• • • Every month since April of 2022 the Fed has been slowly unwinding QE that it should not have done in the first place. Total Balance Sheet Reduction Since April 13, 2022 the Fed has reduced its balance sheet from $8.965 trillion to $6.856 trillion. That’s a reduction of $1.801 trillion in 2.66 years. The normal level before the Great Recession was about $860 billion. This balance sheet reduction is called Quantitative Tightening (QT). It’s the opposite of balance sheet expansion called Quantitative Easing (QE). Reverse Repo Reduction Reverse repos have fallen from $2.320 trillion to $0.456 trillion. Thus most of the reduction has been in reverse repos. Mortgage Backed Securities Reduction Since April 13, 2022 the Fed has reduced its MBS balance sheet from $2.740 trillion to $2.245 trillion. That’s a reduction of $0.495 trillion in 2.66 years. This is best described as a joke because the normal Fed holding of MBS is $0.000 trillion. Fed’s Balance Sheet by Duration Nearly all of the Fed’s MBS portfolio has a duration of 10 years or greater. The Fed will not sell MBS outright to stick to its announced schedule because that would pressure mortgage rates higher. Thus, the Fed portfolio reduction is entirely short term runoffs (of which there is a mere $57 million potential for all of 2025), plus any sales of homes on which the Fed holds the mortgage paper. Reducing the Runoff On May 1, 2024, Reuters reported the Fed Announces Reduction in Balance Sheet Runoff Pace . The Fed said that starting on June 1 it will reduce the cap on Treasury securities it allows to mature and not be replaced to $25 billion from its current cap of up to $60 billion per month. The Fed left the cap on how many mortgage-backed securities it will allow to roll off its books at $35 billion per month, and it will reinvest any excess MBS principal payments into Treasuries. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking in a press conference following the Fed meeting, said the new caps would likely result in around $40 billion per month in total balance sheet runoff, alluding to how actual reductions in bonds have frequently fallen short of the caps, notably on the mortgage bond side. Fed officials have been making the case that by moderating the drawdown pace they reduce the risk of unwanted market disruptions of the sort that occurred when they last shrunk their balance sheet. They’ve also noted that by slowing the pace of balance sheet contraction, it may allow them to reduce the overall size of their holdings by a greater degree. Powell reiterated those views in his press conference, saying “the decision to slow the pace of runoff does not mean that our balance sheet will ultimately shrink by less than it would otherwise, but rather allows us to approach its ultimate level more gradually,” which reduced the risk of market tumult. At $35 billion per month since April of 2022, the Fed would have reduced it MBS holding by $35 billion * 32 months which is $1.12 trillion. It’s MBS reduction is much less than half of that. But the Fed says slower means more. Yeah right. When Might the Fed End QT? J.P. Morgan asks When might the Fed end its quantitative tightening (QT) program? Since May 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by almost $2 trillion3, and it’s similarly been “like watching paint dry.” However, the Fed and market participants are sensitive to avoid another liquidity scare. As such, investors are curious; what might lead the Fed to end its current QT program and how soon? The RRP [Reverse Repo] is perceived as a measure of “excess’ liquidity meaning there are more dollars in short term vehicles—primarily money market funds—than there are supply of Treasury bills in the open market, and thus Treasury collateral is provided at the Fed via the RRP. However, as the Fed’s balance sheet continues to shrink, the RRP is well on its way to zero. Given this, a continuation of QT could last another three months without hiccup; thereafter, most of the decline in liquidity is likely to be seen in falling bank reserves. Importantly, regardless of the direction policy needs to go next year, they can only be successful if the market is functioning as intended. Hence, they should learn from their mistakes in 2019 and consider ending QT a bit earlier especially given fiscal policy uncertainty next year. Ending QT “a bit earlier” means a balance sheet of close to $7 trillion dollars forever. Meanwhile, please note Reverse Repos have been stick on exactly $456 billion ever since March 13, 2024. What’s up with that? Two Recession Indicators, What Do They Say Now? On December 20, I noted Two Recession Indicators, What Do They Say Now? A pair of very reliable Indicators still suggest recession. But will it be a stagflation recession with higher interest rates or will it be a deflationary recession? How about no recession at all with Trump blasting inflation higher until the Fed acts to force one? All of the above are possible outcomes. The Fed projects years ahead when the Fed cannot even see three months ahead. Dear Fed, Please Shut Up Already, Stop the Forward Guidance On December 21, I commented Dear Fed, Please Shut Up Already, Stop the Forward Guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth claims the Fed should be cutting more, not less. I have a different suggestion. The short version of my suggestion for the Fed is “STFU”. Total Balance Sheet Reduction Since April 13, 2022 the Fed has reduced its balance sheet from $8.965 trillion to $6.856 trillion. That’s a reduction of $1.801 trillion in 2.66 years. The normal level before the Great Recession was about $860 billion. This balance sheet reduction is called Quantitative Tightening (QT). It’s the opposite of balance sheet expansion called Quantitative Easing (QE). Reverse Repo Reduction Reverse repos have fallen from $2.320 trillion to $0.456 trillion. Thus most of the reduction has been in reverse repos. Mortgage Backed Securities Reduction Since April 13, 2022 the Fed has reduced its MBS balance sheet from $2.740 trillion to $2.245 trillion. That’s a reduction of $0.495 trillion in 2.66 years. This is best described as a joke because the normal Fed holding of MBS is $0.000 trillion. Fed’s Balance Sheet by Duration Nearly all of the Fed’s MBS portfolio has a duration of 10 years or greater. The Fed will not sell MBS outright to stick to its announced schedule because that would pressure mortgage rates higher. Thus, the Fed portfolio reduction is entirely short term runoffs (of which there is a mere $57 million potential for all of 2025), plus any sales of homes on which the Fed holds the mortgage paper. Reducing the Runoff On May 1, 2024, Reuters reported the Fed Announces Reduction in Balance Sheet Runoff Pace . The Fed said that starting on June 1 it will reduce the cap on Treasury securities it allows to mature and not be replaced to $25 billion from its current cap of up to $60 billion per month. The Fed left the cap on how many mortgage-backed securities it will allow to roll off its books at $35 billion per month, and it will reinvest any excess MBS principal payments into Treasuries. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking in a press conference following the Fed meeting, said the new caps would likely result in around $40 billion per month in total balance sheet runoff, alluding to how actual reductions in bonds have frequently fallen short of the caps, notably on the mortgage bond side. Fed officials have been making the case that by moderating the drawdown pace they reduce the risk of unwanted market disruptions of the sort that occurred when they last shrunk their balance sheet. They’ve also noted that by slowing the pace of balance sheet contraction, it may allow them to reduce the overall size of their holdings by a greater degree. Powell reiterated those views in his press conference, saying “the decision to slow the pace of runoff does not mean that our balance sheet will ultimately shrink by less than it would otherwise, but rather allows us to approach its ultimate level more gradually,” which reduced the risk of market tumult. At $35 billion per month since April of 2022, the Fed would have reduced it MBS holding by $35 billion * 32 months which is $1.12 trillion. It’s MBS reduction is much less than half of that. But the Fed says slower means more. Yeah right. When Might the Fed End QT? J.P. Morgan asks When might the Fed end its quantitative tightening (QT) program? Since May 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by almost $2 trillion3, and it’s similarly been “like watching paint dry.” However, the Fed and market participants are sensitive to avoid another liquidity scare. As such, investors are curious; what might lead the Fed to end its current QT program and how soon? The RRP [Reverse Repo] is perceived as a measure of “excess’ liquidity meaning there are more dollars in short term vehicles—primarily money market funds—than there are supply of Treasury bills in the open market, and thus Treasury collateral is provided at the Fed via the RRP. However, as the Fed’s balance sheet continues to shrink, the RRP is well on its way to zero. Given this, a continuation of QT could last another three months without hiccup; thereafter, most of the decline in liquidity is likely to be seen in falling bank reserves. Importantly, regardless of the direction policy needs to go next year, they can only be successful if the market is functioning as intended. Hence, they should learn from their mistakes in 2019 and consider ending QT a bit earlier especially given fiscal policy uncertainty next year. Ending QT “a bit earlier” means a balance sheet of close to $7 trillion dollars forever. Meanwhile, please note Reverse Repos have been stick on exactly $456 billion ever since March 13, 2024. What’s up with that? Two Recession Indicators, What Do They Say Now? On December 20, I noted Two Recession Indicators, What Do They Say Now? A pair of very reliable Indicators still suggest recession. But will it be a stagflation recession with higher interest rates or will it be a deflationary recession? How about no recession at all with Trump blasting inflation higher until the Fed acts to force one? All of the above are possible outcomes. The Fed projects years ahead when the Fed cannot even see three months ahead. Dear Fed, Please Shut Up Already, Stop the Forward Guidance On December 21, I commented Dear Fed, Please Shut Up Already, Stop the Forward Guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth claims the Fed should be cutting more, not less. I have a different suggestion. The short version of my suggestion for the Fed is “STFU”. Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. Powell pivoted in 2019 with eventual QE of $80B/month Treasuries and $40B/month corporate bonds plus MBS. Powell left $4T on their balance sheet in 2019, from the $4.5T mortgage crisis QE, that ended in 2014. Powell’s QT of $1.8T in 2 years is a jackrabbit in comparison. The expedient QT would have been to return corporate bonds. The Fed will own MBS until maturity. These are the worst of the 20- and 30-year tranches the Fed’s broker buddies hurriedly put together before the 2007 mortgage meltdown, when CMOs were selling like crypto currency is now. Catherine Austin Fitts purported some tranches contained a few subprime mortgages with the remainder fictional. A town in California had more mortgages on record than homes. CMOs were monetized and optioned 40 to 1. They were given AAA ratings by all the major credit rating agencies. Which allowed CMOs to be marketed to pension funds. After the crisis all the major credit ratings agencies were fined for their false ratings and CMOs were downgraded to junk. If a serious recession happened, and these tranches failed, they would be audited and disclosed as shams. All remaining CMOs would be questioned. This is the reason the Fed has inflated housing, and kept it afloat, at the burden of rising consumer prices. Inflated home prices devalues these CMOs. The Fed is half way through 30-year mortgage tranche maturities. It is doubtful they can keep the economy out of recession for the second half. There is absolutely no chance that the Fed will have completed their QT before the onset of the next financial crisis. I fully expect the Fed’s balance sheet to exceed $15 trillion at its peak in the aftermath of that event, resulting in a gold price of $5,000+/oz. People like Wolf Richter who follows the Fed balance sheet closely and understands what the Fed means by ample reserves says that it can’t go below low $6T. Therefore, sometime in 2025, they’ll have to stop QT. The real question is will the Fed let RRPOs go to zero before it has to spin up QE and start buying treasuries outside of a recession? What about liability side of FED’s B/S? $3.25 trillion of reserve balances sitting there and FED pays 4.40%p.a. on them. FRED’s chart tells us that this volume of reserve balances hasn’t changed since May 2023. Does this mean that the economy is struggling to suck in these reserve balances? Why? Because the economy is not growing? Or because reserves’ holders prefer credit risk of FED to credit risk of US government? I believe that the reserve holders feel there is a general lack of credit-worthy borrowers out there – including Uncle Sam. Looks like the new debt limit will be breached less than 2 weeks after the new budget resolution takes hold. This is problematic on multiple levels. The US now operates like a banana Republic. Printing more money to keep up appearances. I predict 2025 will be the year that things will end badly. Trump will wish he had not won and was just a private citizen. Much cannot be fixed without drastic impact to the economy. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/12/27/yellen-says-treasury-to-hit-new-debt-limit-in-mid-january/ Jerome Powell is indignant that he will complete his contract. 2025 may make want to quit as the markets are going to make him look like the fool he is. 2019 was just d éjà vu. It was a repeat of the initial introduction of interest on reserves that decimated the nonbanks (where the nonbanks shrank by 6.2 trillion dollars while the banks increased by 3.6 trillion dollars). I.e., the IOR was set at a higher rate than short-term interest rates. This acted like the nonbank disintermediation of the MSBs and S&Ls when Reg. Q ceilings were raised from 4.5 to 5.5 percent in December 1965. Balance sheet needs to shrink more– maybe $5 trillion or so. Some of it can’t shrink because there’s currency in circulation so the Fed needs to offset it. Free money (seignorage) for the US government in that case though, because the offsetting liabilities (physical cash) pay no interest and are sitting in god knows where in Columbia, Mexico, and Argentina. Fed owning MBS is a joke and a policy disaster, the fact that they own it and need to get rid of it puts a floor under mortgage rates and a ceiling on home prices for the next 10 years. Btw the data source you have on reverse repo is stale, here’s the new data. Should go to zero sometime in Q1, it’s been long overdue. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD How we’ll know if Trump is going to sell America out to ChinaKeep an eye on the export controls. They are the key. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-well-know-if-trump-is-going-to Just a messenger, the shitshow continues the dog team to bring emigrants to perform tasks that Americans can’t do another team to remove emigrants that perform jobs Americans don’t want to do the irony. This is what happens when you let the speculators and FIRE economy rule.. eventually even the productives realize it is easier to make money on speculation than work. This is how banana republics function Americans are too dumb for the white collar jobs, and want too much money. We’ll bring in Vivek’s cousins for that work, to drive up profits. Stupid Americans can take the jobs left behind by the deportees. I was afraid that was going to be your response president muskrat. On Dec 20th, RRPOs dipped to a very low $98B, but in 8 short days, they’ve shot up 2.5x to $268B. That’s crazy! I I’m not an expert on RRPOs interest paid by the Fed vs bank reserves, but some sort of funny business just happened, when they raised rates. The Fed has officially gone full retard / Modern Monetary Theory since 2008. With the ultra-low mortgage rates millions of Americans are locked in at with much higher for longer, there’s no way in hell MBS is going anywhere near zero before the next recession hits. So, if QT grinds to a stop, what potential impact will that have on inflation, since the money supply will stop shrinking? It’s quite obvious that the Fed’s balance sheet has it treading water. The Fed exists to protect the wealthy. It’s because of the end of the year– banks get trash off their balance sheet for a few days and then take it back after. Why the crowd on this blog are not talking about musk thoughts about the Americans aren’t qualified to do anything. They simply cannot face the reality of what I’m telling you lake. Leftist indoctrination does not produce education. In a new interview, Andreessen was talking about how certain companies have already dropped their DEI programs. Nothing substitutes for meritocracy. What are you talking about? Can you not read? Typical dumb American. Banks are waiting until Jan 20th to go hog wild. Going out on a limb here but I do have some insider info. Trump won’t finish his term and we will get JD Vance as president. Regarding this post I think we do get a recession in 2025 due to sheer stall speed when fiscal policy is uncertain. The US operates more like a banana Republic now and this instability is not good for anyone. The “FUNNY BUSINESS” now has become “BUSINESS AS USUAL.” We are smelling rats all over the ship now whereas before, the stink was cornered. My guess is your prediction will be about as accurate as the one about Biden not serving his full term and Kamala being installed via the 25th. I.e., not going to happen. Listen to fewer idiots online is my advice. Vance belongs to Peter Thiel. Do you want to see the first gay president? News that top US intelligence officials in 2021 suppressed research pointing to a Chinese lab leak as COVID’s origin raises two key questions: Exactly who, and why? That is, who made the call to keep Defense Department and FBI input out of the August 2021 briefing to President Biden on the issue, and out of the resulting official federal finding that COVID most likely arose naturally? And, indeed, to also block Sen. Charles Grassley’s requests for the Defense research? We know that Dr. Anthony Fauci and his public-health cronies had fought from the start to discredit all lab-leak talk. Their motive is obvious enough: Since they’d funded related (at least) research at that Wuhan lab, they feared a backlash — against them personally, and/or against such research and its funding. But why would the US intelligence community cover for Beijing, which would clearly bear the chief blame for cooking up a plague and then unleashing it on an unsuspecting world? The most likely explanation is that someone decided that the rest of the world would also blame the US government as a whole, maybe even more than it did China’s rulers — so it was best to cover the whole thing up. https://nypost.com/2024/12/27/opinion/who-decided-the-us-intelligence-community-would-suppress-key-covid-origin-research/ They were covering up the ACTUALITY that there was NO PANDEMIC and the numbers showed this back then. The whole point of the exercise was to KILL PEOPLE with Gates’s Dad the forefather (look it up). More than doubling total assets from Dec’19 to Apr’22, and then slowly reducing it by 23% still leaves a hell of a lot of ex nihilo $s floating around. Additionally, the currency component of the Monetary base continued to trickle upward after Apr’22. M2 is up almost 4% y-o-y. I suspect this “QT” wouldn’t seem like that much of a tightening were the whole world not so afflicted with debts that cannot be paid off. Watching trillions of fiat inflation being vaporized POOF! makes me SMILE. Court Authorizes Service of John Doe Summons for IRS to Seek Identities of U.S. Taxpayers Who Participated in the “Gig Economy” Via a Digital Platformhttps://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/court-authorizes-service-john-doe-summons-irs-seek-identities-us-taxpayers-who-participated That’s right… these little thieves made off with hundreds, maybe thousands of dollars that rightfully belongs to me! The great drama of American shale production may now be nearing its final act. For years, we have anticipated that the relentless growth in shale output would crest by late 2024 or early 2025, catching many off-guard. In hindsight, even this expectation might have erred on the side of caution. Quietly and without much fanfare, both shale oil and shale gas appear to have passed their zenith several months ago. Recent data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) reveal that shale crude oil production reached its high-water mark in November 2023, only to slide 2%— roughly 200,000 barrels per day—since then. Likewise, shale dry gas production peaked that same month and has since slipped by 1% or 1 billion cubic feet per day. The trajectory from here, according to our models, looks steeper still. “ After all, President-elect Trump’s “Three Arrows” energy plan prominently promises a 3-million-barrel-per-day increase in US oil-equivalent production. But we see this optimism as misplaced. The primary forces behind the current downturn are neither policy-related nor purely economic—they are geological and inexorable. Depletion, not market dynamics or regulatory overreach, is the central culprit.” “Prices soared from $3.18 per barrel in 1973 to $34 per barrel by 1981. Producers, true to their promises, responded with vigor. The rig count climbed from 993 in 1973 to a staggering 4,500 by late 1981. Yet despite this unprecedented surge in drilling activity, U.S. oil production steadily declined throughout the 1970s.  By the end of 1981, production had fallen to 8.5 million barrels per day —far below the peak achieved a decade earlier and lower than when Nixon announced his ambitious goals.” https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-depletion-paradox The Fed’s QT plan is like my diet plan. It starts next week. It always starts next week. Just one thing need to be remembered: when the sky is falling (due to incompetent monetary policies), there is no limit to the amount of printing. When doing QT, small baby steps mostly forward. Put a nice face to it, and ah.. those glasses look so smart and cool. The bond market made the FED look foolish. After 2 interest rate cuts, yields on the 10 year US bond reversed direction and are challenging the 2024 highs. 3.62% on 9/16/24, ~4.6% now, 5.0% soon. Whence from there? The FOMC “projected a scenario of higher inflation by the end of 2025” in their Dec. meeting. They must have been previously reading me. Contrary to Nobel Prize–winning economists Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz’s “ A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 “ monetary lags are not “long and variable”. No, the distributed lag effects for both real output and inflation have been mathematical constants for over 100 years The 2-year rate-of-change in money flows, the volume and velocity of means-of-payment money, the proxy for inflation, rises in 2025 (after bottoming in August). Inflationary depression. Well said You’re such a loyal little toady. Come here and bounce on my knee. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

Via the Brownstone Institute , Hollywood loves a good sequel and so does politics and pharmaceutical development. Since Covid, there have been several attempted disease scares – Mpox, Swine flu, Bird flu, Chikungunya, Measles – but nothing has really caught the attention of audiences like the new Hantavirus frenzy. Today’s evidence comes from DRUDGE REPORT : global effort to stop the spread. Is “flatten the curve” next? Let’s remember how this began last year, with of course, a hantavirus death in the family of one of America’s most beloved Hollywood actors . It was Betsy Arakawa, Gene Hackman’s wife, who died February 12, 2025, from apparent hantavirus infection from rodents in the home. Terrifying image. At that point, no regular person had ever heard of such a disease. There is a reason. It’s rare and human-to-human spread is nearly unknown. Strange that it would hit the wife of the appropriately named Gene Hackman (get it?), leading man of the prescient 1998 movie Enemy of the State . Next up we have a reprise of the Plague Ship motif. Like the Diamond Princess, it is a cruise ship, the MV Hondius operated by Oceanwide Expeditions with 147 passengers, departing from Argentina and now anchored off Cape Verde, West Africa. It was headed to the Canary Islands when three people died, two with lab-confirmed hantavirus. No port would allow the ship to dock. With the assistance of rescue boats, the dead have been carefully removed by workers in hazmats and masks. A flight attendant who came in contact with a dead body is now hospitalized and in rough condition, suggesting that even coming close to a person with hantavirus is risky stuff. No one can figure out how this is even possible. So mysterious, so unusual, so terrifying, just like the movie Contagion . This fits with the theory of Drs. Fauci and Morens that we need not worry about lab-created pathogens when animal-to-human spillover is becoming more common. This is why, they wrote in August 2020, that we must commence to “rebuilding the infrastructures of human existence, from cities to homes to workplaces, to water and sewer systems, to recreational and gatherings venues.” Ready to opine for the press is the World Health Organization’s Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, she of Stanford University pedigree, now widely quoted as the go-to authority. You might remember Dr. Kerkhove from the original cast of the Covid production. It was she who wrote the WHO’s report to the world following the February 2020 junket to Wuhan . (We know this from the metadata of the report, which she failed to cleanse in the rush to publication.) “Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures,” she wrote of the CCP’s extreme lockdowns, “ has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat. At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.” Many close observers credit Kerkhove’s report with inspiring the worldwide lockdown of all nations but four in the following weeks. She still works at the WHO. Hardly anyone remembers any of this. There is no mechanism in place for her to be held to account for her role. There is no known cure but a vaccine is in development by Moderna based on the mRNA platform. As a result, Moderna’s stock, down dramatically from its highs, is now starting to recover. It is now up 100 percent year over year. The buy signal is strong with this one. Looking back at the Covid prequel, there was always a flaw in the coronavirus caper, namely its short period of latency, roughly that of a cold or flu. You are infectious for a few days without symptoms while you pass it on. A genuine disease panic needs a longer period of latency. You need to be infected for weeks while spreading it far and wide. Why is this? Because every infectious disease confronts the logic of survival. A smart virus does not kill its hosts – it needs them to infect others – but a dumb one does, which is why dumb viruses are not good candidates for pandemics. This persistent trade-off between severity and prevalence can only be gamed by a long period of latency. That’s extremely rare and not even lab-created viruses manage this balancing act well. As it turns out, this hantavirus does have a very long period of latency, we are assured by the Harvard School of Public Health. It has issued a pronouncement : “The incubation period – the time between when a person is infected and when they begin to experience symptoms – is usually in the range of two to three weeks, but may be as long as eight weeks.” Two months! Imagine that. Here we might finally have our candidate for the silent killer about which Deborah Birx fantasized during the last iteration of this story. Keep in mind that no high institution in the US has repudiated lockdowns , even if two-thirds of the public believes they were pointlessly damaging. The call for Covid Justice has now 37,300 signatures but not enough to cause the Senate, House, or any other legislative body to speak clearly that this will never be tolerated again. To this day, the plan of the World Health Organization – which is already practicing for the next pandemic – is to push for lockdowns until vaccination in the event of a new disease scare. “Every country should apply non-pharmaceutical measures systematically and rigorously at the scale the epidemiological situation requires,” they say. Meanwhile, the Biden plan was for a 130-day lockdown in the event of a new pandemic. There are few mechanisms in place in any country to prevent this from happening. There are good people in government who would oppose this with strong conviction but will they even be asked their opinions? Or does this all occur with any obvious evidence of democratic volition? Who precisely is directing and producing this sequel? No one knows for sure . Will it be a box office hit like the last time or only have a limited release to test market interest? All the ingredients are here for an Academy Award: rodents, long latency, spread through casual contact with the dead, workers in hazmat suits, no known cure, a vaccine in rushed development. The real beauty of disease panic is that it has broad audience appeal and crosses partisan lines. National Review is all in already, as it was with Covid, and surely The Nation will join the effort in days. These are well-worn plot devices and sequels are rarely as compelling or profitable as the original. But when one is out of other ideas – and the public clamor to indict Fauci grows by the hour – it’s always worth a shot.

• • • Rand Paul’s Floor Speech Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., addressed the Senate Monday afternoon as his colleagues prepared to vote for a $900 billion coronavirus relief package and told his fellow Republicans who backed the stimulus that they are no better than the Democrats they criticize who align themselves with socialism. “If free money was the answer… if money really did grow on trees, why not give more free money?” he said. “Why not give it out all the time? Why stop at $600 a person? Why not $1,000? Why not $2,000? Maybe these new Free-Money Republicans should join the Everybody-Gets-A-Guaranteed-Income Caucus? Why not $20,000 a year for everybody, why not $30,000? If we can print out money with impunity, why not do it?” The Senate did pass the bill 91-6. That’s easily enough to override a Trump veto. Trump has moaned, and rightfully so, about many of the things in the combined Covid-Budget package that has yet to hit his desk. But curiously, Rand Paul and Trump are actually at odds. AOC Agrees With Trump’s Request to Send $2,000 Free Money to Everyone As noted yesterday, AOC Agrees With Trump’s Request to Send $2,000 Free Money to Everyone . Will Trump sign it? Veto it? Something else? Something Else? Please note the Covid bill still has not reached Trump’s desk. Also note that Congress adjourns on January 3. These dates are very important. The constitution gives a president 10 days to sign or veto a bill. If it does not happen within that time, not counting Sundays, the bill becomes law. But if Congress has formally adjourned (there are procedures to make sure that isn’t artificial, and this one isn’t), that supersedes the 10-day rule. Letting time expire is known as a pocket veto. The key date/time to watch is noon on Jan. 3. That is when the 116th Congress comes to an end. We are now within the 10-day window giving Trump 4 options. Trump Has Four Options In Play Trump can sign the bill and moan about it more. Trump can veto the bill but that veto could be overridden. Trump can kill the bill by putting it in his pocket. Trump can wait until January 2 or the morning of January 3, then veto it, giving Congress minimal time for an override. Covid Bill – What Will Trump Do? — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) December 24, 2020 Which option will Trump choose? Mish Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., addressed the Senate Monday afternoon as his colleagues prepared to vote for a $900 billion coronavirus relief package and told his fellow Republicans who backed the stimulus that they are no better than the Democrats they criticize who align themselves with socialism. “If free money was the answer… if money really did grow on trees, why not give more free money?” he said. “Why not give it out all the time? Why stop at $600 a person? Why not $1,000? Why not $2,000? Maybe these new Free-Money Republicans should join the Everybody-Gets-A-Guaranteed-Income Caucus? Why not $20,000 a year for everybody, why not $30,000? If we can print out money with impunity, why not do it?” The Senate did pass the bill 91-6. That’s easily enough to override a Trump veto. Trump has moaned, and rightfully so, about many of the things in the combined Covid-Budget package that has yet to hit his desk. But curiously, Rand Paul and Trump are actually at odds. AOC Agrees With Trump’s Request to Send $2,000 Free Money to Everyone As noted yesterday, AOC Agrees With Trump’s Request to Send $2,000 Free Money to Everyone . Will Trump sign it? Veto it? Something else? Something Else? Please note the Covid bill still has not reached Trump’s desk. Also note that Congress adjourns on January 3. These dates are very important. The constitution gives a president 10 days to sign or veto a bill. If it does not happen within that time, not counting Sundays, the bill becomes law. But if Congress has formally adjourned (there are procedures to make sure that isn’t artificial, and this one isn’t), that supersedes the 10-day rule. Letting time expire is known as a pocket veto. The key date/time to watch is noon on Jan. 3. That is when the 116th Congress comes to an end. We are now within the 10-day window giving Trump 4 options. Trump Has Four Options In Play Covid Bill – What Will Trump Do? — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) December 24, 2020 Which option will Trump choose? Mish Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. If Grassley can give himself $200k a year, he can give Americans $30k a year. Another Sidney Powell witness is a lying scammer…no special knowledge of anything except making up shit on line and petty criminality… …As she asked the U.S. Supreme Court this month to overturn President Trump’s election loss, the attorney Sidney Powell cited testimony from a secret witness presented as a former intelligence contractor with insights on a foreign conspiracy to subvert democracy. Powell told courts that the witness is an expert who could show that overseas corporations helped shift votes to President-elect Joe Biden. The witness’s identity must be concealed from the public, Powell has said, to protect her “reputation, professional career and personal safety.” The Washington Post identified the witness by determining that portions of her affidavit match, sometimes verbatim, a blog post that the pro-Trump podcaster Terpsichore Maras-Lindeman published in November 2019. In an interview, Maras-Lindeman confirmed that she wrote the affidavit and said she viewed it as her contribution to a fight against the theft of the election…. ….In a recent civil fraud case, attorneys for the state of North Dakota said that Maras-Lindeman falsely claimed to be a medical doctor and to have both a PhD and an MBA. They said she used multiple aliases and social security numbers and created exaggerated online résumés as part of what they called “a persistent effort . . . to deceive others.”… …Maras-Lindeman, 42, served in the Navy for less than a year more than two decades ago and has said she worked later as a government contractor and part-time interpreter. She has identified herself as a “trained cryptolinguist.”…. ….North Dakota’s assertions about her credentials came in a civil case brought by the state’s attorney general in 2018 over a purported charitable event she tried to organize in Minot, N.D., where she and her family resided. Attorneys for the state said she used money she collected — ostensibly to fund homeless shelters and wreaths for veterans’ graves — on purchases for herself at McDonald’s, QVC and elsewhere. A judge ultimately found that Maras-Lindeman violated consumer protection laws by, among other things, misspending money she raised and soliciting donations while misrepresenting her experience and education. He ordered her to pay more than $25,000….. ….Maras-Lindeman, who is of Greek heritage, joined the Navy in December 1996 and spent eight months training in Illinois and Florida as an airman recruit before departing the service in August 1997, according to a Navy record. In their civil case, North Dakota state attorneys said that Maras-Lindeman created a profile on Together We Served, an online veteran community, that incorrectly depicted an extensive military career. The profile, which is no longer online, said that Maras-Lindeman reached the rank of lieutenant, served in the combat zones of Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, and in the Office of Naval Intelligence, and was awarded multiple medals including a Purple Heart. In the interview, Maras-Lindeman denied creating the profile and said whoever did had misstated the details of her career. She previously posted to Twitter a purported copy of her Navy separation paperwork, which said that she specialized in communications and intelligence. Neither the record provided to The Post nor the paperwork Maras-Lindeman posted online stated a reason for her departure, but the papers she posted said that the character of her discharge was “general (under honorable conditions).” In response to questions about the nature of the discharge, a Navy spokesman referred to the Navy Military Personnel Manual. The manual said it means, “The quality of the member’s service has been honest and faithful; however, significant negative aspects of the member’s conduct or performance of duty outweighed positive aspects of the member’s service record.”… Many people struggling to make ends meet. Multiple part time jobs. Meth lab and propane tank delivery service out of an RV, for example. According to my calculations, the 3 trillion the Fed gave to the Ultra Rich/Wall Street is equal to $10,000 per person in the US. Anything less than it a stimulus check of about $30,000 per person is basic common sense. If you oppose it, you clearly are an advocate of Royalty and despise working folk. Trump should demand the $3 Trillion of free money Jerome Powell gave to Wall Street and the Ultra Rich plus the $5 Trillion in tax cuts Trump gave to rich gigantic monopoly like Amazon Google Walmart FekeBook that Mist SOOOOOO LOOOOOVESSSSS, and other corporations like medical drug monopolies that already don’t pay don’t pay taxes because Ireland and offshoring, but rebated back to those of who have paid for these Socialist Subsides…and DEMAND A $100,000 rebate check to every single working American. Another couple of lumps of coal in the stocking… President Donald Trump’s ineffectual bid to persuade the courts to overturn his defeat at the polls last month suffered another defeat on Christmas Eve as a federal appeals court rejected his attempt to challenge President-elect Joe Biden’s win by nearly 21,000 votes in Wisconsin. A three-judge panel of the Chicago-based 7th Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously dismissed arguments from Trump’s attorneys that the Wisconsin Election Commission violated the U.S. Constitution through steps prompted by the coronavirus pandemic, including easing photo identification requirements and allowing the use of dropboxes to collect absentee ballots. The appeals court judges who ruled against Trump on Thursday were all Republican appointees. The author of the court’s opinion, Judge Michael Scudder, was appointed by Trump…. …Republicans were also rebuffed Thursday afternoon by a Georgia court over a bid to tighten restrictions on dropboxes and increase access for poll watchers in connection with the pivotal twin Senate runoff elections set for Jan. 5. At the end of a 90-minute hearing held via Zoom, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Kimberly Esmond Adams dismissed the suit brought earlier this month by the Republican National Committee and the Georgia GOP. Decisions by the judges at various U.S. Courts give me some hope for this country mired in TrumPandemic. To paraphrase a line from a romantic comedy, you had me at “Chicago”. Rand talks big, but KY gets 40% of its state budget from the feds and has the 3rd highest rate of citizens dependent on the feds (ND and NM are higher)–making it the number 3 consumer of the fed dollars–in good times!! Another case of fine Americans misled on how righteous and independent they are. Maybe its time Rand should implement some of his philosophy in his state. Whoops., actually number 2 (!) consumer of fed dollars. It’s no problem that fat cat capitalists get billions, but “bad economics” when workers get $2,000. Even if they are going to be paying it back through their taxes. And the boss class will pay less than the working class, bet on it. He only went to the $2k idea for the same reason as Sen Hawley (POS) did – b/e it was devisee to getting anything. He’s just throwing hand grenades. He’s gone so over the top he’s becoming a caricature of himself. A speech went viral. I think you have fallen into the trap of social media Mish. Social media is basically a bunch of Trumps and Rand Pauls – whiny assholes and bitches – who create crises and do nothing to solve them for the average person. It takes a minimum of 270 elected officials to make a change, not a single person. Rand Paul has been re-elected, so voter must like the job he is doing. Voicing objections (identifying the problem) is the first step to making a change (solving the problem). And if voters in other districts agree with the objections; then they will force their elected officials to respond. Rand Paul is making a point. That point is that when people realize that US dollars, backed by debt, is a ponzi scheme that relies on the belief that those dollars are money, otherwise we are Venezuela. But then I wonder if 10 people even understand the difference between asset backed money and debt backed money Most money is based on debt. Asset prices should be renamed debt prices. Asset values are mostly accounting chicanery. Paul is about 20 years late on whatever points he is trying to make. The problem is the system was solvent 20 years ago. Now it isn’t. The problem with Paul and others like him is they don’t realize they are part of the system. If Paul truly believed what he was saying, he would not hold any dollars or cash in his “asset” portfolio. Has Paul done anything to start even changing the system he complains about ? Anything with changing accounting laws ? Anything with changing anything related to finance or accounting ? Rand Paul can make his point. He can even be correct. And still millions of people are in financial peril from federal inaction. When RON Paul last ran for President I checked his asset disclosures on his website and it mostly all gold and silver miners. Not quite, US dollars ultimatly are backed by the US taxpayers, perhaps at this point by not yet born taxpayers. That’s a myth and often presumed. The Government has no obligation to ever redeem US dollars. Once printed, how do they redeem them? They’d have to just burn or cancel them so ultimately they’d be left to circulate and their purchasing power would rely purely on the confidence of the general public. If the public lose confidence in them they’d just demand more and more for them when buying goods and services with them. Regarding interest bearing debt such as US Treasuries, they are guaranteed by the US Government but their only obligation is to repay them at maturity with US dollars. They’re under no obligation to raise taxes to do so, their ultimate obligation is to just print US dollars to do so, which is what they’re ultimately backed by, the printing press. Unless you dig that gold out of the ground yourself, your still acquiring them some form of debt exchange. Debt and assets are the same thing, just put on different sides of a ledger. Choice 3. Republicans winning at least one of the two Senate races in Georgia is the game now. The Republican majority Senate really didn’t want such a large “stimulus” check to go to individuals, but they can’t afford to take the blame for voting it down. The fact that the Senate has not presented the President with the bill so close to adjournment and the special election in GA tells me Republicans have left Georgia voters with the impression they are getting their “stimulus”, but want the clock to run out on the bill. If the President vetoes the bill before the special election is over; then Republicans look bad, even if there are a near unanimous amount of votes to override the President. This is an extension of the Hastert Principle. Instead of preventing an unwinnable bill from being voted on, pass a bill knowing the President will veto the bill unchallenged since there is no more time on the clock. “Trump can sign the bill and moan about it more.” And if he doesn’t, unemployment benefits will expire in two days time…..for the same people he’s supposedly so worried about needing money . Bit of a Catch-22, don’t you think? “Trump can veto the bill but that veto could be overridden.” If he vetoes it it surely will be overridden. So that would be pointless….unless he is just trying to make some statement that makes sense only to Himself. “Trump can kill the bill by putting it in his pocket.” That would cause a government shutdown unless the Senate passes a unanimous continuing resolution early next week. Think McConnell would be eager to do that after being ratf**ked by Trump? I doubt it. If wants Trump really just wants to kill the bill, this is the best option to accomplish that…but I doubt he’d do it. “Trump can wait until January 2 or the morning of January 3, then veto it, giving Congress minimal time for an override.” I still think the veto gets over-ridden, but it would add to the drama….and Trump is a drama queen. Pelosi tried and failed to push a $2K payment by unanimous consent in the House today and the GOP blocked it. She is going to push a standalone $2K bill on Monday, and she probably will get it through the House. That would allow Trump to sign the first bill and then the Senate could fight over whether or not to approve the larger handout. But that doesn’t address the pork in the Omnibus part of the bill. I expect Trump to threaten the veto and try to get McConnnell to make the changes he wants next week…and will sign some slightly altered version…..proving he is a true Hugo Chavez populist…..and a Real Tough Negotiator. Then all the people will gather around to insist that we should ignore the results of the election and give Trump at least four more years….if not a lifetime tenure. In his mind. You do realize that his administration went along with the omnibus before he suddenly turned against it. In a 1.2 trillion omnibus that covers half of the government you can find line items taken out of context that are “pork” until the reasoning behind them is explained. Just watched a video that had Charlie Munger interview. He said China, over the past 30 years had sustained a high rate of growth that any other country would love and it was done under one party. A controlling communist party. A one party system can be successful if they create a lot of Smithian capitalism. I think he is referring economist Adam Smith. That was a surprising comment? Makes me think what are the differences? In China, the state makes laws and controls the state owned companies while in the U.S and because of the power of lobbying, public and private companies are now making the laws and control their own fate. I look forward to Charlie and Warren relocating to Wuhan to hold their folksy annual meetings. The effective merger of state and corporate bosses has always been the chief hallmarks of fascism. In the US this has already taken place behind the theatre of the duopoly that keeps the population divided and distracted by launching campaigns about guns, gays, gender, god, whatever. In the US this will probably become more and more open, with no realistic political challenges to the rulers. There are also differences of course. In China the party has to improve the lives of the people and is not exclusively out for the benefits of the oligarchy, capital only has so much freedom and autonomy. The political class is much more competent and far less corrupt. And the support behind the leadership and its policies at all levels is an order of magnitude higher than in the US. At the same time, Chinese civilization has granted fewer individual rights, but in the USA these seem to be melting away as well in the new techno-feudal imperial surveillance state. And the imperial conquest of adjacent land or for that matter lands at much further reach have never formed a theme in Chinese civilization — that seems to be more of a Western value. My guess would be number 1: If the bill doesn’t go through he’d perceive that as bad for the stock market which would be more damaging to him and his friends. And Pelosi’s friends and McConnell’s friends. And Pelosi’s friends and McConnell’s friends. Regardless his hissy fit is causing 15 million people to lose benefits for no fault of their own the week after Christmas. Grow up. I know it is too late for that. BTW: his administration has been deep into the talks on this all the way, with many of the things he is railing against part of his own administration’s demands. So saying “I hate it” is just stupid. I find it absurd that a President who allowed nearly 350,000 deaths on his watch is suddenly concerned Americans need $2000 . It’s all ego and self destruction. There are no principles involved 8000 people die per day in US x 365 days/year x 4 years = 11,650,000 dead during Trump’s time in office. Thank you, Captain Irrelevant. Deaths went up in 2020 compared to 2019 by over 400,000, the largest percentage increase since 1918, and possibly the largest absolute increase ever. Lots of reasons this hit harder in the USA than Egypt or Morocco or India, but as soon as I saw a video of orderlies training on how to turn intubated people with 8 people, I realized they were obese, and soon after obesity was confirmed as one of the strongest co-morbid factors. Fat Americans never had a chance. The people who think things would have been different without Trump are engaged in partisan self-delusion. Multi-variable studies of the severity in various countries do not point to NPI’s having much weight. Much of the difference cannot be explained, the most important of 24 variables is the extent of the flu mortality burden the two years prior (‘dead wood’). I would add a variable to the mix, but not one I have seen in a study: influence of the Pharma complex (countries without it have had far more success getting the fatality rate down). Close to 700k died in last Pandemic. It’s still too early but based on population we might not be doing that bad. Better 2k here than to others, ridiculous amounts of monies for what? Are we buying our friends? If anything he has identified the waste and the problem that has infiltrated our system. Don’t stop there! Who put forward these monies destined for foreign soil? They need to be identified and callout and explain their rational. Trump may be all you think but right now he is doing exactly (won’t go far enough) what we want. Transparent government right? We need change badly! Trump is unbridled rage at this point. His actions can’t be judged from a logical framework. He vetoed the defense bill and threatened not to sign the covid bill because he feels irrelevant. He’s angry he lost and scared about a post Presidential life. Want to know what he’s going to do? Ask a psychiatrist. I’ve said for years Trump is a psychopath. It was a always going to end with angry chaos and vengeance. None of this is normal. Stop treating it as such “His actions can’t be judged from a logical framework.” They NEVER could as he is an incoherent, inarticulate, incompetent, incontinent, morbidly obese, narcissistic psychopath. Mish, thanks for the civics lesson. Even the “I’m Just A Bill” from Schoolhouse Rock during the Saturday morning cartoons 50 years ago is old law school quality as compared to what crap the mass media spins today about the branches of government and legislation. Ya mean than the Supreme Court doesn’t invent laws? Ya mean that governors of states can’t invent laws or “orders” or “mandates”? I’d take option 4, primarily for the purpose of speeding up the RINO extinction. America First. Have a link to one of these, or are you just spewing bs like usual? RINO? I presume you mean Trump? Governors absolutely have authority to issue mandates related to public health in an emergency, it’s called the 10th Amendment. State and local governments absolutely have that power. Regulation for the benefit of public health is one of the oldest, longest established valid functions of governments, ranking right up there with the police and the military. Nevertheless, what is and isn’t a valid exercise of that power depends on the Constitutions, statutes, and regulations on a state by state basis. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times , Then-National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Dr. Francis Collins , around the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, acknowledged that he secretly assisted with a paper stating the virus that causes COVID-19 "is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus," according to a newly released missive. "This is work that Tony, Jeremy, Larry, and I helped with, but are appropriately not mentioned explicitly in the paper," Collins said in the March 6, 2020, email to NIH officials, which was released by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on June 11. Tony refers to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime head of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases through late 2022. Jeremy refers to Jeremy Farrar, at the time the director of the Wellcome Trust. Larry refers to Dr. Lawrence Tabak, an NIH official. Collins noted the conclusion that stated, "The analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered." SARS-CoV-2 is the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The first COVID-19 cases appeared in Wuhan, China, in 2019, near a laboratory that was conducting enhanced experiments on coronaviruses funded by the NIH. Collins was responding to an email from Kristian Andersen, one of the authors of the paper, which was titled "The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2." Andersen and other scientists said in the paper, published on March 17, 2020, in Nature Medicine, that they analyzed data and concluded that it came from nature. To date, no natural source has been identified for the virus. The Trump administration maintains the virus came from the Wuhan lab. The paper did not mention any contributions from Collins, Fauci, Tabak, or Farrar, who made at least one critical change to the document, according to emails released by lawmakers in 2023. It thanked American virologist Michael Farzan "for discussions" and the Wellcome Trust "for support." Nature did not return a request for comment by the time of publication. Collins did not respond to a request for comment. Collins told lawmakers in 2024 that his role "was for information, not for me to edit," that he never edited or suggested edits to the paper , and that, to his knowledge, neither did Fauci or Farrar. He also said he is not a virology expert. Early drafts of the paper had the authors stating that it was possible that the virus came from a lab. In private messages, since made public, the authors also said that characteristics of the virus indicated it was manmade. They have defended the changes in their stances as being driven by evidence. In the newly released emails, Andersen, who has said that the paper was "prompted" by Collins, Fauci, and Farrar, had written to the trio. " Thank you again for your advice and leadership as we have been working through the SARS-CoV-2 'origins' paper, " he said. He told them he welcomed comments, suggestions, and questions about the paper, which had just been accepted for publication. Collins said in a previously released email to Fauci, Tabak, and others in April 2020 that he was wondering whether the NIH could "help put down this very destructive conspiracy," linking to an article alleging the pandemic started in a lab in Wuhan. " I hoped the Nature Medicine article on the genomic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 would settle this," he said. "But probably didn't get much visibility. Anything more we can do? " Collins told lawmakers in 2024 that in the email, "I meant that we should do what we can to get the truth out there, as opposed to statements that were reckless and speculative that were not based on evidence." He said that the possibility that the virus came from the lab, whether it originated there or not, was not a conspiracy theory. Fauci, who has denied allegations that Proximal Origins was written to disprove the lab origin theory, met on multiple occasions with intelligence officials in 2020 and 2021. James Erdman III, a CIA operations officer, told Paul and other senators in May that Fauci provided a list of experts to whom the intelligence community (IC) should talk, and that the list included the Proximal Origins authors. "Dr. Anthony Fauci influenced the IC's analytic process and COVID origin's findings by leveraging his position to ensure the IC consulted with a conflicted list of curated Subject Matter Experts (SME), public health officials, and scientists," Erdman said. Fauci has not returned emails seeking comment on Erdman's testimony and the missives Paul just released. One of those emails showed Fauci wrote to Beth Cameron, a National Security Council official, on July 8, 2021, a day after he took part in a council briefing. "The article accessible from the link in the subject line above just came out as a 'preprint' yesterday. It is from a group of highly qualified virologists," Fauci wrote. "Please show it to your team. It summarizes what I said yesterday." The article, titled "The Origin of SARS-CoV-2," included Farrar and Anderson as coauthors. The authors said that there was "currently no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin" while there was evidence supporting links to animal markets in Wuhan. Fauci "was pushing the natural-origin story while secretly getting classified briefings on the actual origins," Paul wrote in a post on X. "The American people were told one story. These documents - and a CIA officer's sworn testimony - tell another," he added in a follow-up post.

