The Global Risks Report 2024

Crime and state fragility FIGURE 2.29 Source Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2023; Fund for Peace, 2023; Institute for Economics & Peace, 2023; Transparency International, 2023.NoteLarge, red dots in the top right indicate countries with high levels of fragility, corruption and criminality, and low levels of peacefulness. The y-axis depicts countries’ fragility scores, which are based on 12 key political, social and economic indicators outlined in the Fragile States Index 2023. A higher score (top) indicates a higher level of relative fragility. The x-axis reflects countries’ criminality scores, which are based on the Global Organized Crime Index 2023.A higher score (right) indicates more severe criminality conditions. The colour of data points represents countries’ perceived levels of public-sector corruption, based on the Corruptions Perceptions Index 2022. Low scores (shaded red), then, can be interpreted as indicating a highly corrupt country. The size of the dots depicts countries’ level of peacefulness, based on 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators outlined in the Global Peace Index 2023. A high score (large dot) can be interpreted as a country having a lower state of peace. Criminality scoreFragile states index (0-120) 2060 40120 0 0 2 4 6 10 880100 0 High Low 50 25 75 100Corruption Perception IndexGlobal Peace IndexSize Less peaceful More peacefulprocurement by states and state-backed actors to conduct espionage and foreign interference.127 The lines between organized crime, private militia and terrorist groups will also blur. Symbiotic partnerships between states and organized crime could grow, such as in acquiring the data of investigative journalists amid a broader crackdown on information flows (Chapter 1.3: False information), in return for concessions and bilateral agreements. State-sponsored groups may increasingly adopt blended business models, undertaking both licit and illicit activities. For example, the Wagner Group is a private military company that has been designated as a “transnational criminal organization” by the United States. The organization has a network of economic entities, including mining companies, particularly across Africa. 128 The presence of these groups could further fuel the cycle between conflict, fragility, corruption and crime, particularly where the state does not have the capacity to enforce legal rights. Not only can the presence of these groups drive lethal violence, but they also offer an economic pathway for illicit activities as other pathways stall. For example, climate change has led to a decline in arable land and fish stocks in Lake Chad, prompting some individuals to join armed groups as an alternative source of income. 129 Global Risks Report 2024 74