span>
NFLX
16
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10
7
10
13
5
6
9 =/span>
GOOGL
2
12
13
5
12
11
9 =/span>
PCLN
8
11
6
7
10
14
9 =/span>
CRCM
9
14
17
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2
20
4
19
11 =/span>
EXPE
12
5
12
6
19
15
12 =/span>
IAC
3
10
11
8
16
23
12 =/span>
RATE
6
15
23
10
18
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8
13
13 =/span>
EBAY
5
13
9
19
14
20
13 =/span>
ONDK
17
21
14
21
3
5
14 =/span>
ZG
15
4
18
14
22
9
19
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14 =/span>
YHOO
11
18
7
17
11
22
14 =/span>
GPRO
24
3
15
25
1
18
14 =/span>
YELP
14
16
24
18
13
8
16 =/span>
W
20
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25
19
8
15
21
7
16 =/span>
P
23
20
17
16
7
12
16 =/span>
GRUB
19
25
20
12
15
4
16 =/span>
MTCH
22
24
21
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16
11
9
17
17 =/span>
QUOT
13
17
22
3
24
21
17 =/span>
FIT
21
2
25
22
N/A
25
19 =/span>
TRIP
18
23
21
23
22
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20
16
20 =/span>
TWTR
16
22
19
24
23
24
21 =/span>
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Blo=mberg, as of 4/4/2017
Amanda Ens
Director
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporat=d
One Bryant Park, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10036 =/o:p>
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