Climate Foresight 2025

Figure 3 - The Evolution and Connection Between Foresight, the AAA Framework, and Transformative Change (Spitz and Zuin 2021) 2. Effective Systemic Change The world’s most critical challenges are complex (Snowden and Boone 2007): climate change, societal paradigm shifts, and frontier technologies. Unlocking these requires systems-level change, not point solutions, and systems innovation is necessary to achieve long-term change(Wright and Meadows 2009). In the context o f VCMs, deeper systemic appreciation of the environmental and social integrity of carbon credits is critical (Kim et al. 2024). Proper regulatory structures and governance practices are necessary to rein in perverse incentives, promote transparency, and generate trust in carbon markets. However, many investors and corporations still have a short-termist, parochial understanding of carbon markets, driven by profit incentives (Berg et al. 2021). These approaches c an be counterproductive if they generate a lack of trust and credibility. Transforming VCMs through anticipatory governance, including a focus on conservation, Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets, by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 13 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025