The Global Risks Report 2024

Global Risks 2024: At a turning point1 The Global Risks Report analyses global risks over one-, two- and 10-year horizons to support decision-makers in adopting a dual vision that balances short- and longer-term risks. This chapter addresses the outlook for the first two time frames and examines selected risks that are likely to heighten by 2026. Chapter 2 addresses the 10-year outlook and how evolving risks may interact to create four potential high-risk outlooks for the world. The third and final chapter examines the concept of cooperation, showcasing different approaches to address global risks. The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has exposed cracks in societies that are being further strained by episodic upheaval. Yet the global system has thus far proved surprisingly resilient. A widely anticipated recession failed to materialize last year, and financial turbulence was quickly subdued, but the outlook remains uncertain. 1 Political strife and violent conflicts, from Niger and Sudan to Gaza and Israel, have captured the attention and apprehension of populations worldwide in some instances while attracting little focus in others. These developments have not yet led to wider regional conflicts – nor have they created globally destabilizing consequences such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the war in Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic – but their long-term outlook could bring further shocks.As we enter 2024, results of the Forum’s Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024 (GRPS) highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world over the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term (Figure 1.1). Surveyed in September 2023, the majority of respondents (54%) anticipate some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, while another 27% expect greater turbulence and 3% expect global catastrophic risks to materialize in the short term. Only 16% expect a stable or calm outlook in the next two years. The outlook is markedly more negative over the 10-year timeframe, with 63% of respondents expecting a stormy or turbulent outlook and less than 10% expecting a calm or stable situation. The world in 2024 1.1 Short and long-term global outlook FIGURE 1.1 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024. Short term (2 years)3% 27% 54% 15%1% Long term (10 years) Stormy : Global catastrophic risks looming Turbulent : Upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophes Unsettled : Some instability, moderate risk of global catastrophes Stable : Isolated disruptions, low risk of global catastrophes Calm : Negligible risk of global catastrophes17% 46% 29% 8% 1%"Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the following time periods?" NoteThe percentages in the graph may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down. Global Risks Report 2024 12