From: Paul Barrett

EFTA02605063 Dataset 11 8 pages Download original PDF Download as text
From: Paul Barrett Sent: Thursday, August 23, 2018 2:19 PM To: Jeffrey E. Cc: Richard Kahn Subject: EM Update Brazil Update: BRL continues to weaken. Elections are October 7: El=ction Day (first-round) and then October 28: Second-round vote. Further we=kness going into the election could give us a very interesting entry point= Recall we saw big relief rallies in ZAR and MXN post-elections. TRY Update: Quiet week given EID. Spot at 6.0900. No new increme=tal news. RUB Update: Central Bank intervening to support RUB. Spot at 68.=0. Down about 2% on the week. "Russia's cent=al bank said it will suspend sales of rubles to purchase foreign exchange =hrough the end of September in an effort to steady the currency, helping pull it back from the lowest level in two years.R=1; Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor,=New York, NY 10019 EFTA_R1_01795323 EFTA02605063 From: Paul Barrett Sent: Friday, August 17, 2018 2:30 PM To: 'jeffrey E.' cjeevacation@gmailcom> Cc: 'Richard Kahn' Subject: RE: EM Jeffrey EM Update FX Spot Changesao:p> =/p> 1 Week 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 yr BRL -2% -2.58% -6.18% -18.02% -19% RUB 2 EFTA_R1_01795324 EFTA02605064 0.45% -7.11% -7.75% -16% -12% TRY 6.08% -21% -26.44% -38.21% -42.00% TRY hit a high (strong) level of 5.7100 yesterday during a conference=call with the finance minister • Down 6% today at 6.060= • lyr Implied interest rate still around 28-29%</=:p> • Turkey open half day on Monday and then closed for the rest =f the week (EID) • RUB and BRL bond prices remain very =table Here is an interesting RUB Cashless Risk Reversal: • Buy 6 month 65 RUB Call (cost 2.00% if you wanted to just buy the RUB=call) • Sell 6 month 73.50 RUB Put with an at-expiry kn=ck in at 78 • Red Line is the RUB put strike=/li> • White line is the knock in level (we need to be weaker/above the=white line at expiry for the short RUB put to knock-in — so down 16%=from here) • BIGGEST RISK: Another round of US sanct=ons in the coming months targeting state controlled banks which would free=e their USD transactions or a hawkish speech by Powell at Jackson Hole next week. 3 EFTA_R1_01795325 EFTA02605065 Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor,=New York, NY 1O019 From: Paul Barrett Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2018 5:19 PM To: 'jeffrey E.' <jeevac=tion@•mail.com <mailto:jeevacation@ maiLcom> > Cc: 'Richard Kahn' Subject: FW: EM Decent recovery today in Turkey. TRY up 8%...still down 23% MTD BRL up 50bps RUB up 2% Turkey rally driven by: &nb=p; massively oversold conditions in the short term=o:p> &nb=p; finally hints of more conventional solutions to=the current problems in Turkey &nb=p; FIN Minister: "FISCAL POLICY TO BE AN EVE= STRONGER ANCHOR. PRIORITY IS TO FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION, C/A DEFICI=" &nb=p; Finance minister holding a conference call on T=ursday morning 4 EFTA_R1_01795326 EFTA02605066 I still think it is still too early to get involved.=They still have a massive amount of $ denominated corporate debt that need= to be rolled over this year and the market will want to see a more viable=central bank plan to contain the situation. Paul Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor,=New York, NY 10019 From: Paul Barrett Sent: Monday, August 13, 2018 4:10 PM To: 'jeffrey E.' <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]» Cc: 'Richard Kahn' < Subject: EM Jeffrey Summary of some options when ready: • Brazil local currency bond prices have been very stable. Most of the =ove has been in USDBRL. Best Option — Brazil 12.5% 2022 @7% YTM denom in BRL (vs lyr F= forward implying 6.9%) • Russian RUB govt bonds down 2=points. Mainly a RUB move. Best Option - Russia 6.4% 5/27/2020 @ 7.45% YTM denom in RUB (vs lyr=FX forward implying 7.06%) • Turkey TRY denominated gov= bonds down 10 points since last week and 36 points since April (63 price). Yielding 21%. I prefer using a 1yr TRY forward which equates to a 27% yie=d and not worry about illiquidity in their bond market. 