Finland has more reason than almost any NATO member to fear Russia: it has the alliance's longest border with Russia, about half of the total, by Stubb's count. Yet its president, Alexander Stubb, has spent the past several weeks telling other Europeans that a Russian attack on NATO is not coming. "If anyone has a crystal ball like that – that's great. I simply see neither evidence nor facts to support it," he told Germany's Bild newspaper at the end of August, responding to German assessments that Russia could be in a position to attack a NATO country by 2029. Germany's army chief, Lt. Gen. Christian Freuding, says that date is not a German guess: "All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia might have the capability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029."
The two positions are not exact opposites. Freuding is describing what Russia might be able to do; Stubb is mostly arguing about what it would choose to do, saying he does not believe Russia "would ever want to attack NATO, the world's most powerful military alliance." Where they do clash is on capacity: Stubb says Russia is losing more soldiers in Ukraine than it can replace.
What Stubb has said
In the Bild interview, published August 29, Stubb said NATO's conventional, missile and nuclear forces were too strong to attack and that he had intelligence to back that up. "It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance," he said. Russia, he said, was losing around 30,000 to 35,000 troops a month in Ukraine while recruiting about 27,000: "I simply cannot see them suddenly being able to mobilise forces for two fronts."
He has not said Finland is safe from Russia. On September 16 he told Finnish broadcaster MTV that four drones had fallen inside Finland this year and that Finns should "prepare mentally" for more incursions and sabotage. "The first type is kinetic war, which we are currently seeing between Ukraine and Russia," he said. "The second is hybrid war." Days later, at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, he told Politico that Europe must not overreact to it: "Any time we overreact to a hybrid attack, they have actually won the battle in that particular way." He criticized intelligence services that "basically say that, well, you're next," adding: "We don't see the evidence of that. ... In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now."
The warnings he is answering
Others in Europe read the same situation more darkly. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Russia could send drones or missiles into NATO countries that support Ukraine "in the next few months," and the head of the Czech security service has said Russia could attempt "a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign" within "months, not years." In June, Scandinavian intelligence and military officials said Russia was building facilities for up to 115,000 troops near its borders with NATO countries, including barracks near the Finnish border that could hold up to 80,000. Freuding, speaking the same month, said NATO could not afford to wait until the end of the decade: "We must improve our capabilities for the 'fight tonight' every day."
Where they agree
Stubb says the alliance must be ready for any scenario, and Finland has kept arming: its first F-35 fighter jets arrived on October 1. On one point every side agrees. "We must understand – you in Germany and we in Finland – that Ukraine is the best security guarantee we have against Russia," Stubb told Bild. "If Ukraine loses, we lose."
Sources: Reuters, reporting Bild's interview, August 29, 2026; TVP World, September 18, 2026; Politico Europe, September 21, 2026; TVP World and United24, June 11-12, 2026; Helsinki Times, October 2026.