• • • A New York Fed survey shows 1-year and 3-year look ahead moving expectations are at record lows. Data download from the New York Fed, chart by Mish I picked up this story from a friend who sent a link to an inaccurate CNBC article: Renters’ hopes of being able to buy a home have fallen to a record low, New York Fed survey shows [Mish note – This is incorrect, see below] The share of renters who believe that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4%, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. That is strikingly inaccurate. What the survey shows is the probability of moving fell to a record low of 13.4 percent. And as is typical of mainstream media articles, the author did not link to the report or the data making it not so easy to spot the error. New York Fed Survey Let’s take a look at the actual NY Fed press release Housing Price Growth Expectations Increase; Renters Express Concern for Ability to Own a Home Average expectations of residential mobility, the percent chance of moving to a different primary residence, fell to new series lows at both the one-year (13.4%) and three-year (24.5%) horizons, continuing a declining mobility trend since 2014 . On average, households perceive that national mortgage rates are currently higher than pre-pandemic levels and expect them to rise further in the future. Households now expect mortgage rates to rise to 8.7% a year from now and 9.7% in three years’ time, both of which are series highs. Still, households on average believe there is a 61% chance that mortgage rates will fall over the next 12 months, which is also a series high. Homeowners’ expected probability of refinancing rebounded slightly to 6.3% after falling for the last two years. It remains well below the pre-pandemic average of 10.4%. Renters’ perceptions about the ease of obtaining a mortgage deteriorated substantially, as 74.2% stated that obtaining a mortgage is somewhat or very difficult. This represents an 8.4 percentage point increase from last year, and is well above the 2021 low of 50.5%. Further, renters’ self-assessed probability of ever owning a home decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 40.1%, which also reflects a series low . New York Fed Rent Increase Expectations The average renter expects their rent will go up another 9.7 percent in the next year. Ease in Obtaining a Mortgage Mortgage Notes A record 46.0 percent say it is very difficult to obtain a mortgage. A record 74.2 percent say it is somewhat to very difficult to obtain a mortgage. A record low 10.1 percent say it is very to somewhat easy to obtain a mortgage. Probability of Renters Buying a Home Probability of Renters Buying a Home Twenty-five percent of renters have essentially given up on the idea of ever owning a home. The median expectation is a mere 35 percent. The average expectation is 40.1 percent. All of those are record lows. Trapped In Your Home and Trapped Renting The lead chart shows a record number of people are trapped in their homes, unable or unwilling to trade a 3.0 percent mortgage for a mortgage well over 7.0 percent. The remaining charts show record numbers of people expect further steep increases in the cost of rent, unable to do anything about it. Home Prices Hit New Record High The Case-Shiller national home price index hit a new high in February. That’s the latest data. Economists don’t count this as inflation. Case-Shiller national and 10-city indexes via St. Louis Fed, OER, CPI, and Rent from the BLS On May 2, I noted Home Prices Hit New Record High, Don’t Worry, It’s Not Inflation The Case-Shiller national home price index hit a new high in February. That’s the latest data. Economists don’t count this as inflation. Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago? On April 10, I asked Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago? I address the question from the standpoint of real (inflation adjusted) hourly earnings and assets, specifically home ownership. People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs. Image courtesy of Axios + Generation Lab Youth Poll On April 20, I posted People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election Q: Who are the renters? A: Young voters and blacks who are abandoning Biden in massive numbers. They are upset over rent and being priced out of a home. I picked up this story from a friend who sent a link to an inaccurate CNBC article: Renters’ hopes of being able to buy a home have fallen to a record low, New York Fed survey shows [Mish note – This is incorrect, see below] The share of renters who believe that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4%, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. That is strikingly inaccurate. What the survey shows is the probability of moving fell to a record low of 13.4 percent. And as is typical of mainstream media articles, the author did not link to the report or the data making it not so easy to spot the error. New York Fed Survey Let’s take a look at the actual NY Fed press release Housing Price Growth Expectations Increase; Renters Express Concern for Ability to Own a Home New York Fed Rent Increase Expectations The average renter expects their rent will go up another 9.7 percent in the next year. Ease in Obtaining a Mortgage Mortgage Notes Probability of Renters Buying a Home Probability of Renters Buying a Home All of those are record lows. Trapped In Your Home and Trapped Renting The lead chart shows a record number of people are trapped in their homes, unable or unwilling to trade a 3.0 percent mortgage for a mortgage well over 7.0 percent. The remaining charts show record numbers of people expect further steep increases in the cost of rent, unable to do anything about it. Home Prices Hit New Record High The Case-Shiller national home price index hit a new high in February. That’s the latest data. Economists don’t count this as inflation. On May 2, I noted Home Prices Hit New Record High, Don’t Worry, It’s Not Inflation The Case-Shiller national home price index hit a new high in February. That’s the latest data. Economists don’t count this as inflation. Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago? On April 10, I asked Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago? I address the question from the standpoint of real (inflation adjusted) hourly earnings and assets, specifically home ownership. People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs. Image courtesy of Axios + Generation Lab Youth Poll On April 20, I posted People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election Q: Who are the renters? A: Young voters and blacks who are abandoning Biden in massive numbers. They are upset over rent and being priced out of a home. Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. Its 9% rent hikes imminent for apartments? If I believed that I would sell my house, move to an apartment, and invest in apartment REITs. Apartments are overbuilt in most places. boo hoo – our 2 oldest – one 29 other 26(just sold 1st home) own homes for past 5 years both make LIVING WAGE youngest – no college but cashed out with $150k on 1st home – now getting permits to build new home using C A S H our youngest just graduated – all had $$0 student loan debt and AS PARENTS we did not help with tuition/books/etc. – they’re A D U L T S and need to pay own way Only a significant deterioration in my health would motivate me to sell and move, thanks to low property taxes (under California’s Proposition 13). Selling the house would trigger a large capital gains tax. A large family sized tent is 10,000x cheaper than a home in California right now. How many of those are boomers pretending they’re gonna live in their McMansion until they die? Expectations have little effect on outcomes. I can *get* the mortgage but I can’t *afford* the mortgage, property tax, insurance (if I can even get it), overhead, etc. The housing market, especially in California with Prop 13, is badly broken. One more big reason to run for the border. It would be interesting to see how many young people who are still living at home with mom and dad, want to move out, but can’t afford it. They technically aren’t renting/currently own so would this group be captured in any of these surveys? I’m sure there is some pent up rent/buy demand in that group. Everything is such a mess now. It’s gonna take quite a long for all of this to work itself out. At the limits of monetary possibility Posted on May 7, 2024 HOW DOES THIS END? On two occasions in modern times, central banks have found themselves obligated to pour huge amounts of newly-created money into the system. The first instance was the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and the second was the coronavirus pandemic of 2020-21. Neither of these events was anticipated, though the first one certainly should have been. You would have to be very brave indeed to bet against another out-of-the-blue shock forcing central bankers back into flooding the economy with liquidity. In fact, the very structure of the financial system makes a future shock inescapable . Over the past twenty years, and depending on the definitions used, each dollar of growth in the global economy has been accompanied by between $3 and $8 of newly-created financial liabilities. Simply stated, the financial system has been allowed to grow far more rapidly than the underlying economy itself, and this creates a wholly unsustainable set of trends which will lead to a drastic reset of the relationship between the economy and the financial system. This has happened because we’ve been trying to counter, whilst at the same time denying, structural deterioration in the global economy. Driven by the depletion of oil, natural gas and coal resources, the material costs of energy have been rising relentlessly, and, contrary to widespread assurances, renewables cannot provide a new source of abundant low-cost energy to the economy. In essence, we’ve been trying to overcome material economic deceleration with monetary stimulus, a technique that cannot work , but for which no alternative exists. As you may know, we have a limitless capability for the creation of money, but the banking system can’t lend energy or other natural resources into existence, and central banks cannot conjure them out of the ether. Building the next crisis https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/05/07/277-at-the-limits-of-monetary-possibility/ Money is a promise, not a guarantee. “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” Just remember what happened 4 years ago. An economically and socially damaging and budget busting pandemic occurred that was the direct result of a lab leak of a bat virus from a research facility in Wuhan China. T hat virus was modified with a spike protein on a furin cleavage site. Who authorized this dangerous gain of function research that created the virulent SARS-CoV-2 virus? The Donald Trump Administration. In 2017 the Trump Administration ended a moratorium on GoF research that was put in place by the Obama Administration in 2014. [see Natural article]. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08837-7 Remember Trump’s dismissive attitude towards government regulations? The fool removed a regulation that was critical in protecting the public from a a man-made pandemic. And all of Trump’s buddies got big pay days thanks to this disaster. Trump’s first FDA Commissioner left his post in the summer of 2019 just ahead of the lab leak. He was immediately hired by Pfizer. Trump’s second FDA Commissioner was another puppet for Big Pharma. He left in January 2021 and was quickly hired by Moderna. Corruption at it’s finest courtesy of the so-called “Man of the People”. What else happened 4 years ago? Trump gave Ukraine lethal aid. That irresponsible decision sowed the seeds of war. Trump also moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, act that gave the corrupt Netanyahu government a PR win to stave off the collapse of his ruling collation. Had Trump not done such a foolish thing the current genocide possibly would not have occurred. The world is burning, inflation is still lurking, a sovereign debt crisis is beginning to materialize and Trump steered us down this path. Time to realize that MAGA is a scam and Trump is both a fraud and an idiot. I don’t often say this but it needs to be said: Take your illness elsewhere. Trump was so responsible for Ukraine that Biden has been unable to unwind it or broker any peace and instead pushes for more war funding! Pay no attention to the Obama-led coup in 2014 within Ukraine as a possible cause. Trump was so responsible for Covid that every attempt to get unredacted truth out to the public and truthful responses from the government during the pandemic, much of it during the Biden administration, has been met with obfuscation, redaction, and stonewalling despite the government being led by Joseph R Biden for nearly 4 years since. Trump’s moving the embassy to the diplomatic capital of Isarael was so outlandish that Hamas felt compelled to attack on Ocotber 7th 2 years after Trump left office and Biden’s response was to push for billions to send weapons? Goodness gracious! You have a sickness, get help. This post was about housing for God’s sake. I guess do whatever you need to deflect from the economic malaise this post is covering and run cover for the Biden Administration. A 9.7% mortgage rate in three years would solidify the truth, that a 0% FED Funds rate, at some point over the next three years, will fool no one this time around. The FED is trapped. – As is typical of mainstream media articles, the author did not link to the report or the data making it not so easy to spot the error. > Precisely why the MSM, cannot ever be trusted. The lie for manipulation, personal agendas, who’s paying, etc. a Grift is all… – Mortgage Notes: – A record 46.0 percent say it is very difficult to obtain a mortgage. > The Median Household Income is only 55K – A record 74.2 percent say it is somewhat too very difficult to obtain a mortgage > Absolutely No Surprise, as Household Income for 40% alone is only 78% of the Median, and 20% are only at 40%… – A record low 10.1 percent say it is very to somewhat easy to obtain a mortgage. > And 12% have a household income of 112K+ Probability of Renters Buying a Home: – Twenty-five percent of renters have essentially given up on the idea of ever owning a home. > And 20% are only at 40% of the Median Income – The median expectation is a mere 35 percent. > And 40% are only at 78% of the Median Income – The average expectation is 40.1 percent. > And 40% are only at 78% of the Median Income – All of those are record lows. > Welcome to Biden’s America… Case Schiller index is up 47% since Jan. 1 2020. Stock market up about 50%. Not surprising after a $13 trillion financial bailout of the system. For the last 10 years, people have been predicting a crash of the Australian and Canadian housing bubbles, but the prices keep going higher and higher. I guess the lesson is buy now, because today’s prices will seem cheap 10 years from now. While the obscene cost-of-housing is being slowly ingrained into the collective psyche… lost in the discussions everywhere seem to be the ?? number of people who could “afford” to buy/move, but refuse to overpay for a house. Currently getting 5k a month in interest on the money I have saved for a house. I’ll buy if I see something I think is worth the money. Ironically it’s the people who can’t afford a home who are trapped. May not be able to afford a home but they will be able for afford a Tesla as the prices of used Tesla’s plummet towards ZERO Live in a Tesla. Not a bad idea. Cheap housing. Premier parking at the grocery store. Free electricity. A Pontiac Aztec even better I think a lot of people who live near the coasts or gulf coast will be involuntarily moving to higher ground by 2030. If you took away the mortgage and said all houses had to be paid for at the time of sale, housing would become affordable overnight. Housing is going to be a fungible asset for many on the coast. Wife was wanting to buy Heavy Winter Clothing and move to the Equator in the mid-1970s and Freeze to death there! That was after, No More Oil from the Arabs! // Then we were recently gully-washed with “Everyone will own an EV and Electric Everything” by the end of the 2020s. // Now EVs can’t be given away and there are massive storage yards of Chinese EVs with no buyers at Antwerp and other European ports (search online). // I’m grateful to be 77 and soon leaving the every worsening Insanities! The End is indeed near! ❤️ Mark 12:30-31 None of this will be a problem. AI will fix everything everywhere for everybody. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/alarming-map-shows-american-south-sea-levels-rapidly-rising/ss-BB1lRlU3?ocid=weather-verthp-feeds Anywhere between 6 to 8 inches higher than 2010. In addition to high interest rates and lack of houses on the market there is a problem with new construction prices. A LOT of builders won’t guarantee the price of a new construction home. Most construction takes 6 months – 1 year. Pricing on materials can significantly increse during that time. I looked into MULTIPLE states/areas when we were looking to move out of IL. KS was the only place we could find a builder that would guarantee a price. He’s able to offer firm prices as he bought materials/products in bulk. He doesn’t offer any options. We’re going to make a lot of changes in options (i.e. flooring, cabinets, etc.) after we buy the home. The cost of these changes are still a lot cheaper than what we budgeted for when buying a new construction home. This is why the smart folks paid for their meal before the menu prices could change. Don’t worry folks. The “Everything Bubble” is contained just like subprime! Yup, “it’s only transitory”. Stuck. Could be worse I suppose. You could be stuck AND underwater by well over six figures; that was the norm in the last housing market crash. Unless you NEED to move and you own a home, why would you? if your interest rate is 3-5%, there is zero reason to sell even if you have lots of equity. If I were to sell I would also lose my property assessment freeze and have to start over. “Notice that the current extreme is just shy of those observed in August 1929 and January 2022. The current level is about three times the historical norm . We’ve seen this sort of valuation extreme before, but as Jeremy Grantham observed, “you’ve only seen it once or twice.” https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240506/ RULE #1 = “Buy low, SELL High”. This is a MEGA high! Sell high. Rent higher. Rent even higher every few years. New York FED moving expectations at record lows. Is it the same as when a bird of prey plucks feathers from its quarry, and then watches how it struggles to fly? People are realizing that Florida isn’t this great wonderful state so why move there. Yep.Sea levels have risen by 8 inches since 2010. The gulf coast and Atlantic coast has a huge problem on their hands. “ When averaged over all of the world’s oceans, absolute sea level has risen at an average rate of 0.06 inches per year from 1880 to 2013 (see Figure 1). Since 1993, however, average sea level has risen at a rate of 0.12 to 0.14 inches per year—roughly twice as fast as the long-term trend.” https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-level#:~:text=When%20averaged%20over%20all%20of,as%20the%20long%2Dterm%20trend . 0.14 inches per year times 14 years is 1.96 inches, not 8 inches. As it happens the Gulf coast and much of the Atlantic coast are subsiding for geological reasons. That is why much of New Orleans is below sea level. Whatever the reason, it is 6-8 inches since 2010. It will cause a mass migration at the going rate. Don’t you bring mathematics into this! Jesus is in charge of the ocean. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/alarming-map-shows-american-south-sea-levels-rapidly-rising/ss-BB1lRlU3?ocid=weather-verthp-feeds Anywhere between 6 to 8 inches higher than 2010. Luckily for the deniers, their diaper may be used as a flotation device. The only shock would be is if didn’t happen. In ancient times, epic floods that wiped out civilizations all the time. The planet is a changing entity. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/alarming-map-shows-american-south-sea-levels-rapidly-rising/ss-BB1lRlU3?ocid=weather-verthp-feeds Anywhere between 6 to 8 inches higher than 2010. Don’t idiots bring anacondas from South America and Pythons from India and throw them in the Everglades? We had walking-catfish years ago. Haven’t heard much about them in a long time. I do feel trapped. And I would trade my gains to be able to move laterally with prices not in a bubble. “Notice that the current extreme is just shy of those observed in August 1929 and January 2022. The current level is about three times the historical norm . We’ve seen this sort of valuation extreme before, but as Jeremy Grantham observed, “you’ve only seen it once or twice.” https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240506/ &nbsp ; RULE #1 = “Buy low, SELL High”. This is a MEGA high! I wonder what impact this has had on labor mobility. It’s the monkey with his hand in the candy jar. Has a fistful of candy, but can’t let go to remove his hand from the jar. No, I won’t be giving up my 2.8% mortgage for a 7%. I understand 2.8 will likely never happen again but I would move at 5%. I’ll move at any interest rate as long as the 100% to 400% bubble PRICE increases over 3 year’s time gets erased and we deflate back to semi-sane times of 2019 or earlier I might move when long-term CD rates are higher than mortgage rates 😉 You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

Newly declassified documents released Thursday by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard show that a U.S. national laboratory assessed the COVID-19 lab-origin hypothesis as a serious possibility as early as May 2020, as well as evidence of U.S.-funded coronavirus research that included planning for spike-protein modifications, receptor-adaptation experiments, and testing in humanized mice in collaboration with researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The documents also prove that Anthony Fauci lied under oath. Today, on my final day as Director of National Intelligence, I’m releasing never-before-seen communications and documents exposing how Dr. Fauci provided millions in US taxpayer dollars to fund dangerous gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab, worked with politicized elements… pic.twitter.com/ZMdliW4zyS The release, issued on Gabbard’s last day on the job, includes an eight-page May 27, 2020, assessment from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Z Program. That assessment concluded that “ all of the necessary conditions for an accidental release of a laboratory-modified coronavirus - specifically a coronavirus adapted to recognize human cell receptors - were present at the Chinese Wuhan Institute of Virology in mid-to-late 2019 .” It assigned equal weight to a laboratory-modification hypothesis and a natural-origin scenario. Meanwhile, Recall that while the government was locking us down, Dr. Anthony Fauci and those in his orbit were actively fabricating a 'wet market' narrative that would conceal US research as a possible origin - despite his own advisors initially insisting that COVID-19 looked manmade. In his January 2024 transcribed interview, Fauci was asked about conversations concerning the same three topics - COVID origins, WIV, and EcoHealth . When asked about the CIA, he answered yes: he said he was briefed “once or twice” in a secure NIH facility and also recalled a briefing in a White House situation room. The newly released documents then show a June 4, 2021 briefing involving CIA/WCP personnel, NSC officials, and Fauci , during which Fauci offered views on pangolin research, sick WIV researchers, single-lineage vs. multi-lineage evidence, and recommended scientists for the IC to contact. A separate CIA-context email says that same 40-minute secure video teleconfrenece involved CIA/WCPMC officials and that Fauci gave thoughts on the 4 May 2021 COVID-origin briefing and recommended U.S. scientists to consult. So, he lied. According to a statement released with the files, " Fauci worked with politicized career leadership in the Intelligence Community (IC) to suppress the truth about his actions , the virus’ lab-leak origins, and his role in directing U.S. funding for this dangerous research that caused immeasurable harm and countless lost lives. These documents expose Fauci’s direct role in influencing and manipulating IC assessments on COVID-19, and how Fauci lied to Congress in 2024 , when under oath he denied knowledge of or participation in discussions with intelligence officials about viral research." The files include the Year 5 progress report for EcoHealth Alliance’s NIH grant 5R01AI110964-05. Under Specific Aim 3, the project outlined plans to: This research track overlaps with work described in the 2018 DEFUSE proposal , which involved EcoHealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina, and Shi Zhengli’s team at WIV. The proposal sought to create chimeric bat coronaviruses with enhanced human infectivity, including consideration of furin cleavage site insertion to improve lung-cell entry, and to test the resulting viruses in humanized mice originally developed in Baric’s lab. A 2016 WIV paper included in the release describes a synthetic shuttle vector system for assembling large DNA fragments, with demonstrated capability up to 31 kilobases. The authors presented the method as a tool for “genome-scale DNA reconstruction,” a technique relevant to synthetic biology and virus engineering. Surveillance work under the same NIH grant reported that 9 of 1,497 rural residents in southern China (0.6%) were seropositive for bat SARS-related or HKU10 coronaviruses. And from leaked emails three years ago: Among other things, the NIH helped fund experiments at WIV t hat infected genetically engineered mice with “chimeric” hybrids of SARS-related bat coronaviruses in what some scientists have described as unacceptably risky research . ... Andersen laid them out plainly in an email to Fauci that same evening. “ The unusual features of the virus make up a really small part of the genome (<0.1%) so one has to look really closely at all the sequences to see that some of the features (potentially) look engineered, ” Andersen wrote in the email. “I should mention,” he added, “that after discussions earlier today, Eddie, Bob, Mike and myself a ll find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory . But we have to look at this much more closely and there are still further analyses to be done, so those opinions could still change.” - The Intercept A June 8, 2021, internal email in the release references a 2016 New York Academy of Medicine meeting at which Peter Daszak reportedly discussed colleagues in China “manipulating the spike protein on coronavirus to make them more virulent.” Other 2020–2021 emails show officials debating technical concerns, including references to a DOD report on a “suspicious added furin-site” and FBI reporting containing unusual genetic descriptions. One analyst noted the risk that non-experts could misinterpret technical data while still calling for scrutiny. Another observed that “the IC took direction straight from NIH… the people that funded the Wuhan Lab” and referenced “a complex web of money and politics influencing analysis.” July 2021 emails concerning the selection of outside reviewers for COVID-origin assessments show officials rejecting several candidates for political sensitivity or conflict-of-interest reasons: These materials provide primary-source documentation that a U.S. national laboratory assessed a laboratory origin as equally plausible to natural emergence at a time when prominent scientific publications were publicly emphasizing a natural zoonotic source and characterizing alternative hypotheses as conspiracy theories. This includes the February 2020 Lancet letter and the March 2020 Nature Medicine paper “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2”, along with subsequent amplification by NIH leadership. The research details in the declassified grant reports and proposals involved techniques and modifications - spike-protein engineering, receptor adaptation, humanized-mouse testing, and consideration of furin cleavage sites - that later featured prominently in scientific debate over SARS-CoV-2’s characteristics.

• • • Technology stocks are hammered today over AI concerns and a failure of US export bans. China’s DeepSeek AI Models Raise Doubts The Wall Street Journal reports China’s DeepSeek AI Models Raise Doubts Over U.S. Tech Dominance Global chip stocks slumped Monday after Chinese artificial-intelligence company DeepSeek said it had developed AI models that nearly matched American rivals despite using inferior chips, raising questions about the need to spend huge sums on advanced gear provided by Nvidia and other tech giants to train AI models. DeepSeek said last week that the performance of its latest R1 model was on par with OpenAI’s o1-mini model that the ChatGPT maker released in September. The announcement came after DeepSeek said in a late-December report that it used a cluster of more than 2,000 Nvidia chips to train its other V3 model, compared with the tens of thousands of chips that are normally used for training models of a similar size. The company said training one of its latest models cost $5.6 million, compared with the $100 million to $1 billion range cited last year by Dario Amodei, chief executive of AI company Anthropic. “There is a new AI challenger in town and investors are spooked at what they’ve discovered,” AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote in a note to clients. “Its assistant is free to use and runs off lower-cost chips and less data—implying a major challenger to the established AI names in the West.” DeepSeek’s perceived success risks intensifying the AI war between the U.S. and China, Quilter Cheviot’s Ben Barringer said in a note to investors, particularly after the recent announcement of Stargate—a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank Group, Oracle and MGX to build data centers in the U.S. for OpenAI. News Corp, owner of Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, has a content-licensing partnership with OpenAI. Is AI Spending Justified? AI spending is just one of the concerns that Sends U.S. Tech Stocks Reeling. The sudden popularity of a Chinese artificial intelligence model called DeepSeek pummeled stocks Monday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq composite index down 2.7 percent in morning trading. Several tech companies that have banked on a surge of AI interest sold off, with U.S. chipmaker Nvidia down more than 12 percent at the opening bell. Microsoft lost around 3.5 percent, Meta Platforms lost 1.6 percent, and Oracle dropped more than 7 percent. Analysts said the sell-off underscores anxieties about whether the massive spending on artificial intelligence ― and the specialized chips, data centers and related power infrastructure ― are justified. Nvidia has exploded in value in recent years because it dominates the market for the chips at the center of the global AI race. It’s now one of three companies with a market capitalization above $3 trillion. But some analysts have raised questions about how soon those investments will translate into straightforward moneymaking use cases for U.S. companies. The emergence of a low-cost Chinese competitor adds to skepticism over those investments. The emergence of the model from China has escalated concerns about the U.S. adversary’s tech prowess amid a global race to develop advanced artificial intelligence. China’s advancements in the technology are viewed as a national security threat to the United States, and the success of DeepSeek has only exacerbated those concerns. DeepSeek is a China-based start-up that last week launched a free AI assistant that it says can operate at a lower cost than American AI models like ChatGPT. The company was founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, co-founder of the hedge fund High-Flyer. By Monday, it had rocketed to the top of downloads in the Apple Store.It also reported outages and limited registrations due to “large-scale malicious attacks” amid the uptick in interest. President Donald Trump has said that the United States needs to remain competitive with China in developing artificial intelligence, and he appeared focused on the technology during his first week in office. He told reporters Saturday that he was considering using emergency powers to provide the “tremendous energy” that U.S. companies need to develop AI models. We’re already leading,” Trump said on Air Force One. “Very shortly, we’re going to be leading by a lot.” Longtime technology investor Marc Andreessen, a Trump ally , called DeepSeek’s AI model “one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I’ve ever seen” and “a profound gift to the world” in a post on X . Leading tech firms have spent billions building out artificial intelligence technology for sale to large businesses. Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said in a Facebook post last week that his company plans to invest between $60 billion and $65 billion on AI and build a massive data center. OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank recently announced a Trump-supported joint venture, called Stargate, that seeks to spend up to $500 billion building out data centers to support AI projects. China’s DeepSeek Turns AI on its Head Sherwood reports China’s DeepSeek turns AI on its Head DeepTrouble The weekend buzz around the large language model — the fact that it “thinks” before it speaks, shows its workings, and matches OpenAI’s most powerful model, the o1, on a range of metrics — seems to have left much of Silicon Valley wowed and worried, in almost equal measure. Per DeepSeek’s own figures , the R1 model outperforms the OpenAI o1 on a variety of key tests, shining particularly brightly in math, where it beats the latest model from Sam Altman’s company on three different tests. While it’s less consistent on coding and language tests — it fared particularly badly on the “SimpleQA” (not shown in chart above), a test evaluating the simple factual accuracy of the info that LLMs spit out — the differences are fairly slim, making the cost-effective R1 look impressive. The Chinese company’s slimmed-down training costs, use of cheaper chips, API, and open-source model have hauled the endless drive for more chips and compute that’s driven much of the market for the last 18 months into question. Meta is planning to spend more than $60 billion on capital expenditures just this year. At a time when people are wondering if we can trust TikTok due to Chinese government ties, many have similar questions about DeepSeek. Tech evangelist Marc Andreessen was among those singing R1’s praises over the last few days — though he may not have asked it about Tiananmen Square yet. Another Sanction Failure Biden placed numerous exports bans on chip technology to prevent this from happening. Instead DeepSeek said in a late-December report that it used a cluster of more than 2,000 Nvidia chips to train its AI. No one should be surprised by this. To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail On September 26, 2024, I commented To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail Let’s discuss a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will. Robin Brooks on X : “When someone tells you that sanctions can’t and won’t work, that’s basically pro-Russian propaganda. Are we seriously to believe that nothing can be done to stop the shameful flood of transshipments to Russia via Central Asia? Come on. This is just about a lack of political will. “ I am pretty sure that “someone” is me because we have gone round and round on this. When someone tells you that sanctions do work. Ask them for evidence. The above post was on oil-related sanctions. The next article is how and why chip sanctions failed. On August 26, 2024, I commented China Gains Secret Access to Nvdia Microchips by Renting Computers The US has blocked export of Nvdia chips to China. But where there’s profit, there’s a way. Know Your Customer’s Customer’s Customer China sets up an AI company in Singapore. AI developers buy cloud time through a subsidiary that further masks the operation by paying in Bitcoin. In turn, the subsidiary buys time from a company Dubai or Singapore that hosts the servers. US politicians are outraged. But some of us are amused knowing full well that sanctions don’t work. So instead of cloud profits going to US corporations, the profits go to Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Dubai, and South Korea. Only Amazon is forced to “know your customer”. Where Art Thou EU? Trump secured pledges to spend $500 billion on data centers. However, If the benchmarks are accurate, China caught up on AI development by renting NVDIA chips. Meanwhile, the EU is doing nothing but attempting to regulate AI to death. For discussion, please see The EU Will Suffer Because it Is Hostile Territory for the AI industry China’s DeepSeek AI Models Raise Doubts The Wall Street Journal reports China’s DeepSeek AI Models Raise Doubts Over U.S. Tech Dominance Global chip stocks slumped Monday after Chinese artificial-intelligence company DeepSeek said it had developed AI models that nearly matched American rivals despite using inferior chips, raising questions about the need to spend huge sums on advanced gear provided by Nvidia and other tech giants to train AI models. DeepSeek said last week that the performance of its latest R1 model was on par with OpenAI’s o1-mini model that the ChatGPT maker released in September. The announcement came after DeepSeek said in a late-December report that it used a cluster of more than 2,000 Nvidia chips to train its other V3 model, compared with the tens of thousands of chips that are normally used for training models of a similar size. The company said training one of its latest models cost $5.6 million, compared with the $100 million to $1 billion range cited last year by Dario Amodei, chief executive of AI company Anthropic. “There is a new AI challenger in town and investors are spooked at what they’ve discovered,” AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote in a note to clients. “Its assistant is free to use and runs off lower-cost chips and less data—implying a major challenger to the established AI names in the West.” DeepSeek’s perceived success risks intensifying the AI war between the U.S. and China, Quilter Cheviot’s Ben Barringer said in a note to investors, particularly after the recent announcement of Stargate—a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank Group, Oracle and MGX to build data centers in the U.S. for OpenAI. News Corp, owner of Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, has a content-licensing partnership with OpenAI. Is AI Spending Justified? AI spending is just one of the concerns that Sends U.S. Tech Stocks Reeling. The sudden popularity of a Chinese artificial intelligence model called DeepSeek pummeled stocks Monday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq composite index down 2.7 percent in morning trading. Several tech companies that have banked on a surge of AI interest sold off, with U.S. chipmaker Nvidia down more than 12 percent at the opening bell. Microsoft lost around 3.5 percent, Meta Platforms lost 1.6 percent, and Oracle dropped more than 7 percent. Analysts said the sell-off underscores anxieties about whether the massive spending on artificial intelligence ― and the specialized chips, data centers and related power infrastructure ― are justified. Nvidia has exploded in value in recent years because it dominates the market for the chips at the center of the global AI race. It’s now one of three companies with a market capitalization above $3 trillion. But some analysts have raised questions about how soon those investments will translate into straightforward moneymaking use cases for U.S. companies. The emergence of a low-cost Chinese competitor adds to skepticism over those investments. The emergence of the model from China has escalated concerns about the U.S. adversary’s tech prowess amid a global race to develop advanced artificial intelligence. China’s advancements in the technology are viewed as a national security threat to the United States, and the success of DeepSeek has only exacerbated those concerns. DeepSeek is a China-based start-up that last week launched a free AI assistant that it says can operate at a lower cost than American AI models like ChatGPT. The company was founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, co-founder of the hedge fund High-Flyer. By Monday, it had rocketed to the top of downloads in the Apple Store.It also reported outages and limited registrations due to “large-scale malicious attacks” amid the uptick in interest. President Donald Trump has said that the United States needs to remain competitive with China in developing artificial intelligence, and he appeared focused on the technology during his first week in office. He told reporters Saturday that he was considering using emergency powers to provide the “tremendous energy” that U.S. companies need to develop AI models. We’re already leading,” Trump said on Air Force One. “Very shortly, we’re going to be leading by a lot.” Longtime technology investor Marc Andreessen, a Trump ally , called DeepSeek’s AI model “one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I’ve ever seen” and “a profound gift to the world” in a post on X . Leading tech firms have spent billions building out artificial intelligence technology for sale to large businesses. Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said in a Facebook post last week that his company plans to invest between $60 billion and $65 billion on AI and build a massive data center. OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank recently announced a Trump-supported joint venture, called Stargate, that seeks to spend up to $500 billion building out data centers to support AI projects. China’s DeepSeek Turns AI on its Head Sherwood reports China’s DeepSeek turns AI on its Head DeepTrouble The weekend buzz around the large language model — the fact that it “thinks” before it speaks, shows its workings, and matches OpenAI’s most powerful model, the o1, on a range of metrics — seems to have left much of Silicon Valley wowed and worried, in almost equal measure. Per DeepSeek’s own figures , the R1 model outperforms the OpenAI o1 on a variety of key tests, shining particularly brightly in math, where it beats the latest model from Sam Altman’s company on three different tests. While it’s less consistent on coding and language tests — it fared particularly badly on the “SimpleQA” (not shown in chart above), a test evaluating the simple factual accuracy of the info that LLMs spit out — the differences are fairly slim, making the cost-effective R1 look impressive. The Chinese company’s slimmed-down training costs, use of cheaper chips, API, and open-source model have hauled the endless drive for more chips and compute that’s driven much of the market for the last 18 months into question. Meta is planning to spend more than $60 billion on capital expenditures just this year. At a time when people are wondering if we can trust TikTok due to Chinese government ties, many have similar questions about DeepSeek. Tech evangelist Marc Andreessen was among those singing R1’s praises over the last few days — though he may not have asked it about Tiananmen Square yet. Another Sanction Failure Biden placed numerous exports bans on chip technology to prevent this from happening. Instead DeepSeek said in a late-December report that it used a cluster of more than 2,000 Nvidia chips to train its AI. No one should be surprised by this. To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail On September 26, 2024, I commented To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail Let’s discuss a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will. Robin Brooks on X : “When someone tells you that sanctions can’t and won’t work, that’s basically pro-Russian propaganda. Are we seriously to believe that nothing can be done to stop the shameful flood of transshipments to Russia via Central Asia? Come on. This is just about a lack of political will. “ I am pretty sure that “someone” is me because we have gone round and round on this. When someone tells you that sanctions do work. Ask them for evidence. The above post was on oil-related sanctions. The next article is how and why chip sanctions failed. On August 26, 2024, I commented China Gains Secret Access to Nvdia Microchips by Renting Computers The US has blocked export of Nvdia chips to China. But where there’s profit, there’s a way. Know Your Customer’s Customer’s Customer China sets up an AI company in Singapore. AI developers buy cloud time through a subsidiary that further masks the operation by paying in Bitcoin. In turn, the subsidiary buys time from a company Dubai or Singapore that hosts the servers. US politicians are outraged. But some of us are amused knowing full well that sanctions don’t work. So instead of cloud profits going to US corporations, the profits go to Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Dubai, and South Korea. Only Amazon is forced to “know your customer”. Where Art Thou EU? Trump secured pledges to spend $500 billion on data centers. However, If the benchmarks are accurate, China caught up on AI development by renting NVDIA chips. Meanwhile, the EU is doing nothing but attempting to regulate AI to death. For discussion, please see The EU Will Suffer Because it Is Hostile Territory for the AI industry Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. The Chinese product is supposedly rife with hallucinations. so exactly the same as chat- gpt Clearly, DeepSeek does not have any DEI hires on the staff. never miss a change to blame black folks for all the worlds problems AI is a tough sell because all of it’s users are brainless. Deep Seek can’t discuss Tiananmen Square or the killing of all those sparrows by the CCP that caused millions to die. Things will shake out. There is lots of room in AI for everyone to censor what they need to censor. most business that are investing in AI arent doing so because they want to build bots that talk about politics. the trillion dollar wall street investment is with the hope that they can create business applications that can lead to cost cutting. deepseek works just as well and siginfigantly cheaper and open source… undercutting investers wild dreams Oh thank God. Value investing is back A big aspect of this AI situation is Altman changing the now misnamed openAI to closed source private operation killing innovation. These “tech titans” should know better but nothing like short term greed interfering with long term what’s best for the US. What a massive squandering of resources. Lina Khan and Elon Musk were correct, let’s give them the credit they deserve. DeepSeek trade secret REVEALED: All queries are actually referred directly to classrooms of Chinese 4th graders who provide the needed info in real time. This technology is so vastly superior that all other AI attempts are doomed from the start. Lol. Command economy at its best. What better use for 1 billion 4th graders? The AI bubble was going to pop sooner than later. My significant other has tried several AI tools for writing. One highly rated tool gave the same character 3 different names within 10 pages. Another used the same descriptions frequently. She is attempting to feed one AI tool’s output into another. She finds there is little time savings since more is now used for distilling good ideas from mundane, as well as increased time editing in general. Same issue with AI coding On a lighter note we find out that the Covid did start in the chinese lab with grants from the US and Fauci. They were trying to treat chinese bats . Anyone who spoke out on the social media about these things were locked out for spewing misinformation marginalized and ridiculed . Millions of lifes lost many millions suffered extreme sickness from covid or from the vaccine affects . You wonder why it took 4 years to get the truth out . To think we are worried about a few thousand illegal invaders being rounded up and flown out to where they came from . Go figure . And Fauci got a pardon. Disgraceful So did 1600 of my favorite violent morons! Pardons for all! Ratcliffe confirms what everyone else has known for 5 years — The Covid virus came from Wuhan lab where they were conducting gain of function research on bat viruses while searching for a SARS Vaccine. https://x.com/ More to come… Not my post, but relevant and I thought a good summary: First we have the grant applications from the NIH to EcoHealth Alliance and Dr. Peter Daszak for Gain of Function research on SARS COV1 in 2014 that continued all the way up through 2019. The sub award was to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Specifically this grant was for conducting research to determine the spillover propensity to humanized mice (i.e. humans) using the SARS COV 1 backbone. Specifically, they cut the spikes off the original SARS COV1 virus and swapped it with a spike that was more capable of infecting humans. This is exactly the definition of gain of function research that the Obama administration put a moratorium on. Here is the link to the NIH grant application if anyone doubts ( https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8674931 ) Second, we know through our own intelligence agencies that researchers at the WIOV were infected as early as November 2019. Here is the link to a CBS news article covering this (www.nbcnews.com/…) Third, the spike protein on SARS COV2 was a commonly known spike protein (ACE2) that was used in GoF research because of its likelihood to bind to ACE2 receptors in the lungs. The grant application clearly spells this out. Additionally, the genetic sequencing between SARS1 and SARS2 is so similar that we would have seen clusters of infections near known bat habitats if it were a natural event, rather than it conveniently popping up in and around the WIOV without any other recorded infections.. Fourth, the actions of the NIH are very telling. In May of 2020, Dr. Fauci publicly stated that the evidence “was very very strong” supporting a natural zoonotic spillover event, even though the NIH can’t produce a shred of evidence to support this claim. A good scientist evaluates all evidence before making a conclusion and putting their reputation on the line. I find it extremely odd that the NIH and Fauci would issue a definitive statement as such, without having a wealth of evidence to support it. The CIA’s own analysis, that was conducted under the Biden administration, claims that it most likely came from the WIV. Here is a link to the New York Times if you don’t believe me (www.nytimes.com/…) Sorry, I believe nothing coming from the NY times they have been exposed as habitual liers . They are nothing but a liberal government mouth piece . They lied about Hunters Laptop , Russia collusion , covid to name a few . NY times and W Post are nothing more than a propaganda arm of the US government . The only thing truth that ever leaks out of the NYT or WaPo is when they accidentally make an admission against interest usually around the 19th paragraph . Will Trump ban DeepSeek for “national security reasons? They compete with my stuff. You bet he will. Thanks for confirming Mr. President. its open source. it runs locally. There is not way to “ban” it We had a choice: harness the talents of millions of brilliant, educated Chinese for profit, or tariff the hell out of everyone and fall into obscurity. We chose wrong out of egoism and ignorance. Idiotic post. China tariffs us more than them on most items. But faux outrage is my fave. All goods imported into China are subject to the nation’s value-added tax (VAT) of either 13 percent or 17 percent. The 13 percent tax is available for certain goods that fall mainly within the categories of agricultural and utility items, while the 17 percent tax applies to other goods subject to the VAT tax. If it is a VAT it also applies to Chinese domestic goods. USA has sales taxes in many states. Only an army of H1Bs can save us! Americans are too dumb. (double post) Maybe NVDA isn’t really worth 30 times sales. LOL… And also: Because Trump wants to use military—not civilian—flights to transport deportees, “American taxpayers are paying 300% more for Trump’s immigration plan than they should. “ The important part isn’t deporting immigrants. It’s putting on a popular show for the rednecks. The chains were my idea! Those military planes would be doing touch and go practice if they did not deport illegal aliens. Something that’s getting lost in yesterday’s was-it-or-wasn’t-it US-Colombia trade war: “Colombia accepted 475 deportation flights from the US from 2020 to 2024. “ Trump won this one. He was ahead of the MSM the whole time and the story is over. Normally, I scrutinize “stories” like Colombia refusing the planes because there’s always more to the story. It’s a moot point to rebut Trump because, as I said, Trump won this one. The planes didn’t land. The stinky guy failed. That’s what I keep him around for. Hope you have a little more cash for coffee. I know you can’t afford eggs now. Depending on how good DeepSeek turns out to be, this could be our generations ‘Sputnik’ moment where we suddenly realize that that we do not have anywhere near the tech lead we think we do. Whether that spurs an equivalent prioritizing of research equivalent to what happened in the space race remains to be seen. Sputnik led to a huge increase in funding for primary and technical education. I’d love to see that happen again but I don’t think we’re interested anymore. Sanctions and tariffs work. Look at the price of the rouble and yuan since they were announced. The goal of tariffs was to increase export – It failed The goal of sanctions was to stop exports – failed everywhere We just need more sanctions to reach the Golden Age! I thought the goal of tariffs was to force deadbeat Marxist countries to take back their criminal aliens here in the US? The goal of sanctions and tariffs is to reduce the advantages of low cost (i.e. low wage) nations from eroding the wages in the issuer nation. Most studies focus and GDP, or sales, as a measure of success. What you need to look at the pace of reduction of discretionary income for the average worker post tariffs and the time it gives the issuer nation to rebalance the economy. Low tariffs always benefits the rich people as they always benefit from labor arbitrage. Tariffs gives local substitutes a better chance and gives you time to adjust. You need to look at the bigger picture over the longer term for the median consumer, not the rich equity holder… China is doing amazing things in biotech, too. In some cases, they are ahead of US efforts and US pharmas are now in-licensing their stuff. Scientists from China come to the US where they provide cheap labor to academic labs, and then return to China with the know-how. Much easier to test experimental therapeutics there, and so they are in the lead in some areas. What to do? John Thune recently lamented our diminished number of Navy ships. I think he’s trapped in the ’90’s. Or listens to Hugh Hewitt – also trapped in the ’90’s. I have read that China is investing heavily in photonic chips, so they’re probably not worried about catching NVIDA et al with regards to traditional semiconductor chips. They’re trying to get to next level ASAP. So are we, of course, and everyone should expect Chinese companies will periodically make these announcements that remind us that they got tech mojo. And they avoid the woke mind virus. China knows how detrimental wokeness can be to a country, which is why they directly support it here in the US. They call it baizuo and laugh at us for it. Photonic chips execute algorithms, like silicon ones. So that has more to do with TSMC and Intel than Nvidia. Photonic chips are what’s coming after semiconductor technology. I would imagine China, like America, is trying to incorporate photonic chips with quantum computing. That would be the Holy Grail. I don’t think the NVDA bubble has popped. This is just a temporary correction. I think the whole AI bubble has a ways to go. Hundreds of billions more need to be spent and wasted before it has played itself out and pops. Another Y2K dot.bomb collape? What companies are peddling today is not AI. It’s a very good parlor trick, based on statistics. Geoffrey Hinton, AI pioneer, once said that the approach we’re using today will not achieve AGI, though I can’t find that quote anymore. Necessity, the mother of AI invention…and this is open source! Hmm, a financial guy I know says the Chinese lie about everything and thinks China is just focusing on “low end” AI. Could be true, or could be yet another “Exceptional American” whistling past the graveyard? I don’t know, but the story and post is fascinating. Thanks, Mish. China’s AI is 3 kids in a raincoat. If not China, there will be other competitors. Ten dedicated software developers could build a system that beats current techniques by 10x, and it will happen over the coming years. Last time I checked, the cost of supporting 10 exceptional software developers and a high powered building of compute servers is well below $500 billion. There are politicians to be bribed out of that… the smarter ones are expensive. I saw a quote on CNBC on this today, “I’d have to be crazy to have my developers keep paying ChatGPT when Deepseek is cheaper.” It’s amazing what you can do with enough cheap quasi-slave labor aint it? NVIDIA has lost $500 billion in market cap today. 600 at one point. Let the bubble burst My SPY puts are up 24% today but still underwater. I have until Jun 30 to cash out though…..wait till Feb 1 tariff mania starts and watch it fly! Bloated market. Antagonistic Fed moving forward. A long way down. All asset prices are absurd. An eccentric chemistry professor in upstate NY has said the market is overvalued by 3x for the past 2 years. Nothing to do with Trump and Tariffs. Greenspam turned the whole thing into a Greater Fool Ponzi. Powell is gone in June 2026. I’ll put someone in there that will get rates back to 0… maybe even let the stinky guy send out some personally signed checks. It makes him feel like he’s in charge. This is why H1Bs are the path to American Greatness, just like the old days. There is a great discussion on H1Bs between Lex Fridman and Andreesson on Fridman’s youtube channel. Andreesson is in the club. I’m sure he comported himself properly. It’s been in a massive speculation bubble for many years now over AI. Now a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. I presume you are readying your put options on NVidia. I mentioned NVidia was going to crash last evening in one of Mish’s threads because of this (even posted a link). I had the misses sell her stake plus her Oracle stock late last night even though she didn’t want to because I knew it was going to be a bloodbath. