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Candace Owens
Topic canadace-owens · retired
Confidence: STRONG
3 of 6 tiers have recent data.
○ polls
○ outcomes
○ social
✓ audience
✓ narrative
✓ forecast
⚖️ Media vs Public — strong divergence
last 30d · updated Jul 22
Mainstream media
+0.77
30 articles
vs
The public (social)
-0.05
10447 posts · L -0.05
The +82-point gap between mainstream media sentiment (+0.77) and public sentiment (-0.05) is worth examining, but the sample headlines provided — all from the Financial Times, covering Japanese bonds, OpenAI, DoJ antitrust, and Turkish politics — contain no coverage of Candace Owens whatsoever. This means the sentiment scores cannot be validated against actual editorial content on this topic, and the divergence figure should be treated as a data artifact until confirmed with on-topic articles. What the gap would show, if the underlying articles were relevant, is that institutional media coverage skews notably more favorable toward Owens than left-leaning public discourse on BlueSky and Reddit — not that either read is accurate about her, but that the two audiences are processing her public presence through different frames. The absence of right-leaning public data is also a structural gap in this dataset: a complete picture of public sentiment on a figure like Owens, whose primary audience is on the right, requires that segment, and without it the -0.05 public figure reflects only one side of her actual audience. Treat the divergence as a signal worth investigating further, not a conclusion.
Sentiment −1…+1 (VADER) —
not truth. A gap means coverage and public mood point different directions, not that either is right.
See all gaps →
Tier 2 — Pollster readings (0)
No polls linked to this topic yet. Admin can link polls via the topic-management UI.
Tier 0 — Outcomes (0)
No outcomes recorded yet for this topic. Operator records outcomes at /admin/pollster-outcomes as elections, votes, and events resolve.
Tier 5 — Latent forecasting (the Clif-High layer)
Modal-language intensity + attention momentum + Wikipedia pageview signal. Predictive, not descriptive — what these signals suggest is coming.
Attention momentum (last 3d vs prior 3d)
+0.0%
FLAT
Flat (+0.0% over 3 days). No directional signal.
Modal-language intensity (current day)
Hits per 1,000 words. Delta is 7d-vs-prior-7d change. Rising fear/dread/urgency + falling certainty/complacency = typical "crisis warm-up" pattern.
Avg 5,949 views/day · 3d-vs-prior-3d momentum:
+25.8%
Pageview spikes typically precede mainstream-coverage spikes by 1-3 days.
Tier 4 — Mainstream narrative coverage
VADER sentiment over 30 recent articles from operator-curated mainstream sources. This is what the major outlets are telling readers about this topic.
Average sentiment
-0.76
VADER compound · 30 articles
Source mix
ABC News: 23 · -0.95
Financial Times: 2 · -0.21
The Hill: 2 · -0.01
Bloomberg: 1 · +0.41
CNBC: 2 · -0.36
Recent mainstream coverage
ABC News · 2026-10-16 ·
-0.84
ABC News · 2026-10-16 ·
-0.94
ABC News · 2026-10-16 ·
-0.99
ABC News · 2026-10-16 ·
-0.99
ABC News · 2026-10-16 ·
-0.99
ABC News · 2026-10-16 ·
-0.98
ABC News · 2026-10-15 ·
-0.97
ABC News · 2026-10-15 ·
-0.99
Tier 3 — Prediction markets (20)
Money-on-the-line probabilities. When market price diverges > 10pts from the poll average, somebody is wrong.
| Platform |
Question |
YES probability |
Volume |
Captured |
|
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO by June 30, 2026? |
0% |
$0 |
2026-07-22 20:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Macron out in 2025? |
0% |
$1,386,220 |
2026-07-22 20:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? |
0% |
$545,639 |
2026-07-22 20:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? |
22% |
$547,287 |
2026-07-22 20:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO in 2025? |
0% |
$494,517 |
2026-07-22 20:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Macron out in 2025? |
0% |
$1,386,220 |
2026-07-22 19:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO by June 30, 2026? |
0% |
$0 |
2026-07-22 19:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? |
22% |
$547,287 |
2026-07-22 19:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? |
0% |
$545,639 |
2026-07-22 19:03 |
↗ |
| polymarket |
Kraken IPO in 2025? |
0% |
$494,517 |
2026-07-22 19:03 |
↗ |
Tier 1 — Social (paired, never merged)
No social posts indexed yet for this topic. The ingestion pipeline runs every 30 minutes; check back shortly, or trigger an admin run.
Tier 6 — Profoundd audience signal
Your readers' signal, not American public opinion. Last 30 days.
Operator note: Track public opinions of Candace Owens in relation to the trial of the murderer of Charlie Kirk.