Fuelling the Future 2026

Overview of technology and supply chain readiness of selected clean fuel pathways FIGURE 7 Notes: 1. Refers to the expanded use of hydrogen as a fuel in new applications, not considering use as chemical feedstock in existing industrial applications. TRL = technology readiness level. TRL is based on NASA’s TRL scale from 1 to 9, with two additional deployment levels: 10 = deployed reliably at scale, 11 = commercial in many markets. AtJ = alcohol-to-jet, FAME = fatty acid methyl ester, FT = Fischer-Tropsch, GFT = gasification and Fischer-Tropsch, HEFA = hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, HVO = hydrotreated vegetable oil. Source: Bain & Company. Technology readiness level (TRL) Supply chain and infrastructure readinessLower: new or adapted supply chains r equir edHigher: drop-in fuels with mature supply chains5Deployment-r eady Commer cially available fuels with existing supply chainsTech-pr oven – but supply chain gaps Mature technology but requires infrastructure or supply chain development for feedstock, end-use or in logistics 11 10 9 8 7 6E-methaneRenewable diesel (AtJ/GFT)Bioethanol (corn/sugar cane)Biodiesel (FAME)Renewable diesel (HEFA) Bio-SAF (HEF A) Early-stage – gaps in tech and infrastructure Requires technology and infrastructure developmentTech-emerging – infrastructure ready Requires technology development but can leverage existing supply chains for feedstock or end-useBlue ammoniaBiomethane E-SAF (FT)Cellulosic bioethanolBiomethanol (gasification)Clean hydrogen1 E-methanol E-ammonia Bio-SAF (AtJ) Liquid biofuels Liquid biofuels such as ethanol, FAME biodiesel and HVO/HEFA35 renewable diesel – produced from established agriculture-based feedstocks or waste oils – are commercially mature and widely used.36,37 However, their growth potential is limited by finite feedstock supply. Waste oils and lipids (e.g. used cooking oil, tallow) are already approaching supply limits and will likely face constraints by 2030, due to high demand given their strong emissions reduction potential, fit with mature clean fuel pathways and ability to meet EU feedstock criteria.38,39 Established agricultural crops have some growth potential in certain regions via yield optimization, but face restrictions and sustainability concerns if sourced from land competing with food or associated with adverse impacts. Intermediate crops and novel oil crops from degraded or marginal land have significant scale-up potential but require new agricultural practices.Advanced pathways that utilize emerging technologies and novel feedstocks (e.g. cellulosic ethanol, gasification/Fischer Tropsch, alcohol-to-jet) broaden the resource base; however, these are at early commercial stages and must overcome the challenge of aggregating diffuse residues of varying quality and composition. Biogas Biogas or biomethane from anaerobic digestion is technologically mature and produced close to feedstock sources (e.g. manure, organic waste, wastewater, landfill) and can be upgraded for grid injection or local use. Scalability is largely a logistics and sustainability challenge, related to the collection and preprocessing of feedstocks at sufficient scale, while avoiding methane leakage. Regions with established waste management systems and modern gas grids can expand volumes faster, as seen in Europe and the US. Elsewhere, progress relies on building out collection systems and upgrading infrastructure around effective use cases. Intermediate crops and novel oil crops from degraded or marginal land have significant scale-up potential but require new agricultural practices. Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 15