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • Normal trade math does not add up. US imports and China exports are not in sync. China’s Bermuda Triangle UBS comments on China’s Bermuda Triangle ( Download ) When looking at Sino-US trade, the value of China’s exports to the US should be less than the value of US imports from China. This is true for any bilateral trade relationship. Export numbers record the value of the goods exported when sitting on a ship about to leave a country. Import numbers record the value of goods when they arrive in a country. In between the two is the cost of transporting and insuring those goods, so the import values will automatically be higher than the export values. Critically, import values do not include any trade taxes—those are paid by domestic consumers after the goods have arrived . If we look at China’s exports to Europe, or US exports to China, this is exactly what we find. The value of exports and imports move in sync, with the value of imports somewhat higher than the value of exports. This used to be true for China’s exports to the United States. But in recent years, China’s customs data has shown China to be exporting more than the US is importing. The shift is not small—China claims to export almost 19% more than the US claims to be importing. Even that large gap understates the problem—China’s export values should be about 15% lower than US import values, given transport costs. Therefore, this change in the data either overstates China’s exports or understates US imports by over 30%. Unless 30% of ships are disappearing in some kind of midPacific equivalent of the Bermuda triangle, this suggests mismeasurement of the data. This anomaly is something that only happens with China’s exports to the US (not with US exports to China, or China’s trade with other countries). It also does not apply evenly across all sectors— furniture, machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, and plastics are areas where significant anomalies take place. Tariffs do not directly affect the values measured by the data, because US consumers pay trade taxes on the value of imported goods (i.e., after the import data cited here has been calculated). However, rerouting supply chains in response to this might have led to this anomaly. Goods from China that are routed via Vietnam or Mexico (for example) may be classed as exports to the US by China, but as imports from Vietnam or Mexico by the US. Apparent Supply Rerouting When considering the impact of the Trump trade taxes, it is the US data that should be used. Tariffs will be paid by US consumers and calculated off US import data, so what matters is not what China thinks it is exporting to the US but what the US thinks it is importing from China. If the US believes the goods come from somewhere else, they will not be impacted by China-specific tariffs. The above paragraph strikes me as wrong. But it depends on whether you want to measure tariffs collected or Trump’s effort to collect them. I asked Brad Setser, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Director of International Economics, for the United States Department of the Treasury to comment. Brad Setser Comments Chinese exports started exceeding US imports only in those categories with tariffs, and only after the tariffs were imposed — which provides the basic answer. We know the US isn’t counting 1 billion small value (de minimis) packages in the trade data, and that alone is at least $60b in missing US imports that appear in the Chinese trade data. There are other sorts of tariff avoidance/ circumvention as well. So right now the Chinese export data is better guide to US China trade than the US import data — which is why I now emphasize the $500b or so China reports in exports to US rather than the $400b or so the US reports in imports This appears to be an amusing case of China cleverly avoiding US tariffs but not clever enough to hide it better. US Trade Deficit US balance of trade, chart by Mish. The above chart shows the US trade deficit with China improved but at the expense of increased deficit elsewhere. It’s now unclear if the deficit with China really improved at all. In practice the deficit might really be $100 billion larger than I show. Whereas Setser says use China export data, UBS says use US data. It depends on what your angle is. Do you want an accurate estimate of imports from China, or do you want tariff collection numbers that match incorrect US import measurements? Who Pays Tariffs? Trump says China pays the tariff. That’s ridiculous. To the extent tariffs are collected at all (not avoided by rerouting through Vietnam or Mexico etc.), US consumers or importers pay the tariffs. Tariffs are a tax. The combined impact of rerouting trade, strengthening of the dollar, and the genuine buying of goods from countries other than China negated much of the damage of the tariffs. Tariff Policy The Congressional Research Service comments on U.S. Tariff Policy . Who Makes U.S. Tariff Policy? The Constitution grants Congress the power to lay and collect duties and to regulate commerce with foreign nations. Because tariffs are no longer a major element of domestic tax policy, they have instead become an instrument of U.S. foreign policy and trade promotion. As such, Congress often works with the President to set tariff policy by authorizing the President to negotiate trade agreements and to adjust tariffs in certain circumstances. What Has U.S. Tariff Policy Been? Over the past 70 years, tariffs have never accounted for much more than 2% of total federal revenue. In FY2024, for example, CBP collected $77 billion in tariffs, accounting for approximately 1.57% of total federal revenue . Instead, the United States has generally used its tariff policy to encourage global trade liberalization and pursue broader foreign policy goals. Since 1934, the United States has reduced or eliminated many tariffs as part of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. By supporting the creation of the GATT and the WTO, the United States Congress sought to reduce tariff rates globally within a rules-based trading system. Roughly 70% of all products enter the United States duty free. Issues for Congress For more than 80 years, Congress has delegated extensive tariff-setting authority to the President, who was more insulated from domestic protectionist pressures than individual Members of Congress. This delegation led to an overall decline in global tariff rates. However, it has meant that the U.S. pursuit of a low-tariff, rules-based global trading system has been the product of executive discretion. While Congress has set negotiating goals, it has relied on Presidential leadership to achieve those goals. The Trump Administration was openly critical of low-tariff policies and made extensive use of authorities delegated to the President to increase tariffs on certain goods. As a result, duties paid on U.S. imports doubled from FY2015 to FY2020 from approximately $37 billion to $74 billion. The Biden Administration has maintained many of those policies with CBP collecting $77 billion in FY2024. Some Members have supported the increased use of tariffs; however, others have expressed concern about the economic impact of increasing tariffs. Some Members and committees have also expressed concerns about the President raising tariffs without congressional approval. Related Posts September 26, 2024: Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check. Trump proposes 60 percent tariffs on China. Would that reduce the trade deficit? Where? How? If Trump imposed 60 percent tariffs on China, I believe all trade with China would cease. The US would not collect a cent on those tariffs. That’s the good side actually because would be US consumers who paid the tax. November 22, 2024: Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Are a Tax on Consumers, Primarily the Poor For the poorest fifth of Americans, who will have incomes of less than $29,000 in 2026, the tariffs will impose a tax increase equal to 5.7 percent of their income that year. November 25, 2024: Trump Threatens 25 Percent Tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Day One Trump says he will unilaterally scrap his own allegedly “Best in History” USMCA trade deal and impose huge tariff hikes on our top two trading partners. Is this constitutional? Either this is a Bluff, or Trump is a fool. It could be both. But Trump would have to break his own “Best Deal in History” to do what he says. The deal renews in June of 2026. I believe Trump will wait until then to do anything drastic, if even then. There would be serious ramifications to break a trade deal that Trump himself negotiated. No one could possibly believe any deal he negotiated. How Much Revenue Can Trump Realistically Bring in From Tariffs? Given that Trump, AKA Tariff Man, is going to hike tariffs, the key question is How Much Revenue Can Trump Realistically Bring in From Tariffs? There are many moving parts to this question including Congress, retaliations, and consumer impacts. The Tax foundation provides an estimate. Mine is lower because Trump is not going to unilaterally break USMCA. Click on the above link for details. China’s Bermuda Triangle UBS comments on China’s Bermuda Triangle ( Download ) When looking at Sino-US trade, the value of China’s exports to the US should be less than the value of US imports from China. This is true for any bilateral trade relationship. Export numbers record the value of the goods exported when sitting on a ship about to leave a country. Import numbers record the value of goods when they arrive in a country. In between the two is the cost of transporting and insuring those goods, so the import values will automatically be higher than the export values. Critically, import values do not include any trade taxes—those are paid by domestic consumers after the goods have arrived . If we look at China’s exports to Europe, or US exports to China, this is exactly what we find. The value of exports and imports move in sync, with the value of imports somewhat higher than the value of exports. This used to be true for China’s exports to the United States. But in recent years, China’s customs data has shown China to be exporting more than the US is importing. The shift is not small—China claims to export almost 19% more than the US claims to be importing. Even that large gap understates the problem—China’s export values should be about 15% lower than US import values, given transport costs. Therefore, this change in the data either overstates China’s exports or understates US imports by over 30%. Unless 30% of ships are disappearing in some kind of midPacific equivalent of the Bermuda triangle, this suggests mismeasurement of the data. This anomaly is something that only happens with China’s exports to the US (not with US exports to China, or China’s trade with other countries). It also does not apply evenly across all sectors— furniture, machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, and plastics are areas where significant anomalies take place. Tariffs do not directly affect the values measured by the data, because US consumers pay trade taxes on the value of imported goods (i.e., after the import data cited here has been calculated). However, rerouting supply chains in response to this might have led to this anomaly. Goods from China that are routed via Vietnam or Mexico (for example) may be classed as exports to the US by China, but as imports from Vietnam or Mexico by the US. Apparent Supply Rerouting When considering the impact of the Trump trade taxes, it is the US data that should be used. Tariffs will be paid by US consumers and calculated off US import data, so what matters is not what China thinks it is exporting to the US but what the US thinks it is importing from China. If the US believes the goods come from somewhere else, they will not be impacted by China-specific tariffs. The above paragraph strikes me as wrong. But it depends on whether you want to measure tariffs collected or Trump’s effort to collect them. I asked Brad Setser, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Director of International Economics, for the United States Department of the Treasury to comment. Brad Setser Comments This appears to be an amusing case of China cleverly avoiding US tariffs but not clever enough to hide it better. US Trade Deficit The above chart shows the US trade deficit with China improved but at the expense of increased deficit elsewhere. It’s now unclear if the deficit with China really improved at all. In practice the deficit might really be $100 billion larger than I show. Whereas Setser says use China export data, UBS says use US data. It depends on what your angle is. Do you want an accurate estimate of imports from China, or do you want tariff collection numbers that match incorrect US import measurements? Who Pays Tariffs? Trump says China pays the tariff. That’s ridiculous. To the extent tariffs are collected at all (not avoided by rerouting through Vietnam or Mexico etc.), US consumers or importers pay the tariffs. Tariffs are a tax. The combined impact of rerouting trade, strengthening of the dollar, and the genuine buying of goods from countries other than China negated much of the damage of the tariffs. Tariff Policy The Congressional Research Service comments on U.S. Tariff Policy . Who Makes U.S. Tariff Policy? The Constitution grants Congress the power to lay and collect duties and to regulate commerce with foreign nations. Because tariffs are no longer a major element of domestic tax policy, they have instead become an instrument of U.S. foreign policy and trade promotion. As such, Congress often works with the President to set tariff policy by authorizing the President to negotiate trade agreements and to adjust tariffs in certain circumstances. What Has U.S. Tariff Policy Been? Over the past 70 years, tariffs have never accounted for much more than 2% of total federal revenue. In FY2024, for example, CBP collected $77 billion in tariffs, accounting for approximately 1.57% of total federal revenue . Instead, the United States has generally used its tariff policy to encourage global trade liberalization and pursue broader foreign policy goals. Since 1934, the United States has reduced or eliminated many tariffs as part of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. By supporting the creation of the GATT and the WTO, the United States Congress sought to reduce tariff rates globally within a rules-based trading system. Roughly 70% of all products enter the United States duty free. Issues for Congress For more than 80 years, Congress has delegated extensive tariff-setting authority to the President, who was more insulated from domestic protectionist pressures than individual Members of Congress. This delegation led to an overall decline in global tariff rates. However, it has meant that the U.S. pursuit of a low-tariff, rules-based global trading system has been the product of executive discretion. While Congress has set negotiating goals, it has relied on Presidential leadership to achieve those goals. The Trump Administration was openly critical of low-tariff policies and made extensive use of authorities delegated to the President to increase tariffs on certain goods. As a result, duties paid on U.S. imports doubled from FY2015 to FY2020 from approximately $37 billion to $74 billion. The Biden Administration has maintained many of those policies with CBP collecting $77 billion in FY2024. Some Members have supported the increased use of tariffs; however, others have expressed concern about the economic impact of increasing tariffs. Some Members and committees have also expressed concerns about the President raising tariffs without congressional approval. Related Posts September 26, 2024: Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check. Trump proposes 60 percent tariffs on China. Would that reduce the trade deficit? Where? How? If Trump imposed 60 percent tariffs on China, I believe all trade with China would cease. The US would not collect a cent on those tariffs. That’s the good side actually because would be US consumers who paid the tax. November 22, 2024: Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Are a Tax on Consumers, Primarily the Poor For the poorest fifth of Americans, who will have incomes of less than $29,000 in 2026, the tariffs will impose a tax increase equal to 5.7 percent of their income that year. November 25, 2024: Trump Threatens 25 Percent Tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Day One Trump says he will unilaterally scrap his own allegedly “Best in History” USMCA trade deal and impose huge tariff hikes on our top two trading partners. Is this constitutional? Either this is a Bluff, or Trump is a fool. It could be both. But Trump would have to break his own “Best Deal in History” to do what he says. The deal renews in June of 2026. I believe Trump will wait until then to do anything drastic, if even then. There would be serious ramifications to break a trade deal that Trump himself negotiated. No one could possibly believe any deal he negotiated. How Much Revenue Can Trump Realistically Bring in From Tariffs? Given that Trump, AKA Tariff Man, is going to hike tariffs, the key question is How Much Revenue Can Trump Realistically Bring in From Tariffs? There are many moving parts to this question including Congress, retaliations, and consumer impacts. The Tax foundation provides an estimate. Mine is lower because Trump is not going to unilaterally break USMCA. Click on the above link for details. Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. Funny how it all started just before the CCPandemic hoax. I am looking forward to what Trump will do on energy. Trump has vowed to declare a national energy emergency as soon as he takes office Monday, months after promising voters that he would cut their electric and gasoline prices in half in the first year of his administration . “To achieve this rapid reduction in energy costs, I will declare a national emergency to allow us to dramatically increase energy production, generation and supply,” Trump said in Potterville, Michigan last August. “Starting on day one, I will approve new drilling, new pipelines, new refineries, new power plants, new reactors and we will slash the red tape.” The president-elect reiterated as recently as Dec. 22 his intention to declare a national emergency on energy on the first day of his administration. He vowed to issue a series of executive orders to reverse Biden administration policies on natural gas exports, drilling and emissions standards. Trump plans to establish a National Energy Council led by North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, his pick to lead the Department of the Interior. Burgum said during a Senate hearing on his nomination this week that he expects the council to be established through an executive order. I encourage everyone to write down, if you can, the price you pay for gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas and electricity tomorrow. Repeat this every month this year to follow Trump’s progress. It should be an interesting exercise. I wonder if he will put tariffs on imported energy right away? That might raise prices in the short term. Given that sanctions against Russia in sping 2022 triggered global GDP decline and seizing up of world trade, you might want to look eastwards for the answers. Energy costs due to sanctions against Russia for America’s illegal proxy war in The Ukraine, have put pressure on developing countries all over the place, and European and EU countries too, contributing the the DXY spike and the strength of the USD against other currencies. The ending of hostilities with Russia and futile attempts to reboot global trade whilst China is imploding might have more leverage on oil prices. Prices decline as trade does, as demand does, as global deflation spreads. Axioms (contra Trump ‘thinking’) Wouldn’t the impact depend on demand elasticity for the specific good being tariffed? If Chinese-made product can be obtained elsewhere at a comparable price, then the Chinese producer will need to lower its price, right? If we are understating imports doesn’t that imply we are also overstating gdp? You are only talking about a few tenths of a percent, but its not nothing. “ This appears to be an amusing case of China cleverly avoiding US tariffs but not clever enough to hide it better.” You use the term “China” to make it sound as if everyone (government, manufacturers, workers, etc.) in China acts in concert just like an ant colony or beehive. It could be that manufacturers and other exporters are declaring the cargo correctly to the Chinese government and then route it through other countries to avoid any tariffs. This is exactly what US businesses would do if the situation was reversed. If hiding exports was official Chinese policy, I am certain that they are smart enough to just falsify the information. China cannot hurt the US very much on trade. Our exports are fungible, like food and commodities. Fungible exports cannot be banned or tariffed effectively. If China bought their food from another country, we would sell our food to the seller country. If they tried to squeeze us out, there would be oversupply and the selling country would be punished unless China overpaid (which is a tax) for its imports. The poorest do not work (perhaps old or dependent). The tariff costs can be easily mitigated for them. For the relevant working class, the wage increases will be much greater than the tariff tax. So the working class wins. The elite lose. The Chinese lose. And if you understand economics (e.g. Kalecki’s profit equation and why I would bring this up), you know that the elite are collaborating with the Chinese so they can get low tax rates and entitlements. Of course the elite are going to be against it. They just want to get rich off of China and let the working class deal with the consequences. Speaking of China… EcoHealth Alliance, the nonprofit that Dr. Anthony Fauci used to offshore risky gain-of-function research to China 6 months before the Obama administration banned it, has finally been cut off by the US Government – along with its former president, Peter Daszak, for a period of five years following scrutiny over its work in Wuhan, China ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. Dr. Anthony Fauci ‘prompted’ the fabrication of a paper by a cadre of scientists aimed at disproving the Covid-19 lab-leak theory. According to US Right to Know , emails obtained in 2020 revealed that a statement in The Lancet authored by 27 prominent public health scientists condemning “conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin” was organized by employees of EcoHealth Allianc e, a non-profit group that has received millions of dollars of U.S. taxpayer funding to genetically manipulate coronaviruses with scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology . After Sars-CoV-2 broke out down the street from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Fauci engaged in a massive campaign to deny the possibility of a lab-leak from the lab he funded, and instead pin the blame on a yet-to-be discovered zoonotic intermediary species. https://usrtk.org/covid-19-origins/timeline-the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/ I can’t believe that I read Mish’s 10th article this year on Trump tariffs, and it’s only the 18th of January. Fortunately, we’re less than 48 hours away from finding out about Trump’s big border, deportations, tax cuts, tariffs, & crypto currency strategies. Did anyone buy $Trump crypto Friday night? I bought a bunch, to get around the gift tax. Well maybe the “poor” in the USA shouldn’t be buying cheap crap from China in the first place. By increasing the the price of cheap crap from China maybe people won’t buy it. If they don’t buy it no tax is paid and they experience zero inflation. If in fact China is sending the US some $60 billion in small parcels then the US needs to do what Australia did: tax them. I can’t remember what year it was, but several years ago we were able to buy things under a certain amount on platforms such as eBay from international sellers and pay zero tax on them. Lots of businesses in Australia started yelling about unfair competition and all that sort of stuff so they changed the system to force the big platforms to collect 10% GST on all purchases added on to the price automatically. And the GST included postage as well. Add in the huge increase in international postage costs, the GST, and fall in the Australian dollar and prices of some things have gone up by a huge amount. For example, I used to buy one item from a Japanese seller on eBay at around US$15.00. Small packet postage was around US$4 so my total cost was US$19 or around A$25 at that time. Fast forward to recent times. The price of the item is now around US$25, postage has increased to US$15 (thanks to those international postage reforms proposed by Obama and approved under Trump), and GST on the purchase is US$4 for a total of US$44. With fall in the exchange rate it works out to around $A70 or so. Guess what? I don’t buy it anymore. However if you travel overseas and return to Australia you can bring in $A900 per adult tax free. Some purchases for personal use such as clothes you bought overseas and used are not included in the amount. You can buy lots of stuff overseas much cheaper than in Australia and if brought back with you, you don’t have to pay exorbitant postage so it’s best to max out your shopping and allowance. You can probably pay for your ticket with the savings on price difference, GST, and postage savings. But twhat about cigarettes one of those staples of duty free shopping? Cigs – you are allowed one packet of cigarettes is all. Australia is the most expensive country in the world to buy those death sticks at around A$40 a pack. Yep, $A40 a pack. What about booze? 2.25 liters of booze. Again tax on booze here is high pushing up the price. You can buy a 700ml bottle of JW Black Label for around A$58 here. It is cheaper in Japan at any grocery store…..Here you can’t buy booze at a grocery store either. That’s the spirit… own nothing, be happy. Exactly as I planned it with my minions and demagogues and “our democracy ™ “ Many things about Australia suck not the least of which was their authoritarian long running covid lockdowns and forced vaccination. Their retirement system is great though. Yes, there are a few things better in Australia than some other countries, but there used to be a lot more. This place has changed a lot for the worse over the past 40 years or so. Retirement system is good and better than the US. Even better if you have some money, but not too much. No inheritance tax and no capital gains tax on your principal place of residence. IMO the government here in Victoria is going to try and implement an inheritance tax in the future. The state government is broke and in debt. Land tax in Victoria is outrageous and real estate tax on your PPR has gone way up for basically nothing in return, but still way cheaper than the US. Medical system is much cheaper than the US with prescription prices very reasonable. The public hospital system is basically free, but wait times for the ER and non life threatening surgery here in Victoria are too long. The ambulance service/waiting times are ridiculously long. Some people call a taxi to go to the ER even if they have a heart attack/stroke. Crime is generally low in many areas, but again has increased a lot over the years. The worst parts of Australia are the high cost of living and too much regulation of all aspects of life and business. The United States could not bear 60% tarrifs on Chineese goods, lest there be civil unrest. This isn’t 1929. The agrarian age is over, and so are any clever ways to enact US ecomic autonomy. I smell Y.U.G.E. debt under Trump. Would there be a tax on chinese ingredients(for lack of a better word) that make 90% of our antiobiotics? What about Chinese parts that go into our fighter jets? In 2023, the US imported 8.5 mbpd of petroleum products, including 6.5 mbpd of heavy crude oil that our refineries use. 8.5 mbpd x $80 x 30 day =$20 billion per month A 25% tariff results in $5 billion per month in revenue for the US government. Unfortunately it all comes from the US consumer in the form of higher prices for gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, jet fuel etc None of this comes from China. In fact we export oil and gas to China. Yeah but all those 200,000 gas stations are competing with each other. Prices go up slowly and come down even slower. Sometimes it isnt macroeconomics. Sometimes its damn Zeke down the street whose station is taking all my business. I gotta compete. Yes. There is a lot of competition in gasoline. Which is why profit margins are very low. The typical gas station net profit per gallon on gasoline ranges from 3-8 cents per gallon. That is why many stations have convenience stores to sell you items with high profit margins. So if a station buys their gas from the refiner at $3.00 and Trump then adds a 25% tariff on the oil the refiner buys, then the refiner must boost the price to the gas station to $3.75. Add 8 cents profit and the pump price is now $3.83. And all those gas stations can compete at the new level. Competing means either dropping your prices or offering some extra service which may or may not cost you more in the long run. I still think there will be a few desperate vendors who will be forced to drop prices no matter what the tariff is, at least for awhile. You have a strange idea of what competition means. If all gas stations see their cost of gasoline increase from $3 to $3.75, there is nothing they can do about it. No amount of competition is going to bring the price below their breakeven cost of $3.75. “ Which is why profit margins are very low. The typical gas station net profit per gallon on gasoline ranges from 3-8 cents per gallon.” Just wondering. In my area, Costco gas is ALWAYS $0.20 cheaper than the typical gas station. Does this mean Costco is losing $0.12-$0.17 per gallon? How can this be? I find it very hard to believe that the typical gas station’s margin is 1-2%. PapaD, come on! Nope. Costco does not sell gas at a loss. Costco is willing to make a 1-2% margin on gas, as each location sells over 1 million gallons per month. And gas is a draw that gets people into their stores. Other gas stations, with convenience stores will take 2-3% margins on 100,000 gallons per month. Smaller independents need 3-5% margins as they may only sell 60,000 gallons a month. Second, Costco can negotiate slightly lower prices when buying their gas due to their incredibly high volumes. In addition, you need to purchase a Costco membership to buy gas at Costco. And Costco makes a large part of their profits from membership sales. Most gas stations break even on the gas. They make their money selling stuff inside the station. This is why you see the rise of WaWa type gas stations that sell decent food along with a myriad of groceries Stopping for gas is just to lure you into the store. In other words it’s highly unlikely gas stations will drop prices on gas because they are already making zero or next to zero profit on the gas. Imported heavy crude is not priced at $80 a barrel so you entire post is incorrect. lol! WTI is currently $77.88, Brent is $80.79, and Murban is $83.65. And these numbers will change every day. $80 was just a rough estimate in order to estimate possible tariff revenue in the coming months. In addition, the 8.5 mbpd figure was an estimate as well, as this number typically fluctuates between 7 and 10 mbpd. If I had said I was hot and sweaty because it was 100F outside, would you tell me that it’s not hot outside at all, and I can’t possibly be hot and sweaty because it’s not 100F; it’s only 99F, so everything else I said must be wrong? Educate yourself and learn a little at the same time. The US imports a lot of crude from Canada and pays the market price for Canadian crude which is much lower than WTI. You can even look up the price and see how much the discount for Canadian crude is from WTI. Brent, Murban, and other oil prices are basically irrelevant in the USA oil market. Yes. The US imports more crude oil from Canada than any other country. And at a discount to boot. I am well aware of this because of my substantial holdings of Canadian oil and gas stocks. Even with a lower WCS price they are gushing some pretty generous free cash flow. And the price differential has been narrowing with the startup of the TMX pipeline. The US also imports oil from Venezuela, Mexico, Saudi and others at higher prices. I would be glad to redo the calculation for you based on your opinion. Just tell me what you think the “average” price for imported oil and petroleum products into the US will be in 2025, and what will be the average number of barrels per day of these products? I estimated an average of 8.5 mbpd at $80. What is your estimate? Perhaps you think the average price will be $70? Then the calculation would be: 8.5 mbpd x $70 x 30 =$17.85 billion per month instead of $20 billion A 25% tariff would then be $4.46 billion per month rather than 5 billion. Or better yet. How about you tell me how much the US will collect in tariffs on imported oil and petroleum products in 2025? How does China keep their slave labor busy in a trade war? The US can hunker down but what is to be done with idle hands that need to be fed. Back in the day they were pushed out to the border to build a massive wall. What would they do today? I have no idea but it’s a lot of people. What happens if they get ornery. As others have stated, the problem keeps Xi up at night. Xi is probably more worried about where he’s going to be able to run to. Trump is consistent: vulgar, grifting, cheap, tacky, lying, felonious, corrupt, abusive, vain, weak and ignorant. Everything you need to be a successful autocrat. Except you need to be a little smarter and a little less lazy. Colin Powell said much of the same about Hillary: https://www.cbsnews.com/media/5-emails-in-which-colin-powell-slammed-hillary-clinton/ He himself lied about weapons of mass destruction so pick your poison. I think that you meant Biden is …… Did you seen where Speaker Johnson said he knew Joe was gone, when he didn’t realize that he had signed some EO? But a refreshing change after the last administration. But it doesn’t make him a bad person. In other words we can expect continuity between administrations. Awesome! Like all other developing countries the USA can restore manufacturing behind a high tariff wall. Japan did it. China did it. South Korea did it. Europe still does it. While I do not know how much this may or may not influence the data, it has to be noted that an increasingly larger portion of Chinese exports to USA has pre-paid ocean freight. In other words, the shipper in China pays the ocean freight. Having spent my career in shipping, I can say that a large portion of Chinese exports to the USA is from a Chinese entity in China going to a Chinese consignee in the U.S. This is especially true for a type of cargo moving under a NVOCC bill of lading (non-vessel operating common carrier). I am not arguing with Mish’s analysis. I am just pointing out that the transportation costs maybe a variable impacting the data. The Chinese NVOCC trade between China (exports) and U.S. (imports) is massive! Weeeellll in a normal world, there would also be a competition component to all this. If a business cant sell a widget for $100 cause its competition is selling it for less, the business would have to consider dropping the price of the widget to get at least some revenue for its (fixed) expenses. The tariff may not be passed on at all. It would just be a lost opportunity for profit for the business. But since this isnt the real world and Covid slammed shut the doors of a lot of businesses, the competition factor may be a lot smaller. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • I have not commented on Case-Shiller for a while. Here is a batch of new charts. Change Since January 2020 Case-Shiller National: +52.3% Case-Shiller 10-City: +52.0% CPI: +22.0% Owners’ Equivalent Rent: +26.0% Rent +26.4% Case Shiller 10-City Index Three cities in the 10-city index are below levels hit in 2020. Denver is down 3.4 percent, Las Vegas is down 1.1 percent, and San Francisco is down 8.3 percent. All other cities are at or near peak prices. Rent, OER, Case-Shiller Percent Change From Year Ago Except for a small window of time year-over-year Case-Shiller measures have outpaced the CPI, often dramatically. Case-Shiller Home Price vs Hourly Earnings, the CPI, and Rent Percentage Change Since January 2020 CPI: 22.8 Percent Average Hourly Earnings: 28.2 Percent Rent: 26.2 Percent Case-Shiller National Home Price: 52.3 Percent Those numbers do not reflect property taxes that vary by state nor mortgage rates. Mess Entirely of Fed’s Making This is a mess entirely of the Fed’s making. And it’s what happens when the Fed, and economists in general do not count home prices as inflation. Home prices are not directly in the CPI or PCE. The latter is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Economists consider home prices a capital expense not a consumer expense. The problem is simple: Inflation is not just a consumer price concern! The Fed ignored obvious inflation in the Great Recession and did so again in the Covid recession. Related Posts January 24, 2025: For the Full Year, 2024 Existing-Home Sales Lowest in Nearly 30 Years 2024 was a terrible year for Realtors. Will 2025 be any better? February 18, 2025: NAHB Housing Sentiment Flounders, the Market Needs Lower Mortgage Rates Homebuilder sentiment has been low since mid-2022. Buyer traffic is dismal. February 21, 2025: Existing-Home Sales Drop 4.9 Percent in January, More Than Expected After three months of increases, sale took a big dive in January. Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed On February 3, I commented Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed Regarding Fedthink Reader: Sometimes I wonder if people like Mish really think that the Fed plays it straight in times like this, versus telling us what is ostensibly the straight dope while they are actually playing some complex metagame. Mish: I have commented on this before. The Fed believes the nonsense they preach on 2% inflation, inflation expectations, the Phillips curve and other economic nonsense that amusingly even the Fed’s own studies prove wrong. There is no diversity in thought at the Fed. You get in the position of Fed Governor or President by thinking the same way as the rest of the members. People confuse diversity with race and sex. True diversity is in thought. But there is no diversity of thought at the Fed. They have all been trained to be ignorant. And you do not get into the group unless you believe the same things. This we call Fedthink. The Fed destroyed liquidity in the housing market with massive QE that allowed existing owners to refinance at cheap rates fueling inflation via permanent lower mortgage rate (extra money in pockets), while screwing all potential new buyers with runaway prices and higher mortgage rates. Change Since January 2020 Case Shiller 10-City Index Three cities in the 10-city index are below levels hit in 2020. Denver is down 3.4 percent, Las Vegas is down 1.1 percent, and San Francisco is down 8.3 percent. All other cities are at or near peak prices. Rent, OER, Case-Shiller Percent Change From Year Ago Except for a small window of time year-over-year Case-Shiller measures have outpaced the CPI, often dramatically. Case-Shiller Home Price vs Hourly Earnings, the CPI, and Rent Percentage Change Since January 2020 Those numbers do not reflect property taxes that vary by state nor mortgage rates. Mess Entirely of Fed’s Making This is a mess entirely of the Fed’s making. And it’s what happens when the Fed, and economists in general do not count home prices as inflation. Home prices are not directly in the CPI or PCE. The latter is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Economists consider home prices a capital expense not a consumer expense. The problem is simple: Inflation is not just a consumer price concern! The Fed ignored obvious inflation in the Great Recession and did so again in the Covid recession. Related Posts January 24, 2025: For the Full Year, 2024 Existing-Home Sales Lowest in Nearly 30 Years 2024 was a terrible year for Realtors. Will 2025 be any better? February 18, 2025: NAHB Housing Sentiment Flounders, the Market Needs Lower Mortgage Rates Homebuilder sentiment has been low since mid-2022. Buyer traffic is dismal. February 21, 2025: Existing-Home Sales Drop 4.9 Percent in January, More Than Expected After three months of increases, sale took a big dive in January. Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed On February 3, I commented Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed Regarding Fedthink Reader: Sometimes I wonder if people like Mish really think that the Fed plays it straight in times like this, versus telling us what is ostensibly the straight dope while they are actually playing some complex metagame. Mish: I have commented on this before. The Fed believes the nonsense they preach on 2% inflation, inflation expectations, the Phillips curve and other economic nonsense that amusingly even the Fed’s own studies prove wrong. There is no diversity in thought at the Fed. You get in the position of Fed Governor or President by thinking the same way as the rest of the members. People confuse diversity with race and sex. True diversity is in thought. But there is no diversity of thought at the Fed. They have all been trained to be ignorant. And you do not get into the group unless you believe the same things. This we call Fedthink. The Fed destroyed liquidity in the housing market with massive QE that allowed existing owners to refinance at cheap rates fueling inflation via permanent lower mortgage rate (extra money in pockets), while screwing all potential new buyers with runaway prices and higher mortgage rates. Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. It’s also the fault of Congress, both the Republicans and Democrats, Trump, Biden, back to Obama at least: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB Congress and the presidents appointed and confirmed the fed governors who have done all this socialist interest rate suppression by debasing the US dollar. Our citizens need to be better informed and educated about whats going on. The people could change this by not electing politicians who support policy thats done so much senseless damage to our country. On an episode of “Gilligan’s Island”, Mr Howell tried to piece together the wrong section of a broken ancient stone map. He exclaimed: “A Howell is never wrong, cut off a piece and make it fit”. The Fed followed the same egotistic method, to wedge a decade of ZIRP, into an archaic 1938 theory of secular stagnation. The Fed could only achieve this by finagling the BLS to ‘cut off’ the rise in home prices from the measure of inflation. Otherwise their scheme would quickly end. A strategy the Fed took from the mortgage crisis. When brokers bribed the major credit rating agencies to give AAA ratings to their worthless CMOs. The Fed still holds $4T from the liquidity disaster on their balance sheets. The Fed’s repurchase of these 10-year Treasuries maintains long-rates a few basis points above the low levels of the Greenspan years, that sparked the mortgage fiasco. These low rates will continue to inflate home prices. The TV episode ended with a pieced together stone map that gave directions ‘to’ the island. A parallel to the decade of Fed trillions in ZIRP, that only led back to a wealth gap, only wider this time. And a greater number of lower economic class, working just to pay inflated rent, with no hope of achieving the American dream of ownership. Next week, Gilligan and Mr Howell discover a gold mine, and flood the island economy with liquidity, inflating the cost of goods and services. It is amazing how much better the online appraisal tools are getting at Zillow and Redfin. For most single family homes, they are so much better than they were just a few years ago. You can use their metro data to watch house price inflation in near realtime. I don’t think the main problem for housing prices and affordability is the Fed. It’s the structure of our mortgage market, which is exceptional (in the bad sense) as anybody who has looked at mortgage markets across countries would readily admit. The mortgage-backing institutions were the cause of the 30-years fixed interest mortgage lock-in effect, which in turn has driven up house prices, depressed building new housing, and frozen new buyers out of the market. Obviously, this was all unintended by the designers of Fannie and Freddie. But government interventions in markets more often than not have serious unintended effects, in this case pretty bad ones. Fannie’s and Freddie’s dominance was predicted in May 1980. So was the GFC, as a result of the reduction in legal reserves. But the U.S. Golden Age in Capitalism was driven by the thrifts. Trump’s version of a soft landing is winning, Fed is useless at best 😃 Mish, your closing comment nails it,👍 In west coast and northeast cities, the housing market is shockingly strong. Most likely, people are being forced to return to the office. In contrast, home prices are sinking in cities that are favorites for remote workers. Even in most of Florida where inventory is up huge, prices have for the most part stayed incredibly resilient. That said, inventory does continue to build at a rapid clip. “The Fed ignored obvious inflation in the Great Recession and did so again in the Covid recession.” The FED ignores that a 2% target inflation rate is not stable prices. If one looks at the value of the dollar since 1913, it has always gone down over time, the inverse of the mantra that the stock market always goes up over time (pay no attention to that 76% drop in the Nasdaq). Modern Monetary Theory is Gaslighting. The laws of math never change. Thus Volker “rediscovered” the business cycle, which was there all along. Noteworthy Pg. 224 “Keeping At It” “Now, in recognition of the need for discipline, a remarkable consensus has developed among modern central bankers, including in the Federal Reserve, that there’s a new “red line” for policy: a 2 percent rate of increase in some carefully designed consumer price index is acceptable, even desirable, and at the same time provides a limit. I puzzle about the rationale. A 2 percent target, or limit, was not in my textbooks years ago. I know of no theoretical justification It’s difficult to be both a target and a limit at the same time. And a 2 percent inflation rate, successfully maintained, would mean the price level doubles in little more than a generation. I do know some practical facts. No price index can capture, down to a tenth or a quarter of a percent, the real change in consumer prices. The variety of goods and services, the shifts in demand, the subtle changes in pricing and quality are too complex to calculate precisely from month to month or year to year. Move over, as an economy grows or slows, there is a tendency for prices to change, a little more up in periods of economic expansion, maybe a little down as the economy slows or recedes, but not sideways year after year. Yet, as I write, with economic growth rising and the unemployment rate near historic lows, concerns are being voiced that consumer prices are growing too slowly—just because they’re a quarter percent or so below the 2 percent target! Could that be a signal to “ease” monetary policy, or at least to delay restraint, even with the economy at full employment? Certainly, that would be nonsense. How did central bankers fall into the trap of assigning such weight to tiny changes in a single statistic, with all of its inherent weakness? Three underground crematoriums in an extermination camp were discovered near Guadalajara Mexico. Body parts, bone and shoes were found. The Mexican Nazi are our biggest enemies They are within. “Today is a great day to buy a home!” – NAR, every day since I’ve been alive. Marketing one’s own self interest. And, that advice turned out to be true. that depends on a host of variables, such as price, ability to repay, location, etc. Putin’s hokey stick stretched all the way to Kherson on the Dnipro river. A trade can happen: Russian troops retreat east, away from the Dnipro, Ukraine move west away from Donetsk, no French or British troops in the middle. If signed money will pour in. There are 6 seasonal, endogenous, economic inflection points each year. (they may vary a little from year to year): Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan. Pivot ↑ #2 mid Mar. Pivot ↓ #3 May 5, Pivot ↑ #4 mid Jun. Pivot ↓ #5 July 21, Pivot ↑ #6 2-3 week in Oct. These seasonal factors are pre-determined by the FRB-NY’s “trading desk” operations, executing the FOMC’s monetary policy directives: in the present case just reserve “smoothing” and “draining” operations, the oscillating inflows and outflows, the making and or receiving of correspondent and other interbank payments by and large using their “net free” (as opposed to “net borrowed”) excess reserve balances). Each, and every year, the seasonal factor’s map (economic time series’ cyclical trend), or scientific proof, is demonstrated by the product of money flows, our means-of-payment money times its transaction’s velocity of circulation (the scientific method). –Michel de Nostradame As I said in response to where stocks are headed in 2025: “ I don’t do levels, only directions. I think most stocks are headed down.” December 27, 2024 at 7:57 AM As Dr. Philip George says: “The velocity of money is a function of interest rates” Dr. Philip George wrote: “The Riddle of Money Finally Solved”. As Dr. Philip George puts it: “Changes in velocity have nothing to do with the speed at which money moves from hand to hand but are entirely the result of movements between demand deposits and other kinds of deposits.” But MMMFs have grown by 19% y-o-y. All the motives which induce the holding of a larger volume of money will tend to increase the demand for money – and reduce its velocity. Bernanke censored the FED’s technical staff back in 2008. Otherwise, you’d see some dissention amongst the Ph.Ds. in economics. The real culprit behind our mess is the Keynesian macro-economic persuasion that maintains a commercial bank is a conduit between savers and borrowers. Not so. All monetary savings originate within the payment’s system period. The bankers pay for, compete for, the deposits that they already own. How perverse as this impounds savings and reduces R-gDp. The payment of interest on interbank demand deposits is responsible for the artificial suppression of long-term interest rates. This led to the diversion of savings from the bond market to housing and stocks. It was a deliberate policy blunder. Bernanke, pg. 287 in his book “The Courage to Act”, “Lower long-term rates also tend to raise asset prices, including house and stock prices, which, by making people feel wealthier, tends to stimulate consumer spending” (aka the “wealth effect”). “Housing is considered unaffordable if it costs more than 30% of an individual’s income”. Some esteemed people are actual idiots. Paul Volcker was dumb as a rock. Paul Volcker was quoted in the WSJ in 1983 that the Fed: “as a matter of principle favors payment of interest on all reserve balances” … “on rounds of equity”. [sic] Contrary to Friedman, reserves were never a tax. They were “Manna from Heaven”, showered on the bankers and costless to the banks. The money multiplier in 2008 was 206:1. Charles Hughes Smith put it @ 219:1 Link: “Bank Reserves And Loans: The Fed Is Pushing On A String” by Charles Hugh Smith Bank Reserves and Loans: The Fed is Pushing On a String – InvestingChannel You get higher real rates of interest for saver-holders by driving the banks out of the savings business, which doesn’t reduce the size of the payment’s system. In the circular flow of income, unless savings are expeditiously activated, then a dampening economic impact is generated. It was called secular stagnation. Who would have imagined that people pooping on the sidewalks of San Francisco may have lowered real estate values … With big creativity and freedom, presumably, comes volatility of outcomes. There are domains of creative freedom there, despite the stereotype, or it would not have remade the world. You can smooth outcomes in that domain, is that what you are advocating? And the real estate values are quite high. The rush outward from the pandemic seems to have settled down some. Networking still matters. Proximity to Stanford matters. So, are you saying that sidewalk poooping is just a small price to pay for creativity and freedom? san fran is KNOWN for its artistic shit… Says a lot that people will pay much more to live in a place with poop on the sidewalk than they would to live wherever you are. that says a lot about the people that choose to live with public shitting. One of the 1st prerequisites to modern society is hygiene, physical,social, and infrastructure. California in general went mad in the 20th century, there is some doubt if sanity will ever return in our lifetimes. Yeah, the doc that headed the free health clinic in Haight-Ashbury said heroin is so good, don’t even try it once. CSPAN: every day boomers are retiring/dying. Biden built a bridge to the world to replace them. RRP money poured into 3/6 month bills, CDs and MMF which supported $8T of new gov debt within 4 years to ensure the final 100Y uniparty victory. If JP will cut rates the “Rent” money will pour into the economy, reduce mortgage rates and ease gov debt payments The “Rent” money is 1/3 of US GDP. … and nudge inflation to other products and services. Meanwhile, what will stop the surge into asset bubbles? The “Rent” money financed gov spending. When gov spending rises productivity fall. Higher gov debt payments finance by higher debt, higher payments, higher interest rates and higher budget deficit. The private sector cannot raise debt forever like the gov. It’s not fair: private companies will go bk High inflation deflate assets value and RE. Rent is higher than wages. “Built a bridge to the Third World to replace them”. There. Fixed it for ya. ‘The Fed’ has profited in the 100’s of billions since its inception. the classic insider project. The Fed, enriching its members daily since inception after a secret meeting on Jekyl Island, Georgia. Peanuts for the gov. Biden did nothing,his wife and handlers used the demented dementia patient for their own desires. Biden was simultaneously an all powerful king and an impotent old man? Do you clowns even listen to yourselves? Biden was never a King, at least not since Obama was in office and Biden was the King of Crime. a large scale grift, like a corporation, takes on a life of its own, that can continue long after a founding partner ceases to be cognitively aware. Its interesting to note Danielle DeMartino Booth who Mish follows, keeps stating were are deflating based on the govt inflation data. She worked for the Fed and has called out their hypocrisy so I don’t understand her conclusions. Housing inflation is eroding our standard of living as well as all the other rising expenses conveniently excluded in the CPI/PPI. We are being conned by our dear leaders. The underpinnings of civil unrest are being stirred by our incompetent and corrupt government. Part of the fourth turning. DDB is certainly a well learned economist, but like Mish a year ago, she said the US had entered a recession in Oct 2023. A year ago, she was saying that unemployment was going to spike. So, she’s far from infallible. The real problem with DDB, me or anyone else making predictions the amount of money we’ve pumped into the system over the last 5 years and continue to do so via $2T annual deficits. Therefore, we can all throw out just about any past comparisons. In addition, we’ve got a president who’s turning almost everything on its head in an attempt to make long-term structural changes to how America runs government, trade, immigration, etc. In Iran inflation is high. Assets and income deflate. Income deflate faster than rent. They use mazut to heat Tehran. Daily stoppages. Workers do nothing all day. The Baluchi terrorize both Iran and Afghanistan. Centrifugal forces threaten to rip them apart. The Baluchi state spread between Karachi and the straights of Hormuz. Ruling Iran with an iron fist might not work. Trump dbl down on the Iranian inflation. Yes but what about Iranian Bitcoin mining in the digital mountains of the Quantum range. CIA spies posing as hikers in the Quantum range have photographs indicating a near infinite supply of ones and zeros. You can do a thought experiment. Incorporate Case-Shiller housing prices into a new version of the CPI. Then try to stabilize the new version of the CPI around some inflation target rate, using whatever monetary policy instruments you want. Given that housing prices are an asset price that can easily move by 10-20 percentage points up or down, I predict that you are to end up destabilizing the old version of the CPI. For example, if housing prices have a share of 1/3 (replacing housing cost), and housing prices go up by 20 percent, we need deflation of 10 percent in all other CPI items. This may well be the reason why it seems no central bank in this world has tried targeting inflation measures that include housing prices. Instead of thanking the Fed for saving them during covid people complain about the high inflation, high rent and RE prices. The FED didn’t save anybody during Covid. That’s your opinion. Mine too, M.E. The Fed is there to source (sauce?) the $ the gov., in its infinite wisdom, threw at you. boy or boy your conclusions are amazing My memory has been having lapses since my last 7 boosters, but I seem to remember the FED giving out certificates to anyone who got the initial MRNA vaccine series, it said on the back if you survived 10 years, you could cash it in for $1.25 or a Big Mac, which ever value was less. Wondering, whom did The Fed save? ‘The Fed’ is privately owned. The name is just a way of conferring validity. gradually then suddenly… gated communities surrounded by slums, the United States of Brazil. “Gated communities” is the keystone of understanding Trump’s psyche. It is the centerpiece of every last thing he does. Extracting natural resources and turning them into gleaming very exclusive walled sanctuaries for the rich (no matter the provenance of their wealth) is his ethos. For the enthusiastic, I would intone, ask not for whom the velvet rope bars access, it bars it for thee (in all probability). The masses are to be waiters or soldiers or such, dutiful and smiling brightly and lacking inner life, or to be thrust outside the barriers, into the despoiled former open spaces. Trump didn’t invented Gated Communities. they’ve existed since the barbarians were borrowing books from the library of Alexandria and not returning them or tearing out the pages and coloring in them. The FED is working perfectly for its shareholders. They don’t include housing on purpose. Their use of hedonic models to make price increases negligible have increased their ability to serve their shareholders even better. As is most the government the FED is not really working for us! Between Mar 2020 and Mar 2022 the Federal Fund Rate was zero. When the eon was comatose and everything was closed the Fed transferred money to the poor and the middle class to keep them alive. They did it several times. They created a money tsunami and tsunami of gov debt. When the econ was opened RRP sucked liquidity first, before raising rates from zero in Mar 2022 to 5.33% in Aug 2023. During the pandemic people escaped high rise buildings and major cities to work from home. Lower mortgage rates enabled them to buy existing housed and condos in the suburbs and the flyover areas. Demand was high. The RE market was saved, The econ was saved. CRE and the bond market were massacred. In 2022 when the stock market collapsed the Fed poured in RRP money into the economy. Now the Fed is handling the aftershocks of covid, the flow of twenty millions new immigrants and the sudden flip from tranquility volatility. I disagree that the fed’s money printing helped the poor and middle class. I think it did the opposite. Their rate repression pushed house prices out of reach for those people and caused inflation and worse debt that common people usually bear the brunt of. Correct It is ludicrous to claim money printing helps the poor. Printing benefits those with first access to money. 1. the wealthy 2. the asset holders 3. politicians A true diversity in Mish, Over a 5 year period, it seems illogical that the price of a home should go up by 52%, while rents only go up by half that, including the figment of Ivory tower imagination, OER. Half!!! (and am I right that the avg. wage has gone up less than rents?) The government’s use of CPI as defining inflation seems more fraudulent than incompetent. the whole point of mass media is to create a fictional reality, statistics are a means of adding a concreteness to that which is ephemeral. They make the illusions appear to have foundations in reality. The numbers are buried in a morass of fictional constructs, that bury those on a quest for knowledge like a sea of quick sand. Well said, Gwako. Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is interesting; what they conceal is critical. Its actually very COMPLEX. We actually sold a home and a Chinese market bought it, the highest bid. Read the American Realtors, the Chinese are one of the biggest buyers?? YIKES So, the migrants, California GREED, foreign markets are causing the housing prices to go up. Its complex, everyone is messing up our markets, and yes GREED. Your Curves don’t account for ANY of these complex issues. Now in my neighborhood we have multiple homes empty, yes Empty, and sold for a MILLION. So go figure, what is happening? EMPTY!! No one moved IN. “Homes” are repositories for money. The owner can borrow against that, and use the cash. Often this is a component of laundering. No small surprise that the Trump Treasury just suspended the rule requiring disclosure of beneficial ownership of shell companies. This is the pipeline through which endless streams of money flow to his folks. No surprise that the most expensive art piece traded in history (a similar asset) went in and out of the hands of a guy who also traded RE with Trump in Florida, a quick flip with plenty of profit for Trump. It doesn’t matter and is a distraction (right?) that the guy is Russian. So Trump will “liberate” OUR forests (his words) for development. I was in an open house today in Minneapolis that had close to 200 attendees. There was no room to move around. Buyers are rabid. Supply is constrained by people unwilling to leave their 2.75% rate. Covid not only didn’t warrant the paranoid lockdown, it also discombobulated the economy for years. F’ng Faucci and his gain of function Wuhan lab. He should be executed. Compassionately, of course. I’m down with that, as long as “ Compassionately” includes hanging by rope. Velvet rope, maybe. infinity shots of vaccine? sand flies, after being restrained in a comfortable chair, we are after all not barbarians. As if we’re gonna have enough trouble finding anyone to work in government with tens of thousands getting cut loose, and now people like you wanting to kill everyone who doesnt agree with Trump’s lying mental illness. We’ll end up with bible thumpers tell us to pray more. Thanks. God forbid we won’t have enough government workers. We shouldn’t execute everyone, silly. Just Tony Fauci. If you know anyone else who went around the ban on gain of function research by opening a lab in China, well, they could probably just be maimed. Scott comes from the school of thought that the free market is the jungle full of wild animals, germs, and dangerous plants and fungi; he cleans his house 7 times a day – a lucky number for OCD sufferers. In Scott’s world, the government is like pure white cube of justice, logic, and reason, a fortress of soap that cleanses the world of all danger, and decorates it with soft furnishings – but this is mainly for the pigs of this version of Animal Farm, and the serfs outside toil for the glory of the perpetual revolution, safe from the terrors outside in the jungle. “everyone” …when only one person was mentioned… exaggeration is part of your psychosis. Bat parmigiana for dinner … at my house we just call it, “The Wet Market Special”… If what you state are facts (I have No Doubt), then how are these numbers any good at all? If the numbers do not “reflect property taxes” that vary by state nor “mortgage rates” then they are incomplete pictures of actual occurrences, are they not? As an example, my Town just had a new assessment and our Taxes increased by 50% in some cases for people (mine 40%). This is an occurrence by all towns and cities etc. every so often (States vary) by their laws. It must be included, as it’s absolute to change, and nearly “Always Higher” Same with “Mortgage Rates”, but even more unknown as to how often, as there are no rules to the “Economy” in that regard. Key Issue: I agree that “QE that allowed existing owners to refinance at cheap rates” and the results of that were very damaging. Now many of those people spent the savings, and have less money coming in now, due to inflation, and savings have been depleted. They can’t and may never be able to refinance or sell and buy again imo. This scenario also can lead to less spending as well, for obvious reasons. It’s as if the “Cure” was actually the “Disease” for the Economy. I dare say it was a reflection of “Covid Reactions” as well which was just as devastating to the Economy. The Fed lost their way in so many ways, and over such a short period of time. It’s almost impossible that it could have happened without guidance, assistance, and massive agreement by ALL! What Town are you in where your taxes increase 50% in a year? Here in WA our property is assessed at the County level and when the assessed values go up, the tax rate goes down. Any tax increase is also constitutionally limited to 1%. Last year my assessed value went up but my taxes went down. Mine in Chicago are set to increase 26% in August (in one year) …. my building’s value kept getting increased after many years of valuing it relatively cheaply. It can happen. Especially in socialist sancturies. Except CA has the same kind of limits on tax hikes. So that will be interesting, when the bill here for migrants’ medical comes in. The CA legislature is mouth-foaming insane. I am sure none of them have ever run a business. Fortunately the RE taxes are above them constitutionally, or they would’ve turned this place into Venezuela. Well, someone has to pay for all those gov. workers and their gold plated pensions. Only people like you, idiots and ignorant, non-gov workers/pensioners stay to transfer their money to those rich people. Mish spoke with his wallet. And all the overpay just flows into housing bubbles. I know a retired CA teacher traipsing around Europe with the wife, retired cop lolling in a Caribbean sipping cocktails while listening to stupid music. Both with generous houses in SoCal and plenty of disposable income. Meanwhile, streets full of potholes, and the younger generation they purported to help and support is working 2 jobs to pay rent on a bedroom in somebody’s house. You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave… Midnight and I are fighting about this and so far he is winning (10 year yield still stuck at 4.3% — not that I mind since my retirement pays based on the 10-year yield), but Im still of the mind Trump and his rich private equity friends still want free money (0% rates) to continue to buy up America as they did 2006-2022. And Im still betting those interest rates are going to zero by any means necessary. That crowd has access to capital, and collateral, and leverage, so can cash in on such things. It is a flywheel that so far seems never to stop. Three of the top 25 hottest real estate markets have been in Waterbury, Bridgeport, and Hartford Connecticut. These are cesspools of crime and violence. That shows how irrational buyers are behaving. The housing market is about to burst. The reason for the huge price increases in the northeast US is immigrants. I saw a news story about Waterbury in particular being a magnet for migrants. Upstate NY is seeing crazy price increases (+20% over the last year) for the same reasons. Connecticut saw a housing ‘crash’ back in 2022 that lasted about a month. The price increases since 2022 have actually been higher than during the pandemic. My prediction is house prices nationally are not going to fall because of recession. Lower mortgage rates and pent up demand will offset the effect of job losses. Real-estate values are still relatively tied to location. That being said, I don’t know if a real-estate crash is coming, but here in FL the tied appears to have turned into a buyer’s market. The days that homes are on the market has increased and there are subsequent price drops to the original listing price when the house sits too long without any offers. Its actually “tide”, but tied is a nice pun and maybe more appropriate for those economic serfs now bound to the financial insanity of the modern world. Maybe they ship the inhabitants over to wherever they are shipping the Palestinians. No doubt, the fed and government will make whatever “adjustments” are necessary to support their desired income on “inflation.” more F the veterans Arlington Cemetery website drops links for Black, Hispanic, and women veteranshttps://taskandpurpose.com/news/arlington-cemetery-scrubs-website-dei/ Hyperinflation is the only way to pay off the national debt and default on transfer payments. The US Treasury is manipulating the value of the dollar to gain a trade advantage. War is hell. Nope, for other nations throughout History, yes, but the “evil genius” Eurodollar system and Petrodollar systems combined are so powerful that nothing is going to replace it for decades still. There is simply no heir apparent to the US on the planet for quite a while. a couple large x1000 solar flares, arriving nearly concurrently will wipe out the electrical grid, and barter will become the means of exchange. happens every 6,000 years or so. The precision of so called “egyptian” vases, indicates they were made with computer controlled tooling and design. We haven’t found a 6,000 year old computer and none are likely to have survived. But we have the evidence of their use. History is cyclical, and the sun determines those cycles. Higher inflation will demand higher bond yields even if the Fed monetizes it. The deficit will go parabolic (already happening). Surely as the central banks increase the issuance of treasuries, and the price for treasures flatlines with excess supply, driving yields up mathematically? Though, yes, the market leads the process of rate rises, central banks follow not lead. It’s either a fast default (crash of the financial system) or a slow default (debasement of the financial system)… or expansion into space, where the potential for continual growth is galactic. [you can’t have inflation without credit expansion, price rises are not inflation]. The logic of a tumor: permanent growth. that requires the death of the host. Homes in the World’s Largest 3D-Printed Neighborhood Take One Week to Print. This Is What They Look Like https://www.xatakaon.com/robotics-and-ai/homes-in-the-worlds-largest-3d-printed-neighborhood-take-one-week-to-print-this-is-what-they-look-like Nice. Housing needs creative disruption . Housing just needs the government to get out of the way and allow the free market to work. Biden shoveled billions of taxpayer dollars to the banks so that they’d “prevent foreclosures” aka preemptive backdoor bailouts. The democrats also had four long years to attack the most obvious issue…institutional/corporate investors in residential real estate, and they did nothing. Sometimes it is not the government but NIMBY lawyers who don’t want apartment projects anywhere near them. Sort of seems like they meant to do so. Regardless, I agree it’s a mess, and “Free Markets” must be allowed to come back. How about when you want to remodel them? How does that pan out? https://www.ecohome.net/guides/3846/3d-printed-homes-is-this-the-future-of-residential-construction/ AI Bob Villa comes by and breaks out a wall or two, films a show, comes back in a couple a years with a new truck, and tidys up and shoots a commercial, by the time the grandchildren are graduating college, its all done … You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • Who Knew What When? In an attempt to show he was on top of things, Chinese president Xi claims to have been Fighting Virus Earlier Than Previously Reported . China’s Communist Party leader, Xi Jinping, issued internal orders about the coronavirus epidemic in early January, about two weeks before his first public remarks on the outbreak, according to a speech by Mr. Xi that was published Saturday. Is that believable? If so, that means the government hid concerns for two weeks. Either way it looks bad to me. #XiJinping admitted it is he who covered up the #COVID19 #coronavirus epidemic in #China . In a speech he made on Feb 3(full text in Chinese: https://t.co/U918GdPjCk ), he said he started overseeing the disease control campaign as early as Jan 7. #習近平 1月7號就知道 #武漢肺炎疫情 pic.twitter.com/065BYqJZPJ — Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports (@jenniferzeng97) February 15, 2020 Other News Headlines The U.S. says it will evacuate Americans from the cruise ship quarantined off Japan. France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe and its 12th case. China reports more than 2,000 new cases and 139 deaths, most in Hubei. Africa rushes to train health workers. Protests against coronavirus clinics spring up in Hong Kong. Many of the demonstrators, numbering in the hundreds, were dressed in black, the signature color of the city’s anti-government protests. At least two workers who helped build a new coronavirus hospital in 10 days are infected. China’s Banks Quarantine or Destroy Cash The central banking authorities of China are disinfecting, stashing and reportedly even destroying cash in an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said at a news conference on Saturday that the cash collected by commercial bank Cash collected from hospitals and food markets must be handled separately and disinfected before depositing the notes to the People’s Bank of China, Mr. Fan said. In severely hit regions, the collected cash must undergo ultraviolet or high-temperature disinfection and be stored for 14 days before going back to the market , he added. In less affected areas, the bank notes must be disinfected and stored for a week before use. A People’s Bank of China branch in the southern city of Guangzhou is even destroying bank notes that came from hospitals, food markets and public transportation, according to a report by Nanfang, a state-owned outlet in Guangdong Province. Family Death Cascade 湖北电影制片厂常凯(1964年生人）一家四口17天内死于 #新冠肺炎 。他的夫人也已染病。 #武汉肺炎 https://t.co/dr1d4H4hPC — Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports (@jenniferzeng97) February 15, 2020 Seven-Day Doubling My take: We’re seeing a 7-day doubling time on EX-China data. While the dataset is still small, the fact it’s doubling every 7 days is enough to make it clear a global pandemic all but assured. Remember, it’s early days ex-China, so most cases not detected because not tested. — Erik Townsend 🛢️ (@ErikSTownsend) February 14, 2020 Fear and Boredom on Cruise Ship About 1,000 tested, 285 infected. 2,700 still waiting … for something. “I can’t wrap my head around the fact that I could die from this cruise.” Fear and boredom reign on the Diamond Princess, a luxury ship under quarantine for coronavirus. https://t.co/AMjLeIWNt2 — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 15, 2020 Supply Chains It’s even bigger than that. We’re going to see very soon how dependent and exposed we all are to China. This might be the beginning of the end of out “China addiction” https://t.co/Z0UkkCWL9y https://t.co/X6HWJEnuMP — Rich Kleinbauer (@RMKOutFront) February 15, 2020 Medical Supplies https://twitter.com/FMarquises/status/1228674943858216960 Global Pandemic Likely Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely Thanks to Jennifer Zeng, @jenniferatntd for an excellent series of Tweets on the lies, coverups, and cell phone traps. https://t.co/y0s2ozrUVi — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 14, 2020 About Those Tests Dr. Anthony Facci was on Bloomberg radio this morning and said the rt-PCR tests were only ~40% sensitive, which I took to mean an unacceptably high rate of false negatives. That happened in CA already when a sick patient tested negative for nCoV and was released from quarantine — Gary Haubold (@GaryHaubold) February 14, 2020 WHO says China Bought the World Time This is a hoot: WHO says China Bought the World Time These hypocrites praise China for quarantines while condemning other countries for flight bans. It’s those flight bans that may have stopped the spread internationally. Mike “Mish” Shedlock In an attempt to show he was on top of things, Chinese president Xi claims to have been Fighting Virus Earlier Than Previously Reported . China’s Communist Party leader, Xi Jinping, issued internal orders about the coronavirus epidemic in early January, about two weeks before his first public remarks on the outbreak, according to a speech by Mr. Xi that was published Saturday. Is that believable? If so, that means the government hid concerns for two weeks. Either way it looks bad to me. #XiJinping admitted it is he who covered up the #COVID19 #coronavirus epidemic in #China . In a speech he made on Feb 3(full text in Chinese: https://t.co/U918GdPjCk ), he said he started overseeing the disease control campaign as early as Jan 7. #習近平 1月7號就知道 #武漢肺炎疫情 pic.twitter.com/065BYqJZPJ — Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports (@jenniferzeng97) February 15, 2020 Other News Headlines China’s Banks Quarantine or Destroy Cash The central banking authorities of China are disinfecting, stashing and reportedly even destroying cash in an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said at a news conference on Saturday that the cash collected by commercial bank Cash collected from hospitals and food markets must be handled separately and disinfected before depositing the notes to the People’s Bank of China, Mr. Fan said. In severely hit regions, the collected cash must undergo ultraviolet or high-temperature disinfection and be stored for 14 days before going back to the market , he added. In less affected areas, the bank notes must be disinfected and stored for a week before use. A People’s Bank of China branch in the southern city of Guangzhou is even destroying bank notes that came from hospitals, food markets and public transportation, according to a report by Nanfang, a state-owned outlet in Guangdong Province. Family Death Cascade 湖北电影制片厂常凯(1964年生人）一家四口17天内死于 #新冠肺炎 。他的夫人也已染病。 #武汉肺炎 https://t.co/dr1d4H4hPC — Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports (@jenniferzeng97) February 15, 2020 Seven-Day Doubling My take: We’re seeing a 7-day doubling time on EX-China data. While the dataset is still small, the fact it’s doubling every 7 days is enough to make it clear a global pandemic all but assured. Remember, it’s early days ex-China, so most cases not detected because not tested. — Erik Townsend 🛢️ (@ErikSTownsend) February 14, 2020 Fear and Boredom on Cruise Ship About 1,000 tested, 285 infected. 2,700 still waiting … for something. “I can’t wrap my head around the fact that I could die from this cruise.” Fear and boredom reign on the Diamond Princess, a luxury ship under quarantine for coronavirus. https://t.co/AMjLeIWNt2 — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 15, 2020 Supply Chains It’s even bigger than that. We’re going to see very soon how dependent and exposed we all are to China. This might be the beginning of the end of out “China addiction” https://t.co/Z0UkkCWL9y https://t.co/X6HWJEnuMP — Rich Kleinbauer (@RMKOutFront) February 15, 2020 Medical Supplies https://twitter.com/FMarquises/status/1228674943858216960 Global Pandemic Likely Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely Thanks to Jennifer Zeng, @jenniferatntd for an excellent series of Tweets on the lies, coverups, and cell phone traps. https://t.co/y0s2ozrUVi — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 14, 2020 About Those Tests Dr. Anthony Facci was on Bloomberg radio this morning and said the rt-PCR tests were only ~40% sensitive, which I took to mean an unacceptably high rate of false negatives. That happened in CA already when a sick patient tested negative for nCoV and was released from quarantine — Gary Haubold (@GaryHaubold) February 14, 2020 WHO says China Bought the World Time This is a hoot: WHO says China Bought the World Time These hypocrites praise China for quarantines while condemning other countries for flight bans. It’s those flight bans that may have stopped the spread internationally. Mike “Mish” Shedlock Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. “The central banking authorities of China are disinfecting, stashing and reportedly even destroying cash…” There too!!!??? When a frail 80 year old American tourist gets a heart attack on the flight to Cancun and then dies 2 weeks later in a Mexican hospital, does it count as a Mexican death? The case in France was an 80 year old Chinese man who got sick in China before arriving in France. It is immutable law that actions have consequences. Learning from consequences, being responsible for them, and changing how we act is the ONLY way humanity moves forward. My question to Xi Jinping: what exactly are you going to do about it? Besides sell us more cheap widgets? Noteworthy from the article and explaining why China will not let CDC, etc into the country is to control the narrative much as they punished Dr Li posting in a medical chat group warning other doctors to be wary and protect themselves. “Xi’s absence from this crisis is yet another demonstration that he doesn’t so much lead as he does command,” Mr Blanchette says. “He’s clearly worried that this crisis will blow up in his face, and so he’s pushed out underlings to be the public face of the CCP’s response.” Already there are signs that the censorship is being ratcheted up once again, with Mr Xi ordering senior officials to “strengthen the control over online media”. So the Diamond Princess acts as a control group for us, and nobody has died yet. 3,000 people from a wide range of backgrounds (passengers and crew). About 10-15% have caught the virus even with the isolation protocols in place. “Seventy new cases were confirmed on the cruise liner on Sunday according to Japan’s minister of health, labor and welfare, Katsunobu Kato, taking the number of cases on the ship over 350. “So far, we have conducted tests for 1,219 individuals. Of those, 355 people tested positive. Of those, 73 individuals are not showing symptoms,” Kato said.” If this disease is anything like as virulent as the chattering classes claim, then we should be seeing a mounting death toll over the next few weeks. In today’s news, there are seventy more cases on the cruise ship today, bringing it up to 355 infected, nearly 10% of the passengers. Also, there was a death in Tiawan, bringing the total deaths outside of China to 5. In other news in my opinion the amount of news is declining When governments decide that this is unstoppable will they just censor and let it run its course? “In other news in my opinion the amount of news is declining” In my opinion the amount of Coronavirus news is increasing and will continue to do so as this spreads. Govts are now acknowledging preparation plans. TOKYO – Japan is bracing for the coronavirus outbreak to worsen, as Health Minister Katsunobu Kato on Sunday (Feb16) pointed to several untraceable cases and an emergency government meeting of experts noted that the onset is likely only “at an early stage”. “We have to get our health system ready to face a possible pandemic propagation of the virus, and therefore the spreading of the virus across France.” @Roadrunner12 I truly hope you are right and I am completely wrong. While some govts are taking steps to prepare, no doubt politics will play a role. Particularly in the US with an election coming up, I am reminded of Nixon putting the election ahead of American lives in Vietnam. Is Trump more concerned with maintaining the elevated stock market and winning the election rather than American lives lost to a potential coronavirus pandemic???? Meanwhile our idiot PM in Canada, Im sure is more interested in photo ops than anything else and will only take steps when it bites him in the ass. I think that everything you (or I, or anyone) knows about what will happen in the election is completely wrong. The Coronavirus will decide the election. It almost certainly will escape in the US at some point prior to the election, and once it does, it will overwhelm all other issues. If Trump addresses it aggressively, and seeks unity in combating it, he is likely to win. If he tries to downplay it, he will surely lose. I agree that Coronavirus will escape into some point at time, not sure on timing. Trumps focus going into the election is propping up the stock market and using that as a measure of his last 4 years. Trumps attitude towards the Cornavirus thus far: I think the news is declining at the moment also, in the sense that we are into official announcement as distraction from detail. It is a bit like “forget the details, we are aware and in charge now” . Maybe just a lull because that happens when there is nothing dramatic to report, but I don’t find the critique that is deserved in msm, not on numbers, not on pathology, not on epidemiology re. China or the cruise ship even, not on Africa or other countries – all absent. This is information nescessary at this point to inform people properly imo , instead it is the slow motion disaster being presented after it unfolds, with enough uncertainty to keep people guessing but undecided, creating a fatalism that suits ineptitude, just enough to mesmerise and keep people there. OTOH maybe I am just particularly cynical today 🙂 . How much work loss is already baked into the cake? China’s new year was supposed to start around the 3rd week of January and last about 2 1/2 weeks. The quarantine is going into it’s fourth week on Monday. So far, they have lost an extra 3 days of work over quarantine vs new year. Red Army sending 25000 med workers to Wuhan, how ominous is that? It hints that many local med workers have gotten Cvirus, now time for human wave attack on virus by medics with questionable training. Good night Irene! Based on the theory that you can believe things based on what they do more than what they say, that tells you two things. One is that the situation in Wuhan continues to be out of control, despite the construction of the new hospitals. The other is that the situation is not out of control elsewhere, or these people would be needed in other provinces as well … and this, I suppose, explains the recent rise in Bitcoin. and gold is still asleep. Another common sense idea would be to do more frequent airliner air-conditioning maintenance. Due to long incubation period, there is scant chance to trace infection to a particular flight, hence there is no money in it. The order has to come from above. Some have a kind of electrostatic disinfection of the air system I think, and all use HEPA filters afaik, which is supposed to be quite stringent e.g. but it is everyday items that are difficult. The seat fabric, or the reverse side of a volume control, the passenger two rows down who sneezes into his hands then grabs the head support of the seat in front of you as he walks to the toilet and then vomits as he walks past you on the way back, that sort of thing I think. What is freaky is the diamond princess though, I don’t have a good explanation for that unless the virus is much more contagious than first thought or they messed up with the air system. Just now it is 70 more confirmed I think, which is not far off the hundred and something confirmed across the whole of China except Hubei. Just makes you wonder what is really going on in both, and elsewhere. Perhaps it’s an experiment and data is being collected but no participant informed they are being used as a lab rat? It was certainly serendipitous for the WHO to have a ship full of people in close quarters. Of course what we dont know is whether this virus is really working its way around the ship or just through the cabins of those already infected. At least some of the cabins are family ones with 3-5 people in them. …or there are many thousands infected outside Hubei. When I try to picture how so many became infected on the ship in the space of about ten days till quarantine by one passenger it doesn’t add up. After quarantine a few more, maybe double the number, but still that is almost two hundred before. So it is odd, maybe incubation is much longer and transmission occurs often during that , or there was a “super-spreader” amongst the guests and not the original patient, or it is just very contagious and survives in air over a long distance…etc. The reliability of tests is odd also, maybe a long low level incubation that doesn’t register is a possibility. I don’t know. Not to rush with announcing a public scare makes sense; there is always an element of uncertainty. But it won’t matter as common sense is in short supply at this point. Look what’s happening officially in your neighborhood. Nothing, and that’s after the confirmed pandemic outbreak. At this point quarantining cash is a commendable action, but hopefully won’t lead to banning cash. Many have wondered if it would go back to barter. Can you imagine if linen cash was too risky? Gold and silver might come back big. If that’s the case there will be plenty, and plunder too. Arrrrghhh….. Dystopiamare : Everyone must be permanently tracked to trace infection. Supply breakdown leads to government command of economy with rationing, where government credit is the only access to by now restricted resources. Cash gets banned and you get a tattoo to be part of the system. Hillary Clinton becomes presidenta. People vote for the above. So solly. Vilus spill vely bad. All die. Amelicans must make for self if still alive. So solly. Jerk! The chinks did the best they can. Hope this bug loses speed. Mutate or die. Exactly. Regardless of what mistakes were made earlier in the outbreak, the Chinese are like Leonidas and his Spartans at this point. Nothing that is done in the West will come close to the tough decisions that have been made in China. They can’t win the media battle. We criticise them for not taking action, on the other we criticise them for tough quarantine. We accuse them of making up numbers, even though there is no evidence that there has been deliberate subterfuge. We invent rumours (body burnings, empty apartments) that, strangely, don’t get officially fact checked, unlike every pronouncement by conservative politicians. There is literally no chance that western governments would have the political courage to take the necessary actions that China has, destroying its own economy. As for the cash quarantine, this smells like desperation but does have some scientific evidence behind it. I have a picture in my head of exhausted CCP officials say around a table , head in hands, with Xi asking if anybody can think of ANYTHING that hasn’t been tried. The last video from David Abel on the diamond princess and he was pretty much at his limits with UK not doing anything for them. I don’t know if he is expat or what, but my experience as expat has been just that, they literally don’t reply if you ask anything beyond standard service, not embassies not whitehall and everything between. Abroad there is little you can do and they know that, but it does open a window on how they work and think (or not work and not think maybe) in the civil service, their priorities are usually somewhere else nowadays. So the day they have to take on the whole audience and not for show, well I’m not sure they will make it through the crowd to the podium they are so far behind, if they even wanted to. So in the west it will be reliant on civil cooperation by the public, which actually is maybe better than having the military on the street, but if it drags on and leads to unrest well I don’t think they would hesitate too much in reply. So different way around it, less proactive (they could screen/quarantine passengers from now if they wanted for example, national border national cause) and waiting till so difficult that they are seen to be fully justified or needed. The term ‘filthy lucre’ has sprung back into relevance. 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• • • Hooray for Hollywood! New National Security Threat Just when you thought national security threats could not get any stupider … Trump says Hollywood ‘dying’; orders 100% tariff on non-US movies to save it U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the country, saying the U.S. movie industry was dying a “very fast death” due to the incentives that other countries were offering to draw American filmmakers. “This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump said he was authorizing the relevant U.S. government agencies such as the Department of Commerce to immediately begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad that are then sent into the United States. Trump added: “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick posting on X said: “We’re on it.” Neither Lutnick nor Trump provided any details on how the tariffs would be implemented. Trump appointed three Hollywood veterans Jon Voight, Sylvester Stallone and Mel Gibson, in January, to bring Hollywood back “bigger, better and stronger than ever before.” Film and television production in Los Angeles has fallen by nearly 40% over the last decade, according to FilmLA, a non-profit that tracks the region’s production. Governments around the world have offered more generous tax credits and cash rebates to lure productions, and capture a greater share of the $248 billion that Ampere Analysis predicts will be spent globally in 2025 to produce content. Former senior Commerce official William Reinsch, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said retaliation against Trump’s foreign movie tariffs would be devastating. “The retaliation will kill our industry. We have a lot more to lose than to gain,” he said, adding that it would be difficult to make a national security or national emergency case for movies. Hooray! Higher Prices for Movies Higher prices for shoes, clothes, lawn mowers, underwear, steel, aluminum, cars, trucks, and now movies. Who wouldn’t want that? Related Posts May 4, 2025: Would You Pay $15,000 for this Nice-Looking EV Toyota? Zoomers? I am sure many would say yes, but there’s a catch. April 14, 2025: Trump’s Plan to Make Manufacturing Great Again in Pictures The share of manufacturing employment keeps declining. What role did NAFTA play? Also note Consumers Face End of De Minimis Tariff Exemptions on $800 Packages The trade provision that allows consumers and resellers to avoid duties on shipments worth $800 or less is ending for products made in China. Hooray!? 40% to 100% Higher Prices Who wants that? (Exclusions for cultist parrots who cannot think). The idea we are going to bring shoe or clothes manufacturing back to the US (or that we would like the price result if we did) is of course ludicrous. New National Security Threat Just when you thought national security threats could not get any stupider … Trump says Hollywood ‘dying’; orders 100% tariff on non-US movies to save it U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the country, saying the U.S. movie industry was dying a “very fast death” due to the incentives that other countries were offering to draw American filmmakers. “This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump said he was authorizing the relevant U.S. government agencies such as the Department of Commerce to immediately begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad that are then sent into the United States. Trump added: “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick posting on X said: “We’re on it.” Neither Lutnick nor Trump provided any details on how the tariffs would be implemented. Trump appointed three Hollywood veterans Jon Voight, Sylvester Stallone and Mel Gibson, in January, to bring Hollywood back “bigger, better and stronger than ever before.” Film and television production in Los Angeles has fallen by nearly 40% over the last decade, according to FilmLA, a non-profit that tracks the region’s production. Governments around the world have offered more generous tax credits and cash rebates to lure productions, and capture a greater share of the $248 billion that Ampere Analysis predicts will be spent globally in 2025 to produce content. Former senior Commerce official William Reinsch, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said retaliation against Trump’s foreign movie tariffs would be devastating. “The retaliation will kill our industry. We have a lot more to lose than to gain,” he said, adding that it would be difficult to make a national security or national emergency case for movies. Hooray! Higher Prices for Movies Higher prices for shoes, clothes, lawn mowers, underwear, steel, aluminum, cars, trucks, and now movies. Who wouldn’t want that? Related Posts May 4, 2025: Would You Pay $15,000 for this Nice-Looking EV Toyota? Zoomers? I am sure many would say yes, but there’s a catch. April 14, 2025: Trump’s Plan to Make Manufacturing Great Again in Pictures The share of manufacturing employment keeps declining. What role did NAFTA play? Also note Consumers Face End of De Minimis Tariff Exemptions on $800 Packages The trade provision that allows consumers and resellers to avoid duties on shipments worth $800 or less is ending for products made in China. Hooray!? 40% to 100% Higher Prices Who wants that? (Exclusions for cultist parrots who cannot think). The idea we are going to bring shoe or clothes manufacturing back to the US (or that we would like the price result if we did) is of course ludicrous. Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. This is reminiscent of the ’70s which was a response to the bloated movies of the ’60s. movies like Dr Dolittle almost killed studios. then we got a raft of smaller cheaper movies that were quite excellent like the French Connection. It wasn’t until Jaws that Hollywood got interested in the big mega Blockbusters. movie making is so fractured now it’s like journalism. no single source of moderation and all you need is a high-end computer to edit these digital movies. the result is a massive glut of movies ranging from truly awful to decent. Hollywood will take care of junk like the Avengers but even MGM couldn’t bear the weight of making another James Bond movie for near a billion dollars. It’s too bad but California and Hollywood have totally blown it when it comes to movie production. Most of them deserve it and after the fires the city is in real dire straits now The lesson of On Golden Pond was lost on Hollywood. Just make a really good movie that people enjoy. Will cowboy movies make a comeback? Headline April 15 in The Hollywood Reporter: Hollywood At Risk of Becoming the “Next Detroit Auto.” L.A. Production Insiders Voice Alarm Who wants more unemployed Americans? Unemployed Americans can’t particularly afford even low prices. Haven’t been to a movie since before Covid. Hollywood hasn’t recovered from the long strike two years ago. Unions created a self inflicted wound. Studios aren’t particularly profiting from streaming channels, other than Netflix. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/post-production-los-angeles-music-tax-incentives-1236190752/?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us Photo of Hollywood sign from next to Paramount Studios, on Gower, which was once the entrance to Desilu Studios. On the other side of the hill, directly behind the sign, Walt Disney Studios. AI was going to kill Hollywood, at least in its current form. In a few years, you’ll be able to write something, dump it into a prompt and create your own TV series or movies. I am already creating my own artwork and songs with AI, movies are the next thing to fall. You can also create books with AI, i tried it and it’s scary. “…I am already creating my own artwork and songs…” Which is tantamount to saying you don’t have any creativity. BTW, I have published six books (all without AI, except for one cover which combined a dozen AI images out of hundreds, and lots of editing on my part). I also made a three-minute video using AI-generated images and video clips to market one of the books.The extent of my creativity was to combine the imagery/video clips with music and voice over. BTW, I find your use of ‘dumping’ offensive. Most Hollywood movies look like they’ve been made with regurgitated scripts anyway. Only the names are changed to protect their paycheques. movies have always been art by committee. its the nature of the effort that requires many parties to produce the final product. Even Chaplin had input from trusted parties and he was a bit of a perfectionist. Damn fine movies though. Hollywood could sure use a couple Chaplins right now… AI music sucks. Have heard it. It’s like if Katy Perry got dumber than she already is, wrote a song worse than she already does and posted it. Finally, Trump has done something smart. He’s drawn attention to the lack of creativity in Hollywood, and its goal of ramming down a social/political agenda. How to ‘fix’ Hollywood? 1) Get rid of the Screenwriters Guild. 2) Enable greater (not less) competition in the industry What a freakin’ idiot. Movies are basically a digital good nowadays, essentially treated like a service. Gawd help the US economy if other countries start retaliating by imposing tariffs on US digital products and services. Besides maybe agricultural commodities, that’s the one thing we are actually competitive in. The magnificent 7 can kiss their earnings goodbye. BTW, various US states and localities provide tax incentives to the film industry to shoot locally… just in case the Orange fool doesn’t know. Just randomly throw sand in the gears, and threats in all directions, and we’ll all get richer. It’s so simple. This is getting further and further from Hayek — liberty — to centralized price-setting which is a proven disaster. And the price-setter is about as clueless as one could imagine, on top of it. When has he bought a movie ticket or even groceries, or bothered to read through a report of major indicators? He looks at a few cherry-picked numbers (trade deficit) and decides to arm-twist all kinds of things.I can’t see how he ever got through Wharton. There should also be a 100 tariff on foreign players in the NFL and NBA … those foreigners have a devastating effect in those leagues, especially in the NBA. There is no need to tariff foreign soccer players because Americans don’t know how to play soccer. LETS DECLARE TARIFF, AND THEN TRY FIGURE OUT what todo! Jesus!!!!! biden/Harris look more and more better! and i am not even talking about clinton/obama. those were pretty much geniuses from 2025! Marxism does not look good at all. Fron the reaction this morning from Hollywood, he’s wrong. I mean he should listen to the industry he is supposedly interested in saving. many films by US studios are stories taking place in other countries, and they are filmed in those other countries. he should leave it to the states to decide how to deal with issues. If LA is worried about losing the film industry it can roll back taxes and regs to make it more affordable. it’s not a federal issue. The high cost of making a movie in Hollywood is one of the reasons why the industry has studios in other parts of the US. You’re partially correct about movies filmed in locations outside the US. However, the pre- and post-production stuff is a major part of the cost. Given the union cost, regulation, and risk of failure, Hollywood execs have little choice but to look for low cost alternatives. ere’s Wall Street’s response (courtesy of Bloomberg): Barclays ==== you would think IF NORMAL STABLE PERSON WHO WANTS to change something , to make it better, would do some consultations w/in industry, seek upstream/downstream discussion. ====== or no. !! FOR STABLE GENIUS disguised as president IT IS TOO HARD. LETS DECLARE TARIFF, AND THEN TRY FIGURE OUT what todo! Jesus!!!!! biden/Harris look more and more better! and i am not even talking about clinton/obama. those were pretty much geniuses from 2025! alx You have a problem with ‘tossing out an idea’ to see reaction? When is the first monthly CPI MAGA-MEGA-Delta Increase coming? Movies have always been a national security threat,hence the “Hays Office”. If the internet has taught us anything, it is that people are easily influenced. The Hays office made sure that the influence wasn’t immoral,obscene or puerile. If Red China owns the eyeballs of movie goers, Chairman Mao will be glorified, first subtly, then with a sledgehammer. See “Hero” (2002) for a taste of the brainwashing. it’ fiction. the governmetn should not be in the business of controlling fictional stories. not to mention, plenty of US films are US propaganda. you make my point my disagreeing with my point by supporting my point. If you want to see ‘brainwashing,’ look for ‘good triumphs over evil.’ People actually believe it, so they never realize ‘evil’ is right there in front of them. without bitter we would not recognize sweet, nature/god often provides a duality to balance the world. Evil exists that we might recognize good. Surely just because evil exists, we should not glorify it? It is not propaganda to desire that good triumph over evil. I sympathize with the criticisms but what would really be helpful if economically literate people or politicians come up with a framework that can solve the trade issue correctly. I know that running fiscal deficits contribute to this, I believe up until we went off the gold standard we were running trade surplus’s. However there must be a more competent way of dealing with foreign govt subsidies to undercut US prices on products .Many of the products they sell here are much more expensive in China. Also why did we ever allow the Chinese to steal our IP? We gave them the rope to hang us with. I would like to hear some constructive suggestions on a framework for fixing this problem. Maybe Mish could give us a bullet point plan. We went off of the gold standard on Sunday August 15, 1971, over six years after the start of the Vietnam war buildup. As I recall at the time, France and then other countries lost confidence in the US ability to continue to redeem gold at $35 US an ounce and began to cash in its official holdings of $US for gold prior to the closing of the gold window. But as late as June 1973, I could still by regular gas for less than 30 cents a gallon in the western suburbs of Detroit. Inflation took off after the start of the Arab oil embargo in October 1973. be helpful if economically literate people or politicians come up with a framework that can solve the trade issue correctly. == USA is too much of empire!! cut war bases. 90% gone cut DOD (= defense) budget , at least 50% . it would still more than Russia-china-Iran combined ( and n. korea too) stop being policemen for whole world. USA does not have any enemies,.outside drugs from mexico. that would start, probably upto 1 trln in yearly savings ======= then, fix monopolism inside USA fix health care, 4 banks control all 2-3 companies (blacklrock, etc) control all passive money 4 companies controls media etc alx Egg foo yung for Chairman Mao. Do all that you suggest and you still have NOT fixed the trade issue. To succeed in free trade, and not just survive, a country needs a competitive advantage. Maybe list those for the USA as a starting point. For example… the US has 1) an efficient and effective government 2) an education system generating graduates capable of critical thinking, motivated to work hard, and ready to innovate 3) an effective financial system providing a market-generated cost of capital relative to risk. 4) a taxation system that encourages productivity and punishes dependence NOT! “A very fast death” like all those media companies that were “Dying” in 2017 and are still getting about the same ratings today. He is only speaking to the idiots among us. The problem is, his audience is unfathomably large. Who cares? No one watches movies anymore. They killed the movie industry with all their woke crap and self congratulatory awards. Just like the MSM, when the product sucks people will move on to better forms of entertainment. RIP Hollywood. If your statement is true then why tariff a product that sucks and no one is watching? Posturing. it seems the strategy is to trigger, the easily triggered (which one can see here on a daily basis, imagine the real world..) thus pulling their miniscule attention spans away from anything worth actual inquiry and debate. or for those logically challenged, its a “look over there squirrel !!!!” thats seems to get them every time.. Idk This Zero Hedge headline might explain it: Rabobank: The Foreign Film Tax Reads Like A Tax On Wealthy Democrats It’s easy? It makes the industry less competitive in the long run? You anticipate support from said industry? You really don’t understand what you’re doing….. I still watch lots of movies, just not at movie houses. I am disappointed that more movies have not been released in 4K versions to take full advantage of my 4K player and 4K TV. just get 2k eyeballs, you won’t even notice the difference. I stopped at 1080p and I’m quite happy. I pay more attention to the qualities of the plot, than the quality of the image. sometimes you have to go to 480p to watch some rare old films, so be it.. that boy ain’t right in the head “Foreign Lands”? Lol. Another midnight post? The dems imported twenty million illegal immigrants – built a bridge to the world – for their illegal votes, which will seal the uniparty as the only party, to save our democracy. The dems were bursting at the seams, like an inflated soccer ball bursting at the seams. It’s useless. U can’t glue it. Pump air and u get a woush. Don’t blame Trump for kicking the dems ball. Portugal deports 20K illegals. The EU want to produce more internally. EuroArabia and Canada problems are growing. NATO cannot save them. China might be bursting at the seams. Why not claim it was 50mm illegals? That’s a much bigger number, backed by no more hot air than your claim. Quite soon, maybe this week, SMART PHONES MADE ANYWHERE ELSE, and PC’s and TABLETS will have an added 1,000% tariff. How’s that for a new BEAUTIFUL TARIFF REGIME. And, even Hardware made in AMERICA will be taxed and paid by US. What a BEAUTIFUL TIME TO BE ALIVE. I am waiting, however, for the next 911. You just HAVE TO KNOW that a FALSE FLAG OP is being planned! And, BOMBS will now have TARIFFS! EVEN MADE HERE! We are gonna be RICH! fewer tablets and smartphones, would a smarter nation make. If it takes economic pressure to get people to act in their own interest, then so be it. As the average american inflates to obesity (current rate is 41% of americans) something must occur to trigger in their sugar addled brains, that life is more than a screen and a trough of corn syrup. Digital goods aren’t really subject to any tariff or pricing schemes. You can download everything on peer to peer networks from the famous Swedish website that shall not be named here. But to avoid higher prices for shoes, clothes, lawn mowers, underwear, steel, aluminum, cars, and trucks, just move to where you don’t have psycho leadership. This will become a recurring theme for many until the light goes on, move to where you are treated best. Only 1356 more days of Trump crazy left then we switch to woke crazy. Sadly I find the Trump crazy more entertaining than the Woke crazy. Norway… its next to Sweden, but has less 3rd world immigrants.. The Innovation and Technology party, formerly The Pirate Party is a Norwegian political party which was founded in 2012. Its basic principles are “full transparency in state management, privacy on the internet, as well as better use of IT and technology to make a better democracy” I concur, if you don’t like America, and are driven by only the price of consumer goods, it would be best for the USA and her peoples, if the malcontents and price obsessed move to foreign shores and allow this nation to continue rebuilding with a supportive population. Agreed. Have at it, follow in the footsteps of the central planning giants of Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. I’ll be watching from afar living it up. as you should… the MAGA cult of lumpenproles in amerika are begging to be clubbed like baby seals. this has occurred in world history before. you TDS is calling you to commit crimes of violence against your fellow citizens, perhaps it is best to continue the medication and understand everything is not a plot against you.. If you are in favor of “Beautiful Tariffs” – – then you are a stupid MAGA type. I do not vote, so BOTH sides sound Inane. “Lack of VITAMIN K” (Kamala, lacking brains) was not a choice. Voting for Mr T was “Better” but he left behind his business SENSE, if he had Any – – and he went bankrupt and ran up huge debts as a Builder – – then this shit would not be going on@ Trump could have made FAR better choices: 1) stick with DOGE. 2) Reduce inflation! 3) Deal with Homelessness. 4) Put IMMIGRATION CONTROLS IN and deport ONLY criminals and fast-track Illegals with workable solutions so we do not run low on available labor from other countries. BUT, NoooOOOOooo! He started with TAXING US! you didn’t vote..but complain. thats like not cooking, but you hate the meal. nobody’s fault but yours. Next thing is that Trump will declare himself a living god. I guess that’s how it feels like when you live in a place like North Korea. the fear is palpable. so many must rein in their inner demons. what country has the most guns in the hands of its citizens? what are the actual chances of Trump becoming emperor god king of America? find another focus for your obsession, its driving you mad. And bend your knee to the God King Trump. A French distribution vet posited: “He will kill the U.S. industry quicker as this will increase the cost of U.S. films that already weren’t selling well internationally. Creating an incentive for shooting in the U.S. would have been smarter but I’m not sure he has that much intelligence.” Deadline. US films don’t sell well internationally, due to content. the mandatory, lesbian, trans, homosexual and people of colours in every film, no matter if its a documentary on Amish or a historical drama, has killed story telling on film All the distribution in the world, cannot force people to watch deranged swill from equity obsessed studios. The American film industry has committed suicide before our eyes. Fortunately over a hundred years of film archives exist of proven well told, enjoyable films. Mine the archives until the madness passes and we bury Hollywood and wait for new growth from the ashes. US films DO sell well internationally, what are you talking about?? Blockbusters in the US are global blockbusters, and the smaller artsy films often do better abroad than here. right enjoy your Marvel pap.. try watching the academy award winners from 1937 or 1939. Trump is consistent. SchroedingerTalk is erratic. If our next president will be a dem all our movies will be produced in Bollywood India. Shekhar Kapur is against Trump. Take your meds Trump’s Tariffs Are Lifting Some U.S. Manufacturers Levies on imports are giving early boosts to some American factorieshttps://archive.is/20250504095647/https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trumps-tariffs-are-lifting-some-u-s-manufacturers-06b4c6e1#selection-1909.0-1913.68 Surprise! Trump was talking about himself … when he said “the enemy is within”. – Hooray for Hollywood! > We shall see, as they will have to work for it, but will they be willing to do so is the far bigger question, isn’t it? – U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the country, saying the U.S. movie industry was dying a “very fast death” > Trump is 100% Correct! The “Movie Industry” is dying a “very fast death” when is the last time You saw a “Decent Movie” at the box office? When is the last time You we’re even at the box office. – “This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda,” > Trump is 100% Correct Again! Trump has waged a massive campaign, and with Total Support from American Citizens too! It is against what America doesn’t stand for as a Country, and as People. The Racist crap has to stop, the Manipulation and Deception in the MSM has to stop. So does the messaging from Countries like the UK and England, as two of many examples. Trump washed DEI as well as other unfair practices, out of our way of life, thank goodness, but other Countries and Organizations Desire It, as it’s extremely profitable for them! Not good for America, but they don’t care about America obviously. NATO is yet another Propaganda Arm, trying to pull America into its grasp. They also could care less about America, well except for Our $$$ (Digital Currency) is there Goal! So No they do not have any interest of Ours In Mind in the least… – Trump said he was authorizing the relevant U.S. government agencies such as the Department of Commerce to immediately begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad that are then sent into the United States. > There are very few places or sets that can’t be done in America. Why ship the money producing events to other Countries, when we have Our Own Country to care about. They can do there Movies where they live, and we can too… – Neither Lutnick nor Trump provided any details on how the tariffs would be implemented. > They may not be at all. He may be seeing if Hollywood Cares Enough to jump on His Bandwagon, and if not, then “Out to Pasture” for good perhaps, for them. You make your bed, you sleep in it. Trump will NOT help those that Do Not wish for Help (See Zelensky). – Trump appointed three Hollywood veterans Jon Voight, Sylvester Stallone and Mel Gibson, in January, to bring Hollywood back “bigger, better and stronger than ever before.” > In typical Trump Fashion, He backed up His Words, and appointed people in the know, to get this done!! Good for Trump! I Hope Hollywood plays ball… – Hooray! Higher Prices for Movies > ONLY if Americans are stupid enough to pay for it. They come down in cost, and the $248 Billion Industry takes a Hit!! OR WE DON’T GO. – Higher prices for shoes, clothes, lawn mowers, underwear, steel, aluminum, cars, trucks, and now movies. > Sad you had to go there… yet again! – Who wouldn’t want that? > Who said (with proof) that we are going to in fact get that? Looks like you are just as mentally ill as Trump. Why? Because I’m a realist? Are you against America? Do you not like it, when Your Countries President, stands up for your Country’s Citizens? Do you like having your Citizens TAX $$$ spent on Non-Citizens? Where is your Proof, that President Trump, and I are “Mentally Ill” Did you just Make That Up? What else do you “Make Up” when you’re pretending about things? I am at least Authentic, and Consistent and that appears as something that You will never be… Sadly, you are a shrinking minority. Liberal mind control has taken over Mish Talk. The absence of critical thinking was very evident in the lead-up to the election. There is also buyers’ remorse, but mostly negative mass media continues to drive opinion. Obama ran with Hope and Change. One could only hope for change–there wasn’t any change of significance. At least Trump is trying to change a situation doomed to failure. Movie theater prices are higher for a number of reasons, 1st of which is less people attending films at theaters. Home screens are larger, and sound systems as well, the more well to do movie buff, at this point, owns a home theater, which provides clean bathrooms, no lines, no parking, sensibly priced snacks, always fresh, as well as a plethora of favorite beverages and the management will pause the film for potty breaks and rewind and rewatch a scene to clarify details or just enjoy a great scene one more time. Theaters were a product of the technology of their time. Most people didn’t have room or the technology to watch movies at home. 100 years later they do now have the abilities and the means to enjoy home theatres. I have not been in a theatre since early 2000’s. I’m told they are infested with cell phones, people talking loudly, and exhibiting poor public manners as well as occasional fights and gunfire. To sell anything and especially overpriced anythings, one must guarantee a pleasant and enjoyable experience. basic business 101. fail this and your business fails.. I do agree. I also do Love A Good Movie at the Cinema!! I know countless others that do as well. I would happily pay a premium for it too! Problem is the crowd I speak about (Older), is not represented much in Hollywood, so I agree that my flat screens are just fine. “If and When” they ever start producing good movies again, on the Big Screen, I will be there!!! Hollywood is a Me-Too industry. With one success, others copy. Endless franchise spinoffs…. Add in a political agenda, and the result is exactly as expected. If you don’t fit in, you don’t survive. Outsiders do not get access to the theater chains. My feature film, ‘Mother Trucker’ will never see a theater, even though she kicks butt, crashes police blockades, saves puppies, and raises a family of randy Bonobo monkeys. So, the failure belongs to Hollywood. Tariffs simply reduce the competition and encourage more of the same Me-Too crap. The net drove audience away from main stream Cinema, with its variety on offer.. We have not seen a great USA Created Film in quite a long time. We will not miss them. Ah yes, your blanket absolutism painting with the broadest brush available. You MUST be 100% correct! try the “wild robot”. you may be pleasantly surprised. As an Australian I find this quite hilarious. The American film industry is amazingly successful, especially in the English speak world. But it is so successful that is readily spreads to non English speaking countries. Though in a way Trump is right. We in Australia do have “unfair trade” rules here. We have a bunch of subsidies for locally produced content and a rules and requirement requiring a minimum amount of local content. However despite all this most local content is still mediocre. And US content is significantly better. Honestly Trump can tariff away. You are just making life harder for US content creators. You are correct, Sir. He could have started on REAL problems with REAL solutions. BUT NoooooOOOOOOooo! He begins with Taxing us! Trump is economically illiterate, and proves it every day You need more shrimp on the barbie, mate! or more barbie on the “shrimp” if you know what I mean.. US content is a really low bar. Production value is state of the art though. the kakistocracy is in full frontal exposure. this clown needs to go. The Emperor has no film subsidies, the long awaited to sequel to The Emperor has no clothes, which involved an invasion of killer moths from a lab in Wuhan, that left the world naked, confused, and angry. Will there ever come a day when we can turn on a TV news program and there isn’t any mention of Trump? Legacy media would be dead without Trump. It does make for some entertainment value. Trump makes me LOL at times. The distinction is that 1/2 of the time I am laughing WITH HIM and other half: AT him! You would have to ask the TV News Programs: “Would you survive without Trump”. There is your answer, so No it won’t stop… Yeah about 10 years after he’s dead maybe for one day. The news Media LIVES/FEEDS off of CONTROVERSIES. Death. Weather. Politics is WAY too covered and it bores me to death. I wish it would stop and that TRUMPCO and the rest of Government would get to FUCKING WORK! when zion don dies, his cult will form a new religion. perhaps grow larger than mormons and muslims and christians……..in the next few thousand years. trump tower the new vatican city. Mike Lindell 2028 /s the mind is a terrible thing to waste. when we focus on our fears, they own our thoughts. Perhaps welcome more useful thoughts into your mind, you might be surprized at how your life changes. That is why he photoshopped the Popey hat! He’ll probably pull a Fatal Attraction! “Higher prices for shoes, clothes, lawn mowers, underwear, steel, aluminum, cars, trucks, and now movies. Who wouldn’t want that?” Who wouldn’t want that?” This is called WINNING! THE CONSEQUENCES OF COLLECTIVE SELF-DELUSION As some readers will know, I recently chose to use a period of necessary travel to isolate myself, for a space, from all forms of purported “news” and “information”. It is something that I can heartily recommend to anyone, even if it involves just a few hours spent fishing at a place where no fish are to be found. During this period of reflection, I gained a much clearer perspective on how a chapter of instability masquerading as “modernity” will end, even if the basics – the unfolding failures of money and technology – were already apparent. Whilst our understanding of these basics will continue to improve, the task now is to strengthen the correlation between the calculated and the experienced. What is particularly striking is the contrast between the abundant evidence of economic contraction and a near-universal refusal to accept this reality. In practical terms, this means that “modernity” will end, not gradually, but very rapidly indeed. 1 When we once stand aside from the slings and arrows of outrageous narrative , it quickly becomes clear that the fundamentals in our economic and broader predicament are comparatively few in number. The first is that growth in global material economic prosperity has been decelerating relentlessly towards contraction , a process that we are utterly powerless to prevent. Equally, there is, at the collective level, an absolute refusal to accept this reality , or to prepare to manage its consequences in practical and constructive ways. Economic inflexion has become something ‘ almost everywhere experienced, but almost nowhere admitted ’. Instead, we have been invited to swallow ideas that even Lewis Carroll’s White Queen – who prided herself on her ability to believe “at least six impossible things before breakfast” – would have found wholly indigestible. Chief amongst these notions are the beliefs that we can spend our way to prosperity , borrow our way to solvency , and innovate our way past material limitations demarcated by the planet’s resources and the laws of physics. Our specific ‘remedies’ for the ending and reversal of growth are monetary innovation and technological advance. Such propositions disregard the facts, which are that money commands value only as an exchangeable claim on the material, and that the potential scope of technology is bounded by the limits of physical possibility . 