Financial, professional, real estate services This sector’s heavy reliance on skilled labour and advanced technologies should position it to capitalize on emerging opportunities for productivity growth. Banking, for instance, could see a 30% productivity improvement from AI adoption in the next three years.49 In real estate, technologies such as digital twins and internet of things (IoT) integration are also driving efficiency and innovation. However, while the sector’s high capacity for technological and skills absorption could amplify productivity, this reliance also exposes the sector to risks, such as under the twin slowdown that characterizes the Productivity Drought scenario. Moreover, the sector has historically lagged in productivity growth and it contributed significantly to the post-financial crisis slowdown in advanced economies.50 Despite significant investments in digitalization over the years – above $1 trillion according to Accenture estimates51 – productivity improvements have been patchy, and many core operations in the financial sector, such as foreign- exchange transactions, can still rely on legacy processes and algorithms. The sector’s automation potential, at over 53% of work time, suggests opportunities to mitigate talent shortages and reduce repetitive tasks. In financial services alone, generative AI could save up to $158 billion in work hours annually in the US.52 However, legacy systems, complex decision-making structures and the need for analytical and creative skills will still require human-centric improvements, particularly in consumer-facing functions. Regional dynamics in the sector vary. Advanced economies, with established infrastructure and greater capital availability, are better positioned for technological adoption while developing economies could see higher relative gains from lower baselines. Urbanization and shifting investment flows could boost real estate services in all scenarios, particularly those favouring productivity growth. To capture these gains, businesses must align technology and talent strategies with agile business models. Significant challenges remain. According to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Survey 2024, nearly half of employers in the sector see resistance to change as the main barrier to transformation in the next five years, closely followed by outdated or inflexible regulatory frameworks (see Figure 6). Industry actors have also highlighted skills gaps and a lack of adequate data and technical infrastructure as barriers. Manufacturing The manufacturing sector’s patterns of productivity growth are poised to create divergence between innovation-intensive industries – such as aerospace, automotive, electronics and pharmaceuticals – and other segments. Advanced industries are growing three times faster than the broader manufacturing sector, driven by their ability to attract global talent and develop and integrate cutting-edge technologies.53 For instance, the automotive industry is using AI to develop autonomous vehicles and expand into service offerings like software subscriptions, with a projected increase in operating margins from 7% to 12%.54 Similarly, technological acceleration is likely to boost demand for electronics, semiconductors, specialized manufacturing equipment and supply chain innovations. Hardware spending is projected to account for 24% of total AI investments,55 underscoring the opportunity for manufacturers ready to scale. Nearly half of employers in the sector see resistance to change as the main barrier to transformation in the next five years. Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 20

Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025