Presidential approval
Topic presidential-approval
Confidence: STRONG
6 of 6 tiers have recent data.
✓ polls
✓ outcomes
✓ social
✓ audience
✓ narrative
✓ forecast
⚖️ Media vs Public — mild divergence
last 30d · updated Sep 04
Mainstream media
+0.25
30 articles
vs
The public (social)
+0.02
46614 posts · L +0.02
Gap
+24 pts
The +24-point gap between mainstream media sentiment (+0.25) and public sentiment (+0.02) reflects a measurable divergence in tone, not a verdict on who is correct. What it shows: major outlets in this sample were covering economic and monetary-policy stories — Fed rate expectations, BOJ moves, RBNZ timing — in a register that skewed mildly favorable, while the public sample of left-leaning BlueSky and Reddit posters landed nearly flat, suggesting those narratives did not translate into warmer public mood. What it does not show: the media sample is 30 articles against 46,614 public posts, so the public signal carries substantially more volume, and the absence of right-leaning posters in the public sample means the +0.02 figure represents only part of the political spectrum, making any population-wide inference premature. The signs are not inverted here — both are positive — so this is a gap in magnitude rather than direction, which is the less alarming configuration; an inversion (one positive, one negative) would be a sharper signal worth immediate scrutiny. The divergence is most plausibly explained by outlet selection: the mainstream sample skews toward financial and policy coverage that reads as favorable in tone without necessarily tracking how ordinary readers experience economic conditions in their own lives, a documented pattern in financial journalism where market-facing framing and household-level reality frequently diverge.
Sentiment −1…+1 (VADER) — not truth. A gap means coverage and public mood point different directions, not that either is right. See all gaps →
Tier 2 — Pollster readings (20)
| Date | Pollster | Sample | Margin (+R / -D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Economist/YouGov | 1379 | -17.0 |
| 8/23 - 8/27 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
| 8/24 - 8/30 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -14.0 |
| 8/25 - 8/28 | I&I/TIPP | 1461 | -14.0 |
| 8/24 - 9/1 | RMG Research* | 3000 | -6.0 |
| 8/25 - 8/31 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -15.0 |
| 8/26 - 9/1 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
| 8/26 - 8/28 | Quantus Insights | 1200 | -15.0 |
| 8/27 - 9/2 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -12.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/30 | Morning Consult | 2200 | -14.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/30 | Harvard-Harris | 2100 | -8.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/31 | Reuters/Ipsos | 924 | -25.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/31 | Economist/YouGov | 1437 | -22.0 |
| 8/30 - 9/3 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -11.0 |
| 7/23 - 9/3 | RCP Average | — | -16.5 |
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Economist/YouGov | 1379 | -17.0 |
| 8/23 - 8/27 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
| 8/24 - 8/30 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -14.0 |
| 8/25 - 8/28 | I&I/TIPP | 1461 | -14.0 |
| 8/24 - 9/1 | RMG Research* | 3000 | -6.0 |
Tier 0 — Outcomes (0)
No outcomes recorded yet for this topic. Operator records outcomes at /admin/pollster-outcomes as elections, votes, and events resolve.
Tier 5 — Latent forecasting (the Clif-High layer)
Modal-language intensity + attention momentum + Wikipedia pageview signal. Predictive, not descriptive — what these signals suggest is coming.
Attention momentum (last 3d vs prior 3d)
-14.7%
FALLING
Modestly falling (-14.7% over 3 days).
Modal-language intensity (current day)
anger
1.6
fear
0.0
hope
3.2
dread
0.5
certainty
2.1
doubt
0.0
urgency
4.8
complacency
1.1
Hits per 1,000 words. Delta is 7d-vs-prior-7d change. Rising fear/dread/urgency + falling certainty/complacency = typical "crisis warm-up" pattern.
Tier 4 — Mainstream narrative coverage
VADER sentiment over 30 recent articles from operator-curated mainstream sources. This is what the major outlets are telling readers about this topic.
Average sentiment
-0.10
VADER compound · 30 articles
Source mix
Financial Times: 1 · +0.64
The Hill: 10 · -0.12
ABC News: 4 · -0.92
Washington Post: 1 · +0.92
Bloomberg: 6 · -0.41
CNBC: 4 · +0.45
Politico: 3 · +0.17
The Economist: 1 · +0.42
Recent mainstream coverage
Financial Times · 2026-09-05 ·
+0.64
The Hill · 2026-09-05 ·
-0.91
ABC News · 2026-09-05 ·
-0.85
The Hill · 2026-09-05 ·
-0.25
ABC News · 2026-09-05 ·
-0.97
ABC News · 2026-09-05 ·
-0.92
Washington Post · 2026-09-04 ·
+0.92
The Hill · 2026-09-04 ·
+0.80
Tier 3 — Prediction markets (20)
Money-on-the-line probabilities. When market price diverges > 10pts from the poll average, somebody is wrong.
| Platform | Question | YES probability | Volume | Captured | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 57% | $63 | 2026-09-05 04:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 48% | $26 | 2026-09-05 04:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 50% | $145 | 2026-09-05 04:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-05 04:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-05 04:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 49% | $26 | 2026-09-05 03:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 56% | $63 | 2026-09-05 03:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 50% | $145 | 2026-09-05 03:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-05 03:26 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-05 03:26 | ↗ |
Tier 1 — Social (paired, never merged)
Sentiment (avg compound, −1 to +1) split by platform political coding. Profoundd never merges left-coded and right-coded sources into a single number.
Left-coded platforms (BlueSky, r/politics, r/news…)
+0.02
avg VADER compound · 45645 posts
Sample left-coded posts
bluesky ·
+0.15
I hope we are able to burn into our collective memory the lesson that this is what happens when normal people don’t bother to vote for the normal candidate because they don’t think it matters to have a President who isn’t personality disord…
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.54
Trump routinely demonstrates that he serves Putin.
"Trump dodged a chance Friday to condemn President Vladimir Putin over allegations that Russia has conducted espionage attacks on NATO nations."
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.40
We shaved our class presidents head and burned a car at our senior party.
Incidentally, our class president ran on the “Stroh a party” ticket.
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.23
I know he's president of the United States but it's like he's retarded or something.
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.13
I mean if that guy actually has killed the president I would be willing to admit he was the most influential user of the site
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.66
From a trumpy "truth" earlier today re: Lake Ontario
"Since the name change, business on the United States side of the Lake has been absolutely BOOMING! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
link ↗
Sample right-coded posts
Tier 6 — Profoundd audience signal
Your readers' signal, not American public opinion. Last 30 days.
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