2 These considerations define two of the greatest shocks that we will encounter as reality refuses to submit to the imperatives of wishful thinking. Bluntly stated, the financial system will crash into cascading defaults and runaway inflation, whilst technology will fail to deliver on the unrealistic expectations vested in it. Both of these failures are already unfolding . Debts and quasi-debts are expanding at wholly unsustainable rates, whilst the activities that we term “tech” are trapped in a relentless process of diminishing returns. The latter involves investing ever more to deliver ever less, a trend that is unlikely to be changed by a version of AI which is customarily assessed on the basis of what it can accomplish rather than what it can deliver . The public is caught up in this process of denied inflexion , which is why, over the past year, incumbencies have lost ground, or been ousted from power altogether, in countries as diverse as Britain, America, India, Japan, Germany and France. The Canadian administration would doubtless have gone the same way, had the Liberals not replaced an unpopular leader, and ridden the tide of resentment unleashed by Mr Trump’s tariffs and territorial tantrums. Essentially, the problems of government are a compulsion, knowingly or not, to promise a prosperity, and a continuity, that cannot be delivered. The public, for the most part, seems to believe that all and more of the benefits of growth are being skimmed off by an already super-wealthy minority. The underlying reality – which might come as scant comfort to a discontented majority – is that the economy has started to contract, and that the much-publicised gains of the elites exist only in a paper form which is GTC (“good till cancelled”) by the looming financial crisis. In these conditions, cherished notions will be invalidated just as surely as existing systems will fail. Far from being the highest possible iteration of the human project, a post-capitalist economic model, powered by consumerism and dominated by multinational corporations, is nearing its end. A further denied truth , visible everywhere but admitted nowhere, is that of nations and societies scrapping over decreasing resources. None of this is to say that better outcomes are impossible, but ‘better’ can no longer mean an extrapolatory ‘more of the same’ now that less has become the irreversible tendency of the economy . 3 – https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/05/05/302-at-the-end-of-modernity-part-one/ Gobbledygook I don’t usually read through such long comments but this was worthwhile – a thought provoker. I see Doug 78 displays again his dislike of anything requiring putting a few brain cells to work but I enjoy the comments section for the opposing views. Tim Morgan was head of research for https://tpicap.com/tullettprebon/ so worth listening to… Tullett Prebon is a broker in the wholesale financial, energy, and commodities markets. We are a TP ICAP Group company. Our role is to facilitate trading for commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, buy-side institutions, corporates and trading houses. As one of the largest inter-dealer brokers in the world, we cover all major asset classes including global fixed income securities, money markets, capital markets, equities, credit, and associated derivatives products. In energy and commodities, we again cover all major asset classes including power, gas, renewable energy credit, and liquified natural gas (LNG). We have offices in 24 countries and operate voice, hybrid, electronic, volume matching, algorithmic matching, and risk mitigation platforms. The clown calling this gobbledeegook is clearly operating with an IQ that is equivalent to room temperature… so his comment is understandable. The thing is … if you step back and look at what is going on … something fundamental has changed… we are most definitely on the cusp of a massive and likely permanent collapse empires come and go. study anthropology for a few years. human primate history for the past 50,000 years is an eye opener. if we go out further back, and hence forward, this planet is just a rock flying around which ends when the sun flames out. actually it can end in a number of ways, but the most common is the sun flaring up, not flaming out. examine the 6k & 12k cycles of coronal mass ejections, it helps explain the ice ages as well as the lack of history of previous civilizations beyond Gobekli Tepe The world is frequently cleansed by fire and ice and there is litle we can do but watch. The TL:DR from your two posts of well over 1,000 words can save your reader 99% of their time: “ we are most definitely on the cusp of a massive and likely permanent collapse” Same argument as most are making, anyway. Not so fast Fast Eddy. Gobbledygook often comes from large brokers because their job is to sell and not to predict so they have to come up with something almost every day and it often comes out as gobbledygook. You are talking to someone who knows that market well and I have even written some of this gobbledygook myself so I know what I am talking about. It certainly impresses the easily impressed which is why it works on you. It’s a selling tool. Well John it is because I have read so many bullshit reports in my life I learned to spot them early. Everything said there could have been said in one paragraph but the author had to stretch it out with verbosity till it meant nothing. “the much-publicized gains of the elites exist only in a paper form which is GTC (“good till cancelled”) by the looming financial crisis” So your average billionaire loses 50% or even 75% now he’s just a multi-millionaire, who could live on that? Your audience cannot possibly misunderstand a word of this terse set of unbreakable truths Brevity is not just the soul of wit, it is also of great help in communicating ideas effectively. basically what you are saying is, “what can’t go on, won’t go on.” while true and self evident, the world is doing all it can to hide this fact via mass media and illusions. More and less are relative terms, what is important is not the quantities of a given element, but the qualities of these elements and which ones shall we give a higher status in our desires and our lives? More cell phones? or more love? More discussion, or more screaming past each other? More corn syrup and sloth, or more activity and a varied diet. our choices have consequences, we build our world around us with our choices. There is indeed a wall of propaganda around us trying to influence those choices, and if we silence that wall of propaganda we can find what we truly need in the world. The real declining resource is meaningful thought and understanding rather than fear and reaction which are in massive surplus, everywhere, always. You lost me by postulating a difference between accomplishment and delivery. We have R friends who think that anything goes, with their MAN. The problem is THEIR MAN is losing it mentally. NONE OF THIS MAKES SENSE. WOULD ANY OF YOU HAVE STARTED YOUR PRESIDENCY WITH ADDING TAXES TO OUR GOODS and NOW SERVICES? most of us are barely competent to operate a motor vehicle. I doubt most of us are qualified to be president no matter how much we may dream. asking how we would start our presidency is a empty fallacy, we possess insufficient knowledge and experience to even contemplate the situation. I would be a great President! In fact, I would be a GREAT Emperor of the world. no, you’d be a beautiful, amazing Emperor of the world. Great isn’t a big enough word to describe your reign. Why sabotage your legacy with insufficient words? I’m aiming for Lord of the Universe as i feel it has more options for growth(expanding universe and all that rot) as well as advancement (extra dimensional mostly) been watching the dailies for an opening but no ones hiring right now.. Fiction is stranger than truth… No, wait, truth is stranger than fiction… No, that does not seem right either…. Potus Fiction is stranger than plebs fiction! Movies are just another service like Google or Amazon. Look up Digital Services Taxes (DSTs) in Europe on American service companies. This has nothing to do with Hollywood and everything to do with American service companies operating in Europe. DSTs and VATs are a very contentious point between the US and Europe and it looks like it just got hotter. Trump says it’s national security, you say it’s taxes. You sayin’ Trump’s a liar? He is saying whatever you decide he is saying, now isn’t he? I said it is part of negotiations which it is. Why don’t you take a look at the DSTs and come back. We can discuss it then. It makes sense once you remember that the same people who run Hollywood also run Israel and dictate US foreign policy. Vote MAGA, get MIGA. Oy vey. Trump appointed three Hollywood veterans Jon Voight, Sylvester Stallone and Mel Gibson ===== Jon Voight, = 1938 born Sylvester Stallone 1946 born and Mel Gibson is not exactly born in USA! is he going be deported first? jesus! Trump is more and more deranged Mel Gibson was born in New York City. A 5 his parents moved to Australia. when I was 5, my parents took me to the zoo. But i found my way back home.. travel widens one’s experience and abilities at self reliance.. No doubt the SAG is solidly against this. They should be. US has a large surplus in this area. On deck is only using American actors and actresses. Sigh. No problem. Instead of shooting my next Hallmark Special in BC as usual, I’ll do it all using generative AI at AWS:Oregon2. What about Aunt Becky? Aunt Becky is red right down to her underwear..ask any chinaman.. Self-appointed King Herod believes he has the authority who lives and who dies. Hahahahaha! What a show! always keep the microwave popcorn handy when visiting this site. I’m working on an AI that can trigger the microwave based on the URL. I’mma call it “MishPop”. i’ll leave a link and you can beta test it for me.. This is the kind of economically foolish thinking you’d expect from a guy like Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders has a couple really nice houses, he does allright for a socialist, I think he knows what kinda foolish thinking makes his bank account fatter.. a lot of politics is theater. what’s that saying ?? politics is hollywood for ugly people or something like that.. after some reflection I realize the saying is “politics is show business for ugly people” The clown show continues and the sheep clap. as long as we can get butts in the seats, alls well that ends well.. one clown hates Shakespeare? can always count on mishtalk to bring out the mentally challenged.. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • Most Cases in a Single Day Hopes of containment we shattered as the WHO comments a on a new surge coronavirus cases surge: Most Cases in a Single Day . WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference that the reported cases are “the most cases in a single day since the outbreak started” Dec. 31. Infectious disease specialists and scientists say the virus may be more contagious than current data shows. Data on the virus is changing by the day, and some infectious disease specialists say it will take weeks before they can see just how contagious it is. The respiratory illness is not yet considered a pandemic. A pandemic is “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people,” according to WHO. Looks Like a Pandemic https://t.co/FnvatNAWtE — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 2, 2020 But hey, the WHO officials say it isn’t. China Clamps Down On Coverage Things are always worse than reported in China, especially when there is a Media Clampdown . There is a new crackdown on the media and on the internet, and it signals an effort to control the narrative about a crisis that has become a once-in-a-generation challenge for leaders in Beijing. Nearly 500 people in China have died from the virus, health officials said on Wednesday, and thousands more are being infected every day, fueling fears that the virus’s spread is not being adequately controlled. And internet platforms have removed several articles that suggest shortcomings in the Chinese government’s response or are otherwise negative about the outbreak. Local officials have also cracked down on what they call online “rumors” about the virus. Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases The WSJ reports Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases Designated hospitals in the Chinese city at the center of a coronavirus outbreak started taking only severe or critical patients, as more Chinese cities imposed restrictions on movement to help contain the fast-spreading pathogen that has killed nearly 500 people. “The medical resources in Wuhan, especially the ICU team, are not enough to deal with this severe treatment,” he said in an interview Tuesday with state broadcaster China Central Television. The death rate from the virus in the city is 4.9%, more than twice the nationwide 2.1%, according to the health commission. Cities throughout China are putting increasingly severe restrictions on residents. Zhumadian, a city in Henan province—which borders the outbreak-stricken province of Hubei—is allowing one person per household to leave every five days to buy supplies. At least a half-dozen Chinese cities, including the tech hub of Hangzhou, near Shanghai, have imposed similar regulations, though typically allowing shopping every other day. Wuhan, Hubei’s capital, has been under lockdown for two weeks. Bianco Update Yesterday John Hopkins has some of the best global data on coronavirus infections. Here is a revised NON-CHINA infection chart with a simple 7-day projection. Now 25 new cases were added yesterday. https://t.co/YiHMIB61ZE @RMKOutFront @ErikSTownsend @MishGEA @chrismartenson pic.twitter.com/nl0xyMpFWo — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 4, 2020 My Update Yesterday Coronavirus Can Spread in Poop and On Doorknobs Wenzhou, Pop 9 Million, Bans People From Leaving Their Home China Secretly Hiding Body Bags Princess Cruise Ship Quarantined 100 Princeton Students in Self-Isolation Bianco Chart Update https://t.co/bx7ll8zcOg — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 4, 2020 Hiding Body Bags Whistleblower arrested in China after secretly filming ‘piles of body bags at a hospital in coronavirus ground zero Wuhan’ #CoronavirusOutbreak https://t.co/cz4hZhP95a — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) February 3, 2020 Diamond Princess Cruise Quarantined Japan. Diamond Princess currently held under quarantine at Yokohama port, after somebody who got off the cruise ship in HK on Jan 25 developed symptoms of #coronavirus 6 days later Via YT https://t.co/oJJofRVPy3 pic.twitter.com/ofR5vTnIuQ — woppa (@Woppa1Woppa) February 3, 2020 JUST IN: More than 10 people aboard a Japanese cruise liner have tested positive for #coronavirus , Japan’s @tbs_news reported, after all 3,000+ passengers were quarantined earlier Tuesday pic.twitter.com/I6Z4iqIMEB — Bloomberg Originals (@bbgoriginals) February 4, 2020 Coronavirus Passed on to Unborn https://t.co/eYsUXJLe93 — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 5, 2020 Still Growing Exponentially Today is day 20 (Feb 4) of REPORTED infections and mortality. Ncov19 has already infected 300% more than the PEAK of SARS, and Swine flu took 47 days to rech the same point. Ncov19 is still growth exponentially. NCv19 mortality has exceed the Swine Flu and day 47 of SARS. pic.twitter.com/hbslek0med — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 5, 2020 How Many Deaths? 25,000? Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus https://t.co/0TdllAvzEa — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 5, 2020 25,000 deaths is more believable than 500. You do not lock up 60 million people over 500 deaths. A half-dozen cities allow one person per household to leave their homes every five days to buy supplies. Zhumadian, a city in Henan province allows one person per household to leave every five days to buy supplies. Wuhan, Hangzhou, half dozen other cities with similar restrictions. And the death count is only 500. Yeah, right. https://t.co/mItwcIRZfM — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 5, 2020 And the death total is 500. Yeah, right. Mike “Mish” Shedlock Hopes of containment we shattered as the WHO comments a on a new surge coronavirus cases surge: Most Cases in a Single Day . WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference that the reported cases are “the most cases in a single day since the outbreak started” Dec. 31. Infectious disease specialists and scientists say the virus may be more contagious than current data shows. Data on the virus is changing by the day, and some infectious disease specialists say it will take weeks before they can see just how contagious it is. The respiratory illness is not yet considered a pandemic. A pandemic is “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people,” according to WHO. Looks Like a Pandemic https://t.co/FnvatNAWtE — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 2, 2020 But hey, the WHO officials say it isn’t. China Clamps Down On Coverage Things are always worse than reported in China, especially when there is a Media Clampdown . There is a new crackdown on the media and on the internet, and it signals an effort to control the narrative about a crisis that has become a once-in-a-generation challenge for leaders in Beijing. Nearly 500 people in China have died from the virus, health officials said on Wednesday, and thousands more are being infected every day, fueling fears that the virus’s spread is not being adequately controlled. And internet platforms have removed several articles that suggest shortcomings in the Chinese government’s response or are otherwise negative about the outbreak. Local officials have also cracked down on what they call online “rumors” about the virus. Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases The WSJ reports Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases Designated hospitals in the Chinese city at the center of a coronavirus outbreak started taking only severe or critical patients, as more Chinese cities imposed restrictions on movement to help contain the fast-spreading pathogen that has killed nearly 500 people. “The medical resources in Wuhan, especially the ICU team, are not enough to deal with this severe treatment,” he said in an interview Tuesday with state broadcaster China Central Television. The death rate from the virus in the city is 4.9%, more than twice the nationwide 2.1%, according to the health commission. Cities throughout China are putting increasingly severe restrictions on residents. Zhumadian, a city in Henan province—which borders the outbreak-stricken province of Hubei—is allowing one person per household to leave every five days to buy supplies. At least a half-dozen Chinese cities, including the tech hub of Hangzhou, near Shanghai, have imposed similar regulations, though typically allowing shopping every other day. Wuhan, Hubei’s capital, has been under lockdown for two weeks. Bianco Update Yesterday John Hopkins has some of the best global data on coronavirus infections. Here is a revised NON-CHINA infection chart with a simple 7-day projection. Now 25 new cases were added yesterday. https://t.co/YiHMIB61ZE @RMKOutFront @ErikSTownsend @MishGEA @chrismartenson pic.twitter.com/nl0xyMpFWo — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 4, 2020 My Update Yesterday Coronavirus Can Spread in Poop and On Doorknobs Wenzhou, Pop 9 Million, Bans People From Leaving Their Home China Secretly Hiding Body Bags Princess Cruise Ship Quarantined 100 Princeton Students in Self-Isolation Bianco Chart Update https://t.co/bx7ll8zcOg — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 4, 2020 Hiding Body Bags Whistleblower arrested in China after secretly filming ‘piles of body bags at a hospital in coronavirus ground zero Wuhan’ #CoronavirusOutbreak https://t.co/cz4hZhP95a — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) February 3, 2020 Diamond Princess Cruise Quarantined Japan. Diamond Princess currently held under quarantine at Yokohama port, after somebody who got off the cruise ship in HK on Jan 25 developed symptoms of #coronavirus 6 days later Via YT https://t.co/oJJofRVPy3 pic.twitter.com/ofR5vTnIuQ — woppa (@Woppa1Woppa) February 3, 2020 JUST IN: More than 10 people aboard a Japanese cruise liner have tested positive for #coronavirus , Japan’s @tbs_news reported, after all 3,000+ passengers were quarantined earlier Tuesday pic.twitter.com/I6Z4iqIMEB — Bloomberg Originals (@bbgoriginals) February 4, 2020 Coronavirus Passed on to Unborn https://t.co/eYsUXJLe93 — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 5, 2020 Still Growing Exponentially Today is day 20 (Feb 4) of REPORTED infections and mortality. Ncov19 has already infected 300% more than the PEAK of SARS, and Swine flu took 47 days to rech the same point. Ncov19 is still growth exponentially. NCv19 mortality has exceed the Swine Flu and day 47 of SARS. pic.twitter.com/hbslek0med — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 5, 2020 How Many Deaths? 25,000? Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus https://t.co/0TdllAvzEa — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 5, 2020 25,000 deaths is more believable than 500. You do not lock up 60 million people over 500 deaths. A half-dozen cities allow one person per household to leave their homes every five days to buy supplies. Zhumadian, a city in Henan province allows one person per household to leave every five days to buy supplies. Wuhan, Hangzhou, half dozen other cities with similar restrictions. And the death count is only 500. Yeah, right. https://t.co/mItwcIRZfM — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 5, 2020 And the death total is 500. Yeah, right. Mike “Mish” Shedlock Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. Please no more hype on these hospital warehouses that the CCP built as propaganda memes. Any developed country can put up prefab warehouse in a short amount of time if necessary. They are irrelevant. What is necessary is for the Chinese Communist Party to reveal the real truth behind this massive epidemic? I am still waiting. Excluding China, the number of new cases reported per day, with data from 1/23 to 2/5: 14,11,15,17,7,23,18,13,35,21,9,7,23,46,51 Where it goes from here is really important, and will tell us a lot about how successful the containment has been. In the early days, the cases were almost all people who had been to China in general, and Wuhan in particular. The recent cases are mostly human-human transmissions outside of China. Several factors affect what we are seeing. First, air travel was still going on early in this time, but then it got mostly shut down. Second, it takes time for a person who has been exposed to develop symptoms. My reading of this data is that early on there was a fairly steady supply of new potential cases from people coming back from China, and that, as new cases arriving from China diminished due to ceasing travel, a few human transmission cases appeared, keeping the numbers about constant. Since it takes awhile for newly infected people to show symptoms, and given the efforts to limit the number of people exposed, the growth in human transmission cases outside of China has been slow. What happens next? Is the 7, 23, 46 of the last three days the start of an exponential rise, as the coronavirus breaks out of containment? Or, is it an insignificant blip? Are we looking at waves, where the first infection wave was “7,23,18,13,35”, and then after a few days for the next infection cycle to begin, a second wave, 50% stronger than the first began “7,23,46,51…” Only time can answer that. Edit – i had an error in my spreadsheet, which i fixed. Due to the massive number of cases on the Japanese Cruise ship, the non China cases took a huge spike up the last two days. However, since those cases were confined to the cruise ship, the only people at risk are the other passengers on the ship, not the entire country of Japan. Looking at the daily records, containment seems to working very effectively. Even based on official records, Hubei is still seeing a 20% daily increase in cases, which is what happens when it gets out, with no effort to contain it, and the death rate there is still high, which is what happens when you don’t have proper facilities and staff to treat the needed patients. Outside of Hubei, the cases are rising more slowly each day, now at about 12% a day. Outside of China, where the records we can mostly believe, the infection rate is only rising 7% a day. Both rates are lower all the time. Prompt action, and quarantining anyone suspected of exposure, and preventing a situation where it is spreading freely in the wild…. for now, at least. The data from Wuhan shows how important it is to catch it early, and address it aggressively. If a country lets down it’s guard, it could explode at any time, though. Japan, Singapore and S. Korea seem to be the most at risk. “Confirmed cases” means those poor souls who have been tested and found infected. Yet there are widespread reports of inadequate supplies of test kits. Are the “cause of death” reports consistent with western conventions? Probably not; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM&t=2s (4 min mark) Most troubling to me, in light of the above evidence, is why is the African continent apparently untouched? Is it unreasonable to suppose that Chinese workers involved on China-road projects did not travel home for new years? Is this phenomena due to no spreading of the virus or simply a lack of test kits? No doubt China didn’t address the mild cases when they were overwhelmed with serious ones. There is certainly a certain amounts of catching up going on, with mild cases being tested and identified. That is why the cases is still going up in Hubei by 20% a day, but deaths are going up at 14% . It is probable that there is a certain amount of under-reporting from China, both in terms of cases and in terms of deaths, yet not by the orders of magnitude some people think. Regardless of what you think about the data from China, the data from the rest of the world indicates containment. Most countries are seeing very few new cases, particularly cases that didn’t involve someone who had been in China. Yes, it’s always possible that the virus will break containment in some other countries, which would make it a pandemic, but for now it hasn’t, and it no longer appears likely that it will. Agree with your first paragraph, but I worry about what happens when this hits Africa, which I think it might. I didn’t get chance to answer your question on another topic about quarantine. First thing to say is that I am not medically trained. My guess is that they will continue to enforce the quarantine until numbers come down to manageable levels. How long will this be? From what I can tell, Chinese people in Wuhan mostly live in apartments with several generations of the family sharing. I assume transmissibility within those environments is quite high, so probably the time for a 5 person family to get it and recover from it is a month or so. Any cases beyond that would presumably be manageable since spread outside of those units would be minimised. Rate of new cases continues to decelerate: We don’t really know much about this virus. I’m a skeptic about our ability to handle this crisis in a timely manner. The solar minimum, the rise of cosmic rays, and the cooling of the climate will cause a world famine in just a few years. Starvation and pandemics like this one will cause half the population of our planet to perish in the coming decade. We will be on the edge of extinction if we do not band together. This is a time for nationalism. We need to build more bunkers, focus on investing in vertical farms, and prepare, prepare, prepare. Preppers, the brunt of many jokes, may have the last laugh when SHTF happens. I see the way the Chinese built those hospitals, how fast. I applaud them. Can we do the same here, right now. The number one priority is infrastructure spending building bridges, highways, and hospitals. Put people to work, build up America, make us strong. Let’s make a difference. This pandemic will create a global recession by 2021. The stock market will lose nearly 82% of its value over the first two years of that bleak period. The banks are still broken from 2008. We are so vulnerable at this moment in history. Bank balance sheets, derivatives, and the like–its a house of cards. There’s a reason why I can’t get any interest on my savings account. That’s proof enough of how bad things are today. And consumer credit rates are high. Debt levels are astonishing. If the Spanish Flu killed nearly 60% of the people in Philadelphia, and similar death rates happened in other city across America, what chance do we have today? Particularly if a cooling climate lowers our crop yields, and the world enters a decade where famine spreads across the planet. We do not have enough hospitals, doctors, nurses, or crematoriums in this country to handle this—right now. It will require sacrifice by everyone, to volunteer, help out, and build a strong community. Get educated. Make yourself useful. The average mortality rate in China is about 8 deaths per 1000 lives per year. Wuhan has a population of 19 Million. Do some math and you come up with a figure of 415 people in Wuhan moving on to the next phase of life everyday. So, the number bandied about are not significant in the overall picture. The pressure on hospitals must be significant though since many of the sick probably require ICU time. I suspect there is an under reporting of the number of infections as many who are infected will probably stay to fight it out. I think a young lady who showed up in the Canadian hospital system was kept for a few days but quickly released after what was reported a mild infection. If this thing was engineered the Chinese government knows what it is. That might account for the massive response to this. What we know about this virus is- nothing. Not the R0, not the actual dead rate or the rate of complications. We know nothing except there is a massive response to this by the Chinese government. The Chinese government has put their economy at risk to fight this somewhat proactively. Government are not proactive. That’s scary. Or was it a bioweapon that released “accidently” to see the effects of in real time?Chinese people were bein used as lab rats in an experiment that went south quick.Will the PLA next move to deploy the nerve toxin in Walmarts all over US? Major Chinese cities are still on lock-down with an uncertain outlook about when the quarantines will end. Trucks are spraying disinfectant in the empty streets. Evacuation flights to Wuhan by other countries are restricted to using the airport during nighttime hours only. There are multiple separately leaked stories over the last week about the crematoriums running 24/7. Any media out of China that is not state sanctioned is increasingly sparse. I cannot imagine the Chinese Communist Party taking such extreme measures if doing nothing meant 2% of their population might die. The reality must be much, much more grim. Chinese politicians don’t hold the rights to lying as a crisis management tactic. (“When it gets serious, you have to lie.” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s 2011 comment re Greek debt crisis.), however, I’m becoming suspicious. The first WHO situation report on January 21st, Wuhan had 258 cases of Coronavirus, including 51 severely ill, 12 critical and six deaths. Based ostensibly on this, they began actual construction of a 1,000 bed hospital in Wuhan four days later, finishing it in ten days. I’m having a problem imagining the following conversation taking place between Beijing and Wuhan authorities: Wuhan: We need help. We want to build a 1,000 bed hospital. Beijing: Understood. How many actual deaths do you now have? Wuhan: Six. @abend237-04 That’s the best point I have heard so far. How about “we need help, we need to build a 1000 bed hospital” “Understood, how many cases do you have” “258, all of them needing hospital care, and 50 new since yesterday” Alternate source for some statistical summaries and some specifics typically left out of the discussions. From link for those who insist only older people are badly affected “Serious Cases of 30 year old patients in France As of Jan. 29, according to French authorities, the conditions of the two earliest Paris cases had worsened and the patients were being treated in intensive care, according to French authorities. The patients have been described as a young couple aged 30 and 31 years old, both Chinese citizens from Wuhan who were asymptomatic when they arrived in Paris on January 18 “ I’m an err on side of caution sort. Took a quick peek of Washington Post / Fox News / Drudge / NBC headlines and you have to squint to find any mention of virus. Must not disturb our false idol, I guess. Hope we are at least preparing behind the scenes. What do they know that results in such a massive lock down? Those in charge in China are scared. It’s the main story on BBCs News at 10, looks as if they’re finally taking it seriously. Apparently in the main cities that are locked down they’re only allowing one member of the family to go out to get food every other day. That Tencent bit is most likely a hoax. Or this: https://twitter.com/stacyherbert/status/1225058409558544386 What about the 154,000 infections? Good point. But I can go to any website, easily change the numbers in my browser, make a screenshot and claim that it was there accidentally for a minute before they fixed it. Took me 10 seconds to make this: https://i.imgur.com/TdnXKVg.png Someone else on another site explained how it could easily be faked as well. Doesn’t mean it is of course, just that you have to take everything with a pinch of salt. Infections, maybe. Confirmed infections? No way they have tested that many people. We should not have to guess at this point. The WHO will know true mortality rate, which is all that really matters right now as the virus will be pandemic. I’ll repeat that – the WHO knows the true mortality rate, 100% certain they have figures that are as close to reality as are able to be understood. However they are not releasing independent info, info which might be useful to slow the dispersion of the virus and spare people. Instead they are asking for over half a billion in extra funding. So either : There is dereliction of duty. If China wants to expel them for publishing so be it, it is their duty to inform, not to withold data so as to spy on China. Western authorities are taking the lead from WHO, but some will certainly know the true extent also. If it were as serious as insinuated here, they would still not act independently to close their own borders because the economic cost of closing them completely would be too high, because society would not accept, because equally the virus is understood to achieve pandemic status even with borders closed. So there would be international collusion and willingness to act under the guidance of WHO. Or: The figures are close to what China reports, and so there is little to add. We will find out eventually, just remember at this point that whatever the mortality rate is, that most if not all governments and the WHO are aware of it, and will already now have been aware of it for weeks. “China misinformed” will not be an acceptable excuse if it turns out much higher than reported by China at the moment. I’m thinking 25k way more realistic considering actions taken. Probably a good idea to keep an eye on things real close in the US in case it’s time to make a run to Aldis, the stock up store, before everyone else does. A big finding by one medical group is that a lot of the transmissions are fecally transmitted. Remember some were talking about Aids. That was way off because most fecal transmissions are made by people that live in unsanitary conditions, like Asia, India, etc. Was your hands thoroughly and use sterile wipes. In America it has been trending that way, until we had a small blip on the bottom of the analysis curve. A few more days and we will know if that is truly the case. Masks do nothing unless you do not want to give the virus to somebody else. As of right now be real sterile, and breath a little easier. @Klagorio : Can you cite the source stating that many of the China infections were fecally transmitted? “Masks do nothing unless you do not want to give the virus to somebody else.” Don’t give wrong advice. One benefit of mask is it stops you touching your mouth. Which in the context of feral transmission is not insignificant. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • Nine States Post New Record Cases The day after the election, Covid Cases Surged to New Records . Nine states reported record one-day increases in cases on Wednesday: Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Washington and Wisconsin. In addition to rising cases, on Tuesday hospitalizations topped 50,000 for the first time in three months. North Dakota reported only six free intensive care unit beds in the entire state on Wednesday, when it was one of 14 states that reported record levels of hospitalized COVID-19 patients . The proportion of tests coming back positive is greater than 50% in South Dakota and over 40% in Iowa and Wyoming. The World Health Organization says rates of more than 5% are concerning because they indicate undetected community transmission. The previous U.S. record for new cases in a day was 100,233 on Oct. 30, the highest ever reported by any country in the world. New Cases Per Million New Deaths Per Million Deaths inevitably follow hospitalizations so we should see a spike in deaths soon. Mish The day after the election, Covid Cases Surged to New Records . Nine states reported record one-day increases in cases on Wednesday: Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Washington and Wisconsin. In addition to rising cases, on Tuesday hospitalizations topped 50,000 for the first time in three months. North Dakota reported only six free intensive care unit beds in the entire state on Wednesday, when it was one of 14 states that reported record levels of hospitalized COVID-19 patients . The proportion of tests coming back positive is greater than 50% in South Dakota and over 40% in Iowa and Wyoming. The World Health Organization says rates of more than 5% are concerning because they indicate undetected community transmission. The previous U.S. record for new cases in a day was 100,233 on Oct. 30, the highest ever reported by any country in the world. New Cases Per Million New Deaths Per Million Deaths inevitably follow hospitalizations so we should see a spike in deaths soon. Mish Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. A live debate is happening on Youtube in a couple of hours that some may be interested in: Herd Immunity as a Coronavirus Pandemic Strategy November 6, 2020, 3:20P Central US Would letting coronavirus infect the broad US and global population be a safe and effective means of ending the COVID-19 pandemic? Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, of Stanford University’s Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research is a signatory of the ‘Great Barrington Declaration,’ which proposes to “allow those at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.” Marc Lipsitch, PhD, of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, a signatory of the ‘John Snow Memorandum’ which refutes the argument, responds. San Diego County is facing another shutdown due to increase in new cases. Repeat increase in new cases, not increase in hospitalizations. There has been no increase in hospitalizations, it remains at 297 in a county of 2.5 million, but new cases requires an economic shutdown. People had their chance 3 days ago on Nov 3rd to express their dissatisfaction with the overall COVID response in their political area by voting out incumbents who supported economic lockdowns and/or voting in candidates promising to review/examine the validity of lockdowns. I have not seen any media reports of people approaching the election in this way. Instead, the horse race (election) degenerated into the usual US vs. THEM choice. With all eyes on the election this COVID outbreak has gotten completely out of hand. If this virus follows the course we have seen to date we can expect hospitalizations to increase significantly in the next week or two followed by a spike in the death rate. Hope to hell I am wrong otherwise it is not going to be the happiest of Thanksgivings or the Merriest of Christmases. The truth shall set your free – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/nhs-nurse-resigns-say-govt-counting-flu-covid-together-real-number-only-3-in-hospital-for-covid/ My company is still planning to re-open the offices to 40% by first of the year. It is a very big company so that explains the lag between the uptrend in COVID and their decision-making. Chris Martenson: “The silence around Vitamin D alone is extremely telling. It is the pharmacological dog that did not bark. One true inference suggests others. Here, too, we can deduce from the near total silence around Vitamin D that the health managers would prefer not to talk about it. They don’t want people to know. That much is painfully clear. Such lack of promotion (let alone appropriate study) of safe, effective treatments is a thread that, if tugged, can unravel the whole rug. The silence tells us everything we need to know.” Martinson has also become critical of the suppression of HCQ. Not from Martinson’s blog: “Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study Vitamin D Insufficient Patients, those patients that had a blood serum 25(OH)D of between 21 to 29 ng/ml died at a rate that was 12 times greater than those patients who had a blood serum level greater than 30 ng/ml. Vitamin D Deficient Patients, those patients that had a Vit D active blood serum level that was lees than 20 ng/ml died at a rate that was 19 times greater, than those patients that had a blood serum level that was greater than 30 ng/ml. Regardless of sex or age, Vit. D deficient people are 19 times more likely to die from covid or have serious organ damage than those who are Vit. D normal.” As far as i am aware, Dr. Fauci has never suggested that anyone take vitamin D or zinc. Nor has the head of the CDC, to my knowledge. “”The silence around Vitamin D alone is extremely telling.” Silence? Do a google and you get 100s of hits. But if you want to read about from the “stablishment” Honestly it is very sad that you see conspiracies where there are none… Perhaps the fact that domestic medicine slants heavily towards (long-term, more costly) symptom management over (less costly) preventative care is coincidence, perhaps it is not. Regardless, it is good to see more discussion about something that is beneficial, and there isn’t enough being said on this subject by the ‘authorities’. There are not conspiracies on vitamin D. Every year for the last 5 years measuring my vitamin D in my blood test has become part of the yearly physical. They have been fortifying milk with D for I don’t know how many eons. They haven’t found that adding D to your diet will keep covid away. They have found, however, that the most severe cases happen to have low D to start with. So yes take the supplement. I don’t need an authority to tell me that. Ask around and you’ll find a lot of people who don’t inderstand how important Vitamin D is, especially now. Our fantastic MSM should be touting it but they are too busy whipping up political craziness for the dummies that still watch that shit On case there is any question, I understand that specifically it is Vitamin D3 that is most effective. Perpetuate the propaganda – that’s what you do best. How much is the “Great Reset” cabal paying you to destroy this country? The death rate in the US has declined from around 0.005% to 0.0033%, and all you can do is scream about the cases. How many of the hospitalizations were actually for Covid, versus people that had to postpone elective surgeries? Your advocated cure is much worse than the disease. Heck more people die from automobile and malpractice accidents, so why not eliminate hospitals and cars (oh yah, the WEF and the rest of the green socialist are trying to do that now, and socialize medicine will certainly help with Gates’s eugenics goals). Look at the numbers: The US has 13% of the new deaths, 19% of new cases, and 20% of severe cases in the world. Give or take, that is a larger number of cases than India and Brazil together. The trend is increasing faster than the most pessimistic projections Pertinent to the presented data, commentary should focus on the seriousness of the situation. Gilead Are you trying to sell me some remdesivir? You assume that the numbers you see reported are correct. Not only form the USA, but from other countries. That is likely a bad assumption to embrace. Don’t know according to the Qanon guys there are all actors there is no covid it’s all fake news. No one is sick it’s a plan by the man to keep the bros under control. One of the most amazing stats that has come out is the increase in the wealth of the 1% over the past 7 months — astronomical; clearly for some Covid has been a great thing. if editing was there and is now gone – then due to being forced to turn off posting again, the two are related. Another attack on my website Sports betting and sports promotion sites sending hundreds or even thousands of links. Do not know the count. They are autodeleted. This has been going on for several days causing frustration for everyone. In response, spam filter also affecting legitimate comments. I undelete them when I see them. Do not submit comments twice if they disappear. It’s extra work on me. Apologies offered. Mish No worries. I doubt the attacks are random….and they will probably go away once the election is decided. Conspiracy theory? Nope. It’s because you’re speaking out. This problem does seem to crop up when the “I used to follow you Mish, but sadly…” start showing up. Probably incels that not only can’t get a woman, they can’t get anyone to pay any attention to them at all. I thought spam fighting and security should be the responsibility of the hosting platform you are using – thestreet.com? So tired of Covid. Let the “weeding” progress and let’s move on. You first. Get out there and lick toilet seats till you’re infected, then tell us if you feel that’s a experience you’d like to share. Or why don’t we all just go on with our lives as we choose while you can hide in a corner with your thumb in your mouth, cowering in fear? No option to edit my post. Only option is to copy link. Posted to test edit Georgia Update Well forget about Noon This is going to be within a few thousand votes Assuming 61,000 left and current Trump lead of 13.5K is accurate I believe Biden will win “We’re going to make sure every legal, lawful ballot is counted,” said Mr. Sterling, speaking for Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Of course he will get the votes from the Democrat urban voters. Mish, since you are from the Chicago area perhaps you can verify for us the quality of elections there and to confirm to us that no election fraud could happen there or on in in big city controlled by Democrats for decades. I used t live in Philly and the elections there were a total joke and everybody knew it. this is not 1960 or even 1970 These are mail-in votes with many watching eyes Chance of substantial fraud is very low You really think that? Chicago is a model for fair elections? I suppose we should spread it to Utah then. From what I understand, unless it’s also >50%, there will have to be a runoff. And the math doesn’t look to support an immediate declaration. Trump alleges 10,000 illegal votes in Nevada I didn’t know zerohedge had such a Grindr-oriented profile photo. Gives me a new understanding of his fellowing, err following… See “Fight Club.” But don’t talk about it. …I tell Palahniuk (the author of “Fight Club”) that I’ve seen incels – “involuntary celibate” men angry at their lack of sexual partners – quoting Fight Club as an example of why one shouldn’t underestimate ordinary frustrated men. He is amused, saying that the book was previously quoted by adherents to The Game, Neil Strauss’s guide to picking up women for emotionally unattached sex. “It’s fascinating that the group that can’t get laid is now adopting the same language. It shows how few options men have in terms of metaphors: a skimpy inventory of images. They have The Matrix – there’s a lot of red pill, blue pill stuff – and they have Fight Club. The only other thing is Dead Poets Society, where men go into a cavern and say poems to each other, and they’re not going to adopt that.” … Hey. I like Dead Poet Society. Robin Williams at his finest. Chuck Palahniuk needs to rewatch the movie. Incels……In my day we just called it a dry spell….and were thankful when things got better, Never thought of blaming the entire female sex for not being able to get laid. But we didn’t have 4 chan to commiserate with each other….It was a lonely time for broke-ass geeks. I suggest these poor guys take a break from women and just learn to make serious money…..the problem will be self-correcting, with a little time. Or become a tortured artist, like my son….he had to beat the women back with a stick in his single days. Millions of Danish mink to be culled in CV mutation passed to humans which makes vaccine less viable… Approximately 275 mink farms in 23 states across the USA produce about 3 million pelts annually, with a value of more than $300 million USD (2013). Wisconsin is the leading mink-producing state, generating well over 1 million pelts. Other important producers are Utah, Idaho, Oregon and Minnesota. From 4 weeks ago… Thousands of mink have died at fur farms in Utah and Wisconsin after a series of coronavirus outbreaks. In Utah, ranchers have lost at least 8,000 mink to Covid-19 among the animals known for their silky, luxurious pelts. The virus first appeared in the creatures in August, shortly after farmworkers fell ill in July, according to Dr. Dean Taylor, State Veterinarian of Utah. Initial research shows the virus was transmitted from humans to animals, and so far has not seen any cases of the opposite. “Everything we’ve looked at here in Utah suggests its gone from the humans to the animals,” Taylor told CNN. “It feels like a unidirectional path,” he said, adding that testing is still underway. Utah’s was the first outbreak among mink in the United States. On Friday, Kevin Hoffman, a spokesperson at the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, told CNN 2,000 mink have died from the coronavirus at a Wisconsin farm as well. Officials have quarantined the farm, Hoffman said in a release, meaning no animals or animal products may leave the Taylor County premises. Dr. Keith Paulson with the UW-Madison Veterinary School Diagnostic Laboratory told CNN affiliate WISN that he noted “significant mortality in the mink” and that three workers there had recovered from the virus after displaying “mild to moderate clinical signs.” But… “We have been informed by Denmark of a number of persons infected with coronavirus from mink, with some genetic changes in the virus,” WHO said in a statement emailed to Reuters in Geneva. “The Danish authorities are investigating the epidemiological and virological significance of these findings.” Health authorities found virus strains in humans and in mink which showed decreased sensitivity against antibodies, potentially lowering the efficacy of future vaccines, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said. “The worst case scenario is a new pandemic, starting all over again out of Denmark,” said Kare Molbak, director at the State Serum Institute. Same story in the Netherlands, although it’s already in the rear-view mirror. ….it’s already in the rear-view mirror… You mean, “it’s already in the world” No. I mean culling of all the mink farms. How about China? Wonder what Covid mutations are occurring there as they maintain their secrecy? Can people edit comments? I dont’t know, Mr. Editor… Yes, no problem today. No. The option is missing, but have experienced this before. test post, ignore for now No… can’t edit the post above. Could have sworn that earlier today I saw the option available, but now it’s gone again. if editing was there and is now gone – then due to being forced to turn off posting again, the two seem related. Another attack on my website Pretty sure I saw the edit option on the popup menu earlier this morning. Didn’t see it yesterday. Don’t see it now. I don’t say anything important, so I don’t really care, not complaining, just letting you know. Also, any post with a Twitter link apparently gets kicked to spam. Probably a good place for them. But I posted one a few minutes back… I was just sharing a really bad idea (folks pointing out that the state legislatures can send a rival slate of electors, per Constitution) and labeled it as such… wasn’t a “fake newsy” kind of post. No option to edit. Is the attack a slew of posts to “STOP THE COUNT!” from one set of addresses and another slew that says “KEEP COUNTING!” from another set of addresses? Just curious… No – Sports betting and sports in general Hundreds of users sending mass promotions one after the other that’s almost… refreshing to hear. anything not-election and not-covid is nice these days. It was working fine earlier this morning. nope Georgia Update This is going to be within a few thousand votes Remaining votes will be solidly Biden – do not know if there are enough of them Remaining 1% of the votes will be 99% Biden? Do you read? “Remaining votes will be solidly Biden” does not say the remaining votes will be 99% Biden. It says that Biden ‘should’ get the majority (read >50%) of the remaining votes. Based on subsequent posts, there are 60k votes left. Pair that with a 14k vote difference against Biden and he needs to get >70% of what’s left. A tall order. Not insurmountable, but also not very likely. The AJC say 60k left of absentee ballots. 70% of absentees. That’s not far off the mark of what he’s been running with those. It’s a very skewed vote. GA will be really close. The problem will be that Georgia will require a runoff election now unless nearly every single vote goes to Trump. Law there requires a majority in addition. So that should be fun. For in state elections. Not for president. Mish – do you still have Georgia and PA going to Biden? Yes , and I believe GA will be the tipping point state if accurate. Just placed bets on that on Predicit There will be 2 runoff Senate elections in Georgia Perdue “won” but will not top 50%. GA requires a runoff In the other GA seat, no one came close to 50% Perdue still within 1000 votes of needing a runoff. Will also be close. Runoff nearly guaranteed yeah, he’s 12K votes shy of 50% now and trending badly. double run-off. if AK and NC Senate seats hold, GOP goes into January with 50-48 lead. by that time we’ll know who will be Prez. wonder what GA turnout will be like and if they’ll be looking to give the Dems full control or the opposite. can’t imagine turnout will be as high without Trump on ballot. Mish, can China help us out by shipping those mobile crematorium incinerators from Wuhan that you were writing about 8 months ago? The nukes? And that’s only the tested it is probably 10 times more people actually have the virus and/or have had it so we are probably closer to 98 million at least 240k deaths 0.245% deaths…. still 20 times normal flu very serious. Stay safe and be healthy! I’m not comfortable with the 240k, but from a public health policy perspective, but fatality rates should ALWAYS be reported stratified by age and health status. I’ve seen that as high as 40% of all fatalities have been nursing home residents. Yet the people living in nursing homes represent less than 1% of the population. Crazy. < 0,5% We will have a better idea of that soon enough. North Dakota is over 6%, and case and deaths are both rising fast. If it is 10x, that means 60% have had it already, and by the time 8% are reported to have had it, 80% really would have, and the herd immunity threshold would be reached. If the number of cases keeps rising past 8%, we’ll know that the 10x number is wrong. People work in jobs that they have an affinity for and have the best cost/benefit ratio, as they understand it. People who were willing to accept the cost/benefit ratio of working in health-care during a non-pandemic, find that the cost/benefit ratio during a pandemic has drastically changed. Few people go into a job with the understanding that they are placing themselves and people they care about in jeopardy. It is unrealistic to expect the health-care system to remain fully-staffed in an extended time of new, unexpected risk. Futher, it is extemely demoralizing for the health-care workers to know that at least half the population dismisses even the most basic public health practices. So, yes, there may be rooms–will there be workers? It happens in big epidemics. Some health givers just can’t take it. I am not putting them down in any way because none of us knows what we would do in similar situations. It can be terrifying for a health worker. In the 1918 Flu which was much much worse than this one, the government would officially draft people with prior experience to man the hospitals. There was a war on so if you declined you went to jail which was also full of the sick and dying. It was a very simple solution to the problem. I heard anecdotally that roughly 20% of the dentists in the country are taking early retirement or getting out of dentistry completely. I expect the number of dental hygienists taking a sabbatical is even higher…. Other than care workers and doctors and nurses taking care of patients already diagnosed with COVID, my job is one of the riskiest…yet I have only heard of one instance of a dental office in my entire state (population 28 million) that has had to close because someone got COVID…and it wasn’t clear it happened at work. That’s a testament to good infection control, and it proves well enough to me…that good infection control goes a long way in preventing spread of COVID. Some hospitals are giving sign-on bonuses to doctors and nurses. Unless it is enough to retire soon, it probably isn’t enough. I am curious to see if anyone has stats on this. I am sure that some want to quit but those are very good-paying jobs. I imagine that the strategy would be to quit your job, wait till the epidemic is over and then come back in. Yeah, there may be lots of openings then–early retirements, deaths, disabilities… How many doctors have died? How many nurses? Give me the data. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/hundreds-of-healthcare-workers-have-died-from-covid-19-this-doctor-is-honoring-them#Personal-sacrifice ,-emotional-strain Time to bring back the nuns? O wait, nobody is eligible… Virginity is not a requirement to be a nun. Thank you for that. Please check my math. According to her figure the death rate among health worker who have contracted the virus is .0071%. It is .00436 from the CDC’s figures. These figures are way below that of the general population who contracted the virus which is .96%. This leads me to believe that being a health worker during this epidemic is safer than the general population. Please correct me if I am wrong. No idea if you’re right or wrong. Like the general public, risk depends on age and complicating conditions. But for the people in the field, perception is everything. If you are still fighting inadequate PPE, see lots of people ill, work lots of involuntary over-time taking care of people who have been foolish, worry about exposing your family and friends, and being accused by half the population of various nefarious plots due to exagerating the virus–why wouldn’t you say FU and leave? Corrected version: Thank you for that. Please check my math. According to her figure the death rate among health worker who have contracted the virus is .71%. It is .436 from the CDC’s figures. These figures are below that of the general population who contracted the virus which is .96%. This leads me to believe that being a health worker during this epidemic is safer than the general population. Please correct me if I am wrong. That’s some stinkin’ thinkin’. As everyone knows, death rates increase with age. There are damn few nurses in their 70’s and 80’s so the computations you seem to want to make need to be compared with comparable age groups to the health-care worker demographics. But then you also have to factor in that health care workers working the virus wards WILL get exposed to the illness, and they have families and friends who may be in a vulnerable demographic. So SAFER? Hell no. Why don’t you volunteer in a ward? and fiddly dee to all your chatter Whats important is that we save the cookies! “Oreo built a doomsday vault to protect cookies from an asteroid. No, we’re not kidding.” my favorite comment line: “I’m not a covid expert” In ND there isn’t a lack of space or equipment, it is a staffing issue- “The doctor echoed other hospital administrators in saying that the crunch at medical centers is due to staff shortages, rather than a lack of physical beds. Like many other states, North Dakota had a lack of nurses and other workers before the pandemic, and the issue has only been exacerbated in recent months. Trinity spokeswoman Karim Tripodina confirmed that about 140 staff members at the hospital had been in quarantine as of the end of last week, though she was unsure how many staff members are currently on the sidelines.” @KidHorn , the general consensus is that the pathogen is extremely infectious, so that should beg the question ‘Why is this happening later, not sooner?’