Fuelling the Future 2026

Future demand will vary by region and by sector, shaped largely by policy priorities and the costs of clean fuels compared to alternatives. For example, in the European Union, aviation and maritime demand is set to rise under blending mandates such as ReFuelEU aviation27 and FuelEU maritime.28 Moreover, in December 2025 the European Commission presented the Automotive Package granting greater flexibility in meeting CO2 reduction targets for road transport, allowing for the use of clean fuels.29 Efforts to coordinate global demand through international negotiation have seen mixed success; for example, the International Maritime Organization’s vote in October 2025 to postpone adoption of its net-zero framework by a year30 may delay maritime clean fuel uptake and increase the importance of cost competitiveness and blend-in potential for near-term market access.Despite low demand certainty driving higher risk and cost, underlying demand for clean fuels is rising. Demand may grow 2-3.5 times by 2040, with near-term growth driven by road blends and longer-term expansion driven by harder-to-abate applications in aviation, shipping and heavy industry (see Figure 6).31 The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently estimated that in an accelerated scenario – where all announced policies and targets are achieved and market barriers removed – demand could quadruple by 2035,32 consistent with the “Belém 4x” pledge, a joint commitment by Italy, Japan, India, Brazil and over 25 other countries to quadruple sustainable fuel production and use by 2035.33 IEA estimates that if all existing announced policies and targets are implemented and market barriers removed, demand for clean fuels could quadruple by 2035. Clean fuel demand is expected to increase significantly FIGURE 6 Notes: Only includes liquid and gaseous clean fuels; excludes power sector and district heating demand; excludes demand for fuels as chemical feedstocks. CAGR = compounded annual growth rate. Sources: Bain & Company analysis assessing feasible clean fuel demand growth based on current trajectory, published scenarios and Bain & Company supply and demand models.34 5.5 EJMaritimeAviation 2024 2030 2040IndustryCAGR (2024-2040) Share of clean fuels in final energy consumption (%)1% 1.5-2.5% 2-4%1.3-1.7x2.0-3.5x Road 2%30%34%14%Exajoules (EJ)Global clean fuels demand for final energy consumption by sector (EJ, 2024-2040) Readiness and scalability Readiness reflects both how mature the feedstock- to-fuel conversion technology is and how developed the supply chain is from feedstock sourcing to distribution and end-use integration. Figure 7 maps key pathways against these dimensions. Most pathways can be blended or used as drop-in fuels in existing engines and infrastructure. Some exceptions, such as ammonia and methanol for use in shipping require engine retrofits or modified terminal, storage and handling equipment. Similarly, carbon capture-based solutions in most locations require new infrastructure for safe transport and storage, although traditional point source technology is mature. While readiness varies significantly by fuel type, location and application, the difference in near-term scale-up potential largely stems from limitations with early-stage technology or insufficient access to sustainable feedstock. Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 14