Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

29Chief Economists Outlook Draghi, M. (2024). The Future of European Competitiveness Part A: A competitiveness strategy for Europe. European Commission. https://commission.europa.eu/topics/ strengthening-european-competitiveness/eu-competitiveness-looking-ahead_en. European Central Bank. (2024). Monetary policy decisions. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp241212~2acab6e51e.en.html. Eurostat. (2024, 6 December). GDP up by 0.4% and employment up by 0.2% in the euro area. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-06122024-ap. Fernández-Villaverde, J., Mineyama, T., & Song, D. (2024). Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect. National Bureau of Economic Research, (w32638; p. w32638). https://doi.org/10.3386/w32638. Gaspar, V. (2024, 26 December). Solving the Global Fiscal Policy Trilemma. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/23/imf-fiscal-affairs-global-policy-trilemma- economies/. Giles, C. (2024, 7 May). European interest rates are set to diverge from the US. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/f76884e9-bc66-4a5d-8445-4f842af5ef68. Global Trade Alert. (2024). Global Trade Policy Factbook 2024. https://www.globaltradealert. org/reports/162 Goldman Sachs. (2024, 20 November). The US economy is poised to beat expectations in 2025. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-us-economy-is-poised- to-beat-expectations-in-2025. Gopinath, G., Gourinchas, P .-O., Presbitero, A. F., & Topalova, P . (2025). Changing global linkages: A new Cold War? Journal of International Economics, 153, 104042. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042 Goudreau, C. (2024, 20 November). The impact of inflation on the 2024 presidential election. The Hub. https://hub.jhu.edu/2024/11/20/how-inflation-impacted-2024- election/. Hale, T., Alim, A. N., & Leahy, J. (2024, December 16). Weak China retail sales add to pressure on Beijing to lift economy. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ a1c39f1b-bf6c-4845-839c-81be269c4468. International Monetary Fund. (2024a). World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400281150.081. International Monetary Fund. (2024b). Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2024: Asia and Pacific: Resilient Growth but Higher Risks. https://doi. org/10.5089/9798400287220.086.