Israel-Iran strikes
Topic israel-iran-strikes
Confidence: STRONG
4 of 6 tiers have recent data.
○ polls
✓ outcomes
✓ social
○ audience
✓ narrative
✓ forecast
⚖️ Media vs Public — mild divergence
last 30d · updated Oct 18
Mainstream media
-0.43
30 articles
vs
The public (social)
-0.21
1013 posts · L -0.21
Gap
-22 pts
The -22 point gap shows that mainstream outlets in this sample are covering Israel-Iran strikes with measurably more negative framing than left-leaning public posters on BlueSky and Reddit — but sentiment divergence is a signal about coverage tone and public mood, not a verdict on which picture of events is accurate. Worth noting plainly: the sample headlines provided do not actually concern Israel-Iran strikes at all — they cover Trump approval ratings, AI contracting, Russia sanctions, and a settler attack on a journalist — which means the mainstream sentiment score here may be capturing a broader geopolitical negativity rather than coverage specifically calibrated to the Israel-Iran exchange. The signs are not inverted (both media and public land negative), so this is not the sharper kind of divergence where institutional framing and public perception are pointing in opposite directions; it is a difference of degree, not direction. What it may document is that professional editorial framing is running roughly twice as negative as the organic public response among the measured left-leaning cohort, which could reflect editorial selection, audience self-selection on those platforms, or genuine differences in how the two groups are weighting the same events — the data cannot distinguish between those explanations. Right-leaning public sentiment is absent from this read entirely, which is a material gap in the dataset that should be named rather than papered over.
Sentiment −1…+1 (VADER) — not truth. A gap means coverage and public mood point different directions, not that either is right. See all gaps →
Tier 2 — Pollster readings (0)
No polls linked to this topic yet. Admin can link polls via the topic-management UI.
Tier 0 — Outcomes (1)
| Recorded | Kind | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | policy_vote | +4.00 | ↗ |
Tier 5 — Latent forecasting (the Clif-High layer)
Modal-language intensity + attention momentum + Wikipedia pageview signal. Predictive, not descriptive — what these signals suggest is coming.
Attention momentum (last 3d vs prior 3d)
+119.7%
RISING
Rising sharply (+119.7% vs prior 3 days). Likely to surface in mainstream coverage within 1-7 days.
Modal-language intensity (current day)
anger
0.3
-38% vs prior 7d
fear
0.3
-68% vs prior 7d
hope
0.5
+330% vs prior 7d
dread
0.8
-44% vs prior 7d
certainty
0.5
+89% vs prior 7d
doubt
0.8
+192% vs prior 7d
urgency
3.7
+7% vs prior 7d
complacency
0.0
+220% vs prior 7d
Hits per 1,000 words. Delta is 7d-vs-prior-7d change. Rising fear/dread/urgency + falling certainty/complacency = typical "crisis warm-up" pattern.
Tier 4 — Mainstream narrative coverage
VADER sentiment over 30 recent articles from operator-curated mainstream sources. This is what the major outlets are telling readers about this topic.
Average sentiment
-0.44
VADER compound · 30 articles
Source mix
CNBC: 4 · -0.63
The Hill: 13 · -0.44
ABC News: 8 · -0.29
Financial Times: 4 · -0.49
Bloomberg: 1 · -0.77
Recent mainstream coverage
CNBC · 2026-10-18 ·
-0.90
The Hill · 2026-10-18 ·
-0.93
The Hill · 2026-10-18 ·
-0.80
The Hill · 2026-10-18 ·
-0.88
ABC News · 2026-10-18 ·
+0.27
The Hill · 2026-10-18 ·
+0.96
CNBC · 2026-10-18 ·
-0.10
The Hill · 2026-10-18 ·
-0.88
Tier 3 — Prediction markets (20)
Money-on-the-line probabilities. When market price diverges > 10pts from the poll average, somebody is wrong.
| Platform | Question | YES probability | Volume | Captured | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 22% | $1,404 | 2026-10-19 01:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 10% | $2,300 | 2026-10-19 01:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 62% | $1,493 | 2026-10-19 01:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-10-19 01:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-10-19 01:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 10% | $2,300 | 2026-10-19 00:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 22% | $1,404 | 2026-10-19 00:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 61% | $1,493 | 2026-10-19 00:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-10-19 00:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-10-19 00:15 | ↗ |
Tier 1 — Social (paired, never merged)
Sentiment (avg compound, −1 to +1) split by platform political coding. Profoundd never merges left-coded and right-coded sources into a single number.
Left-coded platforms (BlueSky, r/politics, r/news…)
-0.21
avg VADER compound · 1014 posts
Sample left-coded posts
bluesky ·
+0.00
Résistance Iranienne - CNRI.
🔗 [Lire l'article](https://fr.ncr-iran.org/actualites/terrorisme-a-integrisme/les-querelles-de-factions-erodent-lautorite-de-mojtaba-khamenei/)
#Iran #Resistance
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.00
Mohammad-Reza Bahonar n’est pas une figure de l’opposition. Ancien vice-président du Parlement, il est un membre de longue date de l’appareil au pouvoir. C’est ce qui [...]
The post Les querelles de factions érodent l’autorité de Mojtaba Kh…
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.00
📰 SOURCE : NCRI (Opposition Iran)
📌 Les querelles de factions érodent l’autorité de Mojtaba Khamenei
📅 Parution (Flux) : Tue, 13 Oct 2026 21:15:38 +0000
🌍 Parution (Paris) : 17/10/2026 à 17h31mn32s
📤 Transfert vers Telegram : 17/10/2026 à …
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.81
survived the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, the loss of senior military commanders, war, economic crisis, and widespread public discontent. So why is the system still standing? Vahid Pourostad of RFE/RL Radio Farda's Iran…
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.67
Words. Mean. Things.
That phrase literally predicts no agreement could be signed within AT LEAST 6 years of attack on Khamenei*. It's hard to not read it in the context of e.g. that article begging for more hawkishness from AOC specifical…
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.00
PESANT. Invisible depuis le début de la guerre, l’ombre du nouveau guide suprême Mojtaba Khamenei pèse chaque jour davantage sur la politique de la République islamique d’Iran. « Il est de retour aux affaires et demeure radical », confie à …
link ↗
Sample right-coded posts
Tier 6 — Profoundd audience signal
Your readers' signal, not American public opinion. Last 30 days.
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