. This part of the country has been less conforming to official guidelines, so why would it be the last region to be designated a hot spot? Lower level nurses get 15 bucks an hour. Who’s gonna play covid roulette day in and day out for that? Wow! That’s what your average nurse in France makes! Because the seasonal fluctuation correlates exactly with absolute humidity which is pretty low in ND right now. Exactly. Covid spreads all the time, but when the humidity is low, it obviously spreads incredibly fast. The staffing crunch existed before this year, but it has been exacerbated by quarantines. That said, it seems likely that some people decided to retire or find other work. @Webej and @Carl_R , where are you getting that notion? The absolute humidity level in ND would have been substantially lower last winter thru April compared to this autumn (additionally there were no or minimal precautions being taken by the population). Also, low humidity and South Florida during the summer? Indeed the humidity would have been low last April in North Dakota, but there were not yet many cases in North Dakota at the time. Now there are, and now it is spreading fast. In dry air the water evaporates, leaving the virus airborne, and it can travel a lot further. I try to keep my customer service area at 40-50% to reduce transmission. This was going to happen sooner or later. It’s extremely infectious. The idea was to not overwhelm the medical system. Or to lesson the overwhelming. I think so far, the world has done a pretty good job. “So far” only gets you so far… At some point “so far” becomes “over”. More granularity about the underlying causes for patient admissions is needed. A case is not a case until one is hospitalized, IMHO. Also critical to be aware that Medical Authorities continue to ban/ignore treatments which have been shown to reduce hospital admissions, i.e. Ivermectin/zinc/antibiotic bundle. And what about the role of private equity in taking ownership of rural hospitals and slashing number of ICU beds? Hospital admissions always increase this type of year. How much of these admissions are the result of spiritual exhaustion and despair? No pcr test for that unfortunately. Thanks, Dr. Rub. Where are you in the “market solutions” debate? I would tend to guess that no-one (read ZERO) is entering the hospital as a covid patient to get spirtual succor. what’s sad is they keep touting the TOTAL NUMBERS not today’s so what if 200,000 died how many since Oct 1(like 30 day running avg) but NOOOOOOOO – and how many total deaths(Not over 70) rates would make populous ANGRY at what they’ve done to economy I’m ready to foreclose on liberal and they’ll soon find out real cost How can that be? It’s November 5. The election was two days ago. The media is just pushing this hoax to hurt the president elect… How do you get the word out that LERONLIMAB is a safe Effacious therapy for Covid-19. Phase 2 trial just showed that after 3 days viral load was eliminated! This will save DEATHS! This is a David vs Goliath in the battle with Remdesivir. Mish, can you help? …By day 30 after initial dosing, 17/23 were recovered, 2/23 were still hospitalized, and 4/23 had died. Of the 7 intubated at baseline, 4/7 were fully recovered off oxygen, 2/7 were still hospitalized, and 1/7 had died… Any speculation on why an anti-HIV antibody would work? color me sceptical I suggest contacting Dr Chris Martenson, PhD, at PeakProsperity.com. Thanks and good luck. This is more complicated than a single variable, although I do agree that we are getting better at treating covid, and so we would expect a decrease in mortality. But back in April: We didn’t have enough tests, so we don’t know the full scale of infections. Higher detection of mild cases would push the CFR down. Hospitals, particularly in NYC, were crushed, leading to a CFR cliff and much higher mortality. The hospital ship Comfort and the army field hospital that were sent to New York to expand bed capacity, went largely unused. It is difficult to claim that hospitals in New York were “crushed”. Not really. The Comfort was sent to New York to relieve pressure on city hospitals by treating people with ailments other than Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Eventually it was opened up to covid patients but not many were transferred DESPITE the NYC hospitals being crushed. That’s interesting. You would expect the death rate to be continuously declining as we learn to treat it. But instead, look how low the death rate was before that big bulge at 130-220. Do bulges like that happen simply because the case volume is testing the limits of the healthcare system? If so, then charts like this should be front and center, along with maybe an overly of hospital utilization capacity, to motivate people during this upcoming seasonal period. The bulge is just the virus as it reaches more people it runs into more of those who extremely susceptible to dying. As this susceptible either dies out or more likely, take measures to protect themselves the virus is left with infecting the population that is more resistant thus the death rate falls back down and stabilises. Cases are not normally defined or diagnosed in terms of PCR-test with CTs of 40×. Normally they are identified on the basis of symptoms when people present for medical treatment where PCT-tests are used to disambiguate symptoms, and anything with a CT >32 is considered unreliable. PCR tests are not a diagnostic criteria. Also something that doesn’t happen for milder cases when the hospital system is getting crushed. In NYC in April they sent covid cases back home unless they were serious enough. Although really I have to think the even MD diagnoses will come down to the PCR test. They also sent them “home” to long term care facilities, creating a mass exposure to the most vulnerable. Why Covid kills some people. not others, by a lung doctor: I’m not a Covid-19 skeptic, but here’s something to consider. A company I follow, ACC, that rents houses to students (a possible buy too, gives 5% dividend). Here is what they report on Covid-19, and keep in mind young people socialize so they are at risk: “For the 2020/2021 academic year, ACC realized 97% rental collections of its total leases, as of September, up from the 93.7% realized in the June quarter. Residents reported 1,500 positive Covid-19 cases, or only 1.7% of the trust’s total occupied beds. As of late October, there are only 110 active cases, or 0.1% of the trust’s total occupied beds. Even in the states with higher Covid-19 incidents, the trust is not seeing any major rise among its residents.” This data was after the ‘second wave’ not the current ‘third wave’ but still, it makes you wonder whether perhaps Covid-19 is over-rated as a threat? Keep in mind: active cases are not total cases, so any any one time only about (roughly) a months worth of active C-19 cases are active, or, given today’s record high ‘third wave’: 75k avg infected people x 30 days = 2.2M infected people / 330M people in the USA = 0.7% or 7 people out of 1000, or, “not that many” There’s still a small but steady stream of death, and since the majority of cases now are people 40 and under, more young people are at risk for serious morbidity/mortality, even if the population numbers are fairly low. Even here where the numbers are good (infection rate of about 6/100K population, we always have people in the hospital and we always have people on ventilators. Asymptomatic people can be super-spreaders….that is a fact. When the hospitals get full and there aren’t enough ventilators…the death rates will go way up. that’s how this works, Not a third wave. In the US all flu epidemics have a double hump. The “waves” simply correspond to normal seasonal fluctuations in absolute humidity. The next 2-1/2 months will be painful for the economy and the health of the population. The guy at the top has instituted such a top-down structure (I alone can fix it) that the various agencies that should be mobilized to address this crisis are frozen into inaction without direction. The guy at the top has already spent the entire crisis minimizing it and standing in the way of effective public health policy and will be distracted for the next month or so addressing various conspiracies and lawsuits. And given his vindictive nature, it is certain that there will be a distinct slant to his response. My guess is that the federal leadership and response will be even more absent. Fire Faucci? Trump has also signed an executive order that reclassifies a lot of federal employees in such a way that he can fire them at will. Non zero chance he will scorch the agency earth on the way out. “Guy at the top..top down structure..” Do you mean this guy “In the beginning God created the heaven and earh.” This brings up a good question… what will Trump do until Jan17th? a. Status quo – keep extending the federal emergency b. End the order and let state fend for themselves c. Other? I thought it was going to disappear on Novemebr 4–that’s what Trump said… Who??? The way the pattern is developing seems to indicate it might be related to the seasonal change and the onset of cold weather, rather than any particular behavior. The Midwest is about to be completely gobsmacked, or already is in some places. Since the only thing that we can do that works is to (properly) wear a mask…and a real one, not some paper thin bandana…and to practice hand washing and using hand sanitizer…and social distancing……. EVERYONE should be doing that…..and if somebody around you isn’t, you should stay the hell away from them Lockdowns suck, we can all agree on that…….the best way to avoid lockdowns is to practice reasonable public health measures, and avoid irresponsible crowd behavior and bars.I think one reason our numbers are still good here is because the bars are still closed. I feel for the people in the hospitality industry…but bars are super-spreaders. Here’s a fun thought: The bulk (80%) of TESTED cases are mild to asymptomatic, so there are millions and millions of people who either thought they had seasonal allergies or something, or never felt sick at all. Like….exactly what does that prove? If you get it, it’s a roll of the dice…..and you might be one of the rare cases that goes tits up struggling for your last breath. Most of us probably have at least 1 strand of it in us somewhere. The challenge is trying to get the authorities to mandate a pcr test with 60 cycles, that way, BOOM, Everyone tests positive and then we can get back to dying in droves from lifestyle related diseases. If you’re young, that is even more true for influenza. It’s such a tragedy that the anti-lockdown group was also so anti mask. If you want to open up business, you should be pro-mask. Masks (and other mitigation tactics) allow you to avoid locking everything down and still maintain reasonable safety. The problem is some businesses rely on activities that can’t reasonable be done masked. Bars and dine in restaurants, primarily. Can the maskers share the formula that shows the reduction of spread based on compliance levels? If masks work they should have known % reduction of spread +/- a margin of error, then that can be calculated across a population based on compliance – that is how science works. But, no all we hear is it works without any data or references to lab studies, not RCTs. I can find more examples where spread increased post mask order, than it decreased. No, RCT shows a clear benefit of any mask with the exception of N95s. At best from the RCTs, I can see it helping if you are sick (but can’t give a % range) and in HC settings with proper use – handwashing+mask+gloves. I like the JP route, wear a mask if you are sick even the mildest of symptoms (no local/national orders), distance and practice 10x better hand hygiene. I think maybe you’re not looking hard enough. There are studies. Can’t edit so I’ll reply to myself, but even if you think that only N95s are effective, we should simply increase the mask requirements until we find something effective. I imagine KF94s would work here too. @[Louis Winthorpe III] that is a decent observational study, but it by NO means a RCT, for example, the CDC released this observational study that showed no difference in infection rates between mask / no mask groups… Which is right? Who knows? Neither are an RCT I look at RCTs, this analysis from the CDC (with links to all the source RCTs) shows very little impact from masks outside of N95 and even those have to be used correctly. Almost nothing has been done on cloth, but this one did look at cloth vs surgical masks – not good. But it did NOT have a no mask control arm – sadly. CDC – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article?fbclid=IwAR2V1hPqN0WKb2kXVExP_1UE9ARvru6mtPZvZN0w1jx0S3l3fXLhxMP_bXs Cloth – https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577 PS – I was the “guy” wearing masks in Jan / Feb, after I was told it was not recommended by health leaders in March – I read the research and felt they were right. Then the flip in June, had very little new science other than lab studies or observational studies. Which is the equivalent of taking the new C19 vaccine before any safety trails. I can’t see how there would ever be a RCT on mask use for covid. I would think there would be serious ethical concerns about doing something like that, but maybe I’m not considering all the possibilities. The CDC advice against mask use is regrettable, maybe due in part to concern about a run on masks which were desperately needed by medical personnel, and partially because they didn’t understand that covid could be spread by asymptomatic carriers. If you think that only symptomatic people are contagious, recommending that only sick people wear masks is not a horrible idea in a mask shortage. Regardless I think we can all agree that N95s work, and I see no reason why we can’t make enough so that everyone can wear one. Louis–you seem to think that a rational discussion can be had about these things. It’s been going on since last spring, and most of the anti-mask, anti-distancing, “its no worse than the flu”, continue with the same objections in a more subtle form. There are countries who whave managed to contain the virus, but apparently American exceptionalism means that we can’t follow those places–we have to tread our own messy, bloody way in the world where half of our population has been brainwashed into the “hoax” mindset. It really is ironic that all of these apprently hard-nosed capitalism fans have torn-down an effective public health response could have really reduced the spread and decreased the economic fallout. We have trashed our economy because masks are a sign of liberalism and things like the shiny object of opening of bars was prioritized above re-opening schools. Most of the months since the beginning have been wasted since the top-down direction with respect to the virus has been “it will go away by itself”. The leadership for the presidential panel on the virus haven’t attended meetings for months, and there is no hope of a new direction in the remainder of this administrations term. It’s a criminal derelection of duty on the part of the US leadership. And don’t fall for the “CDC said don’t wear masks”. They were to be reserved for health-care workers. Well, where the ‘eff is the ramped up production of masks in the next 9 months? No where–because of our incompetent and viciously ignorant leader who made masks a political signifier. And just because you were told Santa and the Easter Bunny were real at the beginning of your life, you still hold on to that belief? Why should you hold onto the beliefs early on in the course of the virus? be an adult, change with the increased evidence. Times change, circumstances change, evidence increases. It’s a dumb argument. And regardless of the accumulated evidence, there will be always, “but this person said”, quoting the outlier 1% as sufficient to refuting the 99% Aye, For in that sleep of death what dreams may come When we have shuffled off this mortal coil, Must give us pause. Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, Creeps in this petty pace from day to day, To the last syllable of recorded time; And all our yesterdays have lighted fools The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player, That struts and frets his hour upon the stage, And then is heard no more. It is a tale Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing. The Bard of Avon was a nihilist. Nothing new under the sun. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. Definitely nothing is new under the sun. It’s the minks…in Denmark. Just sayin’. So how many deaths can be avoided over time (say 10 years) by masking? By the way, it’s been shown conclusively that the (seasonal) waxing and waning of respiratory viruses correlates exactly to absolute humidity. Hopefully I can avoid at least one death by masking…..mine. And preferably , I’d really, really like to not spread COVID from one patient to another. We shall see, because I plan to keep treating patients. People are not stats….they are living breathing humans with wives and kids and co-workers. All this cold-blooded armchair analysis by people who might or might not even have skin in the game is a little off-putting to me. We have to do the best we can, and masks help, no matter how many ZH articles say they don’t. HAMLET Keeps wassail, and the swaggering up-spring reels; And, as he drains his draughts of Rhenish down, The kettle-drum and trumpet thus bray out The triumph of his pledge. HORATIO Is it a custom? HAMLET Ay, marry, is’t: But to my mind, though I am native here And to the manner born, it is a custom More honour’d in the breach than the observance. This heavy-headed revel east and west Makes us traduced and tax’d of other nations: They clepe us drunkards, and with swinish phrase Soil our addition; and indeed it takes From our achievements, though perform’d at height, The pith and marrow of our attribute. So, oft it chances in particular men, This me as an American living in France see what the French see in all this. There is a tide in the affairs of men Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures. Shakespeare on investing……and one of my personal mantras…..lol Also…I’m a little jealous of you living in France. Not Othello level jealous…but just a little. My wife is French and we are retired. Many years ago I accepted a job that paid very well and so I stayed. Our kids went to college in the States, got married and decided to stay there and they are happy with their decision.Normally we spend four months in the US every year so it works out. I am a history freak so this is a good place to be. The food isn’t bad either. We’ve only been once but it was with an artist friend and eight of her favorite Texas patrons. A very lovely barge cruise in the Alsace-Lorraine. We spent a week on the Rhine-Marne Canal and drank a hundred bottles of wine…I hope to return someday after this COVID thing is over. Did you check out Strasbourg? My wife is from Brittany. The coast is amazing but France has so many beautiful places it’s hard to choose. In my job I travelled all over Europe and I always scheduled time to visit the special spots. That being said I see myself as American and always will. We did get to spend some time in Strasbourg, saw the Palais Rohan……and went to Luneville and saw Stanislaws palace. Visited the Chagall Window in Metz and the Bronze Age museum there. My friend did some very nice prints of the tunnel at the top of the locks on the canal. I have one in my living room. Let me see…. And I am very happy to meet another lover of the Bard. “Hell is empty and all the devils are here.” ― William Shakespeare, The Tempest If I could go back and start over, I’d spend more time on Shakespeare. I read that fairly recent book about his life, but so little is known, really, about the man…..much is a mystery…..but almost every cliche we use is somewhere there in his work. Most people quote him all the time and don’t even realize it. My last name is the same as that bad Victorian poet who lies beside Byron in Westminster Abbey…..poetry and scholarship run in my family along with the mental illness and alcoholism…..hehehe. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • In a 4-3 Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling, Wisconsin Now Without COVID-19 Restrictions . Conservative justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ monthslong stay-at-home order in a ruling released Wednesday. The 4-3 decision marked the first time a state’s highest court has overturned a stay-at-home order amid the coronavirus pandemic and sided with Republican leaders who argued the governor’s administration had overstepped its legal authority. The court rejected the legislature’s request for a six-day stay to allow the GOP lawmakers and the governor to work out new rules. Conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley Questions Deputy Attorney General Colin Roth “Where in the constitution did the people of Wisconsin confer authority on a single, unelected Cabinet secretary to compel almost 6 million people to stay at home and close their businesses and face imprisonment if they don’t comply, with no input from the legislature, without the consent of the people?” Bradley asked. “Isn’t it the very definition of tyranny for one person to order people for being imprisoned for going to work, among other ordinarily lawful activities?” Free to Roam The Independent reports Wisconsin Supreme Court Throws Out Stay-at-Home Order . Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has struck down Governor Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order, the first statewide measure in the US to be dismissed by the courts, throwing out his quarantine effort amid a coronavirus outbreak that has infected more than 10,000 people in the state. But local polls show that Wisconsin residents largely support the shutdown, reflecting national polls that show a majority of Americans believe quarantine efforts should’ve been in place much earlier. A poll from Marquette University Law School showed 69 per cent of Wisconsin voters support Governor Evers’s order, though responses fell mostly along partisan lines. Less than half of Republican respondents support the measure. The court’s ruling awards Republicans a temporary injunction to block the governor’s extension of the order that was set to expire on 20 May. Tavern League Chimes In The Seattle Times has still more information on the ruling. The Tavern League of Wisconsin swiftly posted the news on its website, telling members, “You can OPEN IMMEDIATELY!” The decision let stand language that had closed schools, however, and local governments can still impose their own health restrictions . In Dane County, home to the capital of Madison, officials quickly imposed a mandate incorporating most of the statewide order. City health officials in Milwaukee, meanwhile, said a stay-at-home order they enacted in late March remains in effect. Chief Justice Patience Roggensack wrote for the majority that health secretary Andrea Palm’s order amounted to an emergency rule that she doesn’t have the power to create on her own, and also imposes criminal penalties beyond her powers . No Appeal Evers said there’s no avenue to appeal the decision. His administration plans to put together an emergency rule addressing the virus, he said, but the process is so complex that it could be at least two weeks before state health officials can start drafting it. And once it’s finished the administration will have to submit it to legislators, who could block it.“ In the meantime, we’re going to have 72 counties doing their own thing,” Evers said. “I can’t believe there’s a state in the nation with this type of chaos.” Many Questions What if the Governor or legislature issued the order and not the Health Secretary? Curiously the decision let local authorities decide on lockdowns. Why should they be allowed to? What will the patchwork of local laws look like? OK, the bars are open. How many people will show up? How many people will die as a result of the ruling? Lots of question, time will provide the answers. Mish Conservative justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ monthslong stay-at-home order in a ruling released Wednesday. The 4-3 decision marked the first time a state’s highest court has overturned a stay-at-home order amid the coronavirus pandemic and sided with Republican leaders who argued the governor’s administration had overstepped its legal authority. The court rejected the legislature’s request for a six-day stay to allow the GOP lawmakers and the governor to work out new rules. Conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley Questions Deputy Attorney General Colin Roth “Where in the constitution did the people of Wisconsin confer authority on a single, unelected Cabinet secretary to compel almost 6 million people to stay at home and close their businesses and face imprisonment if they don’t comply, with no input from the legislature, without the consent of the people?” Bradley asked. “Isn’t it the very definition of tyranny for one person to order people for being imprisoned for going to work, among other ordinarily lawful activities?” Free to Roam The Independent reports Wisconsin Supreme Court Throws Out Stay-at-Home Order . Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has struck down Governor Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order, the first statewide measure in the US to be dismissed by the courts, throwing out his quarantine effort amid a coronavirus outbreak that has infected more than 10,000 people in the state. But local polls show that Wisconsin residents largely support the shutdown, reflecting national polls that show a majority of Americans believe quarantine efforts should’ve been in place much earlier. A poll from Marquette University Law School showed 69 per cent of Wisconsin voters support Governor Evers’s order, though responses fell mostly along partisan lines. Less than half of Republican respondents support the measure. The court’s ruling awards Republicans a temporary injunction to block the governor’s extension of the order that was set to expire on 20 May. Tavern League Chimes In The Seattle Times has still more information on the ruling. The Tavern League of Wisconsin swiftly posted the news on its website, telling members, “You can OPEN IMMEDIATELY!” The decision let stand language that had closed schools, however, and local governments can still impose their own health restrictions . In Dane County, home to the capital of Madison, officials quickly imposed a mandate incorporating most of the statewide order. City health officials in Milwaukee, meanwhile, said a stay-at-home order they enacted in late March remains in effect. Chief Justice Patience Roggensack wrote for the majority that health secretary Andrea Palm’s order amounted to an emergency rule that she doesn’t have the power to create on her own, and also imposes criminal penalties beyond her powers . No Appeal Evers said there’s no avenue to appeal the decision. His administration plans to put together an emergency rule addressing the virus, he said, but the process is so complex that it could be at least two weeks before state health officials can start drafting it. And once it’s finished the administration will have to submit it to legislators, who could block it.“ In the meantime, we’re going to have 72 counties doing their own thing,” Evers said. “I can’t believe there’s a state in the nation with this type of chaos.” Many Questions Lots of question, time will provide the answers. Mish Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. If a cop were to cite me, or heck, even hit me with a stick for leaving the house without a mask – during a pandemic like this, I honestly wouldn’t feel like that was a violation of my civil rights as it is in fact a reasonable argument that I could be unnecessarily endangering my fellow citizens. But the Government telling me that I can’t leave my house or re-open my business? That is straight up BS and it will go down in History as an absurd over-reaction. There will be long-lasting political scars (in addition to all the other ones). Some people with tiny brains will think it is an absurd over-reaction, the rest of us will realize we are trying to literally save Millions of lives. Millions…. “We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with population immunity, strict age-targeted mitigation strategies have the potential to greatly reduce mortalities and ICU utilization for natural parameter choices.” Got news for many of those commenting on this piece. Freedom isn’t free. You have to fight for it. Solzhenitsyn on how to stay free, if you are able: “So you will not be the first to take this path, but will join those who have already taken it. This path will be easier and shorter for all of us if we take it by mutual efforts and in close rank. If there are thousands of us, they will not be able to do anything with us. If there are tens of thousands of us, then we would not even recognize our country. If we are too frightened, then we should stop complaining that someone is suffocating us. We ourselves are doing it. Let us then bow down even more, let us wail, and our brothers the biologists will help to bring nearer the day when they are able to read that our thoughts are worthless and hopeless. And if we get cold feet, even taking this step, then we are worthless and hopeless, and the scorn of Pushkin should be directed to us: “Why should cattle have the gifts of freedom? Their heritage from generation to generation is the belled yoke and the lash.” The Wisconsin Supreme Court decision is correct. Unelected officials should not have the power to force people to stay at home or close their businesses. The consent of the people should have been obtained by votes in the legislature to create laws. There was plenty of time to do this but it was not done. A debate would have raised all the points discussed here. The legislature could have agreed, or not agreed or imposed conditions. For instance the recommended rules could have been subject to time limits, geographical limits or other conditions. Under the present circumstances if a store owner was arrested for opening his store against the rules, then exactly what crime should he be charged with in court. The rule makers should have trusted the american people (through their elected representatives) to do the right thing. Remember that all non-essential court cases are indefinitely postponed. The right to seek justice in a court of law has also been suspended. Just who decides which cases are essential under the dictatorial mandates? The American people just rolled over. Oh, and special thanks to those defenders of liberty in the free press. none of those bodies can abridge the US Constitution. Period. A better course would be to explain the situation in not dire terms and ask for voluntary compliance. Those that defy can take the risk they will come down with the virus. Governments may not violate the US Constitution. It bricks no room for pandemics. It applies always. Authoritarians Using Coronavirus Fear to Destroy America Written by Ron Paul Monday May 11, 2020 …. When Patrick Henry famously said “give me liberty or give me death” in 1775, he didn’t add under his breath “unless a virus shows up.” If we wish to reclaim our freedoms we will have to fight – peacefully – for them. As Thomas Paine wrote in 1776, “These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.” I’ve read about a half-dozen articles on the Ron Paul site and they are all excellent at pointing out the dangers of the “creeping police state” and warning the American people to be vigilant in observing and opposing further government efforts at “control”. So far I haven’t found a single article that has proposed any ideas whatsoever of how to deal with COVID-19 in ways that are effective and avoid those pitfalls. Well, Sweden has a working model but so many apparently don’t like it because it depends on common sense and doesn’t really FORCE people to do stuff. The USA is big on FORCE as a solution to everything. That’s why we have the BIGGEST “defense” budget in the world by far! {Best Hick Voice} Well, if you like Sweedun so much – why don’t you just go LIVE THERE! HAW Haw haha ho hep Herp Derp {\Best Hick Voice} Sweden’s model of “suggesting” its people use common sense would not work very well in the US … and you and some others on this board are poster children for the reasons why i.e. you said it yourself the other day “I’ve always been a rebel” or something to that effect. The very attitude that so many Americans have i.e. “Nobody ain’t gonna tell me what to do or not do, no way! no how! Least of all da stinkin’ gubmint!” is EXACTLY the reason why using Sweden’s model of suggesting common sense would have failed miserably here. The large majority of Swedes even trust their government … imagine that. And there are many other factors that make Sweden very different from the US. And the jury is still out of how effective Sweden’s approach will be in the long run. It’s been very poor so far. For Sweden to be SIXTH in the world among nations of any size in terms of deaths per capita is ABOMINABLE. The next time I hear some moron say “but they’ll achieve “herd immunity” very soon!” as though “herd immunity” is an absolute given with this virus will be the 1000th time too many. Any kind of effective “herd immunity” to SARS-COV-2 is anything but a given at this time. It’s certainly a hope … but it’s NOT a given. OTOH, I happen to agree with your point that “The USA is big on FORCE as a solution to everything. That’s why we have the BIGGEST “defense” budget in the world by far!” What either of us think is immaterial at this point anyway. Just look at all the people giving the proverbial finger to authoritarians telling them what to do in the vid and photos of them mingling in bars after reopening! People are mainly willing to take their chances. They do it with the flu each year. Consider that: CDC: Fewer than half of Americans get flu vaccine The Nation’s Health November/December 2017 The same thing will happen with any CV19 vaccine. If you are fearful, then stay in YOUR house and don’t worry about other people. If you want an authoritarian solution, then move to some place like Singapore. RE: “What either of us think is immaterial at this point anyway.” Yes RE: “Just look at all the people giving the proverbial finger to authoritarians telling them what to do …” Should they expect the same response from health care workers if they ever come down with a bad case of CV19? Not a single health care worker should ever have put their life on the line for people who gave no thought to the possible impacts of their irresponsible actions. So people should pay a penalty if they don’t agree with what you or a prevailing majority believe? [roflol] It’s not a matter of agreeing or disagreeing … give a finger to people telling you what to do to protect others’ health and those others could do the same when the people ignoring those instructions get themselves sick and threaten to sicken others. Not a single health care worker should ever have put their life on the line for people who gave no thought to the possible impacts of their irresponsible actions. Speaking of Sweden: I Live in Sweden. I’m Not Panicking. Time will tell if my country’s coronavirus plan was wise. By Maud Cordenius May 15, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET That’s how a free country works. Sorry. It seems that the Wisconsin supreme court still has some respect for the rule of law. It seems strange to bash the central bankers across the world, but support a local tyrant with no power to create law. Absolutely no one should have the right to knowingly put the lives of healthcare workers at risk or perhaps you believe healthcare workers getting sick and dying is just another hoax perpetrated globally by the Democrats. This reminds me of Louis CK’s bit about the need to reintroduce lions to human society. So many people barking about freedom but in reality your freedom ends at the tip of my nose and the virus means at least 6 feet away. If everyone would have listened from the start it would be all over now. Instead the freedumb fighters have managed to make it a two or three year crisis. good job. Exactly how would it be over? There were hundreds if not thousands of cases at the end of January, when Herr Fauci was telling us not to worry. There are many more asymptomatic carriers than sick people, and Fauci flubbed the first month’s attempts at developing tests. It is almost like he wanted it to spread. Don’t blame me or the American people. Don’t wait for it to happen. Beg. Put your neck under a jackboot, but don’t forget your mask. The freedumb fighters in Queens NY? I live here at the US epicenter and if the place is loaded with right wing militia types then I’ve missed them. Large-scale population antibody tests in NY, Italy, and Spain are all showing an infection fatality rate of around 1.3%. Much lower for people under 40, much higher for people over 60. Ages 40-60 are right around 1% infection fatality rate. This is IFR, not CFR. Case fatality rate is the measure of only cases that are confirmed. https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Noticias/Paginas/Noticias/PrimerosDatosEstudioENECOVID19.aspx “How many people will die as a result of the ruling?” How many people will die because of the shut downs? “The data shows 8,196 more deaths at home in England, Wales and Scotland compared with the five-year average for this time of year, including 6,546 non-Covid deaths,” reports The Guardian. It’s a similar story in Italy, where there have already been 11,600 excess deaths due to seriously sick people avoiding hospitals. Experts have also warned that there will be 1.4 million deaths from untreated TB infections due to the lockdown.” I think they should outlaw hamburgers and fries. That will prevent deaths. A national speed limit of 25 mph, that will save lives. Given that most chronic diseases are self inflicted and preventable, one can see plenty of fodder for the totalitarian impulse. The virus is unfortunate. The myriad damages of the response are worse. How many per 100,000 additional are going to die or be permanently damaged financially, physically and psychologically from loss of livelihood? From the stress of the over-hyped fear mongering? The numbers are huge. Even children who are at no risk from the virus. Come on Mish, question 1 is not a good question. If a bill is approved by both houses of the Legislature and signed by the governor, then it is a valid law, if it does not violate the state or federal Constitution. Some minor underling inventing a law with criminal penalties is invalid, period, the end. Will Wisconsin be our Sweden? People can stay home if they want to and wear gloves and a mask, avoid restaurants, etc. The other side of choices–words from a new doctor at Bellevue hospital in NYC ….The next Monday, as I put on my scrubs and mask for my first day of work, I was propelled by anxiety and excitement. I had worked ten years and countless hours for this moment: the first time I’d be entering the hospital as an M.D. It was pouring rain in New York, and though it’s only a five-minute walk from my apartment to Bellevue Hospital, I was drenched by the time I walked in the front entrance and toward the newly established temperature-screening point. I was surprised at how familiar the wards felt when I got off the elevator. The same cold fluorescent lights. The same smells, acrid and organic. That every face here was concealed in a mask was somehow not as unsettling as it had been in Trader Joe’s. It was the sounds that oriented me most: beeping, everywhere. The language of the hospital is beeps — the oxygen is too low, the heart rate is normal, the medicine has been given. Almost every action in a hospital has a corresponding beep. The superficial familiarity, however, concealed profound difference. As I became acquainted with “my list” — the patients my team was assigned to care for — I learned that every one of them had COVID-19. My list was not an anomaly; nearly every patient in the hospital had the coronavirus. Whole floors once dedicated to surgical specialties, cancer, and heart failure had been turned into COVID overflow floors. The idea of specialists, at least temporarily, no longer existed; nearly every provider in the hospital cared for COVID patients. The providers themselves were different too. Many were traveling nurses, NPs, and PAs — reinforcements flown in from across the country. Some were meant to serve at the Javits Center and other “relief valve” sites, but, at least by their own reports, so few patients were making it there that their assignments had been changed. An NP from Memphis told me in a southern twang: “Every year, I go on a service trip to a different place. Last year, I went to Nicaragua. Year before that, Ghana. This year, I’m here helping y’all.” The implied comparison unsettled me. Before I started, I had become increasingly obsessed with numbers. Case fatality rates and infectivity scores and flattening curves. If I could just grasp the facts and figures, wouldn’t I get some semblance of control? But on my first day, as I rounded with my team on critical patient after critical patient, the statistical lens through which I’d seen COVID dissolved. The numbers were now real human beings whose health I was responsible for. That first day, I counted at least 20 “RRTs,” or rapid responses, announced over the hospital PA system. Each time the PA system beeped overhead, I prayed it was not my patient who needed to be ventilated and brought to the ICU. Wouldn’t it represent some personal failure if it was? My attending and older residents assured me there was very little we could do to halt the natural progression of COVID-19. Patients either got better or worse; our efforts made almost no difference. But my education had cemented a clear conviction: medical interventions make sick patients better. I stubbornly clung to the notion that a patient improving was a result of our successes, and a patient deteriorating the result of our failures. What was the point of all this schooling if my role was merely to watch and wait? Lying in bed after my first day, I felt haggard, burdened by the enormity of responsibility and how little I could actually do. As I was about to fall asleep, a beep came over my cell phone — the resident Slack channel announcing another rapid response, this time on a 33-year-old critical patient I was caring for. I felt queasy. Powerless in my bed at home, I already couldn’t escape the hospital. The next day, a patient unexpectedly died. I was eating lunch when a “code” — indicating the patient was without a pulse — was called to her room. I thought it was a mistake as I ran up the stairs. She had been the patient I was least worried about; just hours earlier, we had discussed the possibility of her going home soon. Now I was outside her room, frantic as I peered in through the double glass doors and saw an older physician I did not recognize doing chest compressions. I had been told that the recent graduates would not be part of codes, since there is a high risk of viral transmission during these “aerosolizing” events. But how could I not enter? I put on my PPE and stood there frozen, staring into the room, literally and figuratively at the precipice between student and doctor. The patient was pronounced dead before I could make up my mind to enter. The hospital has been a lonely place for patient and provider alike. With patients wearing oxygen masks and providers covered head-to-toe in PPE, the ability to have real conversations has been difficult. Most of the patients on my team spend the majority of their days completely alone, without any form of distraction. But amid the isolation, the hospital has still had moments of genuine human connection and joy. One of my patients was desperate to meet her newborn grandson, so I found a donated iPad and held it for her as she FaceTimed with her daughter and the baby. She smiled at me through tears when the call ended. “That beautiful boy, he has a whole big life to lead,” she said. “I just pray to live another day.” Toward the end of my first week, as I prepared to leave after another long day, the hospital intercom beeped. I feared it was another RRT. Instead, Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believin’” began to play over the Bellevue PA system. The hospital seemed to pause. Whispers had circulated that the song would be played hospitalwide each time a patient was extubated or discharged from the ICU; I had yet to hear it. Relief flashed across everyone’s eyes — a big, collective exhale. Some nurses began to clap to the rhythm. I was surprised to find myself laughing. These moments of levity, however, have been few. Five of the first ten patients I cared for passed away. For a new physician — for anyone, really — this amount of death is disturbing. I remember the names and faces of each of them; their deaths will no doubt stay with me. In my two years of clinical experience as a medical student, I had lost four patients total. I was shocked the first time family members looked to me for consolation and wisdom as their loved one neared death. Certainly, they thought, as I felt, that I was just a random guy who had taken a couple of science classes and was given a stethoscope and a white coat. Over the course of medical school, my impostor syndrome diminished. I came to appreciate my role in those critical moments before and after death helping a family come to terms with the inevitable — to begin to grieve and, ultimately, heal. But COVID has uniquely undermined this critical aspect of patient and family care. Given the sheer volume of patients and the acuity of each case, I’ve had less time and emotional bandwidth to process my patients’ deaths. One afternoon, I received a call from a patient’s daughter, who was sobbing as she told me that her mom had passed away and she was trying to locate her belongings. I was ashamed that I didn’t initially recognize the woman, or which patient she was talking about. Finally, I realized that it was the new grandmother, the one I’d found the iPad for. She had passed away, alone, after a week of being on a ventilator in the ICU. Before I could internalize this, my pager beeped with another urgent task for me to attend to. The NYU residency program and my mentor physicians have done their best to make space for processing what we’re going through. There are regular debriefing and group-therapy sessions that help, but none of that can change what we’re witnessing daily. The first years of residency are known as particularly formative in a doctor’s career since our medical habits and “muscle-memory” have not yet been cemented. This experience will inevitably shape the kind of doctor I become. Even over this first month of being an M.D., I have noticed a new hypervigilance take hold of me. My first night shift in the hospital, I was assigned a patient whom the primary day team described as “stably sick.” When I went to introduce myself, I found him delirious in the midst of pulling off his oxygen mask. I watched in horror as his oxygen saturations dipped from 95 to 48 in a matter of seconds — anything less than 90 is too low, and I had never seen a conscious person lower than 70. I ran out of the room to call an RRT. Even as the patient stabilized, I could not relax. Each hour for the rest of the night, I found myself back at his door, peering in through the acrylic window to check his oxygen saturation. This hyperalertness has lasted. In medical school, I was taught that a patient’s medical trajectory is typically relatively easy to track. Though occasionally physicians are surprised by their patients’ outcomes, most of the time they follow a predictable course. My experience with COVID patients has shattered that belief. So instead, I find myself constantly on high alert. That hypervigilance is a cardinal symptom of PTSD is not lost on me…. What was the point of that? just curious I was glad to read it. While we sit and look at numbers, it’s easy to forget that for each number there is a human story. It’s the other side of “I gotta be me” in a pandemic. It’s about picking up the pieces that others have broken. do the sob stories only matter in a pandemic? what pieces that others broke are we talking about exactly? “Terrorism is the best political weapon for nothing drives people harder than a fear of sudden death.” You know, you really should re-examine the Isaiah2:17 handle… “The arrogance of man will be brought low and human pride humbled; the Lord alone will be exalted in that day” There is deep irony in there for you. Sob stories? No, not a sob story, but a very real side of the pandemic. There are the ill. There are the dying. There are the people taking care of the ill and the dying. Should we mourn a person or a business more? Which do you have the power to rebuild? “But if anyone has the world’s goods and sees his brother in need, yet closes his heart against him, how does God’s love abide in him?” Ad hominem (Latin for ‘to the person’), short for argumentum ad hominem, is a term that is applied to several different types of arguments, most of which are fallacious. Typically it refers to a fallacious argumentative strategy whereby genuine discussion of the topic at hand is avoided by instead attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, or persons associated with the argument, rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself. It’s tough to believe, but a long time ago ( 3-5 months ), there were the ill, there were the dying, there were the people taking care of the ill and the dying. That will never change, covid19 or not. Lets mourn those that have sadly died and at the same time not have to talk about rebuilding a business by allowing them to continue to operate. Interesting that you picked that verse, how is someone supposed to help others when they are told to stay home and avoid everyone? Tugging at people’s heartstrings is a time honored technique for manipulating them to come to your side of the belief aisle. I didn’t see anything in that story that picked a “side”. It wasn’t pro-Trump or anti-Trump. It wasn’t pro-lockdown, or anti-lockdown. It was just a reminder that real people are working on the front lines, and real people are dying, and real people are recovering, too, and that everyone on the front lines needs hope, and a feeling that they are accomplishing something. In this story we have a doctor fighting feelings of frustration, and finding his triumphs where he can. Amazing how quick civil libertarians lose faith in common sense that people are able to do what is best for themselves and family. Sweden isn’t a good example because it stayed open, its a good example because it voluntarily closed. People will avoid crowds either way. When the leader of a country turns simple acts of public hygiene into political division there is truly no hope. If you back up and look, the costs of the lock-down are now officially wasted. The time and cost could have been offset by the integration of good public hygiene into everyday life–thereby continuing the slowdown in the spread and allow a measured re-opening. The time of the lock-down could have been poured into increasing supplies of necessary items and getting real testing and tracing set up, but it wasn’t. The time of the lock-down could have been centered around working out a coordinated set of standards for re-opening and supporting businesses during re-opening, but it wasn’t. Wasted, wasted, wasted. “When the leader of a country turns simple acts of public hygiene into political division there is truly no hope.” When Trump restricted travel from China, Democrats called him xenophobic. Extremely divisive for Democrats to do that. Open borders allowed New York City to become the epicenter in the U.S. Ahahahaha-using the same old same old. Old cheese just smells worse. Your incomprehension of the fact that Trump allowed 40,000 people a day in from China after his ‘restrictions” shows you know very few facts. Taking issue with the single statement and responding with a debatable point from before anyone could have known or cared in the same way that they do now just makes your argument look weak. If you have examples of ways the time during the lockdown was spent in a valuable way, that would go a long way to bolstering your argument. Perhaps scientists will be able to concoct a vaccine from the mold scraped off of the cheese-heads partying last night in bars. The world needs to pay attention to Wuhan, since China is testing every resident for the virus due to reports of another outbreak. If cases are spiking there again, it likely means that the same people can be reinfected multiple times. If that’s true it could throw the whole concept of herd immunity in jeopardy, or at least make it far more difficult to achieve than previously thought. In case anybody has been asleep these last few months, remember to keep an eye on what China does, not what they say! no other corina virus has exhibited this behavior. Antibodies in victims indicates there is an immune response. China aggressively locked down Wuhan. Who is to say there are not still a large number of uninfected inhabitants? Reinfection is huge leap. Wuhan was the most infected place on earth early on but due to dubious Chinese data we don’t know what their numbers were/are. I’ll be very interested to see if the CCP keeps freaking out about this, indicating bad news. I wouldn’t put much stock in the behavior of other coronaviruses, since this one appears likely to have been engineered in a lab. Antibodies don’t guarantee immunity depending on their numbers, which is what makes this mass-test in Wuhan such a big deal. How exaclty are you planning on “keeping on eye on china”? Not sure how “remember to keep an eye on what China does, not what they say” is confusing you. We know when they do big initiatives like the mass Wuhan test or last week’s Harbin lockdown. They can lie about their data but they can’t keep these events involving 10M+ people under wraps. NEVER believe or trust China. I say “Go for it!” Open up. Hold rallies! Have No-Mask Covid Parties. Lick your neighbors. Lick your grandparents! Do all you can to make sure the virus spreads to at least 70% of the population in order to create herd immunity! I gotta say that I predicted this. Same bunch of ignorant morons who say vaccines are useless because no one catches smallpox anymore so that proves that vaccines are not needed. Now they are saying that putting restrictions in place was unnecessary because there were few cases in areas where restrictions were put in place. Seriously. Go play in traffic. I have not heard of any mass deaths from adults going out and playing on the highway. It’s obviously perfectly safe. And try eating plutonium. Never heard of mass deaths from people eating plutonium so that proves it’s safe. MAGA “I say “Go for it!” Open up. Hold rallies! Have No-Mask Covid Parties. Lick your neighbors. Lick your grandparents! Do all you can to make sure the virus spreads to at least 70% of the population in order to create herd immunity!” No one is saying to lick anyone’s grand parents. Herd immunity is science. It is what nature has provided all along. As for vaccines, at best a flu vaccine is 60% effective. In the 2014-15 season it was only 19% effective. CV-19 has mutated so what are you going to do if a vaccine isn’t all that effective against it? RE: “CV-19 has mutated so what are you going to do if a vaccine isn’t all that effective against it?” Adjust to the reality in a sensible manner rather than wishing and hoping it wasn’t so and ranting that we have to “return to normal!” It’s a real shame that this reality had to crash the idiotic, irresponsible debt-fueled binge-spending of the past several decades that too many foolish people came to regard as “normal” .. but it has … Obviously, YOUR idea of what is “sensible” doesn’t match what others think. Welcome to reality. SARS-COV2 is mutating slower than the regular flu, so hopefully the vaccine, by the time it is developed will still be effective against it. If the virus has mutated enough, they may have to update it, however, modifying a vaccine that is proven to be safe and effective is a lot easier and faster than making a new one from scratch. They modify the flu vaccine every year to adjust it for flu virus modifications, and the combination of modifying it and manufacturing the vaccine takes only about 4-6 months. HOPE isn’t a strategy! The strategy, in case you missed it, was develop a vaccine for the current virus. If the virus hasn’t mutated enough to be a problem, manufacture it. If it has modified enough to make it ineffective, which is unlikely, update the virus. We hope for the former as it would speed the deployment of the virus by a month or two. It’s amazing to me how people are led around by the nose idea-wise in this thing. Lest you have all forgotten: the world’s #1 ranked epidemiologist (that Dr. in France) has had way over 90% success using HCQ cocktail. It’s also a proven effective prophylactic. The only reason this pandemic has legs and millions of doses of HCQ are sitting in storage in the US is politics. If it were widely used, the pandemic would stop rapidly. That it hasn’t been stopped is deliberate on some level, ergo this is a political, not medical, event. I find it extraordinary how so many seemingly intelligent people are suckered into the whole thing and keep forgetting that the disease already has been, and can again be, cured, and moreover getting infected can also be easily prevented. And as usual , you aren’t paying attention. Only 50% of the population in the USA gets flu shots. Why do you think that a brand new, hardly tested CV19 vaccine is going to be any higher? Are you proposing that people be rounded up and have the vaccine applied “for their own good”? So let me understand: Wisconsin has less than 500 Covid deaths, has flattened the curve, has lots of hospital beds available. This isn’t New York or New Jersey. Let them open. Our great State of Michigan’s legislature will be the next to overturn our control freak Governors ridiculous rules so we actually have an economy when this is over. As a Wolverine, I hate to say it but our nemesis Ohio is leading the way, and showing us what Freedom looks like. And check out how many dead in Ohio, less than 2,000 in a state of 11M Google “wisconsin covid 19 chart” a moving average would not be flat. First derivative is 0 or negative, hence the curve is flat or declining. So yes, curve is flattened How many more will die? A statistically small number. It’s not just the deaths. The illness itself can be very nasty and we are only just beginning to learn about the long term after affects. First the after affects of being hospitalised by it and gradually we’ll gain more knowledge about the after affects of milder symptoms. AGAIN – most people who contact CV19 recover w/o further problems. Individuals who don’t want to risk catching the virus should cocoon themselves as much as possible. And leave other people alone. Individuals who might have the virus should cocoon themselves as much as possible. And leave other people alone. How much of this is down to alienation between the have’s and have not’s; between the income and tax generating and the tax spending sectors of society? The disenfranchised and in debt needing to get to work … So many people concerned about a few more people dying form this latest malady. I still haven’t been able to get an answer why no one was concerned with the 61k that died of the flu in 2017 year or the 3 million that die every year in the USA form a variety of causes. What is suddenly so special about CV19 deaths compared to deaths from other things? Suggest y’all read this article! Bubble-Wrapped Americans: How the U.S. Became Obsessed with Physical and Emotional Safety Why is China insistent on testing all 11M Wuhan residents if this virus is just the flu? Why are they so worried? Or is the whole world “bubble-wrapped” (sans the mighty Swedes) in your opinion? No one knows why the Chinese Communist leaders do crap. Now that everyone is mingling in WI, we will see exactly how contagious and dangerous CV19 is to regular folks who don’t have other comorbidities. I believe that nothing much will happen. But of course, people like yourself will then say but, but, but everyone is asymptomatic and MIGHT be giving the virus to others. But you can’t prove a negative, can you? Well, obviously there are asymptomatic spreaders out there, and yes, they will spread the virus. However, it is summer, and because of heat and humidity, they won’t be able to spread it very efficiently (and if they wear masks, won’t be able to spread it at all). What I expect is for Wisconsin to keep showing slightly more case growth for now than areas that are more closed, but nothing extreme. Lots of people will pat themselves on the back and say “see, nothing happened”, but really, it will still be too early to know. The results of policies are really only possible to judge in retrospect. The real test for Wisconsin, and for everyone in the Northern Hemisphere, will come next fall and winter. By next March we will look out and may find 150k deaths, or we may find 1.5m deaths. It’s useless to argue over which of those will happen, because the virus will do what it will do, and what we let it do. Only in retrospect will we find out exactly what that will be. At that point we will all be able to look back and agree that “states that were more open did better” or “states that were more restrictive did better”. Or, maybe we’ll all just find new reasons to disagree. 😉 Why is it “obvious”? Because someone told you that it is so? How do you know that isn’t simply more scare mongering to try and keep everyone in line? And honestly, if a million die and the majority happen to be old, decrepit, suffering from multiple other heath issues and barely hanging on to life as they take 3 different drugs daily, then maybe that is just Nature telling them their time is up. >No one knows why the Chinese Communist leaders do crap. That’s a lazy take, to throw your hands up and plead ignorance even when the explanation is easy to figure out. China is testing every Wuhan resident (sending testers out to 11M people, a massive undertaking) because they’re obviously worried. Now the question is to figure out what has them frightened enough to do this. No one has lived through anything that killed 80,000 Americans in 6 weeks. Flu talk is as sure an idiot flag as those red hats. That article is a good read — step back and see the victimhood-movement context here. “Now the question is to figure out”. As I said “no one knows”! How many people will die because of the ruling? Hmm? Hard to say. If you think a politician cares more about you and your family than you do, then I’d say many. On the other hand, if you believe people care more about their families and themselves than do politicians (which I’m inclined to believe) then I’d say very few. You can’t possibly know that “very few” will die. What are you going to do, prevent your family from breathing for the rest of the year? The whole reason for the debate is that we don’t know what will happen. To pretend otherwise makes you look like a phony keyboard warrior. I’ve never been called a phoney keyboard warrior before. I can’t decide if I like that title or if I’m hurt by it. But, that aside: the question is how many will die because the stay at home order was struck down? I’m suggesting it doesn’t matter all that much. People generally act in their self interest. That’s the point, we don’t know these answers. I’d appreciate it if you stopped pretending that you do. Are you serious or are you just trying to be funny? Boy am I glad I don’t live in Wisconsin. I need to go back to Wisconsin. The court’s decision does not prevent you from hunkering down in your basement, Montana. I am glad you don’t live in Wisconsin too. And stay away from my homestate Michigan, we don’t want to be like NY, and actually want to work, have freedom and an economy One can still be wise, even in Wisconsin. I don’t think that the Supreme Court outlawed wearing masks, gloves, and avoiding crowds. I’m sure the feeling is mutual. The typical leftist meme is that people are too dumb to take care of themselves. This is prevalent in the thinking behind the Nanny State and in many of the comments above. Thus, we must have government thuggery! So much for freedom and personal responsibility. Democrats like Big Government telling everyone what they have to do. Repubs, not so much. Libertarians, not at all. The right also thinks that people are too dumb to take care of themselves, hence the need for HUGE corporations. True conservatives reject anything big not just governments, because they understand that when something becomes too big, then it gets to dictate others …. just like the government. Both sides are super dumb. They should go to war and destroy one another and leave the rest of us alone. People ARE that dumb. This ruling is a win for dumb people everywhere, and we will see in the fall whether the dumb people were correct. Just because they’re dumb don’t mean they’re wrong. Usually does, but sometimes not. I assume you’re speaking for yourself? You’re clearly too dumb to follow the conversation. Why don’t you go play a nice game of hide and seek with yourself? I’m gonna report you to the hall monitor. “Hall monitor, I’d like to report that BrainDamagedBiden is not living in fear”. You’re in trouble now! Libtards are the biggest gun lovers out there: their nirvana is to have government guns in the backs of all the “dumb” people. If you look at the data, the countries where the virus contagion and death rate was lowest were the countries who strictly complied with self quarantine and use of PPE. Countries like Japan, Korea, and New Zealand were able to deal with this virus effectively and are now far ahead of the rest of the world in their recoveries. There are hundreds of theories going around but what needs to be concentrated on are what methods are actually working… “Where the virus contagion and death rate IS the lowest. “ I fixed it for you. You put it in pasted tense like it’s over. It’s a rapidly evolving situation. Jdog, I have to say you are one of the most clear headed posters here on this subject. I appreciate it. Apropos to your comment, many cities in the US with stricter policies during Spanish Flu had both lower mortality and higher manufacturing growth, according to The Economist. A rough calculation yielded that likely about 50% of the US population is either over 60, has some co-morbidity factor, or lives with someone in these categories. The “have the old folks hunker down” argument falls into the “For every problem there is a solution that is simple, neat- and wrong” category. Quoting Mencken to justify heavy handed state tactic? How ironic! Those people are at higher risk but still not very high. This issue is very complex. Governments have the duty to protect the public health, and they also have the duty to protect the rights of the Citizens. There are laws against public endangerment, but people do have buy food, go to the bank, go to the doctor, and make a living. Ideally, if government was competent, which is most certainly is not, they would have guidelines in place which had been developed and funded for decades ahead to deal with catastrophic catastrophe. Unfortunately there are no perfect solutions to this problem. Overzealous psychopaths in government positions will use this crisis as an excuse to illegally abuse Citizens rights, and irresponsible people will infect and kill others because they are self centered and ignorant. Jdog, I agree with you but might say it differently about people being irresponsible and killing others, lets just say infecting others. The idea of the lockdown was to preserve medical capacity so that those infected get the best treatment and we have best outcomes. Lockdowns change the date they don’t change the eventual outcome for the population. Only a vaccine or breakthrough treatment are going to change the total number fatalities given adequate treatment capacity. The states are generally nowhere near capacity, though there was a real possibility last month in NY. It seems that many people have come to believe that if we “lockdown” this will just go away. Wishful thinking, but hey viruses have mutated themselves away before. In the last two weeks I think we have seen a treatment breakthrough, and I expect to see a substantial increase in recovery rates. The new treatment is called “MATH+”, but does not involve putting you in math class. It is Methyl Prednisone, High-dose Vitamin C by IV, and Heparin, with other things as the doctor deems appropriate. Jdog, I followed you most of the way. But you lost me at the end. Are these self centered people actually going around sneezing on people? Now there should definitely be a law against that! It would help if you would bother to learn about it enough to know about asymptomatic spread. The decision may be correct but is undortunate: the USA needs to act together F