5 EFTA_R1_01795327 EFTA02605067 FX Spot Changes<=0:p> =/p> 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 yr BRL -1.33% -7.80% -15.44% -18% RUB -7.93% -8.85% -15% -12% TRY -31% -38.27% -45.50% -49A0% Implied Interest Rate=based on FX Forwards =/p> Spot 3 month 6 EFTA_R1_01795328 EFTA02605068 6 month 1 yr BRL =3.9000 3.34% 4.30% 6.91% RUB =nbsp; 68.03 3.43% 4.71% 7.06% TRY 6.9800 8.33% 14.69% 27.88% FX vol has also exploded. Do you want to see some option price=? The risk reversals are also pricing very well given how USD call vol has=exploded vs USD puts. • BRL 3 month vol has gone from 12% to 20% • RUB 3 m=nth vol has gone from 10% to 16% • TRY 3 month vol has =one from 20% to 47% Below is a list of the most liquid bonds:=/p> Brazil Petrobras 5.299% 1/27/2025 @ 6.35% YTM — USD D=nominated 7 EFTA_R1_01795329 EFTA02605069 'tau 6.2% 12/21/2021 @ 4.73% YTM — USD Denomin=ted Brazil 12.5% 1/5/2022 @ 7.00% YTM — BRL Denomi=ated Russia RFLB 6.7% 5/15/2019 @ 6.58% YTM — RUB Denomina=ed RFLB 6.80% 12/11/2019 @ 7.01% YTM — RUB Denomi=ated RFLB 6.4% 5/27/2020 @ 7.45% YTM — RUB Denominared Turkey Garanti 6.25% 4/20/2021 @ 10.74% YTM — USD Den=minated — Turkish Bank Turkey Sovereign 7% 6/5/2020 @ 8.44% YTM- USD =enominated Turkey Sovereign 12.4% 03/08/28 @ 21 YTM—TRY =enominated Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor,=New York, NY 10019 8 EFTA_R1_01795330 EFTA02605070

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[Image 1] The image shows a document with text, which appears to be a letter or a report. The document is titled "Summary of options when a company is unable to meet its debt obligations." It includes sections with headings such as "Background," "Options," and "Conclusion." The text discusses various options available to a company when it is unable to meet its debt obligations, including restructuring, refi [Image 2] The image shows a document with text, which appears to be a financial or business report. The document contains a list of percentages, possibly indicating performance metrics or financial ratios. There are also bullet points with text that seems to be discussing financial matters, such as "Taxes," "Interest," and "Insurance." The text is too small to read in detail, but it suggests a focus on fina [Image 3] The image shows a document that appears to be a letter or a memo. It contains text and a table with columns and rows. The visible text includes a subject line, a sender's address, a recipient's address, and a date. The body of the text discusses financial matters, specifically related to foreign exchange rates and the exchange of currency. There are references to a specific currency pair and a rat [Image 4] The image shows a document with text, which appears to be a letter or a report. The document is partially obscured, with the top and bottom portions cut off, and the text is not fully visible. The visible text includes a salutation, a date, and a closing. The visible date is "Wednesday, August 15, 2012." The salutation is "Dear [Name]," and the closing is "Best regards." The document is addressed [Image 5] The image appears to be a scanned document, likely a financial or business-related statement or invoice. It contains a list of items or services with corresponding dates, descriptions, and monetary values. The document includes columns with headers such as "Date," "Description," "Amount," and "Total." There are numerical figures and dates visible, but the specific details are not clear due to the [Image 6] The image appears to be a photograph of a printed document, possibly a financial or investment report. The document contains a list of stocks or securities with their respective prices, percentages, and other numerical data. There are also some notes or comments at the bottom of the document, but the text is too small to read clearly. The document is printed on a piece of paper, and the text is in