Direction of the country
Topic direction-of-country
Confidence: STRONG
5 of 6 tiers have recent data.
✓ polls
✓ outcomes
✓ social
○ audience
✓ narrative
✓ forecast
⚖️ Media vs Public — aligned
last 30d · updated Sep 03
Mainstream media
+0.14
30 articles
vs
The public (social)
+0.22
3309 posts · L +0.22
Gap
-9 pts
Both mainstream media coverage and left-leaning public posts on BlueSky and Reddit land on the mildly favorable side of the scale — +0.14 and +0.22 respectively — producing a 9-point gap that runs in the same direction, not opposite directions. This is a alignment signal, not an inversion: the two channels agree on valence, they differ only in intensity, with public sentiment running slightly warmer than coverage. What this does not show is whether that shared mild optimism is warranted — sentiment measurement captures mood and framing, not ground conditions, and both channels could be simultaneously wrong about the actual trajectory of the country. Worth noting is a structural limitation in the data: right-leaning public posts returned no usable sample, which means the "public" figure here reflects one ideological slice, and a full-spectrum read of public mood is not available from this dataset. The sample headlines themselves are notably internationalized and finance-focused — New Zealand exporters, Chinese broadcasters, British political commentary — which raises a legitimate question about whether the mainstream media sample is actually tracking domestic direction-of-country sentiment or something adjacent to it.
Sentiment −1…+1 (VADER) — not truth. A gap means coverage and public mood point different directions, not that either is right. See all gaps →
Tier 2 — Pollster readings (20)
| Date | Pollster | Sample | Margin (+R / -D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27 - 7/29 | Big Data Poll | 2617 | -31.0 |
| 7/26 - 7/30 | Rasmussen Reports | 1900 | -23.0 |
| 7/31 - 8/3 | Economist/YouGov | 1473 | -31.0 |
| 8/2 - 8/6 | Rasmussen Reports | 1953 | -26.0 |
| 8/6 - 8/7 | Cygnal | 1500 | -22.0 |
| 8/7 - 8/10 | Economist/YouGov | 1420 | -36.0 |
| 8/9 - 8/13 | Rasmussen Reports | 1831 | -27.0 |
| 8/14 - 8/17 | Economist/YouGov | 1450 | -32.0 |
| 8/16 - 8/20 | Rasmussen Reports | 1816 | -25.0 |
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Reuters/Ipsos | 951 | -50.0 |
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Economist/YouGov | 1379 | -35.0 |
| 8/23 - 8/27 | Rasmussen Reports | 1834 | -21.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/31 | Economist/YouGov | 1437 | -34.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/30 | Harvard-Harris | 2100 | -15.0 |
| 7/3 - 8/31 | RCP Average | — | -24.2 |
| 7/27 - 7/29 | Big Data Poll | 2617 | -31.0 |
| 7/26 - 7/30 | Rasmussen Reports | 1900 | -23.0 |
| 7/31 - 8/3 | Economist/YouGov | 1473 | -31.0 |
| 8/2 - 8/6 | Rasmussen Reports | 1953 | -26.0 |
| 8/6 - 8/7 | Cygnal | 1500 | -22.0 |
Tier 0 — Outcomes (1)
| Recorded | Kind | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | event | +47.00 | ↗ |
Tier 5 — Latent forecasting (the Clif-High layer)
Modal-language intensity + attention momentum + Wikipedia pageview signal. Predictive, not descriptive — what these signals suggest is coming.
Attention momentum (last 3d vs prior 3d)
+12.5%
RISING
Modestly rising (+12.5% over 3 days).
Modal-language intensity (current day)
anger
1.0
+36% vs prior 7d
fear
0.0
-14% vs prior 7d
hope
3.4
+26% vs prior 7d
dread
0.5
-6% vs prior 7d
certainty
2.4
+7% vs prior 7d
doubt
0.0
+14% vs prior 7d
urgency
5.3
+7% vs prior 7d
complacency
3.9
+32% vs prior 7d
Hits per 1,000 words. Delta is 7d-vs-prior-7d change. Rising fear/dread/urgency + falling certainty/complacency = typical "crisis warm-up" pattern.
Tier 4 — Mainstream narrative coverage
VADER sentiment over 30 recent articles from operator-curated mainstream sources. This is what the major outlets are telling readers about this topic.
Average sentiment
+0.17
VADER compound · 30 articles
Source mix
Bloomberg: 9 · +0.00
Financial Times: 12 · +0.72
ABC News: 3 · -0.98
CNBC: 1 · +0.27
Politico: 4 · -0.03
The Hill: 1 · -0.78
Recent mainstream coverage
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.29
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
+0.67
Financial Times · 2026-09-03 ·
+0.98
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
+0.40
ABC News · 2026-09-03 ·
-1.00
CNBC · 2026-09-03 ·
+0.27
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
+0.03
Financial Times · 2026-09-03 ·
+0.92
Tier 3 — Prediction markets (20)
Money-on-the-line probabilities. When market price diverges > 10pts from the poll average, somebody is wrong.
| Platform | Question | YES probability | Volume | Captured | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 46% | $23 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 52% | $63 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 50% | $145 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 47% | $23 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 52% | $63 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 50% | $145 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
Tier 1 — Social (paired, never merged)
Sentiment (avg compound, −1 to +1) split by platform political coding. Profoundd never merges left-coded and right-coded sources into a single number.
Left-coded platforms (BlueSky, r/politics, r/news…)
+0.22
avg VADER compound · 3308 posts
Sample left-coded posts
bluesky ·
+0.60
With Hendrick Motorsports seemingly trending in the right direction, don't count out two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson, who enters The Chase as the seventh seed:
https://josephsrigley.com/2026/09/02/with-hendrick-trending-in-…
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.90
Well, it does not matter what his motives are. The policy is certainly in the right direction. A democracy in Iran would be a huge advance towards a peaceful and free world.
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.30
Yep and if New Heights gave him 6-9 months and were vocal about it, that would be a step in the right direction.
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.12
that the 1970s/ 1980s state of Israel was headed in the right direction too, however it treated Palestine *at that time.* We were given Rosy Scenarios. Now we're adults and we see.... this. Not sure when, but Jimmy Carter came to see it too…
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.81
Seems accurate, & I defend the New Deal all the time: New Deal America was not even close to a full democracy! but it was headed the right direction. Not the most important but one of the most immediately disturbing things for ppl with my o…
link ↗
Sample right-coded posts
Tier 6 — Profoundd audience signal
Your readers' signal, not American public opinion. Last 30 days.
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