• • • Green Covid Passports in Israel Please consider Israel’s Speedy Vaccination Campaign . Israel lifted restrictions on most commerce and public activity, opening malls, markets and museums—and requiring the use of a pass to document vaccination status for some activities. The opening up and use of what officials are calling green passports , which allow people to enter gyms and hotels and eventually embark on quarantine-free travel, set up a test for one of the most closely watched countries during the pandemic. Officials are warning those who shun the national vaccination campaign that they will be shut out of everyday activities. “Anyone who does not get vaccinated will be left behind,” Israel’s health minister Yuli Edelstein said. As thousands of people rushed to download the “green passport” documents, the website crashed Saturday night. Get Vaccinated Or Else The Wall Street Journal reports Declining a Covid-19 Vaccine Risks Penalties in Some Countries Indonesia levied fines for refusing vaccination of around $356—or more than a month’s salary on average, according to the country’s per capita gross domestic product. The European Union and Australian officials have considered travel restrictions for those without vaccination proof. Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled those who reject a Covid-19 vaccine could be banned from certain public activities and spaces. Less than half of South Koreans, or about 46%, are willing to be vaccinated right away, according to a poll by the Korea Society Opinion Institute released on Monday. South Korea has said those who skip will be booted to the back of the line. The Vatican said it would explore alternative solutions for workers refusing to get Covid-19 vaccines, after getting blowback from a decree earlier this month that suggested employees could lose their jobs if they skipped inoculations. Biden Wants Bigger Vaccination Numbers In the US, B iden Aims for Bigger Vaccination Numbers as U.S. Vaccine Manufacturing Ramps Up . It sounded so ambitious at first blush: 100 million vaccination shots in 100 days. Now, one month into his presidency, Joe Biden is on a glide path to attain that goal and pitching well beyond it to the far more ambitious and daunting mission of vaccinating all eligible adults against the coronavirus by the end of the summer. “It’s one thing to have the vaccine, and it’s very different to get it in someone’s arms,” Biden said Friday as he toured Pfizer’s manufacturing plant in Portage, Michigan. The company is set to double its pace of vaccine deliveries in the coming weeks. The daily inoculation average climbed to 1.7 million shots per day last week, but as many as double that number of doses are soon expected to be available on average each day. The focus of Biden’s team is now quickly shifting to ensuring those doses can get used, though the administration has resisted the calls of some health experts to publicly set a “moonshot” target for how many daily doses it hopes to deliver. U.S. Death Toll Tops 500,000 Cumulative Deaths Per Million US Mandates Coming Up? In the sense of fines like Indonesia, probably not, at least nationally. However, travel restrictions are another matter. And it is likely some states will require vaccinations for kids to go to school. Employers may also require them. Expect lawsuits. Mish Please consider Israel’s Speedy Vaccination Campaign . Israel lifted restrictions on most commerce and public activity, opening malls, markets and museums—and requiring the use of a pass to document vaccination status for some activities. The opening up and use of what officials are calling green passports , which allow people to enter gyms and hotels and eventually embark on quarantine-free travel, set up a test for one of the most closely watched countries during the pandemic. Officials are warning those who shun the national vaccination campaign that they will be shut out of everyday activities. “Anyone who does not get vaccinated will be left behind,” Israel’s health minister Yuli Edelstein said. As thousands of people rushed to download the “green passport” documents, the website crashed Saturday night. Get Vaccinated Or Else The Wall Street Journal reports Declining a Covid-19 Vaccine Risks Penalties in Some Countries Biden Wants Bigger Vaccination Numbers In the US, B iden Aims for Bigger Vaccination Numbers as U.S. Vaccine Manufacturing Ramps Up . It sounded so ambitious at first blush: 100 million vaccination shots in 100 days. Now, one month into his presidency, Joe Biden is on a glide path to attain that goal and pitching well beyond it to the far more ambitious and daunting mission of vaccinating all eligible adults against the coronavirus by the end of the summer. “It’s one thing to have the vaccine, and it’s very different to get it in someone’s arms,” Biden said Friday as he toured Pfizer’s manufacturing plant in Portage, Michigan. The company is set to double its pace of vaccine deliveries in the coming weeks. The daily inoculation average climbed to 1.7 million shots per day last week, but as many as double that number of doses are soon expected to be available on average each day. The focus of Biden’s team is now quickly shifting to ensuring those doses can get used, though the administration has resisted the calls of some health experts to publicly set a “moonshot” target for how many daily doses it hopes to deliver. U.S. Death Toll Tops 500,000 Cumulative Deaths Per Million US Mandates Coming Up? In the sense of fines like Indonesia, probably not, at least nationally. However, travel restrictions are another matter. And it is likely some states will require vaccinations for kids to go to school. Employers may also require them. Expect lawsuits. Mish Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. Lawsuits wont work. It is a public health risk at the end of the day. You dont have go get any vaccine but it also means you cant really live a normal life. How so? My life has been entirely normal so far. I just had a PCR test Monday for a minor surgery I have upcoming. Negative! After a year of refusing to wear a mask outside and wearing masks sloppily inside, loose and below my nose, I have yet to contact Covid. And as previously mentioned, out of hundreds of people, I don’t know anyone who even got Covid. The only impact I have experienced is my gym has been closed for too many months. If anything, it is all the people hiding behind their masks who are living their lives in fear every time they step out of their houses and likely increasing their blood pressure. Like your very important personal experience should be our public health guideline. Vaccines work best when we get nearly 100% compliance. That’s the real story. You need to take the vaccine to help protect everybody, not just yourself. “Get Vaccinated Or Else” Totalitarianism Not quite Ron. Why should a persons personal choice impact another person the same as for passive smoking. Because I/we don’t give a crap about protecting YOU? If you are worried about catching viruses, then stay in your home and leave the rest of us alone. “Not quite Ron. Why should a persons personal choice impact another person the same as for passive smoking.” Totalitarianism doesn’t offer a choice. Passive smoking is irrelevant. HCQ, Ivermectin, vitamin D and other therapeutics can be used against Covid. Fauci never told people they should use vitamin D. It holds no interest to him as there is no money in it for the pharmaceutical industry, just as there isn’t for HCQ and Ivermectin. Some people have had severe negative physical response to the shot. Should people be forced to risk their health or life on an experimental shot? Also, the long term effects of this shot are totally unknown. The effect could be like that of second hand smoke. An affliction that happens many years later. You know there are already destinations in the world where vaccines are suggested or required for travel to and from countries. I don’t see any possible way giving the vaccines to everyone will eliminate COVID. it will mutate, like every other cold virus, and the strains resistant to the vaccine will propagate and emerge next year. And so on. And the vaccines are not 100% effective, so many who get the vaccines will still get the current strain of COVID. It may lessen the spread, but if the goal is to eliminate COVID. it will never happen. As I replied to Doug above, the vaccine doesn’t stop you from getting Covid. it only reduces the possibility that you will become a serious case that needs to be hospitalized. Probably the best solution is to send the anti-vaxxers to FEMA camps for their own protection. You can straight up go to hell pal. Hehehe. What law have they broken? None that I know of…..I was just pulling the chain of Jojo/ohno and the rest of the anti-vaxxers, whom I happen to look down on and despise. I think they’re pretty dumb….and selfish to boot. I’m actually not in favor of forcing people to be vaccinated. But it’s frustrating, knowing that’s what makes vaccines WORK….. for large populations…it’s all about achieving near universal levels of vaccination. It makes al the difference. There are no real FEMA camps, btw. Glad to here that. If you are going to put people in camps make sure that you have the legal support behind you so the camp guards can claim that they were only doing their job. “I was just pulling the chain of Jojo/ohno and the rest of the anti-vaxxers, whom I happen to look down on and despise. I think they’re pretty dumb….and selfish to boot.” Oooh, I’m so hurt. You are harshing my mellow dude. I could retort that I hoep you and your whole family die get cancer and die but I won’t go there. [roflol] I’m declaring war on you anti-vaxxer fools who spread lies on he internet. Prepare to get schooled as the data comes in. Just like your ridiculous and indefensible position on masking slowly got eroded by the facts, your misinformation about the COVID vaccine will be proven wrong soon enough. And your ad hom personal comments don’t bother me. I won’t say that I hope you get COVID….but if you do, I will say that you had it coming, based on your behavior and your lies and half-truths. Not sure where you get the Covid vaccine “works”. The CDC advice to people who have gotten the vaccine is the same for people who have not. The Mayo clinic web site uses wishy-washy phrases like it “may” help prevent you from getting sick, or “may” make you less sick if you do get Covid, etc…; my luck rabbit’s foot may also help. On top of that, the number of injuries from this vaccine in the government’s vaccine injury database is non-trivial and dwarfs any other current vaccine. Given I’m healthy and very likely to have already been exposed to Covid with no ill effects, why on earth would I voluntarily have an experimental (not FDA approved) vaccine injected into me? JoJo’s Circus…The series is set in Circus Town, a self-sufficient city whose cultural center is the “Big Top” tent. The story focuses on JoJo Tickle, a 6 year old girl clown, and Goliath, JoJo’s pet lion. She and Goliath learned at the Little Big Top Circus School, where all young soon-to-be circus performers learn under their teacher Mrs. Kersplatski. Along with her friends, JoJo explores and learns while dealing with challenging situations. Assuming hurdles are met. The question is how can we not do this? Is it a passport or simply an ap that provides book keeping for each countries rules and regulations? Looking at this as a passport is the wrong paradigm. Each country sets their rules and procedures. The ap simply is a convenient way to manage that process. Each country and airline is deciding its own rule here. But for safety knowing your fellow passengers have been testing and/or vaccinated and are wearing a mask can only increase confidence. I don’t see how the airline industry revives without it The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says it expects its digital Covid Travel Pass will be ready “within weeks”. The pass is an app that verifies a passenger has had the Covid-19 tests or vaccines required to enter a country. It also verifies they were administered by an approved authority. What is left to talk about Covid that hasn’t already been hashed to death before? I will get the vaccine when I can get it then I will be immune. Those who don’t get run a risk that I will not have. If enough are vaccinated the pandemics stops although local epidemics of Covid will continue. It may mutate but that is true of all the nasty viruses and bacteria out there too. Passports are interesting if they really are like passports in that they are almost impossible to fake otherwise they will be faked. It would give a false sense of security but for tourist areas passports would jumpstart tourism. Having to show that you have been vaccinated against one disease or the other before visiting certain countries is not new and there is no need to give it a mysterious wrapper as “passport” to give it silverbulletness. Just say to visit here whatever here is you have to this vaccination. Last of all every vaccine can produce bad effects in a certain number of people. The RNA vaccines have a very low number of side effects. Nevertheless in some people it can result is extreme reactions and we have to recognize that some people will avoid being vaccinated because of it. It’s not rational but being afraid to take a plane in not rational either but there are a lot of smart rational people who don’t take airplanes because of this fear. When everyone who wants the vaccine has it then only those who don’t want it are at risk. It is a choice. It’s a nasty disease no doubt but Covid is not Smallpox not the Bubonic Plague and is nowhere near. It is not necessary to treat it so. No, you will not make you “immune”. All the vaccine purportedly does is reduce the potential seriousness of any illness that you “may” experience when/if you get Covid-19. Many do not understand this, as you post testifies to. No, as usual it is you who do not understand. The truth is that not enough data has been collected (yet) to demonstrate whether the vaccines give immunity, and if so, at what levels. We will know, and probably within 90 days now. You better wake up. There are no individual rights. Companies are more important than people. Mankind is more important than any one man or any group of men. You take a chance and get the vaccine, and shut up about it. It does not confer immunity Clearly, there is something in the vaccines that all TPTB’s want to get into people, which is why there is such a huge press from the MSM to accept the shot. I won’t be getting the shot any time soon. And if needs be, I will obtain fake certification that I have gotten the shot. Anyone Can Fake Israel’s Vaccination Certificate – Here’s How Easy It Is Check Point finds simple flaw in Israel’s so-called coronavirus passport, which in the future is expected to allow access to cultural events, centers of business and even travel Amitai Ziv Feb 14, 2021 12:55 PM It should be fairly easy in the US to opt out for all kinds of reasons (health, religious etc) without needing lawsuits should it ever come to mandatory vaccination. I think it would cause massive unrest if it was ever attempted here. The positive covid rates are falling dramatically right now because the CoV-2 Cycle test was changed making fewer positive results. So a fair amount of the lower rates are because things that were positive are no longer considered positive. The reason they dropped the cycle threshold to reduce the positive cases is that the overall goal has been achieved – get rid of Trump. The numbers in this whole Covid mess are so relatively minimal that there has/had to be a reason why many politicians, health officers and the MSM worked so hard to make a minor illness look like something major. 500k deaths? But how many were actually FROM Covid-19? What happened to all the flu deaths we get each year? I’ve seen all kinds of comparisons used to make the 500k number seem larger than it is in comparison to the total population. Just today I saw that 500k deaths was more than three different wars combined! Really? So what? What is the connection there? If we don’t go to war, Covid will disappear? The reality is that 500k deaths is under 0.2% of the population! A “nothingburger”! Then there was the ever growing positivity count determined primarily from over-cycled PCR tests that weren’t itself wasn’t designed to be used to diagnose Covid in the first place, per the CDC and other medical authorities. Dead virus fragments are meaningless. You can’t even claim that dead fragments may be a factor in the mythical asymptomatic transmission, something that has yet to be lab proven. And let’s not forget the “highly contagious” claim either. Many people don’t know even one person who had Covid, let alone was hospitalized or died from it, yet the MSM works hard to drill this claim into the zeitgeist every day. So with these two “enhanced’ metrics, TPTB & the MSM had free reign to beat the drum of Covid-19 scaremongering day after day after day such that many people are afraid to remove their [useless] masks even in their own cars! So, was this all constructed to really get rid of Trump? Or is there something in that vaccine they really, really, really want to get into people’s bodies? Look at “excess deaths”. That’s deaths – as in someone croaked by any means. The US has death counts by states going back to 1900 or so, at least. Unless you believe there have been a lot of extra deaths because of the Covid response (lockdowns, masks, etc.), it’s pretty clear that Covid has killed a lot of people. A quick eyeball guesstimate looking at the CDC excess death graph says something between 200,000 and 400,000. Eyeballing a hair more carefully by filling the valleys with the April and December peaks: It looks like 5,000 to 10,000 a week starting April 1st, 2020 going to now. Download the spreadsheet, sum ’em up, and let us know the result. You’re missing the point. Don’t get lost in the weeds. I am not saying that people didn’t die. What I am saying is that the dead count was enhanced by misclassification of deaths and that closing down economies for over a year in response to whatever sickness has killed a relatively few people was out of proportion to the danger. Which economies were really closed? I’m in the South and there were practically no real closures by the government after the early weeks. People’s fear led to the closures, not the government. We stopped going to the movies and to restaurants… but they’ve been mostly open most of the time. Even churches that would normally be packed on Sunday aren’t any longer. They’re open but the people don’t show up. The government in most places isn’t the cause of the madness. The virus, and the fear of it, is. Solve the virus or solve the fear but don’t blame the government. At least not down here. Useless masks……get rid of Trump….something in the vaccine… It just never stops. You can’t fix stupid. Come on. Even the most clueless have to see that COVID was used as a tool to help get rid of Trump. Trump shot himself in both feet…he didn’t need any help. I understand. It’s hard to admit that the narrative you invested so much belief and mental energy in wasa built on a foundation of mud. As for stupid, take a look in the mirror if you want to see stupid. Yeah, you’re a real genius, buddy. Even time you open your mouth it shows….or something shows anyway. With the the “cases” and “death” rates dropping faster than a piano off a cliff, the Biden Administration is going to end up trailing the virus narrative into oblivion… Awwww, what a shame. Oh, and don’t dare question the origin of the virus or the people benefitting from it either. Just shut your mouth. German Study: Laboratory Accident Most Likely Cause of Coronavirus Pandemic Professor Roland Wiesendanger (University of Hamburg / S.E.) Published: February 18, 2021 Professor Dr. Roland Wiesendanger, a leading German nanotechnology expert and three-time recipient of the prestigious European Research Council Advanced Grant, has completed a one-year, hundred-page study on the origin of the novel coronavirus, Sars-Cov-2. Professor Wiesendanger concludes that “both the number and quality of the circumstantial evidence point to a laboratory accident at the virological institute in the city of Wuhan as the cause of the current pandemic.” In the following, SPR provides an English translation of the official German press release of the University of Hamburg. … because one small “accident” is not enough. https://nypost.com/2021/02/21/wuhan-lab-at-heart-of-covid-outbreak-may-get-more-us-funding/ So they can do a better job next time. We need to increase the number of deaths by at least a few orders of magnitude to get down to a more optimum world population number of around 1 billion. Do your part. Get the jab. Stop whining. But my freedom? Real men get their shots. Only pussies don’t. Are you a pussy or a man? Does nobody freaking get sarchasm anymore? Jesus! Mine was sarcasm also. I got yours, you didn’t get mine. The longer this hangs around, the more variants there will be. The more variants, the greater possiblity of it jumping ahead of vaccine protection. How many cycles do you want to go through? How much economic damage do you want? “How much economic damage do you want?” It was governments that shut down economies, not the virus. As Martin Armstrong said no national economy has been shut down before in human history, for such a thing. Has anyone anywhere outlined what the wider aim of vaccination is ? Is the idea herd immunity within countries so that those not vaccinated are allowed out eventually without being a possible burden to the country ? It’s quite new that, getting people who don’t comply with restrictions or with vaccination mandate being considered a burden or menace. Those vaccinated are not going to fear the unvaccinated surely, so really it is just to spare a country having to care for those infected ? That doesn’t set a very constructive relationship, where the state basically has the population view itself as a burden. I suppose the quest might be global eradication of the virus, but where is the project plan for this, in fact any clear objective that can be scrutinised and challenged, or to which anyone can be held to account ? If vaccines aren’t 100% (they aren’t ) , or if there are part populations that are not vaccinated, or if immunity does not last or new strains constantly emerge, or if virus samples are re-released on purpose by any number of people who might have collected them, then the virus will remain. So this becomes a series of possibly endless national pursuits to erase the virus within any particular country and justify all measures to keep immunity high and possible transmission low. People who don’t agree with being vaccinated will generally accept watching others getting vaccinated because the more immunity the less virus around, because eventually restrictions on the non-vaccinated should be lifted due to that. Selfish anti-vac crowd having everyone else vaccinated for their own good while keeping the virus in circulation ? There is lots of room for different sets of people to be played off against each other, for government to find support for further increased enforcement. In Spain they will keep a list of those who refuse vaccination, they say it will be kept private and only shared with EU . So there is new definition of privacy out of it also – information a whole bureaucracy holds on a person. Heeere’s Johhhhny …. …information a whole bureaucracy holds on a person… Try to rember this is the “information age” and there are literally hundreds of private and public bureaucracies that hold information on you and share/sell it to other bureaucracies. When were you born, the 1800’s? So why call it private ? Actually europe is not like the US, but depending on country. Even in the US you would baulk if your position regarding vaccination was openly shared with other countries, I think. We are talking of a person’s political opinions after all, not the colour of their vehicle, if only because vaccination is a policy as far as government is concerned . No point being smug because of being “on the right side”, because sides change and equally you find a bureaucracy hostile to your position bearing down on you…and watch how fast you would change your tune. You’re up for 60 000 dollars to stand by your view right… or if you had that much you’d leave your country behind maybe to save your but ? That is the top tier of a new law against refusing vaccination in Galicia, if they decide at any point vaccination is obligatory and depending on the severity of the circumstance (as in seriousness of an epidemic). It isn’t only that, it sets up a whole new relationship between authority and the individual, a completely one sided one. By enacting these laws it is done, that is to say that people now live under, and by non revolt are deemed to accept, this framework. Yes, go directly to covid jail, do not pass Go, do not collect $200. One beneficial side affect: it will keep the covid death rate off the bottom line, due to suicides, etc., which in turn will justify more firings. Now, will fired workers get to claim unemployment insurance, given they were fired for cause? Breathe into a paper bag and stop hypeventilating. Suicides? Some hard words for you.. For those who say only the weak and unfit die from covid, don’t those same words apply to those who commit suicide from economic adversity? Should a person who doesn’t want to die recieve less accomodation than a person who wants to die. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • Covid-19 Antibodies Waning Over Time The herd immunity thesis claims that if enough people get Covid they will become immune to reinfection slowing the spread of the disease. However, an Antibody Study Shows Immunity May Wear Off . The survey of 365,000 adults in England who tested themselves at home using a finger-prick test showed the proportion of people testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies declined by 26.5% between June 20—12 weeks after the peak of infections in the country—and Sept. 28. Doctors don’t yet know whether antibodies confer any effective immunity against reinfection by Covid-19. But even if they do and the results of this survey are confirmed, it suggests the prospect of widespread long-term herd immunity to the virus will be difficult to achieve. Herd immunity occurs when enough people in a population develop an immune response, either through previous infection or vaccination, so that the virus can’t spread easily and even those who aren’t immune have protection. The authors admitted the trial had limitations. “ It included nonoverlapping random samples of the population, but it is possible that people who had been exposed to the virus were less likely to take part over time, which may have contributed to apparent population antibody waning ,” they said. Blow to Herd Immunity Theory A 26.5% reduction in antibodies in just 12 weeks is quite a significant reduction. If accurate , it calls into question expected results from vaccines as well. Whereas I stated “if accurate” and “calls into question” the Financial Times says Covid-19 herd immunity theory dealt blow by UK research . Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at Nottingham university, said that while the React-2 study “confirms suspicions” about waning immunity in elderly populations, it is less clear what the relationship is between declining immunity and susceptibility to reinfection. False Promise of Herd Immunity Nature.Com discusses the false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 . Proposals to largely let the virus run its course — embraced by Donald Trump’s administration and others — could bring “untold death and suffering”. In early October, a libertarian think tank and a small group of scientists released a document called the Great Barrington Declaration. In it, they call for a return to normal life for people at lower risk of severe COVID-19, to allow SARS-CoV-2 to spread to a sufficient level to give herd immunity. People at high risk, such as elderly people, it says, could be protected through measures that are largely unspecified. The writers of the declaration received an audience in the White House, and sparked a counter memorandum from another group of scientists in The Lancet, which called the herd-immunity approach a “dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence”. “Surrendering to the virus” is not a defensible plan, says Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. “Attempting to reach herd immunity via targeted infections is simply ludicrous,” Andersen says. “In the US, probably one to two million people would die.” Guessing Game Clearly everyone is guessing. It’s equally clear that herd immunity proponents are making potentially disastrous guesses. The same applies to the notion that vaccines will be immediately successful. But the worst guess goes to Donald Trump who stated on February 26, “ The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. ” Mish The herd immunity thesis claims that if enough people get Covid they will become immune to reinfection slowing the spread of the disease. However, an Antibody Study Shows Immunity May Wear Off . The survey of 365,000 adults in England who tested themselves at home using a finger-prick test showed the proportion of people testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies declined by 26.5% between June 20—12 weeks after the peak of infections in the country—and Sept. 28. Doctors don’t yet know whether antibodies confer any effective immunity against reinfection by Covid-19. But even if they do and the results of this survey are confirmed, it suggests the prospect of widespread long-term herd immunity to the virus will be difficult to achieve. Herd immunity occurs when enough people in a population develop an immune response, either through previous infection or vaccination, so that the virus can’t spread easily and even those who aren’t immune have protection. The authors admitted the trial had limitations. “ It included nonoverlapping random samples of the population, but it is possible that people who had been exposed to the virus were less likely to take part over time, which may have contributed to apparent population antibody waning ,” they said. Blow to Herd Immunity Theory A 26.5% reduction in antibodies in just 12 weeks is quite a significant reduction. If accurate , it calls into question expected results from vaccines as well. Whereas I stated “if accurate” and “calls into question” the Financial Times says Covid-19 herd immunity theory dealt blow by UK research . Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at Nottingham university, said that while the React-2 study “confirms suspicions” about waning immunity in elderly populations, it is less clear what the relationship is between declining immunity and susceptibility to reinfection. False Promise of Herd Immunity Nature.Com discusses the false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 . Proposals to largely let the virus run its course — embraced by Donald Trump’s administration and others — could bring “untold death and suffering”. In early October, a libertarian think tank and a small group of scientists released a document called the Great Barrington Declaration. In it, they call for a return to normal life for people at lower risk of severe COVID-19, to allow SARS-CoV-2 to spread to a sufficient level to give herd immunity. People at high risk, such as elderly people, it says, could be protected through measures that are largely unspecified. The writers of the declaration received an audience in the White House, and sparked a counter memorandum from another group of scientists in The Lancet, which called the herd-immunity approach a “dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence”. “Surrendering to the virus” is not a defensible plan, says Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. “Attempting to reach herd immunity via targeted infections is simply ludicrous,” Andersen says. “In the US, probably one to two million people would die.” Guessing Game Clearly everyone is guessing. It’s equally clear that herd immunity proponents are making potentially disastrous guesses. The same applies to the notion that vaccines will be immediately successful. But the worst guess goes to Donald Trump who stated on February 26, “ The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. ” Mish Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. Skipping to the real issue–which is not herd immunity or vaccines, or masks, or social distancing… Decision making under complex, fast-changing conditions subject to incomplete information (aka uncertainty) is something very few people have the capacity to do, especially in government and most institutions. Procedure manuals (e.g.) and past practice/experience generally limit our perspectives on situations. What tries to streamline a process will work with known situations (ie. risk); however, it hinders uncertain situations, and may make them worse. Along comes Covid-19; you’re in charge; what do you do? Depend on your experts! They don’t know! They get out the manual… They cover up their incompetence (masks not needed!). Panic sets in with toilet paper–you lie to calm thing down. Prior testing procedures don’t work…. Monumental mess results. Quarantine everyone. Economy screwed. Bigger monumental mess. No one has the remotest idea what to do to actually ‘solve’ the problem until information becomes more certain. State governors are incompetent at dealing with uncertainty. So is the military in most cases. I could go on, but the point should be clear. What is missing is people who ‘think’ under uncertainty, have minds that are holistic (focused on the big picture), and are very creative. BTW, my Covid scorecard: Trump gets an F, Biden’s Plan gets an F (it’s the ‘plan’ that fails every time there is uncertainty.) What to do? A radical restructuring of how we address uncertain situations. A national evaluation to identify creative people who can deal with uncertainty. Let them set up their mode of operation…. you get the idea. Studies must all be taken with a grain of salt. In today’s world whenever you hear about a “study” the very first question you want answered is who paid for the study. More times than not, studies are paid for by corporations with a vested interest in the outcome of the study. When you are paying for the study, it tends to support your position. It is an unfortunate truth that science today, and so called scientific conclusions are for sale to the highest bidders. For every “study” which comes to one conclusion, you can find another which comes to an opposite conclusion depending on who paid for the study. In the case of the country of Sweden which has rejected both face masks and social distancing and relied almost entirely on immunity to curb the virus, their low numbers would give a reasonable person some reservations about whether immunity works or not. I think people may forget that the purpose of the lockdown was to keep from overwhelming the healthcare system. I haven’t forgotten the field hospitals we had here, we still have some set up in case they are needed. It also bought time to do all of that vitamin d research etc…if the healthcare system gets well beyond capacity, mortality goes up from all causes. Regarding immunity, the field of immunology is so incredibly complex and this virus attacks and provokes the immune system all at once-I think it will be a while before we know the answer to the question of the possibility or herd immunity or sustained immunity. Very well written, @Mish. “Clearly everyone is guessing”… Mish too. “Covid-19 Antibodies Waning Over Time” T cell immunity. Only 17% of the people on the Diamond Princess got sick. People have exposure to previous corona viruses. This may provide T cell immunity to Covid-19 to upward of 50% of people exposed. It is not just about antibodies. Perhaps some herd resistance would be a better term than herd immunity with respect to Covid. Herd immunity is a good term when applied to chicken pox, not corona-viruses. Suspect similar to cold corona-viruses one gets some resistance for some years so one gets a milder case upon re-infection some time after the first case. It’ll be awhile before we truly know but from the research I’ve read something close to this will be our findings in time. The early data on reinfections is no promising in that regards. Of the first 24 cases of documented reinfection, 10 were worse the second time, 10 were the same, and 4 were milder. It’s still a small sample, plus there may be a bias in that there may be reinfections that are not caught because they are mild. Just to clear this up – Herd immunity is the only way a virus can be defeated. Herd immunity with a vaccine or without a vaccine. It’s such a taboo subject to talk about but it’s is the only way any virus has been stopped or slowed. Reinfection at this point seems very unlikely in the short/medium term. News about Covid-19 should be illegal, tweets Trump NO but what should be required is equal time for other viewpoints. Sort of like the old Point/Counterpoint segments that was often on TV or in print. Costco magazine even had one! The key question: CAN ANYONE POINT OUT A VIRAL ILLNESS WHERE HERD IMMUNITY HAS BEEN ACHIEVED ?? Chicken pox and measles. At least in developed countries. Try for ones without a vaccine. The only ones I know of are smallpox and pertussis, and those were achieved via vaccines, not mass exposure. Unfortunately, pertussis is starting to re-appear due to anti-vaxers, so it may become a serious problem again. Polio. Yes, but none without a vaccine. So…with herd immunity, it does not mean that people don’t get sick…it just means enough people have immunity for it not to be an ongoing epidemic. When I was a kid, you were allowed to get primary herpes zoster (chicken pox) because it was generally not a life-threatening infection and it was so contagious the idea that you might NOT get it wasn’t given much credence.. Now we vaccinate for that..and for mumps…..but people still get sick…..mostly people who don’t get vaccinated…but the disease was not completely eradicated…and the immune response as a kid doesn’t even keep you from getting the late onset symptoms many older people get, called shingles. Measles too. Measles (before the vaccine) would represent an excellent case of a disease where herd immunity mostly worked….as long as you didn’t get it when you were pregnant…..then your kid was born blind and with serious intellectual handicaps. Coronaviruses, as we experienced them up until this very strange one (that only appears to be chimeric, according to the best appeals to authority the MSM can make)…those coronaviruses were extraordinarily good at mutating so often that herd immunity was irrelevant, for any practical purpose. measles, mumps, rubella, pertussis, chickenpox, and polio…all prior to the age of vaccines Right now, we don’t know what the future holds. And rather than better, the second time around, people have had worse cases. A virus that affects lungs, hearts, brains–how many times do you want to get it? And logically, if these vital organs are affected adversely on the first go-round, do you really think that they will be helped or not further affected by another infection? We don’t know the long term consequences yet. A virus that infects multiple organs is fairly common and typically the body recovers fine. The horror stories are amplified ad nauseum by those who want the virus to be much worse than it is. The common flu and common cold can lead to horror stories also. You speak as though reinfection is commonplace. I think that the consensus is that reinfections will be commonplace. We won’t have firm data on how long it takes between infections for at least a couple of years, though. Immunity as measured by antibodies (IgG) naturally declines over time. The half life of an antibody is around 21 days. However, antibody production (via B-Cells) is what drives an individual’s immunity. The immune system is much more complex than simply measuring an antibody level to a specific protein. This is not to say that one won’t become reinfected—we are constantly facing reinfection from a variety of pathogens on a daily basis. However, subsequent infections are usually mild or even asymptomatic (but not always). Absolutely. This article makes no sense. We get an infection. Our body produces antibodies and white blood cells. We beat the infection and then the antibody and white blood cell counts go down. We keep the blueprint for the antibody. I don’t understand why the sole endpoint is on antibody production from B-cells. The vast majority of us clear this virus through other mechanisms of our immune system, mucous membranes, dendritic cells, T-cell cross reactivity, etc… even with a our comparatively unhealthy population. Imagine if our “Health Care System” was predicated on preventative and lifestyle medicine. “In the US, probably one to two million people would die.” This is crazy. The IFR is supposedly ~0.2% according to the best estimates. US pop, assuming all are vulnerable, is ~330m => We have an absolute ceiling of ~660,000. 10% of the population are so young they are basically unaffected -> 600k. Subtracting the already infected leads to 30% reduction: estimate for the UK deaths ~= 45k, divide by IFR => 22m, UK pop = 65m, ~30%. Herd immunity is supposedly a thing at about 70%, so the meaningfully susceptible population who may die is 40% of 600k, or 240k. This is still possibly artificially high, but all in all throwing around “millions” is just irresponsible. Depends on the the spread. If it takes off then hospitals are overwhelmed and death rate much higher. Hence a need to limit how fast it reaches 60-80% First, a Vaccine Approval. Then ‘Chaos and Confusion.’ Come spring, Americans may have their choice of several so-so coronavirus vaccines — with no way of knowing which one is best. Carl Zimmer | Oct. 12, 2020 The United States may be within months of a profound turning point in the country’s fight against the coronavirus: the first working vaccine. Demonstrating that a new vaccine was safe and effective in less than a year would shatter the record for speed, the result of seven-day work weeks for scientists and billions of dollars of investment by the government. Provided enough people can get one, the vaccine may slow a pandemic that has already killed a million people worldwide. It’s tempting to look at the first vaccine as President Trump does: an on-off switch that will bring back life as we know it. “As soon as it’s given the go-ahead, we will get it out, defeat the virus,” he said at a September news conference. But vaccine experts say we should prepare instead for a perplexing, frustrating year. …. “Attempting to reach herd immunity via targeted infections is simply ludicrous,” Andersen says. “In the US, probably one to two million people would die.” And that is NOT a large number against a population of 330+ million! And please don’t give me the crap about “but if it was YOUR relative…”. It wouldn’t make any difference at all to me. Stay healthy, hope for the best. Others who have looked in to the antibody testing situation may know better (please chime in), but it’s my understanding the accuracy of antibody tests is … a lot worse than you think. As in, don’t take sure-win bets from guys in white coats or pocket protectors. Too, last I looked at the FDA site, the accuracy of the tests used to detect whether you have the disease right now is dependent on the stage of the disease you’re at. Covid19 tests are accurate like you think tests should be if the stage is juuuuust right and test procedures are executed perfectly, too. Great post @Mish and great comments, @Webej False negatives are far more likely than a false positive. So if you are trying to determine infections they work You mean if you’re trying to determine a floor to the number of infections? That is, for being OK with the results dialed toward getting more FNs? I’m not sure where these guys are setting the dial. Vague memory tells me they tend to be more forgiving of FPs. But, that memory may be wrong, or the dial may depend on the vendor, application, or patient-situation. And, I’d not be shocked if you are correct they are opting to go with FN over FP. Or if the tech, itself, pretty much forces the issue for some or all of the test types. I mean if you test people and they come back positive you are very likely catching infections. the person nees to quarantine and health offiicals can use this ifnformation to determine if an area is a problem. A false positive would lead to unnecessary treatment. Sice false positives are rare, not likely ad since people get tested twice almost impossible. The false negative person is like an untested person. They still wear a mask and socially distance, The biggest problem with the test is not the lab work; it is in the obtaining of the sample. You have hundreds of thousands of people “tickling brains”, i.e., shoving probes up into people’s sinuses. Some skill is involved. If they get the probe where it needs to be, and they get a good sample, the test will be accurate. If they don’t get it where it needs to be, the sample will be lower quality. What a lot of muddled thinking. Herd immunity is simply nature. Herd immunity is not a theory or a proposal but an important epidemiological concept: Immunity among the general population protects those who do not have it. That is why Europeans died of small pox at less than 1/10th the rate than native Indians, of whom 90% were wiped out. In vaccination theory (vaccination is a shortcut to acquired immunity after surviving infection; vaccination is predicated on acquired immunity), the herd immunity threshold is a theoretical number that indicates how many people you need to vaccinate to make sure that those who can’t be vaccinated (infants, infirm, immune compromised, allergenic) will be protected. That threshold is not the actual empirical number required. It is the number required without knowing in advance what coefficients apply for communcability and infectiousness and assuming everybody is equally prone to infection. Those coefficents serve to dampen the spread considerably, but are pretty much impossible to determine beforehand. Waning of antibodies is normal (it would be inefficient to produce them when not needed). It was observed long before Covid, particularly with respect to Corona viruses. It doesn’t mean your body no longer knows how to make them. Waning antibodies does not imply your are equally susceptible. Antibodies are like artillery, but there is also sentry duty (skin and mucosal immunity), scouting, intelligence gathering, and carpet bombing. Back in May a Swiss group discovered that more than 50% of blood samples antedating the pandemic showed T-cell (cross-) reactivity to the virus. Many similar studies have come to light. To say that the people advocating a more traditional approach are risking millions fails to discount the cost of the current approach; the UN estimates 130 million dying from lack of food availability (money) due to the lockdowns across the globe, and that is just a beginning of the long term costs. It also ignores that a number of these scientists at odds with “scientific evidence” belong to the top figures in the field. We already know the IFR is about 0,16%, trending to 0,10%, heavily concentrated on geriatric patients, in the same order of magnitude as a bad influenza epidemic. Or we can think there has been a fundamental break with nature, such that, as Krutika Kuppalli (congressional expert witness) puts it: We will never return to pre-Covid days even after a vaccine. We will need to continue to mask in perpetuity. Obviously a failure of evolution to have one encoded in our DNA. All policy requires navigating potential risks to the right and to the left. The vaccines being tested are not being tested for their impact on morbidity, and may make no difference to mortality among the infirm. 2nd great post Webej. This is a nasty disease that may kill or maim main people. But a quick study of history shows us that there is nothing new here. In fact we’ve had many worse diseases in the past. I’ve been in favour of government mandated lockdowns in the short to medium term. But it isn’t a long term solution. We either get a vaccine FAST, or we learn to live with it. This is shaping up to be a brutal winter. horse pucky. for the body to successfully mount a good defense it must be quick. if immunity is partially or fully forgotten over time it does the body little good. There’s some hope that t-cells stay active longer but nobody is really sure. under this theory repeat vaccinations are never necessary. @Sechel The evidence is pointing towards reinfection is unlikely in the short term. 24 cases out of millions of infections. That is interesting data, but doesn’t really answer the question, for a variety of reasons. First, we don’t catch nearly all cases, so obviously we are only going to catch a tiny fraction of the reinfections. Second, some reinfections may appear to be a situation of a “long hauler”, continuing to have symptoms from the first infection. Third, and most important, is the question of how long it takes before reinfection. For those cases, the average is 74 days, but suppose that for the majority of people, immunity lasts 8-10 months. In that case, there would be a small number of reinfections so far, but a very large number ahead. For now, it just hasn’t been around long enough to really answer the reinfection question. There is one aspect of that data that is troubling however. In most diseases, a second infection is considerably milder than the first one. In a few, such as dengue fever, the second infection is much worse. So far, the data indicates that Covid is between the two extremes, but trending towards a more serious second case the second time. In the 24 cases cited, in 10 cases the second case was worse, in 4 cases it was milder, and in the remaining 10 cases it was about the same. @Carl_R You are correct we don’t really know. My guess is covid will be an opportunistic virus that will live in cancer wards and nursing homes for years. Reinfection and death of health individuals seems unlikely but time will tell. Weaker immune systems might pose a problem though. Dengue fever is an interesting virus. People generally don’t get reinfected with the same strain. The problem arises from getting the first strain and then getting infected with a second similar but different strain the tricks the immune system into spreading it. It’s not a normal reinfection type virus but the second go round can be terrible from what I have read. How covid evolves after we start to eradicate it is anyone’s guess. What is promising is how few reinfection have taken place on what I would assume to be 80-100 million infections. extinction is also a biological concept. population bottleneck as well. That Covid Re-Infection tracker is good evidence. Thanks for adding it to the conversation. The design of the study only allowed for the measurement of antibodies, an after-the-fact assessment. There is no reporting on T cell immunity, nor the immune response upon re-challenge. C’mon, man! The question is how you get to herd immunity. Mass infections means too many people die or succumb to serious health problems. But via vaccination there are far fewer health risks. We’re probably all going to have to get a yearly vaccine. The health risks from an insufficiently tested vaccine are far greater for young people than sars-cov-2. At this point, in addition to taking precautions to avoid it, the best plan would appear to be to keep your personal immunity up by maintaining a healthy body weight, exercising, taking Vitamin D, Zinc, and Melatonin, plus a zinc ionophore such as quercetin or green tea, and then wearing a mask so that if you get it, you get a mild case. Do that, and then go about your normal business. Obviously you can’t completely protect the elderly and the at risk, but you can do the best to minimize the numbers who die. You can also try to improve treatments. The longer the whole thing is stretched out, the better the treatments will get. Protect the obese, the elderly and those with underlying conditions. The rest of us have very little risk. Protect the obese? Sure, put them in internment camps until they lose weight! Yea only people with pre-existing conditions need to worry. Did u c the list of conditions. Add up the % of US adults with those conditions, I got 190!!. (Googke says) So obviously a lot of people have several conditions, but doesn’t sound like much of the population is not ar risk Little risk does not mean no risk. I have a two friends that have gotten the coronavirus. One is 50 with no other risk factors. The other is 40, and was in such good shape he could have been on the cover of a fitness magazine. Both are long-haulers with severe chronic fatigue issues now. There is no way to know if you get sick if you will recover quickly in two weeks, or have long term damage. tRump’s Chief of Staff said “We are not going to control the pandemic”: Analogy makes no sense whatsoever. Did they manage to “control the virus” during WW1 which killed more people than the ware casualties? I have believed this since March. This virus will do what it wants, and our attempts to change this are futile. Some of the hardest lockdown countries in Europe, e.g, Italy, Spain, are facing big resurgences. This virus may not even care about our masks and 6 ft rules. I suspect in 5 years we will say all those things we tried didn’t really matter. I focus on my weight and nutrition, all I can do Herd immunity here would take years to happen, to get to the numbers it would take….and the healthcare system would be overwhelmed in the meantime. That was my conclusion, arrived at back in the spring. I suspect the virus will become endemic….just like other coronaviruses….we will be very lucky if any of the five or so vaccine approaches being tried…..or if any of the vaccines for other diseases that might convey some cross-immunity…(and it is possible that one might)…..actually provide anything close to long term immunity. But we can still control it with good protocols..no matter what….if we can get really good compliance with the public health measures that we know do work. If nothing else works, we might try common sense. Eventually. The virus was endemic on 24 Jan when we learned 5 million people had left Wuhan. That is why the WHO and everybody said in March already that the containment stage was over, we were moving in to stage 2, mitigation. The virus is in the cat population … wild cats are averse to mask-wearing and social distancing. This depends on who you ask. Some people think so. What we really have now is what could be termed in epidemiological terms a PROPAGATED OUTBREAK. This is clearly an epidemic. Your assertion, that there is a sufficient zoonotic pool in cats (or humans) or some other animal vector to say that the virus is ENDEMIC….is not proven, at least not to my satisfaction. In general, the endemic phase of this disease won’t really be here until we have run much further through the human population and we see recurrences in populations that have had outbreaks and recovery. Ordinary Coronaviruses are endemic. Lyme disease is endemic. Influenza is endemic. COVID could still be eradicated in humans if we get a decent vaccine, which is possible at this point. So in my book, it is NOT endemic. One more thing. This argument you keep making : “The WHO said in January” is a certain kind of argument…called an APPEAL TO AUTHORITY. An appeal to authority is, without a doubt, one the weakest arguments you can make….because it isn’t based on anything….other than what somebody or some organization said…..taken out of context usually, and used to lend credence to some idea or other that some campaigner is pushing…that otherwise might be subject to more rational discussion. This is the very favorite argument the MSM uses when they want to create a particular narrative and obscure the truth about a thing…..and I see it in articles about COVID…and many other politically charged topics….over and over. Almost daily. You should keep your eye out..and question this kind of “authority”….and see whether the headline claims are really justified…they seldom are. Mish, I think you need to change the title… This does not show anything. It is not even a study, but a survey. We need better data both for natural and vaccines So far reinfection seems very low. Only a few documented cases, some which involved a different strain, although no proof that that was causal. The best route to immunity is surviving an infection. This is known as nature. If your immune system has not learned to fight off the pathogen, the species is in real trouble and essentially borderless. So, if I understand, herd immunity and vaccine effectiveness will be correlated. If herd immunity isn’t possible, vaccine will be ineffective, and vice versa. So, if true, we lock down until when? This part of the equation is what I don’t understand Yes. Until eternity, or else until Jesus returns. Vaccination is a short cut to the natural route to acquiring immunity (surviving an infection). Vaccination cannot improve on acquired immunity. Vaccine come from the latin for cow. People noticed that milkmaids were less prone to small pox, because they had acquired some immunity against bovine pox viruses similar enough to the human strain to confer cross-reactive immunity, but less lethal. “If herd immunity isn’t possible, vaccine will be ineffective” This is true now. It may not be true 20 years from now. ” and vice versa.” Not vice versa. For any given virus, failing to produce a vaccine does not mean herd immunity isn’t possible. Measuring the antibodies is a proxy for measuring acquired resistance to a disease. You can keep resistance after you no longer test positive for specific antibodies. You hinted at it, but many people seem to miss this point: every vaccine humans have ever made just piggy-backs off the immune system’s native mechanisms. If we can’t naturally develop immunity, our vaccines won’t work either. Likely they are proposing that booster shots will be needed to keep immunity at levels that are more effective, eventually with adaptations to new strains etc. As there will be a reservoir for the virus somewhere this translates into perpetual vaccination programs and related controls. Monthly booster shots would work well on so many levels! They would be a boon to the pharma industry. And with the help of the MSM, would keep the fear level up in the general population. You are right. The best immunity is surviving infection. Vaccine is a shortcut. Seems odd that so few grasp this. If there is no acquired immunity, vaccination is impossible too. The adaptive immune system is capable of recognizing 100M different pathogens, so it’s likely a coronavirus such as Covid-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) is recognizable. Even the HIV/AIDs virus is recognizable by the immune system of some. However, against that, if C-19 virus is man-made and has a huge “Gain of Function”, GoF, as apparently it has, it will be harder for the body to recognize it. I think C-19 is chimeric and as such it will be difficult to get a vaccine (huge GoF). Sobering quote: “No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus”. – from “The Evidence which Suggests that This Is No Naturally Evolved Virus A Reconstructed Historical Aetiology of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike”, Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud (2020) Don’t get too excited about that quote. There actually was a vaccine for SARS that appeared safe and effective in Phase 1 and 2. No phase 3 trial was done, however, since SARS ceased to be a problem. The big reason there are no vaccines for any Coronaviruses is simply that there has never been a need before. Now there is a need. Soon enough we will know how easy it is. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

