British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Parliament on October 12 that the suspected plot at RAF Fairford on September 27 was, in Britain's assessment, "highly likely to have been co-ordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard." Iran has rejected any suggestion it was involved, calling it "unfounded and malicious speculations." What is publicly known about the incident is far thinner than either side's language: no attack took place and no aircraft was hit, police found petrol but no explosive device in the three vans they stopped near the base, and all seven men arrested remain on police bail without charge. The government has not published the intelligence behind its judgment. The same day, the United States and more than two dozen allies issued a joint statement saying they "recognise the United Kingdom's attribution of Iran's involvement in the incident at RAF Fairford."
What happened on September 27
RAF Fairford, in Gloucestershire, has been used in recent months by U.S. bombers to launch airstrikes against Iran. In the early hours of Sunday, September 27, a farmer from the village of Whelford called 999 at 1:36 a.m. after finding three vans blocking a road near the base, according to the Press Association. About an hour earlier, one of the men later arrested had himself called the police, a detail first reported by The Times; no explanation for that call has been made public. Police declared a major incident, evacuated dozens of nearby residents and arrested five British men in their mid-20s, from Camden and Westminster in London, on suspicion of explosives offences and later terrorism. Police later arrested two more men in London on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts: a 25-year-old dual British-Iranian national on October 1 and a 22-year-old British national on October 6. All seven remain on police bail, according to Counter Terrorism Policing, which said on October 1 it was "looking at all possible angles – including possible foreign state involvement."
On September 29, the head of UK counter-terrorism policing, Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor, said: "We can confirm that no improvised explosive devices have been found. We have found a quantity of an accelerant, petrol." All five original suspects had been released on police bail the day before; Taylor called that "an investigative decision" and said the men "remain under investigation." The National reported that counter-terrorism police were following at least five lines of inquiry, "from the suspects being petrol smugglers to alleged Iran proxies seeking to blow up a US airbase." President Trump said he was "surprised that they released them."
A week later, the U.S. military flew all twelve B-1 bombers out of Fairford. U.S. officials told Axios the move followed intelligence pointing to a possible Iranian drone attack on the base, and that it was unclear whether the men arrested near Fairford were connected to that threat or to something else. Secretary of State Marco Rubio first described the move as part of "regular rotations"; Trump then said, "They didn't fly out by accident."
What Britain is claiming, and how strongly
Burnham's words are drawn from the fixed scale British intelligence assessments use to express probability. On that scale, "highly likely" means roughly an 80 to 90 percent chance, and "almost certain" roughly 95 percent or more. Neither term claims certainty. Two weeks earlier, Burnham had told the BBC only that there were "strong indications that Iran played a part," while stressing that it "remains an ongoing, complex and serious police investigation." Iran's Foreign Ministry has pointed to the same hedged wording, arguing that "highly likely" and "almost certainly" do not substantiate the charge.
Burnham promised a response: "We will not tolerate these threats on our soil. We will crack down on Iran's use of criminal networks, using our full range of powers to target them and their funding streams, and we will bring further sanctions to restrict the capacity of Iran and the IRGC to do us harm." Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband summoned Iran's ambassador, and Britain sanctioned two Iranians: Ruhollah Bazghandi, whom it describes as the Revolutionary Guard's head of counterespionage operations, and Shahram Ali Reza Tamarzadeh Jakki, whom it describes as a facilitator for the already-sanctioned Zindashti criminal network. Britain did not say either man was involved at Fairford.
The allied statement
The joint statement was released in two versions. The State Department's lists 29 governments, including the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and most of the European Union, and is titled as a statement on Iran's involvement in an "Attempted Terrorist Attack at RAF Fairford." The version on the British government's website lists 34 countries plus the EU's foreign-policy chief. Both condemn "Iran's use of violent attacks, including the acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and other hybrid activities," and place Fairford alongside a string of attacks in Europe this year on Jewish communities, Iranian journalists and U.S. interests claimed by a group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI), among them a homemade bomb at a synagogue in Liège, Belgium, and a foiled plot against a Bank of America branch in Paris. On Fairford itself, the statement does not present evidence of its own. It endorses Britain's conclusion and repeats it: the UK "has also concluded this event demonstrates the IRGC's continued willingness to project hostile activity beyond its borders through covert networks and proxy actors."
What has not been shown
The assessment comes from British intelligence and has not been tested in court. No one has been charged, so no prosecutor has had to set out evidence in public, and police have not said what the men intended to do with the petrol. Whether the September 27 arrests, the warning of an Iranian drone attack that prompted the bombers' withdrawal, and the Revolutionary Guard are parts of one operation is something neither government has publicly explained. Iran's embassy in London has denied any involvement since the first days after the incident.
Sources: GOV.UK, "Joint Statement on Iran, 12 October"; U.S. State Department, joint statement media note, October 12, 2026; CBC News (with Reuters), October 12; The Epoch Times, October 12; Breitbart, October 12; Press Association via Express & Star, September 29; The National, September 30; Axios, October 4; Counter Terrorism Policing, October 1 update and October 6-8 updates; GOV.UK, "Explaining uncertainty in UK intelligence assessment".
