Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

4Chief Economists Outlook Contents Executive summary __________________________________________________________ 5 1. Downside risks have risen _________________________________________________ 7 2. All eyes on the US _______________________________________________________ 14 3. Global integration under growing strain ____________________________________ 18 Domestic and international policy drivers _____________________________________ 18 The challenges of fragmentation ____________________________________________ 20 4. A turbulent year for trade _________________________________________________ 23 Trade-war dynamics set to intensify _________________________________________ 23 The shift to services trade continues _________________________________________ 25 References _________________________________________________________________ 28 Contributors _______________________________________________________________ 33 Acknowledgements _________________________________________________________ 34 Cover: Unsplash