Israel-Iran strikes
Topic israel-iran-strikes
Confidence: STRONG
4 of 6 tiers have recent data.
○ polls
✓ outcomes
✓ social
○ audience
✓ narrative
✓ forecast
⚖️ Media vs Public — mild divergence
last 30d · updated Sep 03
Mainstream media
-0.44
30 articles
vs
The public (social)
-0.12
2207 posts · L -0.12
Gap
-32 pts
The -32 point gap shows that mainstream outlets are covering the Israel-Iran strikes with measurably more negative framing than the public mood on BlueSky and Reddit reflects — but this tells you about the direction of coverage and public sentiment, not about which picture is more accurate. Media sentiment scores are shaped by editorial selection: which events get headlines, which sources get quoted, which framing words appear. Public sentiment scores are shaped by who posts and what they already believe. The left-leaning sample here skews the public read in a specific direction, and the absence of right-leaning data means the full public distribution is unknown — the -0.12 figure is a partial read, not a population average. The signs here are the same (both negative), so this is not an inversion, but the 32-point magnitude is worth tracking: when institutional media consistently frames a conflict more negatively than the public does over a sustained period, it can indicate either that outlets have access to information the public is not weighing, or that editorial priorities and sourcing patterns are amplifying threat framing beyond what primary evidence supports — and distinguishing between those two explanations requires looking at the underlying sourcing, not the sentiment score itself.
Sentiment −1…+1 (VADER) — not truth. A gap means coverage and public mood point different directions, not that either is right. See all gaps →
Tier 2 — Pollster readings (0)
No polls linked to this topic yet. Admin can link polls via the topic-management UI.
Tier 0 — Outcomes (1)
| Recorded | Kind | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | policy_vote | +4.00 | ↗ |
Tier 5 — Latent forecasting (the Clif-High layer)
Modal-language intensity + attention momentum + Wikipedia pageview signal. Predictive, not descriptive — what these signals suggest is coming.
Attention momentum (last 3d vs prior 3d)
-1.5%
FLAT
Flat (-1.5% over 3 days). No directional signal.
Modal-language intensity (current day)
anger
0.6
+102% vs prior 7d
fear
0.3
-40% vs prior 7d
hope
0.6
-19% vs prior 7d
dread
0.6
+66% vs prior 7d
certainty
1.4
-13% vs prior 7d
doubt
1.7
-25% vs prior 7d
urgency
2.5
+15% vs prior 7d
complacency
0.6
+60% vs prior 7d
Hits per 1,000 words. Delta is 7d-vs-prior-7d change. Rising fear/dread/urgency + falling certainty/complacency = typical "crisis warm-up" pattern.
Tier 4 — Mainstream narrative coverage
VADER sentiment over 30 recent articles from operator-curated mainstream sources. This is what the major outlets are telling readers about this topic.
Average sentiment
-0.38
VADER compound · 30 articles
Source mix
Bloomberg: 11 · -0.15
CNBC: 1 · -0.90
ABC News: 6 · -0.70
Politico: 3 · -0.18
The Hill: 9 · -0.46
Recent mainstream coverage
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.60
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.83
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
+0.60
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.77
CNBC · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.90
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.42
ABC News · 2026-09-02 ·
-0.97
Bloomberg · 2026-09-02 ·
-0.60
Tier 3 — Prediction markets (20)
Money-on-the-line probabilities. When market price diverges > 10pts from the poll average, somebody is wrong.
| Platform | Question | YES probability | Volume | Captured | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 46% | $23 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 52% | $63 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 50% | $145 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-03 09:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 47% | $23 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 52% | $63 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 50% | $145 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-03 08:06 | ↗ |
Tier 1 — Social (paired, never merged)
Sentiment (avg compound, −1 to +1) split by platform political coding. Profoundd never merges left-coded and right-coded sources into a single number.
Left-coded platforms (BlueSky, r/politics, r/news…)
-0.12
avg VADER compound · 2199 posts
Sample left-coded posts
bluesky ·
+0.00
🇮🇷 Iran Brief — Sep 3 🔴
August 17 Deadline for New Iran Nuclear Deal Talks Passes Without Resolution Amid Continued Inspection Blockade.
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.34
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors have had no access to Iran's critical enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan since June 2025.
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.13
Strike kit
• GBU-57 MOP likely — 13,600 kg, GPS/INS, B-2, USA, target: Fordow
• Tomahawk likely — 1,600 km, 450 kg, GPS/TERCOM, Burke, USA, target: AD
• S-300PMU-2 likely — 200 km, SARH, TEL, Russia, at Natanz
Penetration beats volume.
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.73
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accuses Iran of continuing to block access for international inspectors to its nuclear plants, specifically damaged sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.40
So Russia is penning a deal with Iran regarding nuclear power.
Isn't Russia one of the few countries in the region with the heavy equipment to excavate Fordow?
Yes, Other Cyd, I think it is.
link ↗
Sample right-coded posts
Tier 6 — Profoundd audience signal
Your readers' signal, not American public opinion. Last 30 days.
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