• • • “Only Realistic Option” Says Foreign Affairs Herd Immunity Is the Only Realistic Option.. The Question Is How to Get There Safely  say Foreign Affairs authors Nils Karlson, Charlotta Stern, and Daniel B. Klein. Their articles is entitled Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s Swedish authorities have not officially declared a goal of reaching herd immunity, which most scientists believe is achieved when more than 60 percent of the population has had the virus. But augmenting immunity is no doubt part of the government’s broader strategy—or at least a likely consequence of keeping schools, restaurants, and most businesses open. Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, has projected that the city of Stockholm could reach herd immunity as early as this month. In the United States, which has by far the highest absolute number of reported COVID-19 deaths, several states are easing restrictions at the urging of President Donald Trump, who despite bashing the Swedish model , is pushing the country toward something very similar. Lockdowns are simply not sustainable for the amount of time that it will likely take to develop a vaccine. Letting up will reduce economic, social, and political pressures. It may also allow populations to build an immunity that will end up being the least bad way of fighting COVID-19 in the long run. Sweden is a special country characterized by high levels of trust—not just between people but between people and government institutions. Swedes were primed to take voluntary recommendations seriously in a way that citizens of other nations may not be . Uniquely Sweden “The Swedish experience cannot be extrapolated to support a swift reopening elsewhere,” Goldman Sachs said in a note. “Its population density is about half that of Italy, and Sweden has a high proportion of single-occupancy households, and a relatively low proportion of multi-generational households.” Open Questions Discover asks Is Herd Immunity Our Best Weapon Against COVID-19? One of the big open questions right now is whether recovered coronavirus patients are immune from contracting the disease a second time. “We don’t know yet if having the virus protects you from getting it again,” says Jared Baeten, a professor of medicine and global health at the University of Washington. The World Health Organization has emphasized that we do not know if people who recover from COVID-19 are capable of getting sick again with the virus. “Individual immunity is not yet proven, much less herd immunity,” Baeten says. When a vaccine does become available, we will only be able to achieve herd immunity if the vast majority of people get vaccinated, Baeten says. Dudley agrees: “The vaccine is our best hope to improve herd immunity [and boost] the number of people that can resist the infection when they’re exposed,” she says. Sweden Revises Covid Strategy After Deaths of Elderly Spiral Sweden’s death rate is about 32 per 100,000, compared with 24 in the U.S. and roughly 9 in neighboring Denmark., but most of Sweden’s deaths are in nursing homes. Bloomberg reports Sweden Revises Covid Strategy After Deaths of Elderly Spiral Sweden will adjust a key corner of its strategy for dealing with Covid-19, after the death rate at care homes spiraled out of control. Earlier this month, Sweden said prosecutors had started an investigation into the high death rate at a care home. Half of those over 70 years old who have died from Covid-19 in Sweden lived in nursing homes, according to national statistics at the end of April. As of Monday, the country had registered 3,256 Covid-19 related deaths. Denmark is now in the second phase of reopening its economy. What’s more, recent data even suggest its infection rate is falling, and its death rate so far is less than a third Sweden’s. Economically Speaking Sweden kept more of its economy open but Sweden unlikely to feel economic benefit of no-lockdown approach says the Financial Times. The European Commission forecasts that Sweden’s GDP will fall by 6.1 per cent this year. The Riksbank, the country’s central bank, has an even gloomier outlook, estimating that GDP will contract by 7-10 per cent, with unemployment peaking at between 9 and 10.4 per cent. These are disastrous figures for the Scandinavian country. “It is too early to say that we would do better than others. In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same,” said Christina Nyman, a former deputy head of monetary policy at the Riksbank who is now chief economist at lender Handelsbanken. Supply Chain Sweden is dependent on the rest of Europe for parts, and global supply chains are in disarray. And while Sweden did not officially close, store traffic is way down. In addition, Sweden has few multi-generation homes and less population density than neighboring countries. Debate Still Rages All things considered, Sweden did not do as brilliantly as widely acclaimed. Yet, the debate still rages. Dangerous Misconceptions Johns Hopkins calls Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19 A Dangerous Misconception We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”1 of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe. Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4% of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21% of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher. Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,” akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time. Things That Are Clear Social distancing works. This is debated but there is no debate. Without human interaction, the virus would not spread. Anyone who gets their Covid-19 advice from Rush Limbaugh is truly a sorry case. Legitimate Debate There is a legitimate debate about what it will take to reach herd immunity, assuming it works as believed. Meanwhile, there is an ongoing debate about the economic costs of the shutdown, how fast there may a vaccine, what measures are “reasonable”, etc. Unfortunately, the spread of truly ridiculous ideas drowns out the legitimate debate over what needs to happen and how fast. I do not know, but nor do the experts. Closing Permanently It’s easy for the scientists who have a job to make recommendations about how fast things should proceed, but what do we do with the millions of small businesses owners who are wiped out. For discussion, please see Closing Permanently “Thank You From the Bottom of Our Hearts” Mish Herd Immunity Is the Only Realistic Option.. The Question Is How to Get There Safely  say Foreign Affairs authors Nils Karlson, Charlotta Stern, and Daniel B. Klein. Their articles is entitled Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s Swedish authorities have not officially declared a goal of reaching herd immunity, which most scientists believe is achieved when more than 60 percent of the population has had the virus. But augmenting immunity is no doubt part of the government’s broader strategy—or at least a likely consequence of keeping schools, restaurants, and most businesses open. Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, has projected that the city of Stockholm could reach herd immunity as early as this month. In the United States, which has by far the highest absolute number of reported COVID-19 deaths, several states are easing restrictions at the urging of President Donald Trump, who despite bashing the Swedish model , is pushing the country toward something very similar. Lockdowns are simply not sustainable for the amount of time that it will likely take to develop a vaccine. Letting up will reduce economic, social, and political pressures. It may also allow populations to build an immunity that will end up being the least bad way of fighting COVID-19 in the long run. Sweden is a special country characterized by high levels of trust—not just between people but between people and government institutions. Swedes were primed to take voluntary recommendations seriously in a way that citizens of other nations may not be . Uniquely Sweden “The Swedish experience cannot be extrapolated to support a swift reopening elsewhere,” Goldman Sachs said in a note. “Its population density is about half that of Italy, and Sweden has a high proportion of single-occupancy households, and a relatively low proportion of multi-generational households.” Open Questions Discover asks Is Herd Immunity Our Best Weapon Against COVID-19? One of the big open questions right now is whether recovered coronavirus patients are immune from contracting the disease a second time. “We don’t know yet if having the virus protects you from getting it again,” says Jared Baeten, a professor of medicine and global health at the University of Washington. The World Health Organization has emphasized that we do not know if people who recover from COVID-19 are capable of getting sick again with the virus. “Individual immunity is not yet proven, much less herd immunity,” Baeten says. When a vaccine does become available, we will only be able to achieve herd immunity if the vast majority of people get vaccinated, Baeten says. Dudley agrees: “The vaccine is our best hope to improve herd immunity [and boost] the number of people that can resist the infection when they’re exposed,” she says. Sweden Revises Covid Strategy After Deaths of Elderly Spiral Sweden’s death rate is about 32 per 100,000, compared with 24 in the U.S. and roughly 9 in neighboring Denmark., but most of Sweden’s deaths are in nursing homes. Bloomberg reports Sweden Revises Covid Strategy After Deaths of Elderly Spiral Sweden will adjust a key corner of its strategy for dealing with Covid-19, after the death rate at care homes spiraled out of control. Earlier this month, Sweden said prosecutors had started an investigation into the high death rate at a care home. Half of those over 70 years old who have died from Covid-19 in Sweden lived in nursing homes, according to national statistics at the end of April. As of Monday, the country had registered 3,256 Covid-19 related deaths. Denmark is now in the second phase of reopening its economy. What’s more, recent data even suggest its infection rate is falling, and its death rate so far is less than a third Sweden’s. Economically Speaking Sweden kept more of its economy open but Sweden unlikely to feel economic benefit of no-lockdown approach says the Financial Times. The European Commission forecasts that Sweden’s GDP will fall by 6.1 per cent this year. The Riksbank, the country’s central bank, has an even gloomier outlook, estimating that GDP will contract by 7-10 per cent, with unemployment peaking at between 9 and 10.4 per cent. These are disastrous figures for the Scandinavian country. “It is too early to say that we would do better than others. In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same,” said Christina Nyman, a former deputy head of monetary policy at the Riksbank who is now chief economist at lender Handelsbanken. Supply Chain Sweden is dependent on the rest of Europe for parts, and global supply chains are in disarray. And while Sweden did not officially close, store traffic is way down. In addition, Sweden has few multi-generation homes and less population density than neighboring countries. Debate Still Rages All things considered, Sweden did not do as brilliantly as widely acclaimed. Yet, the debate still rages. Dangerous Misconceptions Johns Hopkins calls Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19 A Dangerous Misconception We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”1 of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe. Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4% of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21% of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher. Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,” akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time. Things That Are Clear Legitimate Debate Unfortunately, the spread of truly ridiculous ideas drowns out the legitimate debate over what needs to happen and how fast. I do not know, but nor do the experts. Closing Permanently It’s easy for the scientists who have a job to make recommendations about how fast things should proceed, but what do we do with the millions of small businesses owners who are wiped out. For discussion, please see Closing Permanently “Thank You From the Bottom of Our Hearts” Mish Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. Mish & all others quoting generalised data – you pointedly ignore the age skew of the deaths, in every article you post, and talk as if the death rate applies to the whole general population. It does not. Older people die at much, much higher rates, while deaths of healthy people below 50 are negligible. Saying the death rate is 2.5% (to pick a number for example) is not the same as saying that a healthy person below 50 years of age has a 2.5% chance of dying of this virus. That is nonsense and a very poor basis for any policy response. I found this explanation for the lower death rate in Scandanavian countries. Apparently they all routinely supplement their food with Vitamin D since sunlight is so scarce there in winter, and they would otherwise be deficient. As a result of the supplementation, they tend to have higher levels of Vitamin D. WildBull, you’re not insinuating that the virus was created and released by our health care and pension systems as a way of reducing their “unfunded liabilities”? Very interesting. If not true in this instance, a possible case study for future outbreaks. As for Rush Limbaugh, while he is no epidemiologist, when have any of them been right so far? Limbaugh does not make this stuff up, he gets it from doctors and scientists who are being ignored by the mainstream media. I trust Limbaugh more than Mish. Sorry Mish, but the fear pours out of your writings these days. One overlooked low risk strategy being used in India & Turkey is the ‘prophylactic’ use of hydroxychloroquine–India in particular has a long history with this drug, & one of the lowest death rates in the ‘top 50 nations’. Anecdotally, lupus patients taking one 200 mg pill daily don’t get the virus–in India, the dose is 2 pills weekly, & in Turkey, the dose is one pill every 3 weeks. The possibility of cardiac arrhythmias from this drug is overblown at best, & non-existent at these low doses. As a physician, I offer my high-risk patients this sensible way to contribute to ‘herd immunity’ without infection. And yes, studies are underway….But there is no downside to implementing this strategy at present. If studies are indeed underway, and they are done honestly, rather than with a predetermined goal of discouraging use of anything other than some high cost medication like Remdesivir, which did not show very good study results anyway, that would be very good news. With 30% unemployment, rampant bankruptcy, poverty, stress and despair, how many more per 100,000 will die? Quite a few people now say that the virus was released from the lab in Wuhan. Isn’t it interesting that it mostly kills people with symptoms of “metabolic syndrome” which is the cluster of chronic illnesses associated with obesity and inactivity. Theses illnesses also pose the greatest long term cost to the health care system. Odd coincidence. Read something the other day that posited a possible connection between the virus and sugar, which might be why people with diabetes are more prone to getting sick. “We don’t know yet if having the virus protects you from getting it again,” “When a vaccine does become available, we will only be able to achieve herd immunity if the vast majority of people get vaccinated” If having the virus might not protect from getting it again, it would seem that the same would apply to a vaccine. The whole Sweden discussion is a red herring. You can’t compare Sweden directly the US because there are different demographics, and different policies. Instead, you can compare them directly with other Scandanavian countries which have the same demographics and different policies, or you can compare them with countries like Brazil, which have the same policies, but different demographics. Even then, you can’t complete the comparison until it’s all over. Will Denmark and Norway eventually catch up with Sweden, when a second wave hits this Fall? Intelligent post. It is possible to develop a vaccine that does not depend on using dead/attenuated virus particles to spur immune response. I will believe it when I see it. But anything is possible, one can argue. Modern medicine is still very limited in its capacity to invent new treatments since PCN. But can you make people TAKE the vaccine? Yes, but the protection is not better than actually getting it. Not even veterinarian Corona viruses (less stringent trials) have ever succeeded against a Corona virus. “The best immunity comes from actually being infected. If this does not protect you, neither will any vaccine. So that part of the discussion is completely bogus.” Flu vaccines annually, protect better than once having had the flu in 1964….. Flu vaccines work poorly in the elderly because their immune systems, like many things, are shyte. Influenza viruses are different all the time. Influenza viruses also mutate much faster than do Corona viruses. Vaccines only work on single variants or closely related ones. That may well be true. But that doesn’t automatically imply that immunizing a population against a pathogen by way of a vaccination program, somehow works less good, than by having all of them infected. Just the fact that the possible risks from getting a vaccine, while never a hard zero, is so much less than from contracting a potentially deadly disease, means you can safely structure booster shots etc. to where you obtain much more reliable “herd immunity” from vaccination programs, than from letting the disease itself tear through the population. I think that they will try. Cuomo is finding out that a significant number of infections come from individuals that had already sheltered in place. A bunch of polls and studies tell us that infection rates are far higher than we realise or report. New evidence, indicates that the virus may have manifested as far back as November 2019 in the USA but likely earlier. X-Rays and blood samples are being reviewed and retested as I type. Data from the cruise ships as well as the war ship Theodore Roosevelt is very informative and is backed up by polls and tests that have been conducted in the past few weeks across the USA like the test on the waste water plant in Massachusetts. All indicate that the virus is far more pervasive than thought. Arithmetically speaking, if the virus has already propagated through the population as it is likely it has, blanket lock downs may turn out to be futile. Expensive and futile. Expensive not only materially but also in human lives. It just means lockdown is impractical and has never worked as planned. Social distance is just an empty slogan. There seems to be a lot of confusion about Sweden, largely because people conflate herd immunity and infectivity (the R0). Whilst the two are connected they are actually very different things. We have no idea yet whether recovering from COVID grants any immunity to catching & spreading it again. We do know though that behavioral changes have a massive impact on how COVID spreads (hygeine, social distancing, masks, etc). Right now all we know for certain about Sweden is that it has declining numbers of new infections. That means Sweden has an R0 < 1. An R0 < 1 might mean that Sweden has had a high number of undetected infections/recoveries which is helping to slow the spread (i.e. Herd Immunity). However, Sweden has performed quite a high level of tests, and has not had a high number of deaths overall, so it seems somewhat unlikely that the infection has spread widely or that herd immunity is having much effect there yet. I doubt that even 5% of the population in Sweden has had this yet? We do know that Sweden has preferential demographics (younger/healthier population, Vitamin E supplements, non-nuclear families, low population density, societal compliance, etc) and that whilst it hasn’t gone for full lockdown it has made substantial changes to how its people behave – bans on large gatherings, social distancing, reduced mobility, etc. It strikes me that the main thing that Sweden has actually done is make sensible and proportionate changes to drive R0 down to below 1. The simple and concrete fact is that if every country could sustain an R0 below 1 this thing would die out over time, and no new clusters would ever gain traction. That is what Sweden teaches us. Correct. We also know that other Scandanavian countries have seen unusually low death rates. Thus, we also know that following the Swedish model leads to about 5x more deaths than they saw in Iceland, Denmark, and Norway. Five times higher deaths when you start from a very low level may be acceptable. Would it also lead to a 5x higher death rate if used in US, where the base death rate is already high? Why are deaths so high in Brazil that they are just digging mass graves? Is the US more like Brazil, or more like Sweden? If Covid 19 is as infectious as they say, we can flatten out the curve, but the area under the curve will be the same, unless we developed a cure. Otherwise, summer month will eradicate the disease. Why is no one talking about the actual strategy – manage the virus? Who thinks the strategy was to shutdown forever? We only shut down temporarily because of the CDC’s inability to test. Write about the best strategy – beat the virus – which has worked in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Australia, and Singapore among other places. California has a “manage the virus” strategy and only shutdown temporarily because of the CDC’s inability to test. In mid-March we only had results on about 1,000 tests per day for a population of 40 million. Now we have daily results on more than 40,000 and growing. Check out the Covid 19 tracking project for daily testing. Newsom has hired more than 20,000 contact tracers and will roll out new technology. He is very popular in CA now. People want leaders who take action and produce measurable results. I can’t stress enough how important it is to frame the debate appropriately. We don’t have to make a crude choice between doing nothing or locking down forever. I appreciate your clear attempt to write a balanced article. There is a lot we don’t know, that the ‘experts’ don’t know, so lots of room for debate. I don’t agree with you on some of this, but it is neither interesting nor productive to read only articles that agree with one’s own position. Great to have a forum where lots of different views can be discussed freely, from conspiracy ideas to unconventional medical theories to economic analysis. if we accept some of the numbers in this article that NYC has 15% infected, and that results in 1 in 500 deaths and that we need 70% infected to get herd immunity then for the US we’d be looking at about 3 million deaths. It would really suck if we killed off appoximately 7% of our 65+ population and it turns out you can still get the virus again. not to mention long term health effects which are not understood As the FT (and you) said, Sweden’s economics also depends on other countries. However, economics is not only about GDP. In the link at the end of this article “Closing Permanently ‘Thank You From the Bottom of Our Hearts’”, it is a story a hair studio was forced to close permanently. The FT article, on the hand, also tells a story about a small shop: “Mickes, unlike most record shops in Europe, is still open for business. The compact store in southern Stockholm, crammed with thousands of vinyl LPs, last week enjoyed a steady stream of customers taking advantage of Sweden’s no-lockdown approach to coronavirus.” I suspect that small businesses are more likely to survive had countries took Sweden’s approach. What would happen to those records, if Sweden was locked down for two months, like Wuhan? Once lockdown is over, assuming tastes remain the same, people would go back to wanting to buy records, wouldn’t they? And the records would still be there. Whether “the economy” gets poorer from lockdown, depends on how many resources the lockdown prevents from being produced, MINUS the number of resources lockdown prevents from being consumed. In addition to a delta arising from consumer preference changes, which leaves pre lockdown resource allocation currently suboptimal. Many things do decay as they sit there. But most assets of an industrial economy, don’t decay as fast as food pre refrigeration. Real economies are much more resilient than that, by now. Leaving the very likely possibility that the main “hit” to the economy from the pandemic, is not “lockdowns”, but rather preference changes resulting in pre-pandemic organization of productive means now being very far from optimal. If noone wants to sit close together in restaurants, on cruise ships nor on airplanes, then, yes, there’s an economic “hit.” But not from “lockdowns.” Instead, the “hit” is just a free market’s way of telling participants that different things are valued now, so they should busy themselves supplying what is now wanted, rather than what was wanted before. So you have change, but not in any a priori positive nor negative way. Just change, that’s all. Stop focusing on deaths. 50% of those hospitalized are not old. These people leave in poor shape. Even those deemed not sick enough to be hospitalized have been found to have lung damage. Please put your comments in some type of perspective. The flu increases stroke risk. Swine flu causes kidney damage. EBV causes cancer. Shutdown? Covid-19 is a coronavirus, related to Sars and Mers, among others. I do not believe that there has ever been a vaccine developed for any related coronaviruses. Why would we assume that Covid-19 would be any different? If so, herd immunity — meaning, we’re all gonna get it and either live or die — is the only option left. Yes, coronavirii are a cause of the common cold. Saw a figure of 25-30%. So while there are very big $ to be made from a vaccine, an effective treatment might be the best bet. If folk can get it and mostly just get flu symptoms, then life can move on. In many countries, such as the US it is now too widespread to control, so time for Plan B There was a vaccine developed for SARS. It was successful in Phase 1 and 2 trials, but by the time it was ready for Phase 3, SARS was no longer a problem, so no one was willing to pay for the Phase 3 trial. It is technically correct that there was no approved vaccine for SARS, but there is every reason to believe that if SARS would have continued to be a problem, one would be available. Of course Sweden’s economy will just as hard hit as everyone else’s. If the rest of the world is imploding economically, there’s no way Sweden can avoid getting swept up in that. You (and Johns Hopkins) missed a significant point – we do not yet know the extent of the population that has been infected. We only know the portion who had symptoms severe enough to require medical care. Much of the discussion is based on erroneous data, namely a false % of people infected. But some have blind faith in experts who need to feel important. C’mon now! If someone with a bunch of letters pinned to their name says something, it must be correct,no? The studies I remember from the west coast (San Diego, I think) suggested that the number of infected was 50-80x larger than those counted. However, even with that type of multiplier, the percent infected in that test area was only 5-10%. Far below herd immunity levels. It is counterproductive to resort to disinformation and lies to attempt to drive home a point. “Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,” akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk.” Unless you are a 75 year-old partygoer with diabetes and emphysema, you are not going to increase your risk of dying by going to such an imaginary party. Why even use such a ridiculous line of argument? The NYC data as well as data from Sweden and other countries illustrates the low risk of death from COVID-19 in younger healthy people without comorbidities. Even if you are 75 years old without a comorbidity, the risk is very low. There is no guarantee that there will be an effective vaccine. ““We don’t know yet if having the virus protects you from getting it again,” says Jared Baeten, a professor of medicine and global health at the University of Washington.” How many times have you had the flu? COVID-19 is a risk for old sick people, that is irrefutable. They have no immunity to the virus. By preventing the future old sick people from developing immunity to the virus, we are condemning them to similar risk. So if I went to a Covid party and got infected, my elderly father who lives with me would have no risk? How about all of his elderly friends? Yes, your elderly father would have significant risk if he were obese, had type 2 diabetes, or chronic health problems including respiratory disease like emphysema. But when did we get into the situation where we will shut down the economy to try to protect every life? You father under the above scenarios would also be at risk of dying from the flu, from the swine flu, and from other bacterial and viral diseases, even from wood smoke from your neighbor’s fireplace. Shall we shut down the economy to protect him from every possible threat? So why is it impossible to not reasonably open up and still be safe? I went to an outdoor restaurant yesterday. It was fairly windy and I sat up-wind from everyone else. My buddy and I sat across the table from each other with a cross-wind between us. The menu and utensils were all paper/plastic and disposable. All seating was at least 6 feet apart. The waitresses wore masks and disposable gloves. The beer was served in plastic cups. The shrimp platter was properly cooked and served hot. Tables were wiped down with Clorox wipes as soon as you got up to leave. There was a hand-sanitizer dispenser on the wall on the way out. I wear a mask into every store I go into. If the hired help doesn’t wear a mask, I simply don’t go in. They’re the people most likely to catch this. And if management doesn’t care about them, they’re certainly not going to care about you. I expect to get COVID on my hands from anything I touch. So I minimize touching, and use hand-sanitizer as soon as I get back to my car. I wipe down anything I buy when I get home, and thoroughly wash my hands. This whole process adds 10 minutes to my day. Not a big deal at all. I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you. How do you eat/drink with a mask on? Do you think that if you had the virus or someone else near you had the virus that the times where you don’t have you mouth/nose covered could provide entry/exit points for the virus? Do you read? Your points were answered in the original post. australia has been successful at reducing the pandemic and have common sense strategy to release from lockdown. Herd immunity may end up being the best we can do, but that will result in far more sickness and death. We’re not remotely out of the woods yet, plus we’ll probably have another outbreak this autumn. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for a while if our strategy is to allow everyone to catch the virus and let the chips fall where they may. Bumpy ride it is then. The process of dying starts on the moment of birth. Let’s make living worthwhile….out there. Lots of people are pinning hopes on a vaccine to save us. But we know that the flu vaccines yearly success ranges from 10-60%. And we also know that large numbers of people in the USA (not just the rabid anti-vaxxer’s) refuse to get flu shots each year. That isn’t going to change with a CV19 vaccine. To wit: Fastcompany 05-09-20 An alarming number of Americans say they will not get a COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available As Big Pharma races to develop a COVID-19 vaccine that could save millions of lives globally, nearly 1 in 5 Americans are saying they won’t get vaccinated if and when it arrives. I’ll wait a year or two. Sometimes things go wrong. If no one is growing antlers in 2022, I’ll get a shot. Can we all agree to ignore anyone who talks about Sweden’s population density? It’ll save a lot of time and energy – at no-cost. “We don’t know yet if having the virus protects you from getting it again,” says Jared Baeten That is a very, very telling statement. Exactly how is it possible that “we don’t know”? Presumably there have been quite a number of people who have had Covid19 and have survived. And no one has kept track of whether they get it again? Now, whether immunity lasts for long, or whether the virus is mutating away from natural immunity? Those are other questions. But, if you don’t get immunity, don’t count on a vaccine real soon now. The antibody question is an important one for sure. This is why I wish China gave honest data, since their longer timeline would show what reinfection rates the rest of the world can expect in coming months. Individual immunity post infection which lasts 3 seconds, isn’t all that useful for building herd immunity. And while there may have been a few patients who recovered more than 3 seconds ago, there are precious few who recovered more than 3 months ago. Which is also a bit short, wrt effective “herd immunity.” I believe Swedens’ strategy fits the best for most of America. Not places like New York/New Jersey, for obvious reasons. America cannot replicate China/Asian countries strategies, due to hipaa. Also, a good number of americans will not self quaratine, even if instructed to do so. 3 articles on Sweden, and you can see Mish is softening on their strategy. Sweden has failed their elderly, but has offered opportunities to their working class youth in the worst pandemic in 100 years. The c19 lockdown occurred because of a modelled death rate at Spanish Flu levels (like 2-5% of the population). Random antibody testing is suggesting true death rate of 0.2% with the risk concentrated amongst the very old and sick. Meanwhile, yet again, the Gen Z and Millenials taking the hit for the Baby Boomers and our economy is in danger of a major meltdown. Fed balance sheet going exponential, national debt up what $4 trillion in FY2020. We are dead, economically as a nation if we don’t reopen and soon. Code Review of Ferguson’s Model by Sue Denim (not the author’s real name) 5 May 2020 Imperial finally released a derivative of Ferguson’s code. I figured I’d do a review of it and send you some of the things I noticed. I don’t know your background so apologies if some of this is pitched at the wrong level. The boomers aren’t even in the high risk group. My mother is, and she is the Silent Generation. I’m not even eligible for SS yet. And the Viral death rate In this county is 0.003%. Yeah, we panicked for nothing. How much thinner will the herd be to achieve herd immunity? What’s a few hundred thousand more dead one way or another? Most of them have diseases that have crippled them and left them hanging onto their lives by a thread. 3 million people die in the USA annually. That’s every single freaking year! andno one seems to get very excited about it. Genomic analysis has one Korean guy bar-hopping and infecting 50 others in a single evening, and potentially exposing 7200 others. Something this infectious and deadly, to the sick and elderly, is utterly incompatible with a “business as usual” economic environment. Millions of people won’t have to be told to stay home if a half dozen such episodes break out here. We need reliable, accurate testing with quick results, an antiviral cocktail on or near symptom onset that works, and isolation-til-further-notice for the vulnerable. Everybody else needs to get back to work, wearing masks, etc. while there’s still an economy to go back to. I don’t need no stinkin’ mask! When I am forced to wear one, I pull it down below my nose,as so many others I see do also or if I think I can get away with it w/o a major confrontation with store employees, I drop it below my chin. I know this is a new virus but the experts haven’t been right about very much so there’s not much reason to believe anything they say. Face masks don’t work? The Who has been a complete failure, maybe intentionally? The natural vs lab created debate is over The mortality rate is much lower than any of them predicted End the lockdown, give the people good honest advice and get on with the show. This virus is here for the duration and the “experts” have almost always been wrong. How many of the deaths can be laid squarely at the door of the politicians and their lackeys in the medical administration bureaucracy who have restricted HCQ+zinc+azithromyacin as treatment? My friend in Colorado with covid was treated with that regimen, and cleared up in two days. Wait a minute… in your prior posts you’re claiming there are no deaths, now your hawking a snake oil cure? Go home, Jared. You’re drunk. HCQ trials abandoned in several countries due to side effects and no improvement of death rates. Zinc sure can’t hurt, unless in the form of a slab of metal. And the 3rd one is an anti-biotic ?? The story on HCQ is simple. If given early, when the virus is replicating, it helps tremendously. If given late, by the time the patient is hospitalized, and the patient’s heart is damaged, it makes things worse because it can have mild effects on the heart, which would be a problem in an already damaged heart situation. In the US, the only studies have involved patients who were given HCQ late, so as you would expect, it didn’t help. The most telling study, though, was a study from Italy. They looked at 65,000 patients who were already taking HCQ for lupus or arthritis. If they had fared the same as the average people in Italy, you would have expected about 430 cases of Covid19, and about 35 deaths. Instead they found only 20 cases, and not one of those needed hospitalization, much less died. Now that’s a truly remarkable difference! There is no question that HCQ works, but only if given at the first exposure, or at least, very early, while symptoms are mild. By the time a patient is presenting at the hospital, the virus has already replicated, and it’s time to move on to anti-inflammatories, anti-oxidants, and anti-coagulants. Here’s an analogy. Say you have a dam, and it starts to leak, will some leak patch help? Well, if you get there early, yes. But if you wait, the leak will grow and grow, and then burst. Leak patch will no longer help. Instead you need to use sandbags and other things downstream to minimize the damage until the dam is reconstructed. “The story on HCQ is simple. If given early, when the virus is replicating, it helps tremendously. ” If it was that simple, everyone prophylactically taking a subtoxic swig of the stuff every other day, would end the pandemic….. “How many of the deaths can be laid squarely at the door of the politicians and their lackeys in the medical administration bureaucracy who have restricted HCQ+zinc+azithromyacin as treatment?” Eh…, a good bit fewer than the number saved by not partying it up, with whatever weirdo toxic concoction some dude may feel compelled to imbibe, for fun, profit, naivete and superstition…? So the data that is being used is pretty bad all around. From tests being contaminated to not working to false positives/negatives to goats and fruit testing positive. The data on deaths varies by country as they are counting them differently. In the USA death “WITH” covid-19 is being counted as death “FROM” covid-19. So some are suggesting to look for excess deaths which is a good idea. If we are in a true pandemic then we should see more deaths than usual. “ https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html “ Click New York state and then go through weeks 1 to 16 and then get the “Total Deaths” from the bottom right. First 4 months is 39,005 The yearly data on deaths for New York state are here and 2014-17 average about 120,000 a year “ https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm “ So we expect approximately 40,000 deaths in 1/3rd of the year and we have 39,005. Now this doesn’t take seasonal variations, late reporting or other factors into account but it will be interesting at the end of the year to see. As of now there are no excess deaths in the state of New York. I chose it because it is the worst hit and if excess deaths were going to show up you think it would be there. Excellent points, TRM. Has a death count .CSV file for each state by week for 2019/2020. Yeah, NY has 4 weeks starting late March that peak at a bit more than double the previous year’s norm. NJ has a triple week peak around the same time. WA has nothing unusual. CA is a bit high, similar to early 2019. LA has an April bump of sorts, if you look closely. And, the old folks home, FL? Magnifying glass shows a rise. FL is the hero of the USA states, with their demographics, eh? Given the 80/20 nature of disease-spread, it doesn’t seem overly surprising that the Taiwans of the world have handled this thing’s first round extremely well. Stop super-spreaders. Period. And, perhaps, keep tottering people away from others? TRM the fluview website has data from prior years for their dataset, so I’m not sure why you’d need to try to find a secondary source, and even the briefest of scrolling through that prior year data says a) the two websites must have different cohorts because the fluview website has around 2k deaths per month last year which is maybe 100k for the year window, and b) there were clearly excess deaths in NY State in April 2020, as Felix_Mish points out in his first line, so hopefully there’s a lesson here about trying to compare two random websites and calling it significant without applying some skepticism to your own conclusions. “Herd Immunity Is the Only Realistic Option.” Yup! Pragmatically speaking, given the economic catastrophe, this is the only option. Even if you know that it takes 1 year to eradicate Covid 19, do you mean to say the lockdown should be in place till then. Can we AFFORD the economic destruction? “Sweden is dependent on the rest of Europe for parts, and global supply chains are in disarray.” This is the other problem. One country being open in an interconnected world will only help the local businesses like restaurants, bars etc. – they will also be hit due to “social distancing” but their revenues will not be zero. Presently the course we are on implies the cure is worse than the disease. The world simply cannot afford a lockdwn given its interconnectedness. @killben At 10x current infection rate with herd immunity @60 % that’s 250k cases everyday for the next 2.1 years. The IFR would shoot up like a rocket as hospitals filled up. That doesn’t scream spend baby spend. Hope for a vaccine is the only plan. It’s also the only play. Another facet to this discussion, and knowing data on infections is erratic , is that the US has higher total infected rate than Sweden per million Or that Sweden has levelled off at around 500 infected per day per 10 million, and Spain with large restrictions has gone down to a steady near 400 infected per day per 10 million , even as it starts to relax restrictions. Qatar is taking off and apart from Andorra and San Marino has highest infected rate, but as they are small countries more extensive testing might make them stand out. Then there is also no way to know if countries that managed to almost eliminate infections won’t have new surges. That is really just to say there are so many ways to look at all of this. I agree. It is very inconsistent how aggressively various places have been testing. In some areas they have 40% positive tests, meaning that they are only testing people who almost certainly have it. In my state, I’ve been told I am eligible to be tested, even though I have no symptoms, and no known exposure. In some countries the death rate is running at over 10% of known infections, but in my state, hospitalizations are running at 5% of infections, and deaths at 1%. Now, with less aggressive testing, we could report 1/10 the cases, a 50% hospitalization rate, and 10% deaths. So, the problem is, how can you compare one area to another, and the answer is that you really can’t. In the end we will need antibody tests before we can do any real comparisons. This is from Spain just now, so no critical review of the data as of yet Wuhan is planning a full-population test of 10+ million people in the next two weeks. That may yield some insights into how the pandemic behaves in a high-density large urban area. Another, less intentional, “experiment” is what is currently unfolding in Singapore. They have high infection rates in what is some of the most dense packed populations on earth, their dormitories. IOW, about worst-case as far as exposure to contagion is concerned. Yet, at the same time, the population is about best case: Young, healthy workers self selected for a level of healthiness which enables them to do hard labor, with minimal sick days in tropical heat in a dense city with more travel to/from every virus carrying place anywhere. Even when housed in conditions maximally exposing them to any contagious disease. So far, death rates, or even bad-outcome-rates, among them, remain remarkably low. While Singapore have managed to shield it’s older population very effectively. Which does give some credence to the notion that letting young people partying it up and “keeping the economy running,” while cordoning off the vulnerable, may be a viable strategy elsewhere as well. At least as long as Singapore grade levels of execution can be maintained. It will take month or two, to see if the remarkably low rates of serious complications persist. But if it does, it does provide at least a glimmer of hope. If lock-downs, and their unavoidable, cosmic scale economic devastation, were destined to work, New York’s new cases should have collapsed to near-nothing many weeks ago; They didn’t. Cu

• • • The WSJ reports Intelligence on Sick Staff at Wuhan Lab Fuels Debate on Covid-19 Origin Three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care, according to a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory. The details of the reporting go beyond a State Department fact sheet, issued during the final days of the Trump administration, which said that several researchers at the lab, a center for the study of coronaviruses and other pathogens , became sick in autumn 2019 “with symptoms consistent with both Covid-19 and common seasonal illness.” “The information that we had coming from the various sources was of exquisite quality. It was very precise. What it didn’t tell you was exactly why they got sick ,” he [someone familiar with the report] said, referring to the researchers. Shi Zhengli, the top bat coronavirus expert at WIV, has said the virus didn’t leak from her laboratories . She told the WHO-led team that traveled to Wuhan earlier this year to investigate the origins of the virus that all staff had tested negative for Covid-19 antibodies and there had been no turnover of staff on the coronavirus team. No Comments From Biden Not commenting on the alleged intelligence is problematic. “ We’re not going to make pronouncements that prejudge an ongoing WHO study into the source of SARS-CoV-2,” the spokeswoman said. “As a matter of policy we never comment on intelligence issues. ” If  US intelligence has facts disputing what Shi Zhengli has to say, then it would be better to see the report than for people to speculate on what it is hiding. One Biden administration official said that by highlighting data that pointed to the lab leak hypothesis, Trump administration officials had sought “to put spin on the ball.” Several U.S. officials described the intelligence as “circumstantial,” worthy of further exploration but not conclusive on its own. Asked about the Jan. 15 statement, State Department spokesman Ned Price said: “A fact sheet issued by the previous administration on January 15 did not draw any conclusions regarding the origins of the coronavirus. Rather, it focused on the lack of transparency surrounding the origins.” In Hunt for Covid-19 Origin, Patient Zero Points to Second Wuhan Market On February 26, the WSJ reported In Hunt for Covid-19 Origin, Patient Zero Points to Second Wuhan Market World Health Organization investigators are seeking information about a second food market in the Chinese city of Wuhan after the first officially confirmed Covid-19 case, dubbed patient zero, told them his parents had shopped there. The putative patient zero met the WHO investigators during their recent four-week visit to Wuhan, and told them that his parents had visited another local community food market, according to three team members. The investigators’ interest in patient zero’s parents was first reported by CNN in an interview with Peter Daszak, a WHO team member who said the parents had tested negative but Chinese authorities should still trace their contacts at the market. He didn’t respond to requests for comment. “There is clear evidence of simultaneous transmission of the virus in other places outside the market,” Thea Fischer, a Danish epidemiologist on the WHO team, told reporters in Wuhan. “It seems less likely that the market is the source of the virus epidemic.” Political Bias Twitter banned discussion of lab-based origins. But now that Biden calls for further look by the WHO into what happened,  Twitter is OK with such discussion. Trump’s Accusations In April of 2020, Trump accused China of unleashing the virus. He labeled Covid-19 the “China Virus.” Is it any wonder China did not want to cooperate with officials? I doubt they would have cooperated anyway, but pointed allegations do not help scientific investigation. What We Know In short, we do not know much, including what the intelligence reports actually say. If the WHO releases another report, why should anyone believe what it says? And many will doubt denials from China and the WHO even if the denials are true. What We May Never Know Politics has spoiled any serious investigation attempt. If the virus did originate in the Wuhan lab, China will do it’s best to suppress that data. If the WHO again concludes the virus did not not originate in a Chinese Lab, there would be no particular reason to believe the report, even if the report was accurate. Meanwhile, the longer it takes to get a credible investigation underway, the less likely the investigation will turn up anything. It may be too late already, even if the next investigation is an honest one. Only if China steps up and admits the virus came from the Wuhan lab and supplies the details, will we know what happened. Mish Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. This post originated on MishTalk.Com Thanks for Tuning In! Mish Mike Shedlock Comments to this post are now closed. “These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to 19 January 2020.” “China is still struggling to deal with the fact that it is held responsible for the “original sin” of the outbreak, which undercuts virtually every effort to salvage its image,” “Recent months have shown what a catastrophic impact the pandemic has had for China in international public opinion.” No doubt in the minds of senior Chinese leadership about the origin of the virus, and sees the focus on reporting possible alternative origins as a propaganda campaign. Unfortunately, for now Beijing seems more focused on the question of who should carry blame for the disease, than on understanding where it came from. “What we’re seeing at the moment is indicative of where the Chinese government wants all this to come out – and that place is certainly not an open, accountable effort to determine what went wrong and ensure that it never happens again,” “There’s just no excuse for this nonsense” or a cover up, since so many lives were destroyed during lockdowns. And people are being forced to take a vaccine for their freedoms. Grace Young, a Chinese American award-winning author of https://www.graceyoung.com/cookbooks/ devoted to Chinese cuisine, is documenting the impact of the pandemic in Chinatown’s businesses and restaurants. Initially, Young, together with videographer https://danielyahn.com/ , spoke to business owners on March 15 and found out that about 70% of storefronts had already been shut down “In January, Chinese locals were already beginning to shelter in place” She immediately suggested going into Chinatown and recording the stories of the mom-and-pop businesses that had been suffering since January. Due to COVID-19, tourism from China had ceased and Chinese locals were already beginning to shelter in place. The officials declined to describe the new evidence. But the revelation that they are hoping to apply an extraordinary amount of computer power to the question of whether the virus accidentally leaked from a Chinese laboratory suggests that the government may not have exhausted its databases of Chinese communications, the movement of lab workers and the pattern of the outbreak of the disease around the city of Wuhan. In addition to marshaling scientific resources, Biden’s push is intended to prod American allies and intelligence agencies to mine existing information — such as intercepts, witnesses and biological evidence — as well as hunt for new intelligence to determine whether the Chinese government covered up an accidental leak. Biden on Thursday committed to making the results of the review public, but he added a caveat: “unless there’s something I’m unaware of.” His call for the study has both domestic and international political ramifications. It prompted his critics to argue that the president had dismissed the possibility that the lab was the origin until the Chinese government this week rejected allowing further investigation by the World Health Organization. And, administration officials said, the White House hopes U.S. allies will contribute more vigorously to a serious exploration of a theory that, until now, they considered at best unlikely, and at worst a conspiracy theory. The effort to glean evidence from intercepted communications within China, a notoriously hard target to penetrate, has yielded little. Current and former intelligence officials say they strongly doubt anyone will find an email or a text message or a document that shows evidence of a lab accident. Another scandal in the making. “The WHO is not credible. In short, we do not know much, including what the intelligence reports actually say. If the WHO releases another report, why should anyone believe what it says?” “The move in North Dakota is absolutely crazy. It would prohibit masks even in nursing homes. Mish (March 6 2021) New COVID-19 death reported in North Dakota; active virus cases continue dropping Bismarck Tribune staff May 27, 2021 But those of us who don’t want to get vaccinated, are ostracized and ridicule d ! I would never ridicule anyone who doesn’t want to get vaccinated. That’s a personal choice. That said, however, I think that Federal payment for Covid treatment should cease immediately. If someone chooses not to get vaccinated, and ends up with a bad case, they should pay for it themselves. The biggest social media platforms “fact checked” these stories out of existence and the big state-sponsored organizations are beholden to the states that sponsor them (duh). So, we have 2 options for how this occurred. One, transferred across species. No real evidence to support when and how this happened. It’s the natural story that would result in perhaps the most minimalistic response from other countries. What We Know It’s possible the virus came from the lab……..and there is a MOUNTAIN of circumstantial evidence for this, that anybody with a rudimentary understanding of virology and reasonable critical thinking skills can see. It’s possible the virus didn’t come from a lab. But there is not one shred of credible evidence for this, and the arguments that were made early on to defend the POV were made by people who might have had culpability. The arguments being made now are even more pathetic….like this one. https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/new-york-times-covid-reporter-says-its-racist-discuss-wuhan-lab-leak-theory It’s even possible the virus was accidentally introduced into the lab from the outside. But highly unlikely, because of geography and bat habitat. The WHO is not credible. Because The WHO is a weak, political organization beholden to China. The only smoking gun here is the very obvious (and successful) move by the Chinese military to destroy whatever physical and archival evidence that might have made a real investigation possible…..and  the disappearance and possible imprisonment of honest Chinese people involved who might have shed some light on what really happened. This pandemic was most likely the result of a phenomenon that involved American corporate money chasing big bucks in vaccine and/or other virus related gain-of-function research that was farmed out to China to keep it cheap and behind doors far from prying eyes in the US. You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.