Fuelling the Future 2026
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Appendix
Note on Figure 3
Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential by 2050 is estimated based on uptake of clean fuels as a
share of total final energy consumption under mid-range energy transition scenarios, and assumed weighted
average emission reduction potential of 60 to 80% compared to conventional fuel intensity, evaluated by
sector (industry, road transport, shipping and aviation). Sources: see endnote.8
Notes on Figures 8 and 9
1. At-scale refers to estimated levelized production costs for nth-of-a-kind plants, at the point when a
certain technology or project configuration is considered commercially mature with limited cost improvement
potential. In contrast, first-of-a-kind plants are the first commercial deployment of new technology or a
certain project configuration.
Levelized production cost (LPC) is a metric that represents the average cost per unit of output over a
project’s entire lifetime, calculated by dividing the total lifetime costs by the total lifetime production. It is
used to compare different production technologies, by aggregating initial investment, operating costs and
fuel expenses into a single, comparable unit cost.
COD refers to commercial operation date, the date at which a project becomes fully operational and begins
to generate revenue.
2. Clean fuel costs include feedstock supplier margins (for non-integrated plants) but exclude producer
margins.
3. Fossil-fuel comparators include Jet A, diesel/gasoline, natural gas and bunker fuel, based on observed
2024 pre-tax wholesale prices. Sources: World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) – Petroleum & Other Liquids and the European Commission’s Weekly Oil
Bulletin.72
4. Clean-fuel cost ranges reflect regional variations in feedstock and operating conditions. Examples:
–HEFA SAF and renewable diesel (low: China sunflower oil; high: Europe advanced oil crops)
–FAME biodiesel (low: China sunflower oil; high: China palm fruit)
–Bioethanol (low: US corn; high: Europe corn)
–Biomethane (low: Middle East biowaste; high: Asia biowaste)
–E-fuels, such as e-SAF, e-methanol, e-ammonia, e-methane, green H2 and blue ammonia
(low: Middle East; high: Europe)
–Alcohol-to-jet and gasification/Fischer-Tropsch (low: US corn; high: Europe agricultural and
wood residues)
–Biomethanol (low: municipal solid waste; high: Middle East biowaste)
5. Forecasts are from Bain & Company analysis using feedstock price forecasts from Euromonitor and
proprietary cost and technology data from Bain & Company, supplemented by 2024 and 2025 Future of
Clean Fuels community workshops and industry interviews.73
Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market
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