Climate Foresight 2025

While investigations into misleading carbon credit programs have affected the global VCM industry, there may be an inflection point approaching in Brazil. As the Brazilian market matures with local ecosystem players, certain stakeholders could establish and maintain VCM credibility. While Brazil’s VCM has historically relied almost entirely on global certifiers such as Verra, Gold Standard, American Carbon Registry, and Climate Action Reserve, new domestic cer tifiers a re emerging. Emerging certifiers seek to address the local specificities of Brazil, and to rebuildtrust, transparency, and sustainable integrity of VCMs. LuxCS’ Protocol and Accreditation LuxCS’ verification process is called the Triple C Protocol (Certificacao de Créditos de CarbonoProtocol), a nature-based standard designed to ensure the measurable impact of carbon projects. The protocol defines the criteria for eligibility, validation and verifi cation o f carbon credit certification processes. It establishes a reference scenario, ensuring that projects creategenuine, rather than assumed, emissions reduction. The protocol is underpinned by principles that ensure the effectiveness of certified carbon credits - focused on accuracy, credibility,legitimacy, simplicity and transparency. The Protocol can operate in different Brazilian biomes, taking advantage of geographic and cultural proximity to red uce p roject certification costs, and allowing projects in drier regions to participate. This makes certification more accessible, promoting projects that reduce emissions, strengthen communities, and protect biodiversity. The Triple C Protocol’s ability to measure carbon in this manner is distinctive, and gives it a particular advantage over established carbon verification methods, which are typically based onavoided emissions. The Protocol covers activiti es l ike agriculture, orcharding, reforestation, and native forest conservation. These combined efforts aim to increase VCM participation in Brazil, accelerate positive environmental impact, and enhance the credibility of the market. LuxCS aims to follow the guidance of key organizations like Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM), and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMII). Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets , by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 25 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025