Climate Foresight 2025

performance, quality, and monitoring, can enhance trust, which benefits market participants and the environment (Spitz 2024). Transformational change must be addressed systemically, acknowledging varying degrees of impact and interconnections (Meadows 1999). Donella Meadows proposes intervention levels in a system to overcome endemic short-termism. In increasing order of effectiveness (also see Figure 4): ●Surface events: These easily observed intervent ions r ely on straightforward linear responses. While simple, they offer the lowest leverage as they are less integrated in the system. Surface events are often devoid of enablers for systemic transformationalchange. ●Patterns and trends: By monitoring trends and their feedback loops, change can be observed. Consistent, comparable, reliable, clear, efficient, and transparent disclosure can reinforce accountability and trust, while anticipating what might aris e t o plan ahead. ●Structures: Incentive structures, the regulatory environment, and governancearrangements can support, drive, and generate patterns of change, or produce adversebehaviors. Changing and disrupting structures can be highly effective to establish what change arises. ●Foresight: Organizations and governments that embrace foresight understand how long-term orientation can build shared visions and challenge short-term mindsets. ●Mental model s: Me ntal models are perceptions of the system, including how these drive the structures, patterns, and events. Influential stakeholders can challenge the mentalmodels that sustain our beliefs, values, or assumptions. Accordingly, changing structures and mental models results in larger changes throughout the system (Meadows 1999), as with integrating foresight. Such transformations are crucial toincentivising participation in VCMs. This argument is complem ented b y the Causal Layered Analysis framework, proposed by Inayatullah (2008) (Figure 5). Inayatullah (2008) argues that worldviews, values, and culture underpin complex subject matter, and therefore, shiftingworldviews is key to long-term systemic change. Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets, by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